Börsipäev 9. aprill
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Friedman Billings upgrades Peabody Energy (BTU 43.74) to Outperform from Market Perform and increases their tgt to $70 from $68, as it benefits from lack of CAPP exposure, growth profile, rising international demand, and partially benefiting from the scrubber trend
CIBC downgrades Cameco (CCJ 46.15) to Sector Performer from Outperformer, based on valuation and risks that remain in relation to the Cigar Lake remediation plans
CIBC notes OPXT shares have fallen 27% since they initiated nearly two weeks ago, over investor concerns regarding the 10G pricing environment. They believe these concerns are unfounded and the co's underlying fundamentals are intact, presenting an appealing buying opportunity at these levels. Firm says after speaking with more than 25 cos within the industry at the OFC conference, they believe there has been no material change in the 10G pricing environment over the past few months. ASP declines have remained in the 2-4% Q/Q band, which has been in line with co expectations. Firm sees CSCO's product cycles in 2007 favoring OPXT.
CIBC raises their tgt on GET to $70 from $63 saying that as a result of the GET investor event and mgmt's updated guidance, they are increasingly positive on the shares. With the sale of Bass Pro, the probable sale of ResortQuest and addition of San Diego, firm says the long-term investors in GET shares should see the rewards for their patience in 2007. Firm is revising their CCF ests for 2008 and 2010 for D.C. to $55.1 mln and $104.4 mln from $32.9 mln and $73.9 mln. For the corporation, They are revising their CCF ests for 2007 and 2008 to $161.9 mln and $235.1 mln from $169.2 mln and $220.6 mln
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Friedman Billings believes that March was a strong month for most retailers. They believe that the weather issues that dampened sales in Jan and Feb largely disappeared by March. Firm says most retailers have been showing their spring merchandise since early Feb, but it took a change towards warmer weather in March for the merchandise to sell. They believe that the warmer weather in early March unleashed a torrent of pent up demand that has spurred strong sales in the specialty apparel space throughout the month. Firm expects a mixed bag for comps, and given the current macroeconomic issues (energy prices, home value declines, increasing credit defaults), they are maintaining out cautious outlook on the sector.
Merriman says most retailers are expected to report March sales results on Thursday April 12. They believe sales for most retailers started slow in March, hampered by a lack of compelling fashion trends and unusually cold spring temperatures for most of the country. However, firm believes sales improved along with the weather, and most of the traditional reporting retailers, whose months ended April 7, should have been helped by the move of Easter holiday selling into the March timeframe vs. April last year. According to FirstCall, analysts est that total retail comparable-store sales for March should increase 4.1%.
Roth says based on easy comparisons due to an earlier Easter and the related Spring Break shopping and given that March is the five week month of the quarter, they expect March comps to be quite strong. Additionally, during the latter part of the month, firm believes March comps were fueled by pent up demand for Spring apparel as temperatures started to rise; however lingering Winter weather on and off during the month probably cut into March's overall performance. Within firm's universe, they believe the best performers will be WTSLA, followed by PSUN. They expect BEBE to post a comp increase in the low single digit range while they expect both CACH and HOTT to post a flat comp.
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Friday's Jobs Numbers Shake Things Up
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/9/2007 8:47 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Not everything that can be counted, counts. And not everything that counts can be counted."
-- Albert Einstein
The strong jobs numbers on Friday morning are shaking things up as we kick off the week. The numbers were so strong that the chances that the Fed will cut interest rates in the next few months is greatly reduced. Strong employment has the tendency to increase inflationary pressures and therefore the Fed is likely to move slowly.
Clearly the market would like to see a less hawkish Fed but the bigger question is whether these numbers indicate that the economy is robust and not suffering from negative fallout due to woes in the real estate market and some signs of softening in certain industries. Does the fact that we are seeing good jobs growth and declining unemployment offset the growing number of mortgage foreclosures? The problems in the mortgage market were highlighted once again this morning by a warning from American Home Mortgage (AHM). Although many are hoping that housing may be close to a bottom, that is a questionable proposition.
