Börsipäev 23. veebruar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Merko reports stellar Q4. The Q4 sales came in at EUR 85.9m, equal to a y-o-y increase of 75.7%. The Q4 gross profit came in at EUR 13.6m, corresponding to a margin of 15.8%. The Q4 Pre-Tax profit amounted to EUR 17.5m, equal to a margin of 20.2%. Adjusted for one-off items, the Q4 Pre-Tax profit was EUR 9.1m (margin 10.6%). In Q4, the construction market didn't show any signs of a slowdown, and the short-term outlook remains positive. We expect significant extraordinary profits also in Q1, when the proceeds from Tornimäe apartment building should come in. The share trades at a PER 2006 of 11.2x including one-off profits or at a PER 2006 of 15.0x excluding one-off items.

    Eesti Ehitus cancels a contract. The company announced that it had cancelled a construction contract with Grove Invest OÜ due to the breach of contractual obligations. According to the agreement, Eesti Ehitus was to perform the renovation works of Luther residential block, and also to build two parking houses. The two main reasons for the cancellation were that Grove Invest had failed to deliver a sufficiently detailed construction project required for the performance of the works, and it also had failed to obtain the permits and approvals specified in the contract. By the end of January, Eesti Ehitus had completed 34.4% of the project with total cost of EEK 213m (EUR 13.6m). As the company has already received the amounts for the work done so far, we do not see major negative effects unless it turns out that the cancellation was not lawful.

    Estonia's unemployment down to 5.9%. According to Statistics Estonia, last year's unemployment dropped to the level of the beginning of nineties and came in at 5.9%. The annual average unemployment rate was lower than that last in 1992. The unemployment among Estonians has decreased quite steadily since 2001 and dropped to 4% in 2006. The unemployment rate of non-Estonians has decreased rapidly only during last two years.

    World's first e-voting. Estonia will hold the national parliamentary election in the beginning of March. The country, which has the highest rate of public Internet access points per capita in the world, plans to become the first country to allow voting via the Internet. E-voting was used in more limited local elections in 2005. "I will be voting in these elections via internet, it is a good system and I think my grandfather, who is over 80, will be doing the same as well, he already calls me on Skype," said Toomas Talts, a technology worker who tested the system. It is again a fresh sign of Estonia's strong embrace of technology.

    Ventspils Nafta's COB arrested. Mamerts Vaivads, the COB of Ventspils Nafta was arrested on Wednesday while having dinner in a restaurant in Riga. The man was arrested by anti-corruption agency. Mr Vaivads is also the COB of Latvian Shipping Company.

  • Can't Fight the Bullishness

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/23/2007 8:44 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines. With consistency a great soul has simply nothing to do."

    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    For many months now the market action has been consistently positive. Each time we threaten to roll over, we spring back to new highs and all dips are eventually bought. It has been a market where anything other than complete and total bullishness has been the wrong call.

    There is nothing out there to indicate that this consistent bullishness won't continue. The technical conditions remain positive, the news flow benign and bullish market players are showing steely resolve. As the old saying goes, 'The trend is your friend' and there is little question which direction that trend is heading.

    So, those of us who wish to make some money continue to bow to the foolish consistency that has become the market trend. There is little to do but honor it and partake of what it offers but that doesn't mean we become true believers in its infallability. One day conditions will change and it is extremely important that we not be so inured to the consistent bullishness that we are unable to adjust.

    The trick of the market is that for periods of time it hands out great rewards to those who embrace it and trust it and love it. Eventually, though, the market beast will turn on its paramours. It has absolutely no loyalty to those who support it for long periods of time. We must always keep that fact in mind even when the action is consistently bullish, as it now. Enjoy the consistent bullishness but always cast a wary eye when it seems it will never end.

    As we finish up the week the semiconductors and small-caps have become market leaders while the big-caps that dominate the DJIA have faltered. One thing that we know about the market is that traders always goes back to what's worked recently and that means small-cap momentum, and now, maybe, semiconductors. If those trends falter then we need to adjust but for now it is consistency, not creative thinking, that is paying the bills.

    We have a flat start this morning with little news flow. Overseas markets did little, oil is up slightly and gold down. There is very little going on.


