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Börsipäev 29. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Ventspils Nafta’s 2007 budget. The Latvian seaport operator Ventspils Nafta expects to earn LVL 52m of revenue in 2007. The company’s number excludes railway services rendered by the subsidiary Ventspils Nafta Terminals, since it was too difficult to determine the planned volumes taking into consideration the participation of international corporation Vitol (owns 34.75% of Ventspils). The company’s 2007 net profit forecast stands at LVL 5m.

    Eesti Ehitus gets an order. Linnaehitus, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Eesti Ehitus, has signed a construction agreement with Tartu City Government to perform the construction works of extension of Tartu Kesklinna school. The value of the contract is EEK 69.6m (EUR 4.45m) excl. VAT and works are scheduled to be completed in October 2007.

    Vilniaus Baldai losses LTL 2m in December. The Lithuanian furniture manufacturer Vilniaus Baldai posted December loss of LTL 2m.  The total Q4 loss was LTL 4m, while a year ago the company posted Q4 net profit of LTL 1.2m. Sales in December dropped by 14.6% to LTL 9.66m, and in Q4 decreased by 5% to LTL 30.7m. For 2007, the company expects sales to grow by 24.5% y-o-y to LTL 139.5m, and a net profit of LTL 0.5m. The company still needs to improve margins to become worthwhile looking as an investment case.

    Lithuania’s GDP grows 6.6% in Q4. According to Lithuanian Statistical Office, the Q4 GDP in current prices came in at LTL 22.26b, equal to a y-o-y increase of 6.6%. The growth was mainly stipulated by construction works and financial services. The full year GDP in current prices was LTL 81.6m, equal to a y-o-y growth of 7.4%. The other Baltic states, Estonia and Latvia, are expected to post GDP growth figures around 10%. 

    Retail sales growth slowing down? Lithuanian Statistical Office released December retail sales figures. Retail sales volume increased 9.4% y-o-y in December. The full year retail sales growth in Lithuania was 14.1% y-o-y. Similarly to previous months, clothing and footwear sales showed the highest increase (+29.7% y-o-y in December; +35.6% 12M). The second highest increase was in sale of motor vehicles (+16.1% in December, +26.4% 12M).

    Olympic gets a fine. On Friday, the Estonian Financial Supervision Authority fined Olympic Entertainment Group for 10,000 EEK (ca EUR 640), because Olympic should have published an annex to its offering and listing prospectus with respect to the repayment of a syndicated loan arranged by Hansabank. Although Olympic did not agree with the decision, they are not going to appeal, since the fine is so small.

  • Prudential downgrades Cooper Industries (CBE 92.68) to Neutral from Overweight and lowers their tgt to $100 from $115, based on pending tax legislation which could effectively eliminate CBE's tax inversion effective 1/1/07.

    Friedman, Billings upgrades ON Semiconductor (ONNN 8.48) to Outperform from Market Perform and raise their tgt to $11 from $7, based on better-than-expected revenue and margin stability, as well as potential EPS leverage into '08 as utilization improves, particularly at the newly acquired Gresham fab.

    Morgan Stanley upgrades Seagate Technology (STX 27.35) to Overweight from Equal Weight

    Bear Stearns downgrades MGM Mirage (MGM 70.27) to Peer Perform from OutperformPali Research initiates China Mobile (CHL 47.36) with a Buy and a $66 tgt saying they expect net subscriber additions to grow 17% in 2007 to 64 mln and 14% in 2008 to 73 mln thereby sustaining total subscriber growth in excess of 20%. They believe the monthly reports of subscriber growth can be a driver for the stock...

    Morgan Stanley upgrades Rockwell Collins (COL 66.78) to Overweight from Equal Weight

    Friedman Billings upgrades Refiners to Overweight from Market Weight due to their view that refined product inventories should decline by about 10% over the next two months, creating upward momentum in refining margins and stock prices. The firm says their top recommendations are Outperform rated Tesoro (TSO) with a $83 tgt, which should benefit from strong West Coast refining margins in 1Q07, and Valero (VLO) with a $79 tgt which should benefit from refinery downtime in PADD 3

    A.G Edwards upgrades Home Depot (HD 39.94) and Lowes (LOW 32.58) to Buy from Hold saying they anticipate a trough of housing activity will take place in current quarter or early 2nd quarter 2007. Firm notes in the last three cycles, during the first year after housing turnover turns upward, the home improvement retailers have enjoyed an average equity gain of 44.3%.

    Merriman says the new WiMAX spectrum awards and new broadband devices such as AAPL's iPhone leaves them confident that demand for high-speed mobile connectivity, even outside of 3G mobile standards, should continue to drive broadband wireless. Firm says ALVR remains positioned to address the needs of service providers' jump to leverage a new wireless technology that is meaningfully less expensive than the status quo. And to bolster its position, firm says ALVR has struck an agreement to license technology for CPE devices. They continue to rate ALVR shares Buy.

    GOOG Google tgt raised to $550 from $540 at Oppenhiemer- saying co continues to benefit from strong trends in search

    Stifel believes that when making buy-and-sell decisions on eBay's (EBAY 31.65) stock, investors need to begin focusing on organic growth and valuation, which, when combined, presents a compelling investment case for eBay shares.

  • Nafta maailmast tuleb see nädal tähtsaid tulemusi ning otsa teevad lahti rafineerijad. Kui suve lõpul jõudis nafta hind üle $75, teenisid rafineerijad barreli pealt kuni $20. Pärast tugevat sügist musta kulla hinna langust kukkusid marginaalid barreli nafta pealt paari dollarini ning on seejärel sealt taas kosuma hakanud.

