Börsipäev 20. aprill
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BofA upgrades Netflix (NFLX 21.51) to Neutral from Sell and maintains their $20 tgt, following Q107 results and based on valuation as they believe profitability concerns are now factored into shares.
SunTrust initiates Panera Bread (PNRA 55.83) with a Buy and sets a $65 tgt, based on a compelling concept with strong unit economics that fuels above-industry average unit growth, a disciplined management team focused on enhancing the brand's relevance and appeal, and a strong cash flow generating, franchise business model
Stifel downgrades Robert Half Intl (RHI 37.32) to Sell from Hold, following Q107 EPS results that were below firm and consensus estimates
Bear Stearns downgrades Oil Refining stocks to Underweight from Market Weight, the firm downgrades Sunoco (SUN) to Peer Perform from Outperform, Marathon Oil (MRO 100.52) to Underperform from Outperform, and downgrades Valero (VLO) to Underperform from Outperform
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Dow on kogu veebruari lõpust tehtud languse tagasi võtnud. Tänaseks on aga indeks plussis kaubelnud juba 6 päeva järjest, misei ole jätkusuutlik. Futuurid viitavad positiivsele päeva alguseleca +0.5%.
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Caterpillar(CAT) on täna tugevate tulemustega väljas ning ka aktsia 5% plussis. Oodati kasumit $1.08 aktsia kohta, kuid ettevõte teatas $1.23-lisest EPSi väärtusest. Müügitulud jõudsid $9.32 miljardini ning ületasid ootust 4.6%-ga. Tulemustest olulisem on just ettevõtte tulevikku vaatav nägemus – 2007. aasta oodatavat kasumiprognoosi vahemikku tõsteti $5.30-$5.80 peale (varasem oli $5.20 kuni $5.70) ning senine konsensusootus 2007. aasta osas on $5.46. Tugevatele tulemustele aitas kaasa kiire nõudluse kasv just väljaspool Põhja-Ameerika regiooni.
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Wyethi(WYE) poolt turule toodav menstruatsioonitsükleid ärakaotav anti-beebi pill on saanud palju erineva sisuga kommentaare. WYE ise loodab ravimi turuletoomiseks FDA loa saada juba maikuus.NY Times reports for many women, a birth control pill that eliminates monthly menstruation might seem a welcome milestone. But others view their periods as fundamental symbols of fertility and health, researchers have found. Rather than loathing their periods, women evidently carry on complex love-hate relationships with them. This ambivalence is one reason that a decision expected next month by the FDA has engendered controversy. The agency is expected to approve the first contraceptive pill that is designed to eliminate periods as long as a woman takes it. Doctors say they know of no extra risk to the new regimen, but some women are uneasy about the idea. That viewpoint is apparently one reason some already available birth control pills that can enable women to have only four periods a year have not captured a larger share of the oral contraceptive mkt. But if the new pill, called Lybrel, is approved, Mr. Gal predicts an onslaught of advertising meant to persuade women to do just that. The drug's maker, Wyeth, said yesterday that it was expecting FDA approval in May, but has declined to discuss its marketing plans.
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Pfizer teatas täna korralikud 1. kvartali tulemused lüües turu ootusi kasumi osas 11 sendiga aktsia kohta, kuid teade 2007. aasta prognooside kärpimise kohta on aktsia poole protsendi jagu miinusesse vedanud. 2008. aasta kasumiprognoosid jäeti paika $2.31 kuni $2.45 peale.
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Watch for This Small-Cap Scenario
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
4/20/2007 8:36 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Rev Shark
"Beauty, like ice, our footing does betray; Who can tread sure on the smooth, slippery way: Pleased with the surface, we glide swiftly on, And see the dangers that we cannot shun."
-- John Dryden
Although the major indices have acted quite well the last couple days and blithely shrug off the negatives, there has been some troubling action under the surface. The 5% swoon in China barely made a ripple in the US markets yesterday, and European stocks are bouncing back very strongly this morning.
There clearly is strong underlying buying interest, at least in big-caps, but the poor breadth and relative weakness in smaller stocks is a bit troubling. We had similar action last fall with the big stocks like MSFT and WMT driving the indices. The small-caps eventually played catch-up but for quite a while many market players were complaining about the less-than-stellar action in the little guys as well as in momentum stocks.
The question we have now is whether we are seeing a replay of last fall's action. We have strength in a few names like INTC and KO, which are making the DJIA and SP500 look good, while the overall market has nearly 2 stocks declining for each 1 that advanced. Are the small-caps going to play catch-up again or does their weakness signify something different this time?
The conventional wisdom is that a narrow market is not a healthy market. As concentrated buying drives up a small group of names, they eventually become expensive relative to the rest of the market so logically the buying should spread to other areas. If that doesn't occur, then arguably the narrow buying was just some focused speculative excess that usually has a limited life span.
Jim Cramer has recently made the argument that the market is undergoing a transition in which multiples will expand, which is what is driving big-caps. If that is really happening, then the increase in PE ratios should be across the board as the relative value of stocks to each other really isn't changing. Perhaps market players have so much liquidity that they are willing to pay higher prices for the slower moving but more reliable big-caps, but shouldn't some of that liquidity also lift good small-caps and momentum names?
We will have to watch breadth and the relative strength in small-caps. If that divergence continues it will create some good trading as either the small-caps play catch up or the big caps correct.
We have a strong start shaping up this morning following a good report from Google and a sharp rebound overseas. The news flow is quite positive and keeping the mood upbeat. Gold has bounced back from a hard hit yesterday and oil is holding steady.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
Gapping up on strong earnings/guidance: SYNL +11.6%, INFA +5.0%, CAT +4.9%, ISRG +3.9%, PKTR +2.5%... M&A: GCO +12.2% (Foot Locker proposes acquisition of GCO for $46/share in cash)... Rebound in Asian stock markets lift China stocks, particularly solar: JADE +6.6%, TSL +5.5%, SOLF +4.0%, JASO +3.6%... Small-cap cancer/biotech stocks continue their news-driven rally: EPCT +81.6% (announces Myriad Genetics presented studies characterizing vascular disruption capabilities of Azixa), AVNR +9.7% (momentum), MGRM +7.7% (tgt raised to $3 at ThinkEquity), AMRN +6.4% (momentum), CBLI +6.2% (Protectan CBLB612 demonstrates efficacy in stimulating proliferation and mobilization of bone marrow stem cells in primate model), POZN +5.9% (initiated with a Buy and $28 tgt at Citi), NSTK +5.5% (Cramer positive on stock), ENZN +5.1% & SKYE +3.5% (ENZN granted full approval for DepoCyt for treatment of Lymphomatous Meningitis; ENZN licensed North American rights from SKYE)... Other news: HRB +8.8% (announces agreement to sell Option One Mortgage), RMKR +5.1% (prices 4.16 mln share offering at $8.50/share), HSOA +4.7% (profiled in BusinessWeek), NAPS +4.6% (Circuit City teams with NAPS to launch new digital music service).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down on weak earnings/guidance: MNT -18.3% (also downgraded to Underperform at Piper), RNOW -16.9% (also multiple downgrades), RHI -10.0% (also downgraded to Sell at Stifel), STMP -9.5% (also downgraded to Neutral at First Albany), ENER -8.2% (guides Q3 revs below consensus, announces organizational restructuring plan), SIRF -6.7%, COF -5.5% (also multiple downgrades), CREE -1.6%... Other news: EVVV -5.5% (prices 8.75 mln share offering at $19/share), HDNG -3.4% (prices 2.2 mln share secondary at $23.50), AVCI -2.1% (continuing weakness after Wednesday's report & restructuring announcement), HTLD -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel), DPTR -1.9% (prices 6.2 mln share offering at $20.50/share), TZOO -1.8% (downgraded to Buy at First Albany). -
Wedbush on kommenteerimas Netflixi juhtkonna sõnavõtte BBI Total Accessi programmi hindade tõstmise vajalikkuse osas.
BBI Blockbuster: Raising Total Access prices a question of if, not when - Wedbush (6.29 +0.02)
Wedbush notes that Netflix (NFLX) mgmt stated yesterday during its earnings conf call that it is highly likely that BBI will be forced to increase pricing on its Total Access online rental plan. They say, according to NFLX, BBI's losses from Total Access are "unsustainable" and that BBI loses money on each new subscriber. They disagree with both conclusions. In the firm's view, BBI's motive for entering the online arena was defensive. They note the co is interested in neutralizing NFLX's impact on its business, and has largely succeeded. They don't expect a price increase for Total Access unless it is accompanied by a price cut for the basic online service. -
Caterpillar räägib konverentsikõnel juhtkonna nägemusest USA majandusest, intressimäärapoliitikast jne. 2007. aasta SKP prognoosi alandati 2% peale.
Co lowers their Y07 GDP forecast to 2.0% from 2.5%; expects fed rate cuts at the end of 2007 but notes this will probably be too late to help the economy in 2007. Co sees continued strength outside North America. Co expects y/y comparables to be tougher in Q2 then in 2H07 and says Q1 performance in housing was in line with expectations. Co says pricing in North America is higher than the rest of the World, and they their view of India is improving.
