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  • Concentrate on the Here and Now

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/12/2006 9:03 AM EDT

    "A preoccupation with the future not only prevents us from seeing the present as it is but often prompts us to rearrange the past."

    -- Eric Hoffer

    Intraday reversals like we saw yesterday have a tendency to reinforce existing sentiment. Bulls tell us that things really aren't all that bad and the bounce is the market simply starting to recognize that the negativity has gotten extreme. The bears, on the other hand, dismiss the move as nothing more than a blip within a much bigger and uglier picture, and assure us that anyone who believes the worst is over is in for a rude awakening.
    Those with a bullish disposition find positives in the market action while those with a bearish inclination see the negatives. Even though they may try to be objective, neither side truly is because they have a stake in being correct. For some, its money that they have on the line that drives their views, and for others it's the need to be proven correct that prods them to maintain a certain market opinion.

    This preoccupation with the long-term health of the market can be a major stumbling block when trying to make money in the short term. We end up seeing all events and market moves through the prism of our market bias. All rallies are meaningful and worthy of embrace to the dogmatic bull, while they are objects of scorn and ridicule to the perma-bear.

    None of us is ever going to be totally objective in our evaluation of the market's health but we can gain balance by not becoming overly enchanted with long-term theories. The big picture stuff, especially when we become "true believers" in a theory, colors our thinking and robs us of good short-term opportunities.

    My mantra is to stay focused on the action that is in front of us, right now, today, and forget trying to predict what might happen six months down the road. If we deal with what is on our screens right now, the future, whether bleak or rosy, will take care of itself.

    Although the reversal yesterday was impressive, this is a skittish and uncertain market and it is demonstrating its lack of confidence with a slightly negative open. The buyers still have plenty of worries, and missing out on the upside isn't one of them.

    I believe this nervousness and worry with earnings season approaching does help create conditions for some upside but this is the point where we have to focus on the action in front of us and not try to predict how it will play out. So for now, let's see if semiconductors can build a little more momentum and whether the Nasdaq can hold support levels.

    We have a soft open this morning. There is a negative reaction to earnings news from DNA and the trade deficit data is driving the dollar a little higher. Overseas markets were mixed, gold is trading up and oil is quiet in front of inventory reports later this morning.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stock mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.

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