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Börsipäev 4. mai

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  • Täna NY Postis huvitav lugu sellest, kuidas MSFT tahab taaskord Yahood (YHOO) kosida! Kui vaadata võimalikku $50-miljardilist hinda, siis tõlgenduks see ca 23.5x 2007. aasta EV/EBITDA kordajas ja 19.5x 2008. aasta EV/EBITDA kordajas. Nagu ikka, tehakse taoliste ülevõttude puhul arvutusi, kus rakendatakse sarnaseid kordajaid teistele sektori ettevõtetele. Kuna Yahoo omab osalust Pro soovituses Gmarket (GMKT), siis tegin kiired arvutused, mis teevad situatsiooni päris huvitavaks. Esmalt tuleb muidugi märkida, et GMKT on tunduvalt väiksem ettevõte kui Yahoo, kuid teisalt ei ole selles sektoris enam ettevõtteid palju järele jäänud, mida üle võtta oleks (sellest ka Microsofti nii agressiivne pealekäimine). Kui rakendada sarnast 2008. aasta EV/EBITDA kordajat Gmarketile, saaksime hinnaks umbes $24. Märgin ära, et Gmarketi EBITDA kasv on üpriski agressivne võrreldes Yahