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Börsipäev 23. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    A-Selver appoints new head for Latvian operations. Selver SIA, the Latvian subsidiary of A-Selver, fully owned by Tallinna Kaubamaja, appointed Uldis Priekulis as a Managing Director. Uldis Priekulis has previously worked in several positions at RIMI/KESKO in Latvia. The first stores in Latvia can be expected in 2008. By the end of 2009, the company plans to open at least 15 supermarkets in Latvia.

    Estonia's construction prices up 10% in 2006. According to Estonian Statistical Office, construction prices increased 13.7% y-o-y in Q4. The rise in construction prices was mainly influenced by the increase in labour cost (+25.2% y-o-y), while the increase in the prices of building machines and materials was somewhat lower at +9.2% and +8.1% y-o-y, respectively. Clearly, labour shortage is pushing up wages, and construction workers are likely to be one of the first to reach wage parity. For the full year 2006, construction prices grew by 10.3%.

    Kalev keeps on building media empire. According to BBN, the Estonia's largest candy maker Kalev has signed a contract that enables it to acquire two printing houses. Under the contract signed in January, Kalev will acquire an option to a holding in Uniprint and Unipress. If the option is exercised, Kalev would take over a 20% holding in Uniprint and 50% holding in Unipress. Previously, Kalev has taken over several other media companies, such as Inreko Press, Just, and Põhjarannik.

    Luxury flats in Lithuania more expensive than in Denmark. According to Global Property Guide, a luxury flat in Lithuania costs more than in Copenhagen, Helsinki, Munich, Berlin, or Stockholm. In the study, it was said that a luxury flat in Vilnius cost EUR 3,792 per square meter. This makes the Lithuanian capital the 16th most expensive European City in terms of real-estate prices.

    Decline of population slowing down. According to Statistics Estonia, by preliminary estimation the number of population in Estonia on Jan 1 2007 was 1,342,000. Due to the negative natural increase the number of population decreased by 0.2% in 2006. The total number of births registered during 2006 was 14,819 while the number of deaths was 17,435 - i.e. natural increase was negative 2,616. However, although still negative, the situation has improved over the last years. For example, natural increase was ca -6,000 in 2001.

  • Prudential

    - Large-Cap Quantitative (Edward Keon): About 15% of the S&P 500 has reported Q4 2006 earningsand the results are strong 21.3% sales growth and 18.3% profit growth. These profit levelsare about 6% ahead of consensus expectations. We believe the long-awaited earnings slowdown isfinally here, as those companies yet to report Q4 earnings are expected to grow their profits about6.4%. Expected Q1 2007 earnings growth is now 7.4%, down a couple of ticks over the pastweek, but still higher than the historical average of about 7%. We still expect the S&P 500 toclose 2007 at 1630, and we still recommend 90% stocks versus a 60% benchmark.

    - Cosmetics, Household & Personal Care Products (Favorable): With raw material costs moderating,the dollar weaker, and considerable restructuring, we will be raising the industry growth rateof 14% EPS we have forecasted for 2007. Raising Pocter&Gamble (PG)’s Target from $73 > $78,Colgate’s (CL) Target from $71 > $79, and Newell Rubbermaid’s (NWL) Target from $33 > $35.As both CLX and KMB have generated significant cost savings over the last few years of intensecost pressure, even modest incremental gross margin expansion could accelerate their earningsgrowth.

    Bear Stearns

    - remains positive on US pharmaceuticals. Firm expects 2007 earnings for sector in low-doubledigits vs. S&P in mid-single digits. Expects volume gains and cost-cutting to help earnings andnotes attractive valuations. Wyeth (WYE) is favourite;

    - says Heinz (HNZ) f07 guidance of $2.37-$2.39 may be remain strong. Reuters consensus is$2.37, First Call $2.38;downgrades MedTech sector to Market Weight from Overweight. Firm maintains ratings on sharesin the sector;

    - raises Target on Amgen (AMGN) to $83 from $77 and rating is Outperform. Says it has examinednew court documents late Friday and thinks that AMGN’s chances of prevailing in its patentinfringement case against Roche (RHHBY) has increased dramatically. Firm says the documentsdescrive RHHBY’s CERA as having the same "amino acid sequence and composition" as epoetinbeta, and that the only difference between EPO and CERA is the addition of a PEG group. BearStearns thinks that addition may not be enough for RHHBY’s defense.

    Credit Suisse

    - upgrades European Insurance Sector from neutral overweight

    Deutsche Bank

    - downgrades Commerzbank from Buy to Hold, tgt 33Eur

    JMP Securities

    - downgrades Cisco Systems (CSCO) to Market Perform from Market Outperform. Checks indicatea deceleration in communication equipment during the month.


    initiates Federated Department Stores (FD) & Nordstrom (JWN) with Neutral ratings;

    - upgrades Sara Lee (SLE) to Overweight from Neutral. Firm cites recents trends pointing to aturnaround in the company.

    - upgrading L’Oreal to OW Improving visibility and relative valuation


    - upgrades SAP from equal to overweight


    - downgrades Boeing (BA) to Market Perform from Outperform. Valuation range of $87-$92

  • Prudential raises their MasterCard (MA 107.61) tgt to $130 from $100, based on a higher long-term growth projection and the anticipation
    of robust card spending and stable competition.

    Prudential upgrades Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME 570.00) to Neutral from Underweight and raises their tgt to $570 from $460, as
    January interest rate contract volumes seem to reflect overall volume growth of 15-20% and believe that new growth initiatives such as
    F/X Marketspace and CDS trading should provide at least modest benefits in '08 and '09, which can be augmented by CBOT cost savings
    and NYMEX volumes in '07

    HSBC initiates Comcast (CMCSA 44.79) with an Overweight and sets $52 tgt

    Merrill initiates MasterCard (MA 107.61) with a Neutral

    Merrill upgrades Texas Instruments (TXN 28.59) to Buy from Neutral

    J.P Morgan upgrades Intuit (INTU 31.03) to Overweight from Neutral

    Goldman upgrades U.S Homebuilders to Neutral from Sell, the firm also upgrades DR Horton (DHI 27.13), and MDC Holding (MDC 56.19) to
    Buy from Neutral. The firm upgrades Toll Brothers (TOL 32.31) to Buy from Sell. Goldman upgrades Ryland (RYL 54.43) to Neutral from Sell

    Goldman downgrades Meritage (MTH 61.44) and Hovnanian (HOV 31.53) to Neutral from Buy... The firm also downgrades Lennar (LEN 53.50)
    to Sell from Neutral and downgrades M/I Homes (MHO 35.28) to Sell from Buy

    Morgan Stanley downgrades Motorola (MOT 18.72) to Equal Weight from Overweight

    Bear Stearns downgrades Pfizer (PFE 26.95) to Peer Perform from Outperform
  • Et teid mitte liiga ära hellitada, siis tänane ülesanne on: leia turu pealt treid ja põhjenda! Parimatele taaskord auhinnaks Aimari pildiga t-särgid :)
  • Sharki arvates on meeleolu turgudel üha negatiivsemaks muutunud. 'Head' raportid pole olnud piisavalt head. Mehe tänase loo 3 esimest lauset on toredad, mis tasub kõrva taha panna. Emotsioonide mõju turgudele ei tohiks iial alahinnata.

    Mood Takes a Turn for the Worse

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/23/2007 8:45 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "It is our attitude at the beginning of a difficult undertaking which, more than anything else, will determine its successful outcome."

    -- William James

    Many market players believe the stock market is an exercise in mathematics, economics and valuation. They are wrong. The market is primarily driven by attitude and mood. It is emotions that determine direction, and all the factual data, such as earnings and economic indicators, are minor factors that are positive or negative depending on the prevailing sentiment.

    Since earnings season has kicked off, the attitude of the market has become more negative. Earnings reports have not been bad -- in fact they have generally been better than expected -- but the reaction to them has been quite poor. The obvious explanation is that expectations have gotten too high and buyers have no interest in paying up for stocks that are doing well but are already fully priced.

    The attitude that many individual stocks, albeit with "good" earnings, are not a great value is starting to infect the broader market. There isn't some sudden bad news that is hurting the market. It simply is the growing attitude that there is no compelling or pressing reason to buy stocks right now. The buyers are standing aside and that puts pressure on prices.

    The mood may change but the present environment appears to me to be evolving into something that is a bit more significant than a little unhappiness about a couple minor data points. This is a questioning of overall market valuation and I suspect it is going to play out for a while. The key is to not to be too quick to anticipate a turn back up. We will get some upward spikes and positive action but we need to stay focused on the overall mood and attitude.
  • Üks treid, mida oleks ehk täna teha saanud: Jacobs Engineering Group, Inc. (JEC) heade tulemuste peale BUY Foster Wheeler Ltd. (FWLT) ning The Shaw Group Inc. (SGR). Just SGR reageeris üsna aeglaselt turu avanedes, nii et oli aega positsiooni võtta.
  • long FWLT JEC tulemuste peale.

    Enam vahem sama suurusega ettevotted, pakuvad sarnaseid teenuseid.
    Tagantjarele tarkusena oli vaga hea treid.
  • Industrial Metals & Minerals sektor muu enegria sektori taustal kenasti roheline täna ca +2%. Sai mõned päevad tagasi võetud ACI call'e (aktsia pikas perspektiivis minu arvates alla hinnatud).
  • Tagantjärgi on kõik alati targad, ma pakuks natuke asjalikuma väljakutse: võtta positsioon ja öelda milles, mis hinnaga ning miks, üks lause piisab.
    Proovin ise vahel eeskuju ka anda, aga see tagantjärgi seletamine, oi näe, mis oli, tundub kuidagi mõttetu.
  • Nous, Street, lihtsalt kell 16.20 pole enam aega LHV foorumeid vaadata. Kui vabam hetk tekkis, siis lugesin&kirjutasin.
    No harm done. Voibolla kellelgi on huvitav teada.
  • Qimonda AB'lt täna kell 4:15 pm ET majandustulemuste avaldamine. Minu arvates on QI hind üsna hea võrreldes teiste mälutootjatega.

    Mälude keskmise müügihinna ASP langus oli eelmisel aastal 13%, kuigi tavaliselt on see olnud 30% kandis seega peaks olema head marginaalid. Palju küsimusi seoses Vista tulekuga - osad analüütikud väidavad et arvutite riistvara juba piisav selleks, teised näevad märgatavat riistvara nõudluse kasvu. QI eelmisel conference call'il öeldi, et 2006. aasta jooksul on suurem osa investeerngutest tehtud Vista nõudluse rahuldamiseks, niiet kui nõudlus tekib siis toetab see marginaale ka 2007. Eriarvamused ka 2007. aasta teise poole ülepakkumise kohapealt, kui Vista nõudlus rahuldatud.

    Wall Street Journal'is jutt ühe DRAM player'i kohta: "Hynix will likely beat market expectations when it reports fourth-quarter earnings Jan. 31, helped by strong sales in mainstay DRAM chips."Compared with the third quarter, the figures are very, very good on both operating level and the bottom line," Mr. Kim said. "Sales also made handsome growth."
    Mõni aeg tagasi avaldatud LHV artikkel.

    Võtsin positsiooni $15,7 pealt
  • Susquehanna analüütik räägib enne Yahoo ja Ebay tulemusi optsioonide läbi aktsiate võimaliku liikumise ulatusest. Yahoo tulemused siis täna ja Ebay omad homme.

    Susquehanna analyst on CNBC discusses YHOO & EBAY options ahead of earnings (27.22 -0.20) -Update-
    Susquehanna analyst notes that YHOO options are pricing in around 11% move, which is in line with what they've seen in YHOO in the past. Says they're seeing YHOO call and put buyers. For EBAY, she notes they've seen an increase in EBAY volatility buying with a bullish bias. Notes the mkt is pricing in an 11% move, which would be the second highest move (if that were to occur) that they've seen over the past 2 years.
  • Bush teatas, et kevadel täiendatakse strateeegilisi nafta varusid, mis tähendaks ca 700,000 barreli nafta liikumist reservuaaridesse nädalas. See teade tõi ka kaasa naftahinna ralli ca 50 min tagasi.

    U.S. to fill SPR at rate of about 100,000 BPD starting in spring through royalty oil, according to Bodman - Reuters
    DOE says oil purchases will not adversely impact market or raise gasoline prices, according to Bodman - Reuters.
  • Wachovia analüütik on strateegilise nafta varude duubeldamise võimalike efektide tagajärjed siin päris hästi välja toonud. Muudab pakkumise-nõudluse suhte taas üpriski kitsaks.

    Crude oil closed up ~$2.32 today to $54.90, with much of the gain occurring immediately after headlines hit that President Bush wants to double the Strategic Oil Reserve. We note that Bloomberg earlier quoted an analyst from Wachovia on the significance of this; he said "Doubling the size of the SPR would add significant upward pressure on oil prices. It would remove a significant amount of supply from the market. Refiners will have to spend more to get the available barrels." It's also worth noting that China is quietly filling their own SPR, and when combined with all of the bellicose statements coming out of energy producers Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, this is taking much more crude off the market than many may think. OPEC only has roughly a million excess supply, so the mkt can't afford even the slightlest disruption (even just pipeline problems or any refinery maintenance problems would qualify here)... In addition to the SPR news, some other bullish developments for oil are the statement from the head of OPEC (mentioned this morning) that the "basket price" for OPEC crude should be around $55pbl. This usually trades below the spot price, so if there are calls that the basket should be near $55pbl, than you can make a case that spot crude could be closer $58 than $50 very soon. In addition, tensions in Lebanon have been ratcheting up the past few months -- the Prime Minister repeated today that he will stand firm against Hizbollah protests, which have been occurring in Beirut for the past few months -- and recall that the war in Lebanon sent crude oil into the highs $60's last summer.
  • 16:22 AMD prelim ($0.04) vs $0.08 Reuters consensus; revs $1.77 mln (includes ATYT) vs $1.74 bln Reuters consensus

    AMD sees Q1 $1.6-1.7 bln vs $1.82 bln Reuters consensus
  • YHOO prelim $0.16 vs $0.13 Reuters consensus; revs ex TAC $1.228 bln vs $1.22 bln Reuters consensus

    YHOO sees Q1 revs $1.12-1.23 bln vs $1.25 bln Reuters consensus

    YHOO sees FY07 revs $4.95-5.45 bln vs $5.46 bln Reuters consensus
  • QI'lt head tulemused:
    Qimonda achieved net sales of Euro 1.17 billion (1,54 bUSD) in the first quarter of FY 2007 Vs Reuters consensus est. 1,67 bUSD
    Net income increased to Euro 177 million or earnings per share of Euro 0.52 (0,69 USD) Vs Reuters consensus est. 0.67 USD.

    Seega käive alla keskmise ootuse, kuid EPS üle - head marginalid.

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