Börsipäev 30. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Retail trade booming. According to Statistics Estonia, retail sales increased 18% in December yoy (constant prices). The fastest growth came from retail sales of household goods, appliances, hardware and building materials (54% yoy). Retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear came in second with 35% growth. According to the preliminary data, retail sales increased 19% in 2006 yoy. No wonder retailers like Baltika (Neutral) and Kaubamaja have had such a nice run.

    DTV to be postponed. Last week, we wrote that the Lithuanian Radio and Television Commission (RTC) will review the request to postpone digital TV services until July. Now it is clear that DTV will be postponed until the beginning of summer. RTC was asked to postpone their broadcast starting date because TEO (Acc) had failed to meet its obligation to reimburse digital TV decoder acquisition costs to end-users. By the end of 2006, TEO had to pay LTL 3.35m to viewers in compensations for TV decoders necessary to view digitally broadcast shows.

    Estonia's 5 major economic problems. Estonian business daily Äripäev pointed out 5 major problems which determine whether the country's economy keeps growing or the country is facing rough times, BBN reported. These 5 factors are: 1) lack of workforce - whether to open the labour market to guest workers; 2) wage growth - could recent successful strike warning of medical workers mean that also other professionals are seeking for strikes; 3) falling exports - Estonia is no longer source of cheap labour, need for higher value products;  4)rampant borrowing - world's fastest growing housing loan market, half of corporate borrowing went to real estate last year; and 5) tax disputes - currently income tax on reinvested profit is zero, but must be stopped by 2009. Another possible concerns mentioned were sanctions from Russia and the ambiguity over Estonia's entry to the eurozone that are all leaving their mark on the economy.

    Building material prices grow. BBN writes that building material prices in Latvia grew by 2-30% last year, but they are expected to rise even more. Wholesalers explain that the price growth goes along with the construction boom in Europe. Another reason for increasing prices of raw materials was the rise in electricity prices. Last year, the steepest price growth was with cement, which became 30% more expensive compared to a year ago. I agree that higher prices for building materials is a problem for construction sector, but the crucial factor is still lack of labour.

    Latvia's insurance market up by a third. According to BBN, insurance market in Latvia grew by 35% last year, exceeding LVL 200m. Risk insurance companies signed on premiums LVL 182m. The largest insurance companies in 2006 were Balta (LVL 44m premiums) and BTA (LVL 41m). Life insurance companies signed premiums on by 58% more than a year ago, reaching LVL 26.6m. The largest life insurance companies were Ergo Latvia (LVL 7.9m) and Sampo Dziviba (LVL 6.01m).

  • Täna hommikul tulemustega tulnud näiteks Black&Decker (BDK), mis lõi oma juba langetatud prognoose ning näeb nii käibe kui kasumi langust aastal 2007. Põhjuseks vähene nõudlus toodete järele. Tulemustega väljas ka UPS (UPS), mis kinnitab samuti USA majanduse jahtumist ning langetab oma 2007. aasta prognoosi. Procter&Gamble (PG) teatas suhteliselt oodatud neljanda kvartali tulemused ning prognoosid ka suhteliselt in-line. Üldiselt indikeerivad futuurid positiivset päeva algust.

    Thomas Weisel downgrades Genesis Microchip (GNSS 9.86) to Market Weight from Overweight, following a wider than expected loss in Q307, revenues that were light and Q407 downside guidance.

    Friedman, Billings downgrades Phelps Dodge (PD 121.45) to Market Perform from Outperform and maintains a $125 tgt, based on Q406 results that were lower than expected

    Wachovia initiates Sealy (ZZ 15.15) with a Market Perform, as they believe the co will meet their long-term growth targets yet have limited visibility into the yet to be reported Q4 results and Q1

    JP Morgan upgrades Starbucks (SBUX 34.56) to Overweight from Neutral

    Friedman Billings downgrades Massey Energy (MEE 23.37) to Market Perform from Outperform and cuts their tgt to $28 from $30 following earnings and saying the co appears to moving towards a more realistic guidance, but the market will clearly wait several quarters before calling success.

    Morgan Stanley upgrades Alcoa (AA 31.80) to Overweight from Equal Weight

  • Täna avaldasime LHV Pro all uue investeerimisidee Fundtech (FNDT). Tegemist on stabiilset kasvu näidanud firmaga, mille käive ja kasum on suhteliselt hästi prognoositavad (iga kvartali alguseks on ettevõttel ettekujutus olemas ca 90% ulatuses, milliseks kujunevad nende kvartali müügitulud).Lisaks on firma olnud pikka aega kasumis, mis on sellise väikese tarkvarafirma kohta üsnagi ebaharilik. Peale selle saavutatakse suurim osa kasvust orgaaniliselt ning võimendust kasutamata (tugev bilanss). Natuke meenutab ettevõte mulle juba suletud ideed Phase Forward (PFWD), mis oma prognoositavate müügituludega mulle silma jäi.


  • Bank of America on kinnitamas oma ostuteesi Nokiale(NOK), kuna leiab, et 4. kvartali turuosa tõusu tegevusharu kasumitest domineerisid Nokia ja Sony Ericsson. Samsung ja Motorola olid kannatajate rollis, mida ilmestasid ka Motorola poolsed tulemused. Bofa ütleb ka, et isegi kui keskmine mobiiltelefoni müügihind(on olnud probleemiks kogu harule) langeb 2007. aastal 10%(seoses arenevate turgude ja odavamae mudelite osakaalu tõusuga), on Nokia ikkagi hästi positsioneeritud häid tulemusi andma.

