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Börsipäev 11. aprill

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  • Nasdaq 100 jätkuvalt vastupanu all:


    Citigroup kommenteerib Monster Worldwide Inc (MNST) ning kinnitab oma ostusoovitust. Peale 15-protsendilist kukkumistusuvad nad, et pikaajaline investeerimistees on jõus. Hinnasiht $55.

     Reiterating Buy on MNST — Shares have traded off 15%+ in the wake of a Q1negative pre-release on April 4th. While clearly a negative development, we stillbelieve there is a very viable MNST Long thesis, though shares are likely in thepenalty box for some time. Long Thesis Is... 1) Europe provides significant leverage opportunity;2) Competitive position in Europe & U.S. remains strong; 3) Very likely marginexpansion = one of the highest EPS growth outlooks in the Net sector;4) Significant (& now greater) likelihood of buybacks; 5) Hedge against slowingU.S. labor mkt w/international diversification and ad exposure (though latterweakened). Reducing Estimates and Target Price — 2007 revenue goes from $1,398MM to$1,361MM, EPS from $1.65 to $1.57. PT declines from $60 to $55 (14X ’08EV/EBITDA or 26X ’08 EPS) with 24% CAGR for ’06-’09 EBITDA per share.

    JMP Securities downgrades CheckFree (CKFR 38.14) to Outperform from Strong Buy, with a $42 tgt, saying they have incremental information that provides the firm with a greater degree of certainty that Bank of America is planning to transition the payment warehouse portion of its online billpay processing in-house over an unspecified period

    Wachovia upgrades Gap (GPS 18.34) to Outperfrom from Market Perform saying they are beginning to see a path for the turnaround to unfold. The firms says stepping stones on the horizon include: a better-than-expected Spring season, stemming from modest merchandising improvements starting with Old Navy and GapKids, leading to upside in margins and EPS, the potential for more aggressive cost cutting by late Spring and Summer and better product at Old Navy by the Fall when new leadership has fully impacted the assortment

    JMP downgrades Dendreon Corp (DNDN 22.15) to Outperform from Strong Buy and raises their tgt to $24 from $20 based on valuation. The firm says upside scenarios exist, but Dendreon's near-term valuation nearing the top

    Goldman upgrades Infosys Tech (INFY 52.56) to Buy from Neutral

    Friedman Billings notes that following their Asia trip in mid-March, they think earnings guidance is likely to be fairly muted across the analog group, given seasonal weakness that appears likely to continue into 2Q. Firm thinks that this view created some disappointment among investors, given the "bottoming" commentary provided by many companies in mid-1Q, and likely precipitated the pullback they saw over the last two weeks. That said, firm thinks expectations have by now been largely reset, and they still think most names in their group have the potential to show upside during the seasonally stronger 2H. Firm would view any weakness resulting from 2Q guidance as a buying opportunity, with NSM, ISIL, and ONNN among their favorites. 

  • Naftat eksportivas Nigeerias toimuvad sel nädalavahetusel valimised. Poliitilisi rahutusi on riigis olnud juba küllalt ning võib karta, et ka nädalavahetus ei möödu rahulikult.

    WSJ reports the balloting that kicks off in Nigeria Saturday could prove to be a historic event: If the election of a new govt goes smoothly, the transition will mark the first time one civilian govt in Africa's most-populous nation passes power to another. But sporadic violence already has marred the campaign season. Unresolved legal controversies surrounding two candidates could spawn prolonged court battles and possibly postpone voting day. Amid the chaos, some observers are predicting a messy outcome that could result in challenges to the vote or widespread disenchantment with its outcome. That could have broad repercussions well beyond Nigeria, which in recent years has emerged as one of the world's most important energy suppliers. A tumultuous election threatens that supply at a time when production cuts by OPEC -- to which Nigeria belongs -- and a showdown over Iran's nuclear ambitions have stoked world oil prices.
    Cell Genesys kasutab ära lühikese aja jooksul oma pea kahekordistunud aktsiahinda ja toob turule juurde 10.8 miljonit aktsiat. Arvestades, et väljas on pisut üle 62 miljoni aktsia, on lisanduv hulk päris märgatav. Aktsia eelturul ca 8% miinuses.

    CEGE Cell Genesys announces a 10.8 mln share common stock (and warrants for 2.2 mln shares) offering for gross proceeds of $60 mln (6.08 )
    Prudential tõstab DELLi kasumiprognoose. Ettevõte usub, et kasumimarginaale on võimalik kasvatada ning ootab DELLilt ootuspäraseid kvartalitulemusi või isegi nende ületamist.
  • The Bulls Keep the Faith

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/11/2007 8:52 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Stubbornness does have its helpful features. You always know what you're going to be thinking tomorrow."

