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Börsipäev 31. jaanuar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Entering earnings season. More or less all of the most important Baltic companies will report their 4Q results in February, starting with Tallinn Water (Neutral) today. All three Baltic markets have seen quite a spectacular run in the past months with Tallinn up 15% YTD and Riga and Vilnius up 6% and 4%, respectively. Hence, valuation is quite high, which leaves little room for disappointment. Tallinn is trading at a PE of 19.8x for 2007E, while Riga and Vilnius are trading at 18.8 and 20.8 times 2007E earnings, respectively. At the same time, if Q4 earnings beat our estimates, 2007 valuation could come down after we make the upside changes in our forecasts. The markets are likely to show bit larger volatility during February and let us hope the companies reveal some useful hints about 2007 prospects.

    Latvia’s retail trade up 25.8%. According to Statistics Latvia, retail trade turnover increased 25.8% in December yoy (constant prices). In contrast, the figures were 18% and 9.4% in Estonia and Lithuania, respectively. For full 2006, Latvia’s retail turnover increased 20.1%. As usually, retail trade in textiles, clothing, footwear and leather ware was one of the strongest sectors with sales increasing 39% in December yoy.

    Labor productivity low but increasing. According to the latest survey by Conference Board, growth of Estonia’s labor productivity (up 7.4%) was the fastest in EU in 2006. Labor productivity is calculated as total GDP ($US) / total hours worked. However, in spite of the high growth, Baltic’s productivity is in the low end of EU. Labor productivity in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania was $20.0, $17.0 and $20.1 in 2006, respectively. In contrast, it was $45.3 in Finland, $45.8 in the UK and $50.3 in the US. Hence, Baltic’s have a long way to go. Full database at http://www.ggdc.net/dseries/data/ted/ted07I.xls.

    E.O.S becomes Estonia’s largest oil terminal. E.O.S. that has merged the operations of oil terminals Termoil and Trendgate has become Estonia’s largest oil transit company, business daily Aripaev wrote yesterday. Why interesting? E.O.S is one of those companies who has speculated about possible listing in Tallinn. So far, it seems that they are on track (except for failed Pakterminal deal).

    Baltics on top, again. According to The European Commission, the total number of rail passengers traveling in the EU rose 2.2% in 2005. EU’s fastest growth rates came from Estonia (+28%), Ireland (+13%) and Latvia (+10%). Lithuania on the other hand posted a decrease of 9%. Given that the situation of railways and trains is not something to show off, the high growth figures from Baltics are a bit surprising.

     Tallinn Water (Neutral) is reporting Q4/06 today.

  • Tallinna Vesi tulemustega väljas (vaata siit).

    Esmapilgul suhteliselt meie ootustele vastavad.

  • Aasia börsidel oli täna väga punane päev - langust juhtis Hiina, tehes läbi suurima languse viimase 21 kuu jooksul.

    Bloomberg.com reports China's stocks tumbled, leading declines in Asia, after lawmaker Cheng Siwei said the nation's shares are overvalued, adding to speculation the government will step up efforts to slow fund inflows. China Vanke dropped. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index plunged 6.5%, the biggest slump since the measure was created in April 2005. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.6% to 140.21 at 7 p.m. in Tokyo. The measure was little changed in January, after rallying 9.4% in the previous three months. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average lost 0.6% to 17,383.42. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.7% from a record. Stock benchmarks also declined around the region, except in New Zealand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Pakistan.
  • Baird downgrades Autoliv (ALV 60.80) to Underperform from Neutral and maintains $55 tgt, based on a rich valuation that seems to more than discount the acceleration in earnings growth expected during 2007

    Baird downgrades Manitowoc (MTW 58.25) to Neutral from Outperform and lowers their tgt to $56 from $66, following Q406 results which saw crane order growth slow while Foodservice operating results were again below expectations

    Lehman Brothers downgrades Carnival (CCL 52.15) to Equal Weight from Overweight

    Credit Suisse upgrades Frontier Oil (FTO 27.85) to Neutral from Underperform and raises their tgt to $31 from $28 noting FTO has been the worst performing US Independent refiner over the past month, down 8.3% compared to the group which is up 2.4%. The firm says while FTO does not offer much in the way of defensive qualities, they do see upside from current levels given the company's unique leverage to inland market dynamics

    Oppenheimer tõstab nafta ja gaasiaktsiate reitingu varasema neutraalse pealt osta peale..

    Mõningad tähtsamad tulemused:

    Ingersoll-Rand (IR) beats by $0.03, guides Q1 EPS below consensus, guides Y07 above consensus: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings from continuing ops of $0.76 per share, excluding a $0.02 charge, $0.03 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.73; revs rose 7% to $2.89 bln vs $2.78 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS from continuing ops of $0.68-0.73 vs. $0.76 consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY07, sees EPS from continuing ops of $3.61-3.71 vs. $3.55 consensus. CEO comments, "We expect end markets and material costs in the first quarter of 2007 to be consistent with the fourth quarter 2006. We anticipate continuing weak residential construction markets in the first quarter, followed by a slow, gradual recovery for the balance of 2007. As a result, first-quarter 2007 earnings from continuing operations are expected to be in a range of $0.68 to $0.73 per share

    Boeing (BA) beats by $0.19, ups FY07 EPS guidance, guides for Y08: Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.16 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.19 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $0.97; revenues rose 26.2% year/year to $17.54 bln vs the $16.47 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY07, sees EPS of $4.55-4.75, up from previous guidance of $4.45-4.65, vs. $4.75 consensus; sees FY07 revs of $64.5-65 bln, reflects Utd Launch Alliance transaction, may not compare to $66.38 bln consensus. BA sees FY08 EPS of $5.55-5.75 vs $5.82 consensus; sees revs of $71-72 bln vs $72.3 bln consensus.  

