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  • Baltic Morning News


    Estonian Telecom (Buy) Q4 in-line. Q4 sales increased by 11.3% y-on-y to EUR 99.1m, slightly above our forecast at EUR 95.3m. Operating profit came in at EUR 25.2m, corresponding to a margin of 25.4% - vs. our expectation of EUR 26.2m and 27.5%, respectively. Pre-tax profit was also in-line at EUR 25.8m, vs. our expectation at EUR 26.6m. Both Fixed-line and Mobile sales came in slightly above our forecast (7.1% and 1.9%, respectively). The growth in mobile was supported by increased volumes of call minutes. Our long-term dividend forecast yield was supported by strong operating cash flow, which amounted to EUR 42m in Q4 (highest this year). Online briefing starts at 11:00 (Estonian time).

    SAF Tehnika Q4. Sales for Q2/06-07 increased by 6.7% y-on-y to LVL 3.83m, which was in-line with our expectations. However, EBITDA came in at LVL 0.495m - somewhat below our projections. The main reason behind lower than expected profit was the robust increase in salary expenses which, according to the company, was caused by increased production and sales capacities. In addition to higher number of employees, we see tough wage pressure as well. Also, the new high capacity SDH product line has not fully picked up yet.

    Grindeks reports solid Q4. The Q4 sales came in at LVL 11.52m, equal to a y-o-y growth of 14.1%. Sales to Russia and CIS rose by 18%, and made up 81% of the total sales (Russia 51%, CIS 30%). The Q4 operating profit was LVL 1.70m, equal to a margin of 14.7%. The Q4 pre-tax profit was LVL 1.73m, corresponding to a margin of 15.0%. Grindeks is trading at a PER 2007 of 11.2x with EPS growth of 21%, and it is one of the cheapest stocks in the Baltics. The main sales driver is exposure to rapidly growing Russian pharmaceutical market (+38% in 2006) and the increasing market share (from 0.47% in 2005 to 0.6% in 2006). The main risk is high dependence on its main product, cardiovascular Mildronate, which makes up 73% (2006) of total sales.

    Norma Q4 expected tomorrow. The Estonian automotive sub-supplier Norma is expected to report Q4 this Thursday (Feb 8th) before market opening. Of our main interest: (1) has AvtoVaz picked up in sales (especially Lada Kalina), (2) how collective Christmas vacation at Autoliv has affected sales to Sweden, (3) comments on the new supply contract with AvtoVaz for 2007.

    Estonia catches Portugal. According to the CIA's World Factbook 2006, Estonia's estimated GDP per capita (PPP) in 2006 amounted to USD 19,600. Hence, Estonia has passed one of the "old" EU countries Portugal, whose corresponding figure came in at USD 19,100. For Latvia and Lithuania, GDP per capita reached USD 15,400 and USD 15,100, respectively. The figures were USD 31,600 for Sweden, USD 43,500 for USA, and 31,400 for UK.

  • Shark seletab täna lahti, miks pidev turu ülesliikumine aktiivsetele turuosalistele meeltmööda ei ole ning millest passiivsed buy-and-hold tüüpi investorid ainult unistavadki. Reeglina püsivad rallid on just need, kus tõusule järgneb väike korrektsioon, mille pullid taas üles ostavad. Eksponentsiaalsed liikumised panevad aga aktiivseid turuosalisi raha turult ära tooma ning selle tagasipanemine toimub oluliselt vastumeelsemalt kui tasapisi korrektsioonidega tõusnud turul.

    Beware the Cisco Good Vibes

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/7/2007 9:08 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Like the Mississippi, it just keeps rolling along. Let it roll. Let it roll on full flood, inexorable, irresistible, benignant, to broader lands and better days."

    -- Winston Churchill

    Good news from Cisco has the market rolling along to the upside once again. For a while yesterday technology stocks looked ready to succumb to some profit taking but by the end of the day the bears had once again proved that they are just a minor nuisance that the bulls are free to ignore.

    Cisco has technology stocks perking up this morning after some strong guidance, but we need to keep in mind that quite a few times lately strong earnings from a big-cap technology players has led to some aggressive profit taking. I certainly would be not too quick to jump on Cisco with the hope that the good report is going to drive it straight up.

    My attitude about the market now is that I simply have to respect the fact that it just keeps rolling along to the upside. All the arguments about why that shouldn't persist are well known and just don't matter.

    One thing many casual market players have a hard time understanding is why many market pros are not thrilled when the indices move straight up. Isn't it a good thing that stock prices just keep going higher and higher?

    Sure, if you were fully invested in the right stocks and holding for the longer term. Nothing is better than for the buy-and-hold investor than a market that never corrects.