    Lisaks internetis leiduvale tasub laiema pildi ja huvitavate infokildude saamiseks ka rahvusvahelisi uudistekanaleid jälgida. BBC-st jäi täna kõrva arutelu Venemaa ja Suurbritannia kasiinode teemadel.

    Mängurlus on Venemaal tõusnud väga suureks probleemiks, kuna kõigest kahe aastaga on sõltlaste arv kahekordistunud. Sõltlaste kliiniku ühe juhataja hinnangul on see arv tõusnud 5 miljoni inimeseni, mis on ca 3,5% kogu rahvastikust. Selle tulemusena on Venemaa seadnud praeguseks eesmärgiks mängurlus Venemaal keelustada ning lubada seda ainult üksikutes spetsiaalsetes USA-laadsetes nn Las Vegase tsoonides. Probleem on aga selles, et praegune tähtaeg on vaid 2 aasta kaugusel, kuid tulevastes asutatud kohtadest kaugel asuvates mängutsoonides pole veel lillegi liigutatud.
  • Ichan valiti Motorola juhatusse. Aktsia 6% plussis.
  • Veel ei ole valitud ..

    Carl Icahn, the wealthy investor famed for his involvement in corporate proxy fights, is seeking nomination to the board of Motorola Inc., the company said Tuesday.
    A notice sent to Motorola states that Icahn owns about 33.5 million shares, representing a 1.39% interest in the company. Motorola said it has not set a date yet for its next annual meeting.
  • Waiting for Our Big Break

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/30/2007 8:41 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    Genius is eternal patience

    -- Michelangelo

    The major indices are all mired in trading ranges, which demands that we be patient until some clearer trend emerges. The Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are trading at the same levels they were at 2 1/2 months ago. There have been a few spikes up and down but overall the action has been fairly flat since mid-November.

    The DJIA and S&P 500 have been flat for a couple weeks but have done much better since November, up 2%-3% since then. This strength in the senior indices has contributed to the perception that the market has been in a steady upswing since July. Big-cap leadership has made this market feel like it has been tremendously strong but this has not been an equal opportunity market and if you aren't in the institutional favorites then you are likely feeling frustrated.

    The problem we face now is that we are sitting firmly in the middle of a trading range awaiting significant news from the Fed about interest rates. This makes it nearly impossible to make big moves. As we saw last Wednesday and Thursday and intraday yesterday, the action is quite volatile and any move is prone to quick reversals.

    Buyers are quick to take profits but they also are willing to take advantage of weakness. One of these days one of these spikes, up or down, is going to follow through and the folks who are playing the trading range will be caught by surprise; and when they scramble to re-position it will accelerate the move.

    That development of a new trend is where we can make the big profits but we have to be careful about overanticipation. For now we can play the trading range but stay patient as we wait for a stronger trend to emerge. This is a time for patience.

    As I've made abundantly clear for a while, I believe the risk is more to the downside than the upside but we are still holding up technically and it is a mistake for me to be too anticipatory about that. The market is holding steady for now and it has the capacity to move higher out of this trading range. I need to respect that fact and make sure I don't let my feelings make me biased about market direction. If I don't stay patient and wait for the market to tell me the story, the likelihood is that I'm going to find myself feeling quite frustrated.

    We have an upbeat open on the way, which looks like it is due to some slightly positive earnings from PG. I see less stellar reports from 3M, MRK and UPS but the mood is positive and buyers are stepping up regardless. Overseas markets were slightly higher, and oil and gold are trading up.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ALGN +10.3%, ANGN +8.5%, TGX +8%, ACTU +7.7%, KRON +7%, GYI +5.5%, JDAS +5%, SPSN +4.7%, CNET +6%, UNM +3.3%, X +1.5%, ZMH +1.5%, ATHR +1.1%... Other News: CGEN +15% (announces collaboration with Teva), MOT +5.7% (Icahn seeks board seat), BJGP +4.7% (extends recent momentum, +72% in a month), BPA +4.4% (announces positive bird flu vaccine resuts), ACTI +9% (extends yesterday's 10% move on Citrix deal), RSH +4.2% (Goldman upgrade), FHN +4.4% (CEO to retire), SI +3.9% (Merrill upgrade), SOLF +3.6% (Goldman initiates with a Buy), AA +1.4% (Morgan Stanley upgrade), NOK +1.4% (BofA making positive comments), INTC +1%, AAPL +0.8% (co now offers shuffle in 5 colors)... Under $3: JOB +18% (reports DecQ).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: MMM -5%, GNSS -13% (also Roth downgrades to Sell), VLTR -11%, ICUI -8.2%, LXK -5.4%, COCO -5.2%, PCL -4.7%, MAN -4.5%, AXE -3.9%, UPS -3.4%, CME -3.3%, CFC -3.2%, TKR -2.9% (guidance only), JBLU -2.5%, WYE -2.4%... Other News: NOOF -5% (names new CIO, extends recent weakness), THO -4.8% (announces accounting investigation), NTRI -2.7% (Citigroup lowers tgt to $95 from $105), GFI -1.4% (extends recent weakness)... Under $3: ZANE -5% (insider sales announced).
  • Tarbijausaldus-> 110.3 vs 110 konsensus
    Tegu kõrgeima tasemega alates 2002. aasta maist
  • Märtsi maagaas on täna tõusnud 10%, isegi aasta pärast antav maagaas on 3.5% üleval. Päris hea tõus arvestades maagaasi viletsat perfomance-t umbes "viimase saja aasta jooksul". ETFS natural gas on ka tõusnud üle 4%.

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