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Börsipäev 21. detsember

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  • December 21, 2006


    Starman’s fixed line subs reach 30,000. The Estonian cableTV provider Starman said the number of its fixed line subscribers surpassed 30,000 line in December. In its coverage area, the company has market share of 22% (in total Estonia, its ca 10%). Given that Starman added 3k subs in Q3 and has already added 4k in Q4, they are nicely on track with our forecast. Although revenue from fixed line is not huge, most of the new subs are actually triple play customers – i.e. revenue growth from Internet and TV should be solid as well.

    Apranga (Acc) aims to grow by 40% in 2007. The Lithuanian clothing retailer Apranga released its guidance for 2007. The company expects sales to grow by 40% to LTL 415m (incl. VAT), and a Pre-Tax profit of LTL 31m (margin 8.8%). The company plans to open at least 20 new stores, equal to an expansion growth of 29%, i.e. the expected like-for-like growth is around 10%. We are looking for 2007 sales of LTL 351m, equal to an increase of 30%, and a Pre-Tax profit of LTL 25.5m (margin 8.0%). Our estimates will be raised somewhat. The valuation on the company’s forecast implies a PER 2007 of 16.9x, which is quite attractive compared to the Baltic average PER 2007 of 19.1x.

    Good day for Baltic construction companies. All three Baltic construction companies announced new orders yesterday. Merko will build a 10-storey office building in Tallinn for EEK 116m (EUR 7.4m). The works are scheduled to be completed by January 2008. Eesti Ehitus concluded a contract to perform the construction works of a 72-apartment residential building in Tallinn. The value of the contract is EEK 72m (EUR 4.65m) and works are to be completed by December 2007. The Lithuanian construction company PST will perform construction works of Utena Regional Waste Management System development in total value of LTL 61m (EUR 17.6m).

    Casino on sale. Estonian real estate businessman Margus Reinsalu has put his casino company Kristiine Kasiino on sale. Kristiine Kasiino operates 11 casinos in Estonia. The possible buyers could be Olympic Casino or Russian Ritzio (operates 2 casino chains in Estonia). Olympic’s representatives said they are watching the situation closely but could not comment anything else. Kristiine Kasiino could be worth approximately EEK 250m (EUR 16m).

    TEO (Acc) acquires DTT provider. Lithuanian telecom provider TEO signed an agreement to acquire 100% of Mikrovisatos TV to boost its digital terrestrial television service. ”We [TEO] are actively developing the network of DTT signal transmission in Lithuania. Therefore TEO’s objective to acquire a company operating on the TV re-broadcasting market is the implementation of our strategy,” Arunas Šikšta, from TEO said. The deal should be completed in Feb 2007. Mikrovisatos TV holds 8.2% of the multi-channel subscription TV market.

    Estonian producer prices up 5.4% in November. According to Estonian Statistical Office, producer prices grew by 5.4% y-o-y in November. The price index was mainly influenced by the increase in the manufacture of wood and wood products and building materials. Estonian consumer prices went up by 4.6% y-o-y over the same period.

  • Novembrikuu Otsimootorite turuosad by Nielsen Netratings:
    Google 3.097 Billion searches, 31% year-over-year growth, 49.5% Share of Searches
    Yahoo! 1.518 Billion searches, 27% year-over-year growth, 24.3% Shares of Searches
    MSN/Live 515 million searches, -12% year-over-year growth, 8.2% Share of Searches
    AOL 389 million searches, 11% year-over-year growth, 6.2% Share of Searches
    Ask.com 159.6 million searches, 33% year-over-year growth, 2.6% Share of Searches

  • AG Edwards initiates Broadcom (BRCM 33.26) with a Buy and $41 tgt, as they believe the co should be able to take share in newly addressed markets such as integrated digital TVs and mobile phone semiconductors and this in turn should allow BRCM to grow at a much faster rate than the co's $39 bln served available market

    Stifel Nicolaus upgrades LifePoint Hospitals (LPNT 33.26) to Buy from Hold and $39 tgt, based on valuation and a comfort level with the co's accounting for bad debt after performing a detailed analysis of the sector

    HSBC downgrades Mastercard (MA 97.51) to Underweight from Neutral and $77 tgt

    Jefferies initiates Amdocs (DOX 37.73) with a Buy and $44 tgt, based on several specific upcoming events that could drive upside to their estimates including an accelerated Sprint migration, Amdocs 7 converged billing product launch, carrier consolidation, new cable and satellite customer wins and growth in content services

    Citigroup initiates BlackRock (BLK 146.86) with a Buy. We are initiating coverage of BlackRock with a Buy/Medium Risk rating and a$185 target price (25% upside). Our '07 & '08 EPS estimates are $7.05 & $8.25respectively (slightly above consensus & at high-end of mgmt guidance).

