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  • Not Betting on a Selloff

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/1/2006 8:59 AM EDT

    "No man is happy without a delusion of some kind. Delusions are as necessary to our happiness as realities."

    -- John Christian Bovee
    It's easy to delude yourself in the current market environment. Anyone who is positive certainly must be deluding themselves to some degree. After all, commodity and oil prices continue to rise, the dollar is weak, bonds are struggling and plenty of stocks have stumbled following their earnings reports. How can we possible feel good about this market unless we are deceiving ourselves about the degree of the problems that exist?

    But the reality is that the S&P 500 and the DJIA are within spitting distance of multiyear highs and the Nasdaq is less than 2% from its highest point since 2001. Aren't the bears -- who are so focused on the negatives -- also deceiving themselves about this market when so many stocks continue to act well? Despite the pockets of weakness, there are also some substantial pockets of strength. In fact, that is what helps make the market particularly confusing. Although we can find plenty of poor action, there's also much that is positive.

    The truth about this market is neither as good as the bulls would have us believe nor as bad as the bears keep telling us. There certainly is much focus on macroeconomic negatives recently and many are absolutely, positively convinced that the hammer will fall at any moment. On the other hand, there are positives that keep that from happening: the strength in banks, the uncertain state of sentiment and the fact that the market continues to hold up well in the face of scorn and ridicule.

    What investors need to do is make sure they are cognizant of the bifurcated state of the market. Don't be too quick to embrace the pessimism when there are so many things that continue to act well, but also don't be too fast to throw caution to the wind as big-cap technology, biotechnology and other sectors struggle.

  • Jah, USA-s toimub kauplemine tavapäraselt.
  • Oskab keegi õelda,miks investeerimispangad( LEH,GS) täna suures miinuses on
  • Tundub, et kogu sektor löögi all ning kasumi võtmine on andnud ka lühikesteks müüjatele võimaluse. Lisaks voolas reedel raha antud sektorist suurtesse pangaaktsiatesse (Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Banc of America). Raha on väljumas maaklerfirmadest ning voolamas pankadesse.
  • Kas see tähendab,et peale mõningate investeerimispnkade tugevaid tulemusi ei usuta uues kvartalis enam käibe või kasumi suurt kasvu?
  • Pigem on sektor aastaga nii tugevalt tõusnud, et suuremat liikumist üles on juba raske uskuda, raha otsib paremat tootlust.
  • Viimasel kauplemistunnil vägagi äkiline allamüük, paistab et siin mängus kuulujutud, et Bernanke ja Fed ei taha mitte intressimäärade tõstmises pausi teha.
    CNBC commentator says Bernanke told her over the weekend that the media and markets basically got it wrong last week in speculating that the Fed is done raising interest rates. He said it is worrisome to him that anyone would think of him as dovish. He said that he and FOMC members were trying to creat some flexibility for the Fed reserve, and that the Fed may pause but the data will dictate wheter more rate hikes will take place. (Also see 15:18 comment)

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