    -- Glen Bearnan

    Yesterday the Dow finished higher for the eighth straight day in a row. The last time such a streak occurred was in March 2003 when the war in Iraq commenced. The big difference back then was that the market had been downtrending for nearly two years before it turned up. It has pretty much been in an uptrend ever since then.

    The current streak comes at a much different time and place. The gains are coming in a market that has already been rallying for some time and is within shouting distance of all-time highs. This is not a sudden change in sentiment like we had back in 2003 as the uncertainty of the Iraq war played out; this is a market that is already up big, although we seem to be climbing a wall of worry much like we did back then.

    The recent point gains have not been large but the buying has been persistent in the face of a consistently high level of negative sentiment. Even the bulls are having a hard time fully embracing this market given the problems of persistent inflation, a poor housing market and the chances of an economic slowdown. Nonetheless we keep trudging upward, which frustrates the abused bears and the conservative bulls who have been waiting for at least some minor weakness in which to deploy their capital.

    The question we must contemplate is how this will play out. Anticipating that the market is going to roll over at any moment has been a losing strategy. Even after the nasty dip of a month ago we have shrugged it off as if nothing really happened. Market players seem unconcerned about the possibility that anything can go wrong in a market that is apparently flooded with idle capital trying to find a place to go.

    So we have little choice but to respect the action in front of us as we stay vigilant for possible catalysts that could turn the tide. The release of the FOMC meeting minutes could be important this afternoon but the market seems to have already taken in stride the idea the inflation is strong enough to preclude a rate cut. Perhaps earning season will serve as a trigger for profit taking but we'll have to wait and see how things play out next week when the reports from the big guns roll in.

    For now we simply have to admire the stubbornness of the bulls who hear and see no evil. Perhaps the Fed minutes may distract them for a few minutes but the likelihood is that any weakness will be jumped on as a buying opportunity.

    We have a slightly positive open underway as overseas markets were mostly positive. Oil is continuing its rebound and gold is steady.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Gapping up on strong earnings/comps/guidance: TSCO +8.46%.. Other news: CTIC +23.5% (announces XYOTAX has fast track designation), RNVS +9.6% (upgraded to Buy at Maxim), TNE +8.5% (upgraded to Neutral at JP Morgan), GIVN +7.5% (co and Fujinon announce the signing of a strategic agreement), GFI +6.1% (Bloomberg.com reports Edward Pastorini may lead a bid for GFI), CHTR +5.3% (mentioned positively by Cramer), GMO +5.0% (continued momentum), BSM (announces FDA requires no further response on warning letter).
  • Annaly Capital Management (NLY) juht Mike Farrell kommenteerib subslime segadust (intervjuu Jim Crameriga):

  • Täna teatas LHV Pro valik Phase Forward (PFWD), et üks nende juhtivamaid CRO kliente Quintiles pikendab oma lepingut ettevõttega kasutamaks InForm toodet oma kliinilistel katsetustel ka edaspid.

    Phase Forward's InForm solution has been used in nearly 90 percent of all Quintiles EDC trials to date, and will continue to be a technology on which Quintiles provides services to its customers.

    Iseenesest ei ole uudis üllatuseks, kuid investoritel on hea teada, et firma on suutnud säilitada sidemed ühe tähtsaima kliendiga

  • Inflatsiooniohust oleme ka varem rääkinud. Nüüd on ka Fedi protokollist see kole sõnum kinnitust saamas. Jaanuari ja Märtsi vahelisel perioodil on suurenenud majandusega seotud negatiivsed riskid. Jätkuvalt usuvad Föderaalreservi liikmed aga, et majanduskasv on aasta teises pooles kiirenemas. Indeksid liikusid kuuldu peale kiiresti allapoole.

    Major indices drop back toward session lows following release of Fed minutes; DJIA -87, Nas -17, SPX -8
    Fed minutes still project economic pickup later this year
    Fed minutes - increase in subprime mortgage delinquencies could slow recovery in housing sector
    FOMC says housing demand 'leveling out,' no subprime spillover
    Persistence of inflation at recent rates could eventually have adverse effect on economy
    FOMC says investment surprisingly weak, important downside risk
    Fed says labors markets remain 'relatively tight'
    FOMC says data have cast doubt whether inflation on down path
    Fed- Due to growth, inflation uncertainties, statement no longer solely cites chance of more firming
    FOMC says downside econ risks increased between Jan and March
    FOMC dropped words from statement amid 'increased uncertainty'
    Fed minutes say FOMC agreed 'further policy firming' might be needed to foster lower U.S. inflation
    Treasury Budget -$96.3 bln vs -$90 bln consensus

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