    Tesoro(TSO) on suurtest rafineerijatest täna esimene tulemuste avaldaja ning ettevõte suutis ka positiivselt üllatada. Kasumit ootasid analüütikud $1.88 aktsia kohta, kuid Tesoro teenis kogunisti $2.28. Müügitulu vähenes eelmise aastaga võrreldes 7.8%, küündides veidi üle $4 miljardi. Rafineerija Sunoco(SUN) teatab oma tulemused 31. jaanuaril ja Valero Energy(VLO) 1. veebruaril, mis on ka energiahiiu Exxon Mobili(XOM) tulemuste avaldamise päevaks.

    Samuti tuletan meelde, et varasemate kokkulepete kohaselt pidi OPEC 1. veebruaril 500,000 barreli võrra päevas oma tootmist piirama.

    Kuigi tänane päev on sündmustevaene, on sel nädalal turuosaliste poolt jälgitavaid sündmusi tulemas omajagu. Kolmapäeval teatakse Föderaalreservi otsus(otsitakse vihjeid võimalike intresside langetamise või tõstmise kohta) ning reedel teatakse tihedasti jälgitava tööhõive raporti tulemused.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up pn strong earnings/guidance: SILC +30%, RFIL +27%, MAT +4.2%.... Other News: PREM +63% (to merge with UBSI), FRC +41% (to be acquired by MER), ABY +21% (to merge with BOW), ATRS +19% (to be acquired by SYMC), BOW +14% (to merge with ABY, also BofA upgrade), LAUR +12% (to be acquired by its founder), ISIS +7% (Lehman initiates with $20 tgt), BMY +5% (reportedly in merger talks with Sanofi - Reuters), HSOA +5.8% (announces contracts), CEM +5.8% (Deutsche upgrade), FLML +5.7% (positive mention in Barrons), IRBT +5.6% (wins large military order), CHINA +4% (announces strategic agreement with Nokia), BRCM +1.9% (announces new silicon and software platform), INTC +1.1% (positive broker comments).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down pn disappointing earnings/guidance: QLTY -24% (guidance only), RDWR -7.8%, DT -5.6% (guidance only), USG -3.5%... Other News: LOCM -8% (profit taking after 47% move on Friday), FRPT -6.6% (still checking on this, perhaps a sell the news reaction to a military vehicle order), NFLX -4.1% (Roth downgrades to Sell), BMC -2.4% (mentioned negatively in Barron's), CHL -1.9%... Mining stocks are weak: GFI -4.9%, HMY -3.9%, AU -2.8%, FCX -2.4%, LMC -1.7%... Under $3: GIGA -28% (reports Q3).

    Turud avanevad punases territooriumis.
  • Market's on a Precipice

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/29/2007 8:24 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Expect the best. Prepare for the worst. Capitalize on what comes."

    -- Zig Ziglar

    It is always important that market participants be ready to move quickly, but this week it will be particularly important. The market is very ripe for some fast moves and we'll have to be on top of our game if we hope to profit.

    The technical action last week has set the stage for some drama. A breakout move in the DJIA and S&P 500 on Wednesday was totally reversed on Thursday. That is a clear negative because it indicates the bulls may have used up a good amount of buying power and don't have the ability to follow through. That gave the bears the clear edge on Friday and with the addition of Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) earnings providing a classic sell the news opportunity, the bears had the opportunity to make some downside progress. However, once again the bears proved impotent and were incapable of taking advantage of the situation, and the bulls battled to a standstill on Friday.

    As we kick off the new week, the technical situation, while still intact, is showing signs of erosion and the mood surrounding earnings has not been particularly upbeat. The stocks that have driven the market during the rally off the July low have not fared well this earnings season. The best stocks on earnings have been the laggards like Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating).

    This week we have two primary catalysts to consider, both of which occur on Wednesday. First is the FOMC interest rate decision. Much of the recent rally was attributed to hopes the Fed would cut rates sooner rather than later but the hope has been steadily declining as economic conditions remain firm and inflationary pressures fail to dissipate. Any signal from the Fed that its stance is becoming more hawkish could have a significant impact on the market.

    Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) should be a very interesting earnings report because, like Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating) and some others, expectations for a big quarter are quite high. That has been a problem this quarter, leading to a sell the news reaction and that will be on the minds of many.

    Other issues to watch this week are a continued rebound in oil, the launch of Microsoft's Vista, and a slew of earnings reports. The bulls have some heavy lifting to do but they have proved up to the task quite nicely for quite a while. Will this be the week they slip?

    We have a slightly soft open on the way despite the fact that overseas markets were mostly positive and oil and gold are trading down.
  • Tesoro konverentsikõne just lõppes ning tuleb tõdeda, et pakkus päris head kuulamist. Juhtkond oli positiivselt meelestatud ning naerupahvakute tõttu tuli rohkem kui paar korda jutu sisse pikemaid pause teha.

    Oluline oli juhtkonna jutt pakkumise-nõudluse vahekorrast, kus kinnitati, et nõudlus rafineeritud toodete järele on jätkuvalt jõudsalt kasvamas. Suurim langus toimus oktoober-detsember perioodil lennukikütuse varudes ning just lennukikütuse pealt teenitud marginaal(crack spread) oli suurim.

    Lisaks kasumi seisukohalt rekordilisele 2006. aastale oodatakse ka tugevat 2007. aastat.

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