    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: VRGY +24.7%, RRGB +8.1%, AVR +6.9%, HRB +5.4%, BOOM +4.4%, BLDP +3.8%... M&A: SEN +33.2% (to be acquired by Cap Rock Holding for $8.15/share in cash), GFR +13.0% (receives $23.50/share buyout proposal from American Financial Group)... Other news: COR +22.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw on positive news on safety profile of lead molecule CX717), NICH +14.4% and EVST +3.9% (CNBC stock picking champ Thomas Ko out positive on both), EPIX +8.0% (profiled in BusinessWeek Online), CHRT +6.6% and STTS +5.9% (Singapore stock index trades to record high), UCTT +5.1% (upgraded to Overweight at JP Morgan), CHTR +4.8% (Cramer positive on stock), IDIX +4.7% (announces Sebivo recommended for approval in European Union as new treatment for chronic Hepatitis B).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: TKLC -10.7% (also Merriman and Opco downgrades), GFIG -6.9%, BEAS -6.1%, ACMR -4.9%, HLTH -4.0%, HLTH -3.8%, CQB -3.7%, INPC -3.5%, MOVE -3.5% (also Deutsche downgrade to Hold), IMH -3.0%... Other news: AVZA -5.9% (prices 4 mln share common stock offering at $6.50/share), DLLR -4.3% (announces pricing of secondary), NIHD -3.0% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), NMX -2.9% (files for common stock shelf offering), CC -3.2% (CFO plans to depart in April).
  • Hetkel käimas veel viimased minutid CHK konverentsikõnelt. Nagu lubatud, postitan ka ülevaate tulemustest ja callist:

    Eile pärast turgu teatas oma tulemused Chesapeake Energy – ettevõte, mida ikka jälginud olen. Ja olgu ette ära öeldud, et tulemused olid head. Minu poolt enne tulemusi kirjutatud nägemust saab lugeda siit.

    Jättes ühekordsed erakorralised tulud välja, teenis CHK kasumit aktsia kohta $0.90, mida on analüütikute oodatud $0.76st tublisti rohkem. Ka müügitulu osas, mis kasvas 2005. aasta suhtes 6.7%, ületati ootusi – müügitulu teeniti $1.87 miljardit vs oodatud $1.78 miljardit. Lahjendatud aktsia kohta kasvas 2006. aastal kasum ca 40%, mis on väga tugev tulemus, arvestades, et 2006. aastal toodi turule pea 30% aktsiaid juurde.

    Tegevusrahavoogu(CFFOP) teenis ettevõte aasta peale kokku $4.0 miljardit(67% tõus 2005. aasta suhtes) ning 2007. aastaks prognoositakse ca $4.9 miljardilist tegevusrahavoogu. Seega hetkel on CHK-l $7-miljardilise võla juures ca 1.5x võlga 2007. aasta tegevusrahavoo kohta. Võlakoorem on küll suur, kuid praeguste rahavoogude juures ‘talutav’.

    Keskmine hind, mida CHK 2006. aastal müüdud gaasi eest sai, oli $8.76. See koos suurema tootmisega seletab suuresti ka CFFOP-i tõusu, kuna 2005. aastal saadi $6.78 müüdud gaasi eest. Kõrgema müügihinna saavutas ettevõte tänu 2005. aasta sügisel möllanud orkaanidele, mil CHK kasutas ajutisi üles hüpanud hindu oma toodangu ette müümiseks. Väljapumbatud gaas asendati 3.48 kordselt uute reservidega (reserve replacement rate) ning seda hinnaga $1.93. Tegevusharu keskmine jääb $3 juurde. Gaasi tootmine on ettevõttel taaskord suurenenud – sedakorda 24.6% võrra. 2007. aastaks prognoositakse ca 18% gaasi pumpamise suurenemist ning 2008. aastaks ca 13%-list suurenemist.

    Väike võrdlus ka XTO 13. veebruari tulemustega – XTO lõi ootusi kõigest 1 sendiga ning müügitulu osas jäädi ootustele alla. Müügitulu tõusis eelmise aasta suhtes 1.9% vs CHK 6.7%.

    Taaskord jätttis juhtkond konverentsikõnel väga hea mulje – üheks heaks näiteks oli see, kus keelduti kommenteerimast ühte oma tegevusrajooni arendustegevust, kuna kardeti, et vastasel juhul võidaksid sellest konkurendid rohkem kui aktsionärid. Tähtis on rõhutada, et CHK näeb võimalust, et service costs võib 2007. aastal langeda! See oleks esimene langus viimase 5 aasta jooksul – hetkel küll ettevõte seda oma prognoosidesse ei lisa, kuid võib pakkuda täiendavat upside’i. Sarnaselt XTO konverentsilt vahendatuga nentis ka CHK tegevdirektor Aubrey Mclendon, et terase hinnad on langenud ja võivad aidata madalamatele kuludele. Gaasi püsivat hinda ettevõtte juhtkond allpool $6 kuni $6.50 ei näe.

    Maagaasi varude koha pealt on juhtkond samuti positiivne – usutakse, et defitsiit eelmise aasta suhtes jääb püsima ka suvel. Nõudluse kasvu gaasi järele prognoositakse ülemaailmselt ca 2.7% aastas.

    Aubrey arvamus tema enda sõnade läbi: ”I look at 2007 as a golden year for value creation for CHK”.  

  • http://www.tfot.info/content/view/115/58/

    Päris huvitav artikkel. Võib LXK-le neg mõjuda mingi moment.

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