  • GDP-adv 3.5% vs 3.0% consensus, 2.0% prior. Statistika näitab, et GDP kasvast neljandas kvartalis kiiremini kui oodati ning põhiline inflatsioonimõõdik chain deflator oli eelnevast tegelikust madalam ehk 1.5% versus 1.9%.
  • Focus on Fed, Data

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/31/2007 8:36 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity. Surely some revelation is at hand."

    -- The Second Coming by William Butler Yeats

    We have a particularly interesting set of events affecting the market today, and the potential for new revelations is quite high. Already this morning a Communist party official in China made negative comments about the Shanghai exchange, which has been one of the hottest in the world.

    He stated that only 30% of the companies listed there meet Western criteria for investment and raised concerns about valuation. We are going to be hearing plenty of talk about how Shanghai looks like the Nasdaq from early 2000.

    We have a slight negative reaction to that news in the very early going but market players are focusing on the GDP numbers this morning and then the Fed interest rate decision. With both GDP and the FOMC on the same day it is possible we can have conflicting results. Weak GDP would indicate to the market that the Fed can be less hawkish but that data may not even be entering into the decision they make today. So we have to be very careful not to let the GDP mislead us into concluding anything about what the Fed may do.

    Be particularly wary of placing big bets in front of the Fed today. You might get it right and hit the jackpot but the odds of a successful, albeit less dramatic, trade increase if you want to play the themes that emerge after the news is out. Many market players are inclined to roll the dice in front of major events, which really can get the adrenalin pumping. But that is just gambling and not carefully reasoned speculation.

    The Fed is particularly important today not because it is expected to do anything drastic but because it is going to help set the tone of the trading for a while. Much of the market's rally off the July low was predicated on the belief that we had inflation under control and a soft economic landing was likely, which would allow the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later. Recent economic data has pretty much wiped out the hope of a quick rate cut but there still seems to be the perception that inflation is not a major issue.

    The Fed today is going to give the market a hint about what it is thinking with some very subtle language. In fact, even if it doesn't change a word of their policy statement, that is going to cause a reaction by the market.

    The big issue for us to consider is market expectations. Are market players ready if the Fed hints at being more hawkish? Is it possible that it could be less hawkish and if so do we see a huge rally? It certainly seems unlikely that the Fed will back off on its worries about inflation but if it did the reaction would likely be dramatic.

    We'll talk more about the possibilities before the decision but for now the most important thing to keep in mind is that chances for a strong move are quite high and we need to be ready if we don't want to be whipsawed.

    We have some early weakness as overseas markets were pressured and oil is trading down slightly after a huge move yesterday.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SIRF +19%, OMCL +7.5%, BKI +6.9%, CHRW +7.4% (also JP Morgan upgrade), EL +5.3%, CKFR +4.2%, FLEX +3.5%, BA +2.9%, CYMI +2.4%, HRS +2.1%... Other News: EFUT +17% (annouces deal with IBM), PDRT +15% (announces contract), WSII +9.1% (Cramer positive on Mad Money, calls it a short squeeze candidate), SID +6.3% (Tata Steel outbids SID to buy CGA - NY Times), BLTI +6.2% (gets FDA clearance for its Ezlaze), GBX +5.9% (Cramer positive on Mad Money, calls it a short squeeze candidate), CGA +5.8% (to be acquired by Tata Steel), BMY +4.9% (bolsters bank team amid bid talk - FT), KWK +4.2% (provides reserve update), CHRT +4% (extends recent momentum), TEVA +2.1% (to collaborate with Compugen), DO +1.5% (declares $4 special dividend), PACT +1.4%... Under $3: PTN +20% (announces collaboration with AZN), AVNR +13% (gets FDA approval for new formulation), NXXI +6% (positive clinical data).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on disappointing earnings/guidance: CLS -16% (also CFO to resign; Bear Stearns downgrade), WBSN -13% (also Susquehanna downgrade), NTRI -13% (guidance only, also multiple price tgt cuts), EFII -9.3% (also OpCo downgrade), SLAB -9%, NWRE -8.3%, SNDK -8.1%, SEPR -7%, JNPR -5.9% (also JMP Sec downgrade)... Other News: POLXF -13% (drug trial halted after HIV risk), CMVT -5.1% (announces Nasdaq delisting), ALU -1.8%, SAP -1.3%... Chinese stocks are weak following sell-off in Chinese trading on bubble concens: CPSL -6%, CAF -5.2%, CHU -5%, CHL -4.5%, GCH -4.2%, LFC -3.9%, ACH -3.9%.
  • Distillaatide varud vähenesid -2.6 mln vs oodatud -2.1 mln barrelit
    Mootorkütuse varud tõusid +3.8 mln vs oodatud +1.8 mln barelit.
    Toornafta varud tõusid +2.7 mln vs oodatud +1.5 mln barrelit.
  • FOMC votes to keep rates unchanged at 5.25%
    Fed sees 'tentative' stabilization in housing market
    FOMC says reading on core inflation have improved modestly, inflation pressures likely to moderate
    Fed sees 'tentative' stabilization in housing market
    FOMC Voted Unanimously For Unchanged Federal Funds Rate
  • GOOG prelim $3.18 vs $2.91 Reuters consensus; revs ex TAC $3.21 bln vs $3.14 bln Reuters consensus

    GOOG revs excluding TAC $2.23 bln vs $2.2 bln First Call consensus

    Aktsia teeb järelturul ameerika mägesid. Hetkel maksab $487 ja -1.4%

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