    JP Morgan upgrades Circuit City (CC 19.13) to Overweight from Neutral

    Friedman, Billings upgrades eResearchTechnology (ERES 6.42) to Outperform from Market Perform adn $8 tgt, based on valuation and improving 2007 prospects

    First Albany initiates Blackboard (BBBB 27.58) with a Strong Buy and a $37 tgt saying the co is poised to pass integration course and graduate to record cash generation

    Credit Suisse upgrades Best Buy (BBY 48.36) to Outperform from Neutral with a $59 tgt saying they believe that the focus on this stock has moved too much into the slight shortfall in Q3, which undervalues the solid growth for this year, for 2007, as well as the strong balance sheet this co enjoys. The firm says most of all, there are but a handful of quality growth names in their universe and the recent stock decline has made BBY the cheap stock in that group

    LAMR Lamar Advertising initiated with a Buy at Citigroup- tgt $74

    GIS General Mills reports Q2 (Nov) earnings of $1.08 per share, $0.05 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.03; revenues rose 5.3% year/year to $3.47 mln vs the $3.42 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $3.09-3.13, including $0.12 from stock based compensation, vs. previous guidance of $3.03-3.08, including $0.11-0.12 of stock based compensation. CEO reports, "Our results continue to reflect a combination of broad-based sales growth and margin expansion. In the second quarter, all three of our business segments posted good unit volume gains and even stronger growth in net sales. Gross margin improved and segment operating profits were up 11 percent for the period. This solid performance followed a good first quarter and puts us ahead of our plan targets for the first half of the year."

  • Chain Deflator-Final +2.2% vs +1.8% consensus

    GDP-Final +1.9% vs +2.2% consensus
  • Shark hoiatab pühadeaegse õhukese kauplemisaktiivsuse eest, kus liikumised võivad tulla ootamatud ja olla võimendatud 'momentum' mängijate, lühikeseksmüüjate ja päevakauplejate poolt, kes igaval päeval ootavad turu mingile poole kaldumist, et siis oma positsioon võtta.
    Ja viisakalt tuletab meelde, et pühade oste ei tohiks unustada tegemata jätta, et omale kalleid inimesi meeles pidada...

    Careful: Thin Trading

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/21/2006 8:16 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    The woods are lovely, dark and deep.
    But I have promises to keep,
    And miles to go before I sleep

    --Robert Frost

    The conclusion of the year always produces an odd mix of pressures. Many market players are under great pressure to add on some additional gains, position their portfolios for the final accounting and conclude the year on a positive note. But for many others, especially for those who have done well, the year is essentially over, and the primary goal it to make sure nothing messes up what has been done in the 11.75 months that have preceded.

    For the market, that means we have pockets of listless, random action interspersed with aggressive attempts to rack up some quick gains. The thin market, the slowing news flow and the holiday mood all combine to keep things random and more tricky than usual.

    One thing that often occurs in thin trading is sudden spikes in either direction. Many market participants are sitting idly, without any strong market bias and waiting for a move to develop. Once they see the stirrings of action, they jump in and drive it further, and that attracts more "trend followers" who simply want some quick profits.

    Both the overall market and individual stocks are subject to this condition during the holidays. Generally it's the smaller-caps that are more active, but this year seems a bit different in that regard with big-caps being the primary leaders and smaller stocks showing little life.

    The thin trading also results in traders who target highly shorted stocks for squeezes. A prime example is Mamma Com (MAMA - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), which had some minor news recently but has been driven straight up for no reason other than the fact that there are shorts who are trapped and pushing it higher as they are squeezed.

    So be careful as we wind up the year. The trading can be fun and profitable, but it can also be frustrating and dangerous. Play small, be quick and make sure you have your holiday shopping finished or it won't matter how much money you make.
  • Market Summary

    Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -0.09%, Nikkei +0.22%, Sensex +0.33%, Shanghai -1.28% and Taiwan -0.36%.

