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Börsipäev 2. märts

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  • Mööduv nädal on olnud maailma aktsiaturgudele viimaste kuude jooksul üks verisemaid.

    Asian stocks dropped, extending the biggest weekly losses for global equities in eight months, on concern the U.S. economy will slow. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Asia-Pacific Index slid 0.8% to 142.43 at 7:32 p.m. in Tokyo. It has fallen 3.8% this week, the most since July. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 1.4 %, losing 5.3 percent in the past five days, its worst weekly performance since June. The Hang Seng climbed 0.5%, ending a five-day, 7% slump, its longest losing streak in 17 months. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated A shares listed on China's two exchanges, added 1.4%, narrowing its slump from a record this week to 6.3%.

    European stocks head for worst week since start of Iraq war
  • Sarnaselt eilsega vaatab tänagi treiderist vastu kuhjaga punast värvi. Futuurid ca -0.8% miinuses.

    Know Your Time Frames

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/2/2007 8:18 AM EST
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "The difference between a mountain and a molehill is your perspective."

    -- Al Neuharth

    Despite a fairly impressive 170-point rebound in the DJIA yesterday the market remains technically troubled. All major indices have breached uptrend lines and support levels, and buyers are obviously jittery. How you handle this market depends on your perspective.

    For most market players it is the time to increase cash levels and be patient when it comes to new buys. It certainly is possible the market will find some support and steadily work higher again but it is a risky bet. By just about any measure there has been a significant change in the character and psychology in the market.

    For months investors had nary a worry as we steadily moved higher. It was downright foolish to not buy when we had even a brief pullback. The drubbing on Tuesday changed that thinking and the steep drop yesterday morning is a good example of how nervous some folks have become. Sure, we did bounce back but the fact that so many sold into that steep fall tells us that there is fear in the air.

    It is particularly important in this environment to be very clear about your perspective and time frame. For the short-term trader, markets that are breaking down like this provide some good opportunities to play quick bounces when the pain and despair become extreme. Just make sure if you play upside at this point that you don't lose sight that the trend has changed. Don't let short-term trades turn you into a longer-term bull. Get in and get out and if you are wrong take your hit and don't look back.

    As the market struggles you are going to hear many pundits talk about how this weakness is a buying opportunity, how the worst is over, how nothing has really changed, and how you shouldn't be overly negative.

    Maybe, but there is no reason to take a leap of faith at this point. Make the market prove that the worst is over. If there are stocks you like and want to buy, wait until they find some support, form bases and show some inclination to turn up. When you buy stocks that are going straight down, they have a nasty habit of continuing to go down even though you don't think there is any good fundamental reason for them to do so.

    We have a soft open shaping up once again. Stocks found a little support in Europe but failed to produce much of a bounce. The Nikkei fell for the fourth-straight day as the yen strengthened again and concerns grew that exporters would be pressured by a slowing U.S. economy and an expensive currency. In addition, the unwinding of the yen carry trade -- where investors borrow cheap money in Japan and invest it in higher-yielding investments in other countries -- is unwinding and keeping the pressure on the situation.

    It's Friday and it has been a winning weak for the bears, so a little short-covering to lock in gains before the weekend might be expected. However, buyers are obviously nervous and bounces are going to be viewed as opportunities to exit, rather than the beginning of a recovery.
  • Huvitavad sõnavõtud St. Louis Föderaalreservi liikmelt Poole'ilt:

    Poole - Probability of U.S. recession "a little higher" now than it was two years ago
    Poole - U.S. recession always possible but probability not very high
    Poole says sees nothing in carry trades that is disruptive at this stage
    Poole - Stock market valuation "does not seem to be elevated" at this time
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: IMMR +36.2% (co and Sony conclude their patent litigation, enter into new business agreement; also reported Q4), VVUS +3.8%... M&A: DRTE +23.1% (to be acquired by Cegedim for $16/share)... Other news: SUPG +9.3% (profiled in BusinessWeek; also upgraded to Hold at Lazard), DF +9.2% (announces $15/share special cash dividend; guides), PKX +4.8% (Reuters reports Berkshire Hathaway held 4% stake as of Dec 31), INTU +4.0% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), ALTI +3.9% (profiled in BusinessWeek), BRLC +2.6% (initiated with a Buy and $13 tgt at Cantor Fitzgerald), SPN +2.5% (to replace MBRK in S&P MidCap 400), UNH +1.4% (expects to become current with SEC filings on or before March 15).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: TSAI -13.1%, CMOS -8.7%, OVTI -8.4%, NOVL -4.5%... Mortgage lenders down in sympathy after CFC reported sharp increases in late payments & IMH -13.1% delays filing, discloses material weakness: LEND -8.6%, NEW -4.1%, NFI -1.8%... Other news: NOVN -4.6% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), HMY -3.6% (gold trading lower on the Comex).
    BofA is reiterating their negative call on mortgage finance group despite weakness. Firm maintains their sell on Countrywide (CFC) and IndyMac (NDE) as they affirm that '07 mortgage volumes are likely to be below expectations. Firm's analysis of the Mortgage Bankers Association's survey of mortgage volume has overestimated actual origination volume in 12 of the last 13 quarters. They est $2 trillion in '07, below the MBA est of $2.4 trillion. Also note that deteriorating risk perception is creeping into Commerical MBS credit spreads, of which they cover exposed names Northstar Realty Finance (NRF) and JER Investors Trust (JRT).

    BofA notes that steel capital spending to double in 2007. Aluminum capital spending is expected to fall 6% in 2007 but remains at elevated levels compared to historical ranges. Firm says the return of capital to shareholders is more likely to decline. Overall, firm believes metal stocks can be held in the current environment. Supply-demand trends in aluminum appear relatively balanced and price risk is more weighted to the upside in 2007. Firm has a positive outlook for steel, but are more cautious on valuation. In Steel, IPSCO (IPS) has an attractive growth profile and trades at a 10-15% valuation discount to the steel group. In Aluminum, they like Alcan's (AL) growth pipeline as underlying EPS growth should meet or exceed Alcoa (AA).
  • Avasime Pro all uue investeerimisidee - Phase Forward(PFWD). Ettevõte on Pro klientidele juba varasemast tuttav ning oleme selle käekäiku jälginud ka pärast idee sulgemist eelmise aasta märtsis. Viimaste päevade langus on muutnud aktsiahinna meie jaoks taas sisenemise jaoks sobivaks.
  • PALM täna kõvas plussis.
    Kaua sellise languse puhul vastu peab.
    Kas minna lühikeseks?
    Ei suuda otsustada kas võtta riski.
  • Turu langus on kaasa tirinud ka Thor Industriese(THO), mis meil Pro all investeerimissoovitusena väljas oli ning kukkunud läbi meie poolt seatud päevasisese break-even stopptaseme $41 peal - viivuks liiguti sellest läbi juba isegi eile. Stop-taseme seadmise põhjuseid antud ideele selgitasime viimane kord ka vastavas kommentaaris THO kohta. Lisan ametlikku sulgemisteate hiljem ka Pro alla.
  • mina lootsin qqqq -1,7 ja dow 1, 2% langust, aga loodame aasias tugevat miinust esmaspäevaks!

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