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Börsipäev 9. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Kaubamaja Q4 sales. The Q4 total sales came in at EEK 1.339 billion, equal to y-o-y growth of 34%. This is in-line with our forecast of EEK 1.364 billion. Supermarket business segment generated sales of EEK 834m, up 38% y-o-y, and department store business line made total sales of EEK 437, up 31% y-o-y. Revenues from real estate business totalled EEK 29m. The company also announced its plans regarding the expansion to Latvia. By the end of 2009, the company plans to open at least 15 Selvers in Latvia (both supermarket and hypermarket formats). First stores will be opened in 2008. Assuming the average size of a store remains the same, the expansion represents an upside of around 70% in sales space.

    Estonia posted six-year high inflation in December = 5.1%. According to Estonian Statistical Office, consumer prices grew by 5.1% in December, the highest increase since September 2001. The growth was mainly driven by the increase in housing expenditures (+14.9% y-o-y), and in the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages (+6.5% y-o-y). The only commodity group where prices eased in December was communications (-4.7% y-o-y).
    Weak December from Vilniaus Baldai. Yesterday we wrote that the company had improved its performance by increasing daily production by 33%. However, December sales figures did not much confirm that. December sales came in at LTL 9.7m, down by 14.6% y-o-y. The total sales in 2006 amounted to LTL 100.3m, equal to y-o-y drop of 9.5%.

    No crash in Estonian real estate. In an interview to Aripaev, Viljas Arakas, CEO of Estonia's largest real estate developer Arco Vara, said that there will be no real estate crash in Estonia any time soon. On one hand, it is perfectly normal to say so, given that the company has recently pulled out of two large projects. On the other hand, in our view, it could also reaffirm that Arco is still on IPO course (which has been speculated for a long time now).

    Latvia to squeeze real estate speculators. According to daily Dienas Bizness, Latvia is planning to implement a new tax to fight real estate speculation. According to the plan, everyone who buys and sells the same real estate within 12 month time will be taxed with 25% from the amount of the deal.

  • Tänast hommikut alustavad naftafutuurid pea 4-protsendilises miinuses, mis on toetamas USA suuremaid indekseid.

    Merrill Lynch downgrades Garmin (GRMN 54.00) to Neutral from Buy

    Lehman Brothers upgrades Armor Holdings (AH 55.97) to Overweight from Equal-Weight

    CIBC downgrades Sprint Nextel (S 19.64) to Sector Perform from Sector Outperform following guidance and saying their concerns surrounding the co's ineffective marketing strategy and poor network quality should be resolved in 2007, given the cos massive operating and capital spending

    Deutsche Bank downgrades Sprint Nextel (S 19.64) to Sell from Hold and lowers their tgt to $14 from $17.50, followign the pre-announcement of Q406 results.

    Kaufman Brothers initiates Bankrate (RATE 35.92) with a Buy and $45 tgt, as they believe there are substantial opportunities for upside in 2007 and beyond, with new initiatives (paid search, behavioral targeting), expansion into other products (lead generation) and financial sub-segments (retirement and financial planning)

    JMP Securities downgrades Brookfield Homes (BHS 36.41) to Sell from Underperform and lowers their tgt to $15 from $18, as they believe the current book value premium isn't justified by land valueStearns initiates WM Wrigley (WWY 51.72) with an Underperform

    Citi: ➤ We are initiating coverage on Loews Corporation with a Buy (LTR), Medium Risk(1M) rating and a 12-month target price of $53 per share.➤ We are recommending investors consider purchasing Loews’ stock primarilydue to: 1) its attractive valuation, 2) its expected near term stable andsignificant free cash flow, 3) its substantial net cash position (around $10 pershare), 4) the potential that management uses its substantial net cash balance toacquire an undervalued business which should create value for shareholders,and 5) a positive risk/reward ratio, or limited downside risk for the stock in thenear term, despite the strength over the past 12-months (up just over 30%).➤ Given the factors above, we expect the market to apply less of a conglomeratediscount, or around 10% from its current rate of 20%.➤ Furthermore, we believe LTR's “war chest” of cash and management's historyof creating significant value, could be a catalyst for the stock in the near future

  • Merrill Lynch downgraded German insurer Allianz (AZ) to neutral from Buy and upgraded Dutch peer Aegon (AEG) to buy from neutral, citing valuation in both cases.