The question this morning is whether a reduction in the chances for a near-term rate cut will be offset by hope that the jobs numbers indicate a healthy economy. If we continue to see good economic data we will be in good shape but if there are signs of weakness then the robust jobs numbers actually become a negative because they increase inflationary pressures. A struggling economy with strong jobs growth will put the Fed in a particularly difficult position because they won't provide a stimulus because of inflationary concerns.
So while the market is responding favorably to the jobs report this morning it doesn't mean it will be clear sailing from here. Economic questions still remain and the kickoff of earnings season will also affect the market mood. Market players were in a buying mood last week and are feeling pretty good but we aren't out of the woods technically. The rally was on average volume and that has left us somewhat extended on a short-term basis.
The biggest positive this market has going for it is a pervasive lack of love. Few seem anxious to fully embrace this market and that has left plenty of buying power on the sidelines to provide support. Dip buyers have consistently be rewarded when they jump on weakness and that is containing any downside.
We have a very tricky set of circumstances to deal with right now and we have to be careful in concluding that the jobs report means that things are all clear. First-quarter earnings will ultimately set the mood for the next major market move and we'll have to wait to see how that plays out.
We have a strong open this morning. Asian stocks moved higher overnight mainly because of strength in the dollar, which helped exporters like Toyota. Europe was closed for the Easter Monday holiday. -
Ilusate tulemustega tuli täna Schnitzer Steel Industries(SCHN). Kel ettevõtte tegevuste vastu rohkem huvi, tasub kasutada LHV artiklite otsingumootorit, kuna olen sellest ettevõttest varem ka juba kirjutanud. Kasumit teeniti 92 senti aktsia kohta ning müügitulu kasvas eelmise aastaga võrreldes 50%. Analüütikute ootusi löödi tugevalt.
Co notes that for Q3 international markets for scrap metal are expected to be robust. Based on sales booked to date and the Company's current view of the markets, average net selling prices during the third quarter are expected to be at record levels, approximately $40-$50 per ton higher than the prices in the recently completed second quarter.
Tulemuste hooaeg ongi tasapisi hoogu sisse saamas. Homme peale turgu teeb 1. kvartali tulemustega otsa lahti nagu ikka Alcoa(AA), kolmapäeval teatavad oma tulemused peale turgu Bed, Bath & Beyond(BBBY), Genentech(DNA), Research in Motion(RIMM) ning reedel enne turgu ka General Electric(GE).
Ülespoole avanevad:
DOW +8.4% (The Sunday Express reports that a consortium of investors is preparing a $50 bln bid), USAT +20% (announces deal with large bottler), NCTY +14% (ERTS to buy 19% stake in co - Reuters), ANR +11.5% (Sun Capital discloses 5% stake in 13G filing), ALLT +11% (mentioned positively in Barron's), DNDN +11% (extends 20% move from last Thursday, other biotechs also moving: NUVO +19%, CVTX +9%, SIGA +4.8%, CEGE +4.6%), SCHN +10% (reports FebQ), SCUR +8.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), NETL +5.4% (guides higher, announces mgmt changes), STEM +4.8% (trading up ahead of stem cell vote this week; also ASTM +6%), BNI +3.7% (Berkshire acquires 10.9% stake -- NY Times), MEDI +2.5% (gudies above consensus), SUNW +1.2%, Under $3: MEMY +31% (completes Phase 2 study enrollment).
Allapoole avanevad:
DAKT -18% (guides below consensus), AHM -17% (guides lower, also Lehman downgrade; mortgage stocks down in sympathy: NDE -3.7%, CFC -3.5%), VG -14% (judge tells co it cannot seek new customers - WSJ), ARIA -9.5% (delays cancer drug trial), ENCY -7.2% (prices stock offering), ACLS -5.1% (Lehman downgrade), HLF -4.5% (terminates talks with Whitney), FIRE -3.5% (pre-reports Q1 results), NRMX -3.1% (profit taking after 10% move on Thursday), MTRX -2.3% (profit taking after 15% move on Thursday), BRLC -1.7%.
Futuurid indikeerivad turu avanemist plusspoolel ca 0.35% jagu.
