Börsipäev 16. oktoober - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 16. oktoober

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  • Täna uudis, et Merck on saavutamas oodatud FDA aktsepti oma suhkrutõve ravimile Januvia, mille 2009 aasta müügituluks prognoositakse ca 1 miljardit dollarit. Viimane FDA aktsept Merki vähivormi CTCL ravimile Zolinza tuli paar nädalat tagasi. Zolinza müüki prognoositakse 2009 aastaks ca $175 milj.

    MRK eelturul ca 4% plussis.

    Financial Times reports Merck is expected to receive US regulatory approval as early as Monday for its new breakthrough diabetes drug Januvia. It is the first of a new type of oral diabetes drugs called DPP-IV inhibitors, which help the body to better regulate sugar and insulin production. It is expected to be a blockbuster with more than $1 bln in annual sales and is critical to the US drugmaker's five-year profit growth forecasts. Its approval by the FDA will soon be followed by the expected approval next month of Galvus, a similar drug by Novartis (NVS). The race to gain approval for Januvia and Galvus has positioned them as bitter rivals. However, the opportunity for both drugs is more likely to involve taking business away from some of the most popular oral diabetes drugs on the mkt. One senior pharmaceutical exec familiar with the situation said the "real target" for Januvia and Galvus would be to replace an older class of drugs known as TZDs. That would put Januvia and Galvus on a collision course with Avandia, the blockbuster by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), and Actos, sold by Eli Lilly (LLY) and Takeda of Japan. The drugs could also limit sales of Eli Lilly and Amylin Pharmaceuticals' (AMLN) new diabetes drug Byetta, according to analysts.
  • Beware the Market's High Expectations

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/16/2006 8:44 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Oft expectation fails, and most oft where most it promises; and oft it hits where hope is coldest; and despair most sits."

    -- William Shakespeare

    A slew of important third-quarter earnings reports are on the schedule this week and they will have a significant effect on short-term market direction. The story of earnings is the story of expectations. Earnings are not inherently bad or good. A company that loses money may actually see its stock rise if it performs better than expected while a company that produces great numbers can be stung if the market was looking for something better.

    It really isn't particularly difficult to understand. If we expect too much we have a greater chance of being disappointed but the great difficulty in the market is trying to measure expectations. It can be nearly impossible to really measure what the market is hoping to see. We hear about "whisper numbers," which are the supposed to be "real" expectations of the market, but that is nothing more than someone's educated guess and not very reliable.

    One easy but very unreliable way to measure the level of expectations is to watch price action in the days and weeks prior to an earnings reports. If a stock trades up sharply, it is a pretty safe assumption that expectations are increasing. The higher a stock moves prior to a report the higher the expectations and the greater the danger of disappointment. This phenomenon is so well know in the market that it has a name: sell the news. It simply refers to the tendency of market players to sell a stock they have been holding when expected good news hits.

    I mentioned on Friday a number of stocks reporting this week, including IBM, MOT, INTC and NVLS, that have been trending up strongly in recent weeks and may be in danger of a sell the news reaction. Several folks wrote to me and commented these stocks are still "cheap," so even though they are up sharply they can still run further. I have no idea if these stocks are cheap, but that isn't the issue -- the issue here is one of psychology. The "cheapness" of the stocks is a function of expected earnings. So if expectations aren't met the stock is in danger of declining no matter how cheap some may consider it.

    One of the issues to keep in mind as earnings unfold is that even if we do see some sell the news reactions we are in such a hot market that there are plenty of buyers willing to buy pullbacks. An initial sell off on a disappointing report may simply end up being a "buying opportunity," especially if we remain awash in liquidity, which seems to be the case lately.

    As we kick off the new week I can remember few times when the mood felt so uniformly positive. Bears are scared and the consensus seems to be that this market is going to keep on running as more and more jump on the train. It certainly isn't a good idea to try to anticipate when a speeding locomotive will stop but as we enter earnings season we need to keep in mind the role that high expectations are going to play.

    We have a slightly positive open shaping up this morning. Overseas markets continue their march higher, oil and gold are steady, and the news wires are relatively quiet.

    At the time of publication, De Porre had no positions in stocks mentioned, although holdings can change at any time.
  • Lisan ka tänased suurimad liikujad siia:

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    JLG +33% (to be acquired by OSK), OPEN +23% (co to go private), ESLR +14% (announces $100 mln sales agreement), RVBD +12% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), TAYD +7.2% (seen as a sympathy play on Hawaiian earthquake), DESC +7.1% (to install system in NY City), CRNT +7.2% (extends recent momentum), LTON +6.1% (to partner with MTV China), ARNA +5.1% (Cramer mentions on Mad Money), NEOL +4.3% (extends last week move +34%), MAT +4.3% (reports Q3), NAPS +4.2% (positive ThinkEquity comments), FNSR +4% (on CNBC, Needham analyst calls it his favorite fiber opticks play), NABI +3.8% (positive clinical results), DVAX +3.5% (recovers a bit following last week's 10% decline), LOW +2.6% (Goldman upgrade), NICE +2.1% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money), INTC +1.8% (co says Q4 revs should be better than expected - Bloomberg.com; also Cramer says to buy ahead of Q3 report tomorrow), AA +1.4% (Pru upgrade).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    SUMT -18% (guides EPS below consensus), MTSN -3.5% (guides Q3 EPS lower), AMLN -3.1% (Merck diabetes drug is set to win US approval - FT; seen as negative for AMLN), OMRI -1.8% (announces clinical data), ANAD -1.6% (Morgan Keegan says Friday's rumor that SWKS makes a bid for ANAD appears unlikely), AMZN -1.6% (ThinkEquity downgrade), RIMM -1.4% (delays 10-Q on options probe), HD -1.1% (Goldman downgrade).
  • Paar minutit tagasi jõudis Briefingusse selline positiivne arvamusavaldus Greatbatchi(GB) kohta Lazardilt. Greatbatch on ka LHV PRO investeerimisidee, kust saab ettevõttest juba pikemalt lugeda.
    GB Wilson Greatbatch: Buy ahead of broader realization that plant closing will lead to better opertating margins - Lazard (23.91 +0.32)

