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Börsipäev 28. veebruar

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  • Baltic Morning News


    Worldwide correction. The plunge that started from China yesterday extended to Tallinn and the market closed down more than 5.5%. Riga and Vilnius were stronger with 2.5% and 1.6% declines, respectively. All shares in the main list ended in deep red. Harju Elekter (-11.2%), Norma (-8.8%), Tallinna Kaubamaja (-7.8%) and Tallinna Vesi (-7.8%) lost the most. Given that the rest of Europe and the US followed the same path and Asian markets are in the red again (except China), we believe tough times in the Baltics are far from over.

    Baltika (Neutral) reports strong Q4. The Estonian clothing retailer Baltika posted Q4 profits above our forecast. The Q4 gross profit came in at EUR 10.308m (forecast: EUR 9.506m), corresponding to a gross margin of 57.4% (forecast: 53.0%). This is also considerably higher than that in Q4/05, when the gross margin was 53.2%. The Q4 operating profit was EUR 2.326m (forecast: 1.441m), equal to a margin of 12.9% (forecast: 8.0%). The Q4 Pre-Tax profit totalled EUR 2.022m (forecast: EUR 1.274m), corresponding to margin of 11.2% (forecast: 6.5%). Much of the deviation came in from lower than expected cost of goods sold (42.6% of Q4 sales vs. 46.8% a year ago), of which much can be attributed to better intake margins. For 2007, we expect sales growth of 39% (company's forecast 40%) with EPS growth of 41%. Having lost 18% since its peak at the beginning of February, the share trades at a PER 2007 of 16.9x and a PER 2008 of 13.7x, i.e. it now looks attractive on valuation basis, while we need to wait for the sentiment turn in order to upgrade the share.

    Apranga (Acc) delivers Q4 below expectations. The Lithuanian clothing retailer posted Q4 preliminary Pre-Tax profit of LTL 8.3m, corresponding to a Pre-Tax margin of 10.1%, down from 11.0% a year ago. Our Q4 Pre-Tax forecast was LTL 9.7m, equal to a margin of 11.9%. The company confirmed its targets for 2007: sales of LTL 415m (+38% y-o-y) and a Pre-Tax profit of LTL 31m (margin 8.7%), both more or less in-line with our forecast. By 2010, the company plans to reach turnover of LTL 1 billion, i.e. 3.3 times more than in 2006. The PE 2007 of 21.6x is starting to look good, but probably the current sell-off pushes the market down even more. We will keep closely monitoring Baltic retail stocks.

    Eesti Ehitus facing possible court proceeding. According to BBN, Grove Invest is claiming that Eesti Ehitus repays EEK 200m that Grove has paid to the construction company as pre-payment. Eesti Ehitus announced last week it was cancelling the construction contract in the Lutheri estate in Tallinn since Grove had breached the contract. According to Grove, the works performed so far is worth no more than EEK 50m, which it is willing to pay to Eesti Ehitus. The ladder has commented it is currently calculating the total costs involved in the project and is ready to go to court and defend its rights. As the court proceeding will take some time and add uncertainty, we also expect some pressure on the share price.

    Starman (Neutral) Q4 today. We are looking for sales of EUR 3.639m, equal to a y-o-y increase of 13%. Our EBITDA forecast stands at EUR 1.345m, corresponding to a margin of 36.6%. The forecasted Q4 Pre-Tax profit is EUR 0.574m, equal to a margin of 17.3%.

  • Hiina põrgatas end pisut, muu aasia on väga punane.
    USA 200 MA-d ootavad põkkumist.

  • Mis põkkumist? Kas aktsiaga, indeksiga?
    Naz: 200MA ( päevane )- 2284 , indeks 2407. Kaugel veel põkkumisest, sisuliselt peab tulema sama päev, mis eile. Kahtlane.
    DOW: 200MA (päevane )- 11770 , indeks 12216.
  • Nas ja Dow indeksiga. Kui täna ei põkku, põkkub homme. Miinuspäev tuleb ikka!

    Stocker, ära unusta, kui madalal päevasiseselt dow ja nas käisid. All on tühi.
  • kindlalt avaneb miinuses usas, kas ka päeva lõpetab suures miinuses, on iseasi, neljap põrkab, nädalavahetuseks müüakse kõik käest! olid ajad kunagi, kus iga reede kukkus 3% päevas!
  • Ärge nüüd tonti ka maalige, USA avaneb korralikus plussis ja lõpetab ka. Õhk on välja lastud.
  • Mitmed pro-d räägivad oma blogides, et täna nad ei puutu midagi ja lähevad suusatama või värsket õhku hingama. Ühtseid seisukohti pole.
  • Siis nad pole veel piisavalt surnud, st jäigastunud.
  • Kõikjal on langus väga jõuline ja suurte käivetega,suuna muutus on toimunud.Küsimus saab olla ainult languse edasises kiiruses ja kestvuses.
  • kas nyyd on viimaneaeg kõik kiiresti maha myya?
  • Tsiisas kraist, Calmira, kus sa eile olid? Päris kahju Sinust kohe...
  • Soovitan likvideerida kõik või jätta väikesed positsioonid kätte vaid.
  • kas täna miskit uudist usas majanduse kohta ka tulemas?
  • Uudiste kalender
  • 4. kvartali SKP kasvu ülevaadatud näit oligi oodatult esialgsest madalam, kuid ka konsensusootusest pisut madalam. Samal ajal inflatsiooni näitav Chain Deflator oli konsensusootusest suurem.

