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Börsipäev 21. veebruar

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  • Lehman Brothers downgrades Motorola (MOT 19.17) to Equal-Weight from Overweight

    Susquehanna initiates Zumiez (ZUMZ 35.70) with a Positive, as they believe the retailer commands a highly differentiated niche in the youth market, coupled with a distinctive culture providing the backbone for many years of top-line growth in excess of 20%

    ThinkEquity downgrades Palm (PALM 16.19) to Accumulate from Buy

    Lehman initiates Polo Ralph Lauren (RL 88.59) with an Overweight and a $100 tg

    tPrudential raises their Apple (AAPL) Mar qtr EPS estimate to $0.68 from $0.64, $0.07 ahead of Street estimates, based on stronger Mac sales and higher gross margin assumptions. Firm notes their checks suggest a solid MarQ with seasonal iPod weakness being more than offset by stronger Mac sales and higher margins due to a favorable component cost environment.

    Citigroup: WHR stock price has traded higher recently and has disconnected from itsfundamentals. Fundamentally, replacement demand softness, new residentialweakness and incremental raw material headwinds point to a challenging year. Reiterate SELL on WHR and $75 target.

  • Eile teatas oma kvartalitulemused Medtronic (MDT). Kui üldiselt olid tulemused päris kenad, siis ICD müük oli oodatust nõrgem, langedes 2%. Prognoosides oldi viimase tõttu samuti konservatiivsed. Kõik see on suhteliselt üllatav,arvestades, et viimase aja kommentaarid antud turu suunas on olnud pigem positiivsed. Kuigi ühest küljestkaotas MDT ka turuosa, oli põhjus ka üldises nõudluses. See ei ole kindlasti hea uudis juba peale tulemusi langenud Greatbatchile (GB), eriti arvestades, et muu osa käibest (seotud monitooringuga) ei kasva käesoleval aastal juba harjumuseks saanud kiire tempoga - põhjuseks madal tootmisvõimsus. Arvan, et aktsia võib väikese surve alla sattuda, kuna ootused ICD turu taastumise osas on olnud suhteliselt kõrged.

    Wachovia kommenteerib LEH ja BSC seotust sub-prime turuga. Viimasel ajal on sellele aina rohkem tähelepanu pööratud(meenutagem, et hiljuti käis Bofa nende kallal) ning usun, et põhjendusega. Paljud sup-prime laenudega tegelevate ettevõtete juhtkonnad on aktsiad müünud ning RDN/MTG ühinemisuudiste järgne eufooria müüdi päris kiiresti alla.

    Wachovia says that while they believe fears caused by sub-prime events are somewhat overblown, retained interest exposures did go up for both Bear Stearns (BSC 169.43) and Lehman (LEH 83.12) year over year. They say sub-prime retained interest as a percent of equity increased to 10.7% at year end for BSC compared 7.4% last year. They note that LEH exposure increase more growing from 4.2% to 10.4% year over year. While exposures are very manageable, LEH might have a greater burden relatively speaking considering the year over year jump. They are not too concerned around sub-prime as it relates to BSC and LEH and believe it could prove to be a longer term opportunity

    Prudential raises their tgt on ICE to $205 from $160 saying they believe that the NYBOT soft commodity launch is going well, and that electronic volumes are likely to exceed their initial projections. In addition, based on conversations with market participants, the firm says it appears that O.T.C volumes are still strong after a good start in January.

    Core CPI m/m +0.3% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +0.1%

    CPI m/m +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus, +0.4% prior

  • Tarbijahinnaindeksi tuumikosa(core CPI) 0.3% tõus on suurim alates juuni kuust. See tõstab omakorda üle aastase inflatsioonimäära 2.7% peale, mis on selgelt Föderaalreservi 2.5%-st kõrgem (kuigi varasemate sõnavõttude põhjal võiks isegi öelda, et Fed-i nägemus inflatsioonist y-o-y oleks alla 2%) ning see tuhmistab nende investorite lootusei, kes lähiajal lootsid tulevatesse intressikärbetesse.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: STXS +9.7%, TXRH +8.4%, TASR +6.9%, HL +4.5% (also announces sale of Hollister Project), CROX +3.2%... M&A: JUPM +29.7% (NY Post reports GYI in advanced talks to acquire JUPM), CPC +4.4% (to be acquired by private equity firms for $22.53/share in cash)... Other news: STTS +4.2% (trading up in Singapore on technology stock rally), CYTR +2.7% (momentum), FCEL +3.3% (signs 10-Year manufacturing and distribution agreement with South Korea's POSCO Power).
  • Small-Caps Get the Spotlight

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/21/2007 8:49 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Failure is more frequently from want of energy than want of capital."

    -- Daniel Webster

    As I contemplated the market over the weekend, my major concern was whether the bulls had the conviction and energy to push things higher. There were some good technical setups but many were high-level bases that were a bit extended. Also, we have been seeing a fair amount of churning in small-caps and some of the big-cap momentum plays lately, which looked like a sign buyers were becoming a bit skittish and taking a shorter-term approach.

    Yesterday it turned out that none of that mattered. The bulls got excited once again and still had plenty of buying energy. After a little dip in the morning that sucked in a few bears and shook out some weak bulls, the small-caps were in play and the trading was aggressive. Things were a bit different than what we have seen through most of this rally as small-caps were the clear leader.

    For the most part it has been the big-caps that have been the driver and the small-caps that have had to play catch-up. Yesterday the speculative action in the smaller and secondary stocks took center stage for the first time in a while and that helped elevate the positive sentiment quite a bit.

    Will that action continue?

    There is nothing out there to indicate otherwise. The uptrend is intact, news flow positive and apparently plenty of hot money is looking for a place to go. Betting on a suddenly reversal certainly doesn't seem warranted. On the other hand, in the short term we are somewhat extended technically and need some consolidation at this juncture but when the hot money wants to play they don't much care about extended conditions.

    Overseas markets aren't seeing any sympathetic buying following our strength. London is down again on fears of interest rate hikes and Tokyo is down slightly as rates were hiked 0.5% by the Bank of Japan. That has caused some slight strength in the yen, which is helping out the price of gold this morning. Oil remains under pressure.
  • Eelmisel reedel soovitasime PRO all Peabody Energy't(BTU). Äärmiselt huvitav ja mainekas ettevõte ning mitte just kuigi tihti ei kauple selliste tulevikuväljavaadetega ettevõte nii mõisliku valuatsiooni eest(hetkel pisut peale 7x 2007. aasta EBITDAt). Idee väljalaskmisel viitasime ka Foundation Coali(FCL) nõrkadele tulemustele, mis tulemustejärgselt väga efektselt üles osteti. Selline liikumine näitab tavaliselt, et sektoris valitsev negatiivsus on juba aktsia hindadesse sisse arvestatud, mistõttu ei tohiks seda kindlasti ignoreerida.

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