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Börsipäev 1. detsember

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  • Market Looks for Direction
    12/1/2005 9:17 AM EST

    "If I look confused it is because I am thinking."

    -- Samuel Goldwyn

    Market action has been a bit confused the past couple of days. The indices have drifted lower but without much conviction and we have had a peculiar mix of leadership and weakness. Although some of the recent momentum favorites have faltered, many of the semiconductors and speculative small-caps have acted well. Energy, commodity and steel stocks have also shown some relative strength while banking and retail have lagged.

    The market has simply looked confused and uncertain after a big run for almost the entire month of November. Everyone was aware we needed a rest and some consolidation but once it started, there was speculation about whether this was really the beginning of the end of the rally, and not just a pause.

    A market as strong as this one since mid-October is unlikely to suddenly roll over and go straight down, especially without any major negative catalysts. The greater likelihood is that a top won't come until the market retests highs and the bulls are disappointed a few times with the market's inability to follow through.

    Technically the indices are still in a strong uptrend. It will take more than the past couple days of lame action to turn the tide here. However, that doesn't mean you shouldn't be prudent and take some profits, particularly in extended stocks. On the other hand, there certainly is no good reason to be very bearish at this point. The trend is still up. Although there are some cracks in the market, we don't want to be overly anticipatory, and the action this morning is a good example why.

    We have a very strong open shaping up. Overseas markets are very strong, and the dollar is moving to a multiyear high. The European Central Bank has raised rates for the first time in many years. Although that was widely anticipated, it seems to be the main driver this morning because it indicates that the worldwide economy is indeed doing well because this hike was sparked by inflationary concerns.

    November retail sales numbers are out and the market seems to like them. Frankly, they don't look that good to me except for Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE), whose numbers were expected. There are disappointments from AEOS, COST, JWN, KSS, and TGT. If this early market strength is because of optimism about retail, I'm skeptical it will last.

    The past two days we have opened strong and faded. We have another strong open this morning. Will the bulls be able to keep it going this time?


  • UBS on käsile võtnud Health Care Plan sektori ja seda suhteliselt positiivse vaatega:

    UBS initiates Aetna (AET 92.49) with a Buy and $120 tgt, as they believe the co is best positioned going into 2006 from a commercial membership growth perspective while offering strong products

    UBS initiates Wellpoint Health Networks (WLP 76.83) with a Buy and $98 tgt, as they believe the co will generate above-average earnings growth and that investors will further appreciate the competitive advantages of their Blue Cross Blue Shield brand

    UBS initiates UnitedHealth Group (UNH 59.86) with a Buy and $75 tgt, as they believe the co is well positioned for Medicare opportunities, enrollment growth will come mainly in fee and government businesses and the co's continued focus on CDHP initiatives as well as acquisition integration

    UBS initiates Health Net (HNT 51.03) with a Buy and $65 tgt, as they believe the co has the greatest potential for earnings growth in the sector over the next several years as they execute a turnaround.

    UBS initiates Cigna (CI 112.52) with a Neutral and $127 tgt as they believe the co has refocused on improving client satisfaction and service which has stabilized membership for the most part

    UBS initiates Coventry Health Care (CVH 59.57) with a Neutral and $5 tgt, as they expect some moderation in sector leading EPS growth given industry leading margins and possible difficulty in locating M&A opportunities

    Lisaks on UBS positiivne ka kullasektori osas:
    UBS upgrades following gold stocks to Buy from Neutral: NEM, AEM, BGO, BVN, GG, GSS, IAG, KGC

    UBS is upgrading Newmont (NEM) and Agnico-Eagle (AEM) to Buy from Neutral. Firm states that inflation risks and steady increase in equity risk bolsters their case that gold and gold equities will perform over the next 12 months.  Firm observes that the equity risk premium suggets that investors are factoring greater risk into equity markets, this has historically been sopportive of gold.  Firm states that, despite a recent increase in exploration, they expect production growth will remain anemic at best over the next several years. Lack of supply reaction and cost pressures should support commodity fundamentals

    JMP Securities initiates 24/7 Real Media (TFSM 7.40) with a Market Perform, as they cite a strong growth outlook yet are concerned with rising competition, the impact on margins and valuation

