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Börsipäev 12. aprill

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  • Mõnda aega tagasi rääkisin börsipäevas hüpoteeklaenude kindlustajate probleemidest ning eile õhtul teatas tulemused MGIC Investment (MTG), mis teenindab peamiselt Florida ja California turgusid. Viimased on kinnisvarahindade languse käes kannatada saanud päris kõvasti ning MTG jäi analüütikute ootustele päris tugevalt alla. Probleemid hüpoteeklaenude äris on ilmselt suuremad, kui esmapilgul oodati.

    MTG MGIC Investment missed by $0.57; missed on revs (57.13 -0.26) Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.14 per share, excluding $3 million of realised losses, $0.57 worse than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.71; revenues rose 0.2% year/year to $369.6 mln vs the $380.7 mln consensus.

    Stifel initiates AAR (AIR 28.09) with a Buy and $34 price tgt citing strong outlook from higher industry outsourcing

    First Albany downgrades Cerner (CERN 55.55) to Neutral from Buy saying valuation leaves little room for error

    Prudential initiates on Leap Wireless (LEAP 71.66) with an Overweight and $90 tgt saying they view Leap as a compelling growth story and expect revenues to quintuple over the next decade

    UBS upgrades Kraft Foods (KFT 32.02) to Buy from Neutral

    RBC initiates Columbus Mckinnon (CMCO 22.05) with a Top Pick and a $30 tgt

    Deutsche Bank initiates Money Center Banks with a Neutral bias saying the businesses benefit from a degree of capital markets and other international activities, mitigated by a drag from traditional banking and underperformance vs. pure-plays. The firm initiates Citigroup (C 51.80) with a Buy and a $62 tgt and also initiates Bank of America (BAC 50.51) and JP Morgan Chase (JPM 49.15) with a $57 and $55 tgt.

    HSBC upgrades LRCX to Overweight from Neutral and raise their tgt to $60 from $55 based on increased confidence in cyclical resiliency of rev and EPS. The firm expects F3Q EPS surprise.

    Brean Murray strongly suspect that DNDN made a request believing it would have otherwise received only an Approvable Letter mandating positive D9902B survival results. Firm says there really is not much governing what can be asked of the panel at voting time, and DNDN must now hope that the FDA defines "substantial" the same way that 13 panelists did. Firm strongly believes that the number of HRPC patients treated with Provenge is not high enough to argue conclusively that Provenge's benefits outweigh its risks.

  • Futuurid päeva alustamas negatiivsel toonil. Lisaks märtsi statistika, mis tõstatab taas inflatsiooniprobleemi:

    Import Prices ex-oil +0.3%, prior -0.1%

    Export Prices ex-ag +0.6% , prior +0.6%
  • Wal-Mart (WMT) väidab, et kuigi kasumiprognoos on saavutatav, saab see olema keeruline:

    "While the earnings guidance is still attainable, given the tough sales environment for the April period, it will be a challenge." The Company expects comparable sales in the U.S. for the April four-week reporting period to be flat to down 2 percent, due to the Easter calendar shift.

  • Negativity the Only Positive in This Market

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/12/2007 8:59 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "To be great is to be misunderstood."

    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    Did the market misunderstand what the Fed was really saying when it rallied nearly 200 points after the FOMC policy statement was issued on March 21?

    After reviewing the minutes of the meeting that gave rise to that policy statement, it sure looks that way. The minutes make it quite clear that the Fed changed its policy statement not because it was less concerned about inflation but because it was more concerned about slowing economic growth and looking for more flexibility. In fact, the Fed hinted it was even more concerned about inflation, and the strong jobs number last week probably didn't do anything to decrease those fears.

    The question for us is whether this really changes anything. For a while the market was rallying, at least in part because of hope that an interest rate cut would be forthcoming sooner rather than later. When that hope became less clear the bulls focused on the fact that the subprime mortgage fallout seemed to be contained, jobs growth was good, and the economy appeared to be chugging along nicely. Perhaps that still is the case, but the Fed minutes certainly undermine confidence in that scenario to a fair degree.

    There are definitely some economic issues that will serve as a headwind and it doesn't look like the Fed is going to help out the market much so that means we need to look to earnings, sentiment and liquidity to keep this rally going. The first big test for earnings was last night when RIMM reported and that did not turn out well. The report was just inline and the momentum players bailed out and drove it down $10 immediately. The stock is up a bit this morning because of positive comments from Goldman, but it is one we'll have to watch as a measure of the hot money.

    The one thing that has helped the market tremendously in recent weeks is negative sentiment. Even though the major indices are within shouting distance of their highs, we have had the sort of sentiment you'd expect only after a major pullback. High negative sentiment means that there is cash on the sidelines that can serve as support, and that may keep the downside contained.

    Of course, those buyers are going to be happy to sit on the sidelines and do nothing if the market starts to struggle. They have been very tenacious dip buyers for the most part but that can change quickly. The negative sentiment and the liquidity on the sidelines is a positive but that does not preclude the possibility of some downside.

    We have a soft open this morning as overseas markets fell in sympathy overnight. There is little news flow, which is likely to give us dome choppy trading. Be careful out there. It is likely to be quite tricky.
  • Tõepoolest, peaks olema ettevaatlik, eriti lähimanädala jooksul: OMX analüütikud on avaldanud ohtu, et turg võib minna alla analoogselt sellele mis oli veebruari lõppus..
  • Maagaasi varud tõusid 23 bcfi. Eelmine aasta tõusid samal nädalal varud 19 bcfi ja 5 aasta keskmine on +9 bcf.
  • Pooljuhtide töötlemisega seotud ettevõte Lam Research (LRCX) lõi kasumiootusi aktsia kohta 9 sendi võrra ning kaupleb järelturul ca pool dollarit päevalõpu sulgemishinnast kõrgemal.

    Reports Q3 (Mar) earnings of $1.15 per share, $0.09 better than the Reuters Estimates consensus of $1.06; revenues rose 2.7% year/year to $650.3 mln vs the $644.7 mln consensus. Gross margin of $326.2 mln for the March 2007 quarter met expectations at 50.2 percent compared to gross margin of $322.9 mln, or 51.0 percent, for the December 2006 quarter.

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