    Stocks to watch for Thursday, December 21

    • Accenture (ACN) reported first-quarter net earnings of $284.2 million, or 46 cents a share, compared with $214.9 million, 36 cents a share, in the same period last year, on the back of strong sales.
    • Citigroup (C) denied new claims by Australia in a conflict-of-interest case against the U.S. investment bank.
    • Delta Air Lines (DALRQ) official creditors' committee said it supported the air carrier's decision to file its proposed reorganization plan, but said the committee "will continue to consider potential alternatives in order to maximize the ultimate recoveries for the unsecured creditors in the Delta bankruptcy."
    • FedEx (FDX) warned of a profit drop, blaming a gap between changing fuel prices and surcharges. Some analysts cited a slowing economy.
    • Finish Line (FINL) said it swung to a third-quarter net loss, as expenses rose, of $2.98 million, or 6 cents a share. During the same period in the prior year, the retailer reported net income of $845,000, or 2 cents a share.
    • Heico (HEI) said fourth-quarter net income rose, as revenue gained, to $9.32 million, or 35 cents a share, from $6.63 million, or 25 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year. Analysts had expected per-share income of 31 cents.
    • Herman Miller (MLHR) reported second-quarter net earnings of $36.6 million, or 56 cents a share, compared with $27.9 million, or 40 cents a share, in the same period last year, on the back of record-high orders.
    • IBM will no longer grant outside directors stock options and instead will pay them annual $200,000 retainers. The move underscores a broader turn away from options rewards amid scandals.
    • Jabil Circuit (JBL) posted fiscal first-quarter revenue of $3.2 billion, up 33% from $2.4 billion during the year-ago period. The provider of electronic manufacturing services said it expects second-quarter revenue of $2.75 billion to $2.85 billion, and fiscal 2007 revenue growth of about 20%.
    • Joy Global (JOYG) said it has named Michael Sutherlin as chief executive and president. Sutherlin, who has served as president of Joy Mining Machinery since 2003, will assume his new role on Dec. 26.
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) said the audit committee review of the company's stock-options grants is complete, and has determined that there were "numerous instances in which grant dates were chosen...so as to give favorable prices."
    • Merck (MRK) said the Food and Drug Administration approved Invanz, an injectable antibiotic, for the prevention of surgical site infections after elective colorectal surgery.
    • Nike (NKE) said its fiscal second-quarter profit rose to $325.6 million, or $1.28 a share, from $301.1 million, or $1.14 a share, in the year-ago period.
    • Paychex (PAYX) reported second-quarter net earnings of $132.7 million, or 35 cents a share, compared with $112.6 million, or 30 cents a share, in the same period last year, on the back of strong revenue from its human resource services segment.
    • PMC-Sierra (PMCS) cut its quarterly sales target due to slower demand for its chips used in high-speed Internet networking gear and data-storage equipment. PMC-Sierra forecast fourth-quarter revenue in the range of $100 million to $105 million, down from its prior outlook of $105 million to $112 million.
    • Publicis' (PUB) $1.3 billion acquisition of Digitas (DTAS) will fill a major gap in the French ad-holding company's portfolio as it seeks to take advantage of the Internet sector.
    • Siemens AG's (SI) Medical Solutions unit said it will begin clinical trials under an investigational new drug application submitted to the Food and Drug Administration for an imaging biomarker that could potentially identify Alzheimer's disease prior to the onset of noticeable symptoms.
    • 3Com (COMS) said the second-quarter net loss narrowed, as revenue gained, to $3.52 million, or a penny a share, from a net loss of $10.7 million, or 3 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.
    • Ultratech (UTEK) revised its fourth-quarter outlook to a loss of 25 cents to 30 cents a share from its prior view of a loss of 10 cents to 15 cents a share.
    • Wet Seal (WTSLA) said it now expects its fiscal December same-store sales to rise from 1% to 3%, as compared with an increase in the low- to mid-single digit range as previously announced.
  • Tehnilise poolepealt selline pilt. Panen täna pildile juurde paar teistsugust indikaatorit. Accumulation/Distribution Line, mis käitub sisuliselt nagu OBV ja CMF ning näitab, kas käive toetab liikumist. Näeme, et indikaator on viimase külgsuunalise liikumise ajal langemas ning kui lisada juurde ka 20 päeva libiseva keskmise, siis tehtud on ka negatiivne crossover. Samas 50 päeva libisevast keskmisest asutakse veel ülalpool. Stockchartis tuleb Acc/Dist kastis keskmise arvutamise periood ise käsitsi juurde lisada. Kui varem olen trendi jälgimiseks vaadelnud peamiselt Wilderi DMI'd, siis allumisele pildile on lisatud Aroon. Tähendavad sisuliselt sama asja, kuid arvutamine ja signaalid on teinekord erinevad. Näeme, et aroon UP ehk roheline joon on käinud korraks allpool 70 taset, mis näitab, et tõusutrend on järele andmas. Ka aroon Dn on käinud korra ülalpool 30 taset, kuid on liikunud tagasi neutraalsesse tsooni. Kui need kaks indikaatorit on ristumas ja vahetamas kohti, siis on tegu külgsuunalise liikumise või konsolideerumisega ning kohtade vahetamine registreerib trendi muutuse. Aroon Oscillaator näitab sama asja ühe joonega.
    Kuna indeks on langenud alla 20 päeva libiseva keskmise ning edasine tõus paistab indikaatorite järgi vähe suutlik, siis näeksin esimest toetust 2400 piirl ning 50 päeva libiseval keskmisel.

    Eelturul futuurid plusspoolel. Toornafta kergelt alla tulnud.

  • Teema, mis oli aktuaalne umbes aasta tagasi, kuid on nüüd uuesti üles kerkinud:
    Iran seeks oil payment in currencies other than US dollar due to dollar weakness, according to oil official

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    PRCS +145% (to be acquired by GSK), DPHIQ.PK +38% (hedge fund proposes reorganization), HORC +20% (to be acquired), SKYF +16% (announces merger), PNTR +15% (gudies higher; sees acquisitions), MAMA +9% (momentum continues; stock up nearly 200% in two weeks since announcing it acquired a video search site), DEPO +11% (announces litigation victory against Ivax), RPRX +9% (positive clinical data), ESCL +8.6% (extends momentum, stock +130% in two days, short squeeze), NSTK +7% (positive clinical data), ELOS +6.8% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money; see our profile from yesterday), ANIK +6.3% (gets FDA approval), CAG +5.6% (reports NovQ), ACN +5.1% (reports strong NovQ, guides higher; also upgrades from Baird and RBC), SEPR +5.5% (following positive CMS news yesterday, Deutsche raises tgt to $75), RIO +2.4% (announces iron ore prices for Chinese steelmaker - Reters), BSX +1.3% (Cleveland Clinic signs agreement to buy only BSX stents - CNBC), LVLT +1.1%, SAP +1.1%... Under $3: ONSM +51% (up on Apple speculation), SYNX +45% (announces new contract), TUTS +16% (to be acquired by MOT), ENMD +8% (positive clinical data), MEMY +5.6%.

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: IAAC -32% (down in sympathy: GROW -4.3%), WOR -11%, JBL -7% (also downgrades from Credit Suisse and Jefferies), FDC -5.4% (guidance only), CMC -3.7%, BBBY -2.9% (also Credit Suisse downgrade), PMCS -2.8% (guidance only)... Other News: SOFO -13% (prices offering), SIGA -9% (profit taking after big move), HBAN -5.3% (announces merger with SKYF), DIVX -4.7% (Cramer negative on Mad Money), TSTC -4.2%, WTSLA -3.3% (provides Dec same store guidance), MA -1.8% (HSBC downgrade).
  • mis te sellest CLX eilsest uudisest kokkuvõttes arvate?

    ma panin eile possu kinni
    mulle see positiivsus ei meeldinud ja järjekordne põrge 35.5 pealt
  • Speedy, kokkuvõttes see meie nägemust ei muuda. Peame praegust hinnataset ikka kalliks. Tehniliselt ei ole aktsia kõige paremini praegu käitunud jah, aga riski/tulu suhe siiamaani meie arvates hea.
  • Tulu nigu põlegi õieti. Püsib stabiilne, ei kuku, ei tõuse ka õneks. Ainult et kui kaua peab seda kannatama...
  • Minu jaoks oli see CLX suhteliselt neutraalne uudis. Erilist kullaauku ma selles Colgate Palmolive brandide ostmises ei näe. Pigem jääb mulje, et firma ei leia móistlikumaid rahapaigutamise vóimalusi.
    Mina ootan veebruarini, kuni tulemused tulevad. Midagi väga head ma sealt näha ei looda, seega usun et saab lühikese positsiooni ikka kasumiga kinni panna.
    A vóib-olla ma pole päris objektiivne, sest töötan CLX konkurendi juures.
  • ma ootan paremat võimalust uueks sisenemiseks
    kas siis uuesti 65 pealt või 63.5 lähedal oleva toetuse läbides
  • Meie nägemuse kohaselt ei ole see diil samuti suure kaaluga ning nii tühja pipeline juures situatsiooni ei muuda. Lisaks on tugevalt käitunud kogu sektor (CL, PG), kuna seda peetakse ka "kaitsvaks" sektoriks.

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