    Heed the Lessons of Yesterday's Selloff

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/28/2007 8:03 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Character consists of what you do on the third and fourth tries."

    -- James A. Michener

    The most significant thing about the action in the market yesterday wasn't the giant point loss or the intense selling -- the most significant thing was that the large drop likely signals that a significant change in character is taking place.

    For months the market has been chugging along steadily, with buyers stepping up every time that we dipped. Fear and worry were dismissed and the primary focus was to not be left out as an ideal confluence of economic conditions and corporate growth led to ever higher stock prices. Although the market was technically extended, the momentum stayed strong and buyers were lulled into complacency.

    Some will say there was no reason for the abrupt change in market action yesterday. Others will try to blame program trading or other manipulative influences. The fact of the matter is that it's suprising it took so long to have such a dramatic pullback. It is simply the nature of markets to do things that assure a high level of discomfort for many investors. Markets are profitable because at their core they are so frustrating. If they were predictable and easy, we couldn't make so much money trading them.

    The issue for us to contemplate isn't what happened yesterday but to understand how that action will change things going forward. Every major market index suffered key technical breaches. The uptrend lines were broken and if you follow the TA rulebook that means you go to cash and sit on the sidelines.

    More aggressive short-term traders are going to look for a bounce in the next few days, which isn't an unrealistic expectation given the intensity of yesterday's losses. But for the longer-term investor, the focus now turns to what happens on a bounce. The true character of this market will be fully revealed on the second and third tries at a recovery. If those attempts are turned back, we will know that things have changed and that we are likely to see a downtrend that persists for a while.

    Overseas the Shanghai Exchange, which triggered this selloff, managed a bounce of close to 4% as government officials attempted to calm nerves. However, that bounce didn't spill over to other world markets. They are down again across the board although the pullbacks are milder this morning. The London FTSE is down another 1% and the German DAX 0.8%.

    Early indications in the U.S. are for stabilization but we have the very important fourth-quarter GDP number coming up that is likely to cause some action. Keep in mind that many longs who were trapped in yesterday's collapse are probably looking for exit points. They suffered some psychological as well as financial damage and they would prefer safety and security; that is very likely to pressure any early bounces. A strong open this morning carries a high risk of being sold aggressively.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: ADBL +12.6% (also upgraded at Jefferies & Merriman), VSNT +8.9%, DSCO +8.2%, DECK +5.0%, CHINA +4.2% (also China stocks rebounding pre-mkt)... M&A: NXL +13.5% (to be acquired by Centro Properties Group), EAGL +6.2% (to be taken private at $36/share)... China stocks bounce: ACH +6.2%, TSL +5.1%, CAF +4.7%, LFC +4.6%, CHL +4.5%, SOLF +4.3%... Other news: IGLD +4.5% (up following yesterday's news that co will sell shares in two units), XOMA +4.0% (co and Takeda expand collaboration).

    Chain Deflator-prelim +1.7% vs +1.5% consensus, prior 1.5%
    GDP-prelim +2.2% vs +2.3% consensus, prior +3.5%
  • Karune vaade Sprint Nexteli(S) võimalikule ülevõtmisele:

    CNNMoney.com reports tt's been a tumultuous couple of months for Sprint Nextel, and that has led to some speculation that the wireless co could be a takeover target. Sprint Nextel Wednesday reported Q4 sales and profits that were in line with Wall Street forecasts. And while it gained subscribers overall, it said it lost 306,000 so-called postpaid subscribers during the quarter. These subscribers, who pay based on their prior month's usage, tend to be more profitable customers for Sprint than other subscribers. In addition, Sprint Nextel warned in Jan that its sales for 2007 would be lower than expected. Yet, the stock is up nearly 7% in the past two weeks. Patrick Comack, an analyst with Zachary Investment Research, said that buyout rumors are the reason for the stock's increase. Comack said he's heard from hedge fund managers that cable cos Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable, the cable subsidiary of media giant Time Warner (TWX) which will soon begin trading as a separate stock, have been mentioned as potential buyers. But Comack and other analysts said that investors should not buy into the takeover hype. For one, both Comcast and Time Warner Cable are partnering with Sprint to offer wireless service to their cable customers. So while takeover rumors aren't completely out of left field, there's probably no compelling need for either co to own wireless networks at this time.
  • Viimane võimalus ID kaardiga hääletada. 20:00 hääletamine lõpeb. Huvitav, palju hääli kokku tuleb.

    Seisuga 28. veebruar kell 19:30 oli hääletajaid 29369
  • 31000 e-häält on täitsa reaalne tulemus.
  • uh tehtud hääletatud!
    Loodame, et Edkars on rahul!
  • igav on:(, turg seisab, peab vist õlle võtma, et õhtune langus ära oodata!
  • www.valimised.ee leheküljelt:
    E-hääletamine on lõppenud.
    Seisuga 28.02. kl 20.00 oli e-hääletajaid 30275.
  • Igav on sellepärast, et kõik heietavad: müün, ei müü, müün, ei müü, müün.... ei müü.... müün.... ... ... ah viskame täringuid.
  • Mis tänaseid USA turge puudutab, siis huvitaval kombel on käibed väga korralikud, aga liikumised pea olematud. Kristjan ütleks vist selle kohta, et tegemist on distributsiooniga ;)

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