    The 'professional' and active investor tends to look at things a bit differently. Opportunity comes from volatility. To make the big money the active investor needs pullbacks and surges and shifting action so that he can utilize his ability to time the market and take advantage of emotional swings.

    A steady drip higher simply doesn't provide a good supply of opportunities for the active investor. Finding new stocks to buy becomes more difficult each day in a steady uptrend as entry points become more extended. Markets that go straight up aren't all that wonderful if you watch the market all day and are itching to stay active.

    We have a positive start to the day primarily due to Cisco. Overseas markets were mixed with some strength in Europe as mining and utilities lead. Oil is trading up once again.
  • AVNX heade tulemuste peale eelturul +5,5 , täna võib hind tõusta 2,30 ni. hetkel 2,13.
  • Cisco tuli eile tulemustega ning sealne positiivsus aitab kaasa turu hommikusele tõusule. Ralph Lauren(RL) see-eest teatas in-line tulemused, kuid alandas 2008. aasta oodatavaid kasuminumbreid. Arvestades, et need jäävad vahemikku $3.95 - $4.05, kauples ettevõte eile 21x 2008. aasta oodataval kasumil. Ei saa öelda, et see oleks odav...

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    CSCO +5.4% (also Baird upgrade), IVAC +21% (also Needham upgrade), FEIC +13% (also Credit Suisse upgrade), AZPN +13%, MDCI +8.5%, MFLX +10.4% (also Baird upgrade), CELL +7.1%, ALVR +5.8% (also OpCo upgrade), APOL +4.2%, IIG +4.1%, CSC +4%, CRXL +3.2%, TZOO +1.5% (also upgrades from Stifel and First Albany), BOBJ +1% (also upgrades from Soleil and Baird)... Other News: WLC +31% (to be acquired), NTR +20% (to sell its retail mortgage banking unit), IFX +7% (wins Nokia deal for entry-level phones; also UBS upgrade), MAMA +5.9% (extends yesterday's late move), EPEX +6.5% (Raymond James upgrade), ARTE +6.7% (announces commercial launch of AtreFill), TSL +5.6% (extends recent momentum, +20% in a week), TIVO +7.3% (announces deal with Amazon), ZVUE +4.8% (extends recent momentum, +50% in 2 days), IMAX +4.6% (signs 2 theatre deals in China), BHP +4.5% (co says it will buyback $10 bln in stock), FNSR +4.3% (in sympathy with CSCO), BRCM +4.1% (Morgan Stanley upgrade), ERJ +1.6%, MOT +1.4% (hearing Bear Stearns making positive comments).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    EXBD -11%, VIMC -9% (guidance only), WIRE -7.5%, GHDX -6%, DIOD -4.9%, VFC -4.9%, MEDI -4.7%, WHR -3.8%, ORCT -3.8%, NUS -3.6%, RMD -3.5% (also First Albany downgrade), CAKE -3.4%, CCJ -3%, ACTS -2.7% (also Credit Suisse downgrade), RL -2.9%, LMC -2.4%, TRMP -2.4%... Other News: EAGL -17% (announces withdrawal by General Atlantic from 'going private' proposal), BRKR -5.4% (prices offering), NAV -4.8% (to be delisted), ILA -4.7% (to be acquired, but at price below yesterday's close), FRX -4% (ends collaboration on Faropenem; also Citigroup downgrades to Sell), SAP -1.1%.
  • Mõnda aega tagasi tutvustasime LHV PRO all Doug Kassi suurimat lühikest positsiooni IYR ning sellest ajast saadik on paljude ettevõtete preemia NAVi suhtes veelgi suurenenud.

    Täna tõmbas Vornado Rlty Trust (VNO) tagasi oma Equity Office Properties (EOP) ostupakkumise, kus ütles, et makstav preemia löömaks Blackstone hiljutist pakkumist ei ole nende aktsionäride huvites.
  • The E.I.A. reports that crude oil inventories had a draw 449K barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 2.0 mln barrels); gasoline inventories had a build of 2.6 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a build of 1.625 mln); distillate inventories had a draw of 3.632 mln barrels (Bloomberg consensus is a draw of 3.0 mln barrels).

    Demand: Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand is up 3.9% y/y; Distillate fuel demand is up 3.6% y/y; Jet fuel demand is up 6.3% y/y.

    Väikese tagasivaatena olgu öeldud, et lennukikütuse jätkuv tugev nõudluse kasv korreleerub hästi Tesoro(TSO) poolt kümmekond päeva tagasi peetud konverentsikõnega, kus räägiti, et just lennukikütuse toodete pealt teeniti suurimat crack spreadi.

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