    Lazard says to buy GB head of broader realization that imminent closure of Carson City operating plant and mid-2007 closure of the Columbia plant lead to greater operating-margin improvements than Street predicts for Y07. Firm is increasingly confident in the three margin-growing impacts in Y07 because the Carson City plant will likely be turned off imminently pending one of GB's customers' regulatory approvals. Firm believes the earnings benefit from likely above-expectations operating margins more than offsets the risk of losing the ICD battery business of Boston Scientific (BSX), a risk that has been weighing on GB over the last couple of months.
  • te panite küll PWEI enne kinni, kuid küsin siiski:
    milline tase oleks paras juba enne võimalikku ülevõtmist realiseerimiseks
    hetkel läheneb 36'le, tgt oli 34-41

    veel küsiks,
    miks teil sellistel ideedel stopid, tuleks ehk volatiilsusele ruumi anda ja altpoolt hoopis juurde osta
    idee ka nagu pikemaajalisem, mitte mõne nädalane ning peale langust ei muutunud tegelt midagi peale selle, et risk-reward suhe muutus oluliselt paremaks. Idee iseenesest väga tugeva põhjaga.
  • PWEI suhtes samad mõtted. Eks soovituse tegemise järgselt mõningad nüansid lisandusid - SEC uurimine ja analüütikute lahtilaskmine, kuid meelsuse paranedes+Pirate juurdeostud oleks võinud idee uuesti avada. Ise pikk. Eesmärk 45+, kas siis läbi short squeezi või ülevõtmispakkumise.
  • To speedy & velvo,

    Nii PWEI kui ILA puhul panin stopid juurde n-ö 'just in case' stsenaariumi jaoks. PRO all olen muidugi omapoolseid kommentaare jaganud, et miks nende ideede puhul vahepeal niivõrd suur lühiajaline kukkumine tuli ja volatiilsus kasvas ning ei tahaks foorumis olukorra tagamaadesse väga sügavalt juurduda.

    Kuid nii palju siis selgituseks, et tol hetkel ei tundunud mõistlik niivõrd volatiilses olukorras mõlemat, sarnastel alustel põhinevat, ideed enam korraga lahti hoida. PRO lugejad teavad, et pärast PWEI kiiret langust läbi stopi liigutasin ILA puhul niigi omapoolset stoppi, üritades ideele anda veelgi rohkem ruumi volatiilsuseks, ning soovitasin võimaluse korral positsiooni kindlasti mitte müüa, sest riski-tulu suhe tundus sellises paanikaolukorras üha atraktiivsemaks muutuvat ning rõhutasin PRO all, et iseenesest ei olnud idee alused kuidagi mingil määral muutunud. Iseenesest õige - jah, sedasorti pikemaajalistele ideedele tulekski pisut rohkem stoppidega ruumi anda, kuid usun, et 10%-line stop oli niigi suur juba ja teatud piiril tuleb lihtsalt kahjum vastu võtta. Samuti sai idee juurde kohe alguses kirja, et stopid tuleks sellises 'data-dependent' situatsioonis igalühel vastavalt oma pingetaluvusele ja kogemustele siiski endal lõplikult määrata.

    PWEI koha pealt siis:

    Iseenesest olen ettevõtte ümber valitseva olukorra suhtes olnud positiivne. Ning seda ka languse ajal, kuid nagu eespool öeldud, põhinevad mõlemad sealsed ideed väga sarnastel alustel ning võib ehk isegi öelda, et tegu juba maitse küsimusega, millist aktsiat omada(kuigi ettevõtted ise on totaalselt erinevad). See ka üks põhjustest, miks uuesti ametlikult ideed ei avanud. Positiivne on kindlasti see, et on ju Pirate'ki ostnud PWEI aktsiat kõik järjestikused viimased 10 börsipäeva - ja seda hoolimata fondi ümber hiljuti valitsenud segadusest.

    Samas, aktsia on nüüd($35,65) peale sell-offi juba üle 20% tõusnud, mistõttu mitte ei üllataks mind siin kasumivõtt ja seega ise praeguse info põhjal hetkel PWEI'sse sisenemist atraktiivseks ei pea.

    Edu turgudel,
  • Tänud tähelepanemise eest!
    Mõningane korrektsioon ja toetus 32$ juures oleks päris kena.
  • ühest turuülevaatest tuttav CNXT murdis langustrendi

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