    Deutsche Bank downgrades Aeropostale (ARO 24.87) to Hold from Buy on valuation

    Deutsche Bank initiates Shanda (SNDA 17.08) with a Sell, as they believe the co is sacrificing near-term revenues to retain users so that down the road it would be able to shift them to new games

    CIBC downgrades American Eagle (AEOS 22.76) to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform and removes its target price based on the dismal start to the holiday season. Eile õhtused uudised firma kohta: American Eagle Nov sames store sales +1.7% vs +10.8% Briefing.com consensus; lowers guidance (AEOS) : Co lowers Q4 EPS guidance to $0.70-0.72 from $0.73-0.75 vs the $0.74 consensus

    Lehman downgrades Dow Chemical (DOW 46.24) to Equal-Weight from Overweight and cuts their tgt to $45 from $52, based on lower expectations for the ethylene and propylene chains in 2006, after a likely peak for both in FY05

    UBS downgrades Qualcomm (QCOM 45.47) to Neutral from Buy on valuation

    Digitimes reports most major Taiwan-based panel makers are optimistic about TV panel demand next year and have forecast that the market will rise to 42-44 million units, according to the companies. AU Optronics (AUO) expects the market to nearly double to 44 million units next year, up from 23 million this year while LCD TV demand will jump from 20 million units this year to 35 million next year. Chi Mei Optoelectronics also expects the LCD TV panel market to grow more than 80% to 42 million next year. Chunghwa Picture Tubes estimates LCD TV panel demand will reach 44 million units and LCD TV demand will reach 36 million next year.


    ECB raises rates by 1/4 pt as expected to 2.25% (tegemist siis esimese kergitamisega 5 aasta jooksul)

    Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.5% consensus

    Personal Spending +0.2% vs +0.2% consensus

    Initial Claims 320K vs 325K consensus

  • ONNN paistab huvitav

    Käive tugev...hypelik

    briefingult ka selline komment päeval:

    Cost is king for Xbox 360 power-management discretes, and ON Semiconductor has been crowned, says iSuppli - Digitimes (ONNN) 5.80 : Digitimes reports much attention has been paid to the some of the bigger chips in the new Microsoft Xbox 360 video game console, like IBM's microprocessor and ATI Technologies' (ATYT) graphics processor. However, another supplier has made a major impact on the new video-game console with some less glamorous but no less-important chips: ON Semiconductor, which is providing key power-management discretes for the console. A dissection of the Xbox 360 conducted by iSuppli's Teardown Analysis Service reveals that ON Semiconductor has the bulk of that MOSFET business-by far. ON Semiconductor also won most of the controller and power IC business in the Xbox 360. ON Semiconductor now has more than US$6 worth of parts in every Xbox shipped, noted Chris Ambarian, senior analyst, power-management, for iSuppli. If ON remains the sole-source for these devices, the company stands to garner US$60-70 million in revenue from the Xbox 360 in 2006, representing a significant boost to the company's power-management business. 

  • Mhhh. Kas päevaülevaateid on võimalik ka eesti keels lugeda? Kui seda va inglise keelt lugeda, siis paari lause järel juba enam ei viitsi, kuna ikka on mingeid võõraid sõnu seas ja läheb aeglaselt. Börsiinfo peaks olema kiirelt loetav. Või mis?
  • See info ongi kiirelt ja väga kergelt loetav... palju neid võõraid sõnasid ikka saab olla? Sageli ju üks-ja-sama jutt stiilis "võib minna üles, aga võib minna ka alla, loomulikult võib ka paigal seista" :D
  • Lisaks, kui inglise keeles lugemine väsitab kiirelt, ei tohiks probleemi olla, kuna portfelli maht peaks kahanema piisava kiirusega, et võimaldada üsna pea turult lahkumist.
  • mul 1 küsimus, nimelt kas eesti gaasi aktsiatega ka kuskil tehinguid tehakse ja mis hind võiks sel juhul olla?
  • Tehingustatistika Eesti Gaasi B-aktsia. Internetipanka võiksid ka sisse logida. Vaata mida pank hinnaks annab.

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