    Citigroup plans to sharply reduce the size of its consumer-finance operations in Japan. In addition to closing the branches, Citigroup said it will add $375 million to financial reserves set aside for repayment of overcharged interest. As a result, the Japanese consumer-finance unit will post a net loss of $370 million for the fourth quarter of 2006 After the sizable loss for the 2006, the Japanese consumer finance business is expected to break even for 2007, and become profitable in 2008, the company said.

  • Stocks to watch:

    • Apple (AAPL) may announce as early as Tuesday a device that combines the iPod with a cellphone. Cingular is expected to provide cellphone service for the phone.
    • BEA Systems (BEAS) said it has been granted an extension for filing quarterly results from the Nasdaq Listing Qualifications Panel.
    • Borders Group (BGP) said it expects fourth-quarter earnings per share will be below the company's prior outlook of $1.80 to $2. The book retailer, which cited factors such as lower-than-expected sales, added that annual per-share income will also miss the company's prior outlook.
    • Brookfield Homes (BHS) said it closed 1,993 homes and lots in 2006, compared with 2,824 in the prior year. Backlog at Dec. 31 was 247 homes, a decrease of 208 homes from the same period in the prior year.
    • Buca (BUCA) said fourth-quarter comparable-restaurant sales rose 4% from the same period last year. For 2006, comparable-restaurant sales increased 3.8%.
    • Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) said preliminary fourth-quarter comparable restaurant sales rose 0.8% from the same period in the prior year. Quarterly revenue, on a 13-week basis, rose 18% to $360.4 million from the same period in the prior year.
    • Cisco (CSCO) is developing plans to team up with media companies, electronics makers and telecoms as they seek to penetrate consumers' living rooms. But that vision hasn't fully come together.
    • Citigroup (C) said it expects its Japan consumer finance segment to post a net loss of about $370 million, or 7 cents a share, in the fourth quarter. The loss is due to changes in Japanese consumer lending laws.
    • Emageon (EMAG) said it expects 2007 per-share income of 24 cents to 29 cents, and revenue from current business of $136 million to $140 million. The provider of enterprise medical information technology systems sees annual earnings per share excluding charges for depreciation, amortization and stock-based compensation of 79 cents to 87 cents.
    • Endo Pharmaceuticals Holdings (ENDP) said it expects 2007 per-share earnings of $1.68 to $1.72, excluding stock-based compensation, among other items.
    • Gap (GPS) is weighing its strategic alternatives, including a possible sale of the company, following two years of weak results. Its shares jumped 7.3%.
      General Electric (GE) has asked for bids on its plastics unit, in an auction that limits private-equity firms from teaming up with other buyout funds to form so-called clubs.
    • Osiris Therapeutics (OSIR) said Prochymal has received fast-track designation from the Food and Drug Administration. The Baltimore-based biotechnology company added that it has received clearance to conduct a Phase III clinical trial using Prochymal to treat a form of Crohn's disease, a gastrointestinal disorder, that does not respond to standard therapies.
    • SonoSite (SONO) said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $54 million, up 20% from the same period last year.
    • Spectrum Control (SPEC) said fourth-quarter net income rose, as sales gained, to $2 million, or 15 cents a share, from $1.12 million, or 8 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.
    • Sprint Nextel (S) warned investors that it won't increase revenue this year and that spending to improve its networks will hurt its bottom line in the near term. Shares tumbled 8% after hours.
    • Stage Stores (SSI) said it will implement "strategic growth initiatives" such as doubling new store openings to 70 per year beginning in fiscal 2008.
    • Supervalu (SVU) posted a 51% jump in quarterly net profit amid last year's acquisition of 1,100 Albertson's supermarkets.
    • Thermage (THRM) said it sees fourth-quarter revenue of $14.6 million to $14.8 million. Last month, the Hayward, Calif.-based non-invasive tissue-tightening company said it was looking for quarterly revenue of $14 million to $14.5 million.
    • Tween Brands (TWB) lowered its view for fourth-quarter earnings per share to a range of 85 cents to 88 cents. Previously, the specialty retailer had said it was looking for quarterly per-share income of 95 cents to $1. Tween said it now sees comparable store sales for the quarter rising 3% to 4%, compared with its prior outlook for growth in the mid-single digits.
    • United Parcel Service (UPS) said it has named David Abney chief operating officer. Abney has also been named president of UPS Airlines, replacing John Beystehner, who retired last week, the Atlanta-based company added.
    • ViroPharma (VPHM) said it expects net product sales of $195 million to $205 million in 2007.

    Market Summary

    • Asian trading closed with the Hang Seng -0.66%, Sensex -0.63%, Taiwan +0.69%, Shanghai +3.72% and Nikkei +0.86%.
  • Küsimus:
    Mis juhtub shortidega kui firma delistitakse börsilt nii, et ta ei kauple enam üldse?
  • ehk teisisõnu - kui näiteks VNT kauplemine ei resumiks üldse. VNTga kauplemine peatatud kuna Chavez tahab kangesti firma natsionaliseerida.
  • Põhimõtteliselt tuleb positsioon likvideerida, kui maakler selleks varem survet ei avalda, siis ilmselt kas väljaostu hinnaga vms.
  • Oil prices dived to their lowest points since mid 2005 amid continued worries over mild winter temperatures in the US and expectations tomorrow's US inventory data will show further gains in US fuel stocks.

  • Distrustful, but Still Buying

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/9/2007 8:30 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Drop the question what tomorrow may bring, and count as profit every day that fate allows you."

    -- Horace

    I've made it quite clear lately that I believe the market has a sharp pullback coming in the near future. Although I feel quite strongly about that, one of the tenets of Shark Investing is to not be overly anticipatory about future market direction. It is important to focus on what is in front of you so you can profit today rather than simply sit and hope to profit on something that may unfold next week.

    If you look too far ahead and try anticipate what may happen, it is easy to overlook the profitable opportunities that arise on a daily basis.

    The way you approach this issue depends on your trading style. The shorter your time frame the more aggressive you can be trading solely what is happening at this moment, but if you can't watch the market closely or you are managing substantial funds, some sort of anticipation becomes necessary.

    As I've moved from trading just my own capital to managing a hedge fund, this has been the most difficult issue for me to deal with. I need to have a market thesis and anticipate to some extent so that I can act quickly and decisively as events unfold, but I also need to respect what is happening in front of me and try to generate profits immediately as opportunities arise. The problem is that it is increasingly difficult to move quickly as you deal with more funds.

    What I find I must do is work harder at anticipating and developing theories but forego taking any action until there is some solid proof that they are coming to fruition. Right now that is particularly important. Although I feel quite strongly we are on shaky footing, the action has not broken down and in fact the likelihood of some upward spikes remains quite high. Although I might anticipate mentally and theoretically that the market will fall, I don't want to act on that belief at this point because there is still no hard proof.

    In fact, there is still money to be made on the upside in the short term and I'd be foolish to pass it up by anticipating too far ahead. That is where we are today and although I might be cautious and distrustful, that isn't going to stop me from taking some long-side trades if I can find them.

    We have a positive open in the way. Crude oil is being smacked once again and is trading down close to $2 as I write. The pullback there is nothing short of stunning and I'd be very surprised if it doesn't have some negative repercussions or indicate something negative in the worldwide economy. Overseas markets are up and Alcoa kicks off earnings season this evening.
  • Volatiilsusindeks VIX on väikest toetustaset järgides tõusnud 12 punktini. Kas hirm on vaikselt taas üles kerkimas.

  • Panen siia ka fedi futuuride pildi eilsest Briefingust intressimäärade võimalike muutumiste kohta:

  • Venemaa indeks RTS -6.1%. Samas, TRF-i hiljutise languse taustal, võis nõrkust ka oodata.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    ACLS +9.4% (reiterates Q4 guidance, says it is seeing high order activity), HIHO +7.3% (extends recent momentum), OPTM +6.9% (Cramer bullish on Mad Money, calls it the most overlooked IPO in 2006), CAKE +6.1% (reports Q4 revs above consensus; also Raymond James upgrade), ANGN +6.7% (reports Q4 revs), CPSL +4.6% (extends recent momentum), TASR +5% (CEO appears on CNBC), CYTK +3.3%, STEM +3.6% (extends momentum, +40% in 4 days), NOVL +3.5% (JMP Sec upgrade), AMR +3.3%, SGEN +2.7% (Needham raises target to $10), BSX +2.5% (to cut 600 jobs), PHG +2.3%, GLW +1.3% (reiterates Q4 guidance), AAPL +1% (MacWorld opens today).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    ESCL -23% (to be delisted from Nasdaq tomorrow), HELE -12% (reports NovQ, misses by $0.13), AGIX -10.5% (co says its heart drug trial results will not be available until late in Q1; the stock had run the past few days on speculation results were imminent), TLB -10.5% (guides below consensus), EMAG -10% (provides disappointing guidance; also Wachovia and JMP downgrades), S -9% (provides disappointing guidance, cites margin pressure; will slash 5,000 jobs; also multiple downgrades), LFC -7.6% (profit taking after 12% move yesterday), CELG -5.2% (disappointing guidance), LWSN -4.5% (reports NovQ, misses by $0.01, guides FebQ revs below consensus), AES -4.3% (down on news of Chavez plan to nationalize power cos; AES owns 82% of Electricidad de Caracas, the largest privately owned electric utility in Venezuela), VIMC -4% (Morgan Stanley downgrade), ACGY -3.5%, GRMN -3.3% (Merrill downgrade), ADO -3.3%, STO -3.2% (down on Chavez news), BP -3% (likely to miss production target - WSJ), REP -2.7% (Deutsche downgrades to Sell), SFLK -1.8%, E -1.3%.
  • "Volatiilsusindeks VIX on väikest toetustaset järgides tõusnud 12 punktini. Kas hirm on vaikselt taas üles kerkimas."

    Aimar, palun ole hea, uuri kõigepealt järgi, mida VIX näitab. Ja siis mõtle, kas isegi teoreetiliselt peaks üldse olema võimalik sellisele instrumendile tehnilist analüüsi teha.

    Ja kui sa suudad natukenegi graafikutest väljapoole mõelda, siis äkki meenub sulle, et tulemuste hooaeg on algamas, millega seoses volatiilsus tõuseb. Mitte ei põrka üks joon teise joone pealt. Põhjus-tagajärg?
  • mis sellistest nagu ESCL ikkagi saab kui ta mul portfellis oleks?
    ettevõte ise ei kao ju kuhugi ja osalus etevõttes ei saa ju lõppeda ainuüksi delistimise tõttu

    ja mis saab optsioonidest?
    kui ma näiteks 2,5 calli juulisse olen ostnud siis ma tahaks seda äkki ikkagi teostada näiteks juulis
  • Tulemuste hooaeg ei tohiks nüüd küll VIX-i liiga palju mõjutada, suurem hüpe VIX-il oli näiteks novembri lõpul kui 10 tasemelt toimus hüpe 12 tasemele, majandustulemuste hooaeg oli siis läbi saanud ning tänupühade järgne suurem langus tõi kaasa ka volatiilsuse suurenemise.

    Samas toetustaset vast VIX-i puhul ei ole tõesti õige kasutada, pigem meenutab VIX graafik EKG joonist - väga järskudele tippudele on järgnenud pikemad stabiilsusperioodid.
  • ESCL jääb pink sheetina ikka kauplema, lihtsalt Nasdaq delistib.
  • Kasutan ära juhust, et yanek teema üles võttis.
    Mind on vaevanud pikka aega küsimus, et mis saab shortidest siis, kui suure lühikeseksmüügi %-ga ettevõte nagu PWEI börsilt ära viiakse? Tegelikult sellele küsimusele tean vastust isegi, aga järgnevatele mitte.
    Oletame, et firma ostab tagasi oma aktsiaid ja lõpuks jääb alles vaid üks nö.tõeline aktsionär ja ta soovib börsilt lahkuda. Kuna ta on firma ainuomanik, siis ei pea ta väljaostupakkumist tegema? Kas ta siis saab shortijatelt küsida vaid näiteks mingit viimase 6 kuu keskmist hinda? Oletame, et shortijad ei ole nõus aktsiaid tagasi ostma? Aga firma ainuomanik otsustab ettevõtte likvideerida. Kui võtta reaalne aktsiakapital, siis võib juhtuda, et ühe aktsia hinnaks tuleb päris suur number. No millal siis shortijad ikkagi peavad lühikeseksmüüdud aktsiad tagasi ostma? Jääb selline tunne, et ei peagi? Ehk on keegi selle asja endale selgeks teinud?
  • Jobs lubab macist rääkida ainult....Stock kukub juba
  • AAPL Apple Computer introduces mobile phone
  • RIMM-ile see uus Apple'i vidin ei tundu meeldivat...
  • Huvi tekitasid kauplejates SYNA ja BRCM. Kaotaja RIMM. Võimalik, et varsti hakatakse karjuma teemal, et MOT KRZR ja RAZR saavad pihta. Ma ei oska öelda, palju hindadesse on arvestatud, kuid SUPX, MFLX jne võivad tähelepanu alla sattuda.
  • Mõnus koomusk käib:

    10:46 am crowd laughing
    10:46 am relisting everything again...
    10:46 am thought long and hard about it
    10:46 am steve is stalling...
    10:46 am what should we charge?
    10:45 am smartphones are around $199 - $299 - $399
    around $299 with 2 year contract
    that's expensive if you buy and ipod too...
    10:45 am $199 for 4 gig nano
    10:45 am what do they normally cost?
  • 10:47 am available: shipping in June
    10:47 am 8GB model - $599
    10:47 am 4GB model - $499
  • Alo - statistika ei vali, kas tegu on VIXi, MSFT, SPXi, dollari või osakese juhusliku liikumisega vaakumkeskkonnas. Seega on võimalik paigutada mistahes aegreale trende, olgu need lineaarsed või 6 astme polünomid.
  • SWKS (semiconductors; mobile connectivity) on ka ellu ärganud ning näitab päris korralikku käivet. Siit võib tulla kommentaare iPhonega seoses.
  • kunagi keegi foorumites andis lingi korterite keskmise m2 hinna võrdluse kohta keskmise palgaga inglismaal
    ega keegi ei mäleta kuidas seda leida võiks
  • Huvitav call Thinkilt:

    ThinkEquity raises their tgt to $18 from $15 as they believe SNCR should be a major beneficiary from AAPL's iPhone announcement, given that it derives over 60% of revenues from Cingular Wireless with its automated BPO service.
  • Ma täitsa omasin ESCLi üleeile. Otsustasin siiski maha müüa (spider sense was tingling). Mis puutub optsioone siis need jäävad kehtima sammuti lühikesed positsioonid mida Escala puhul vist mingi 70%, karudel suur pidu. Aktsia on juba tänasest pink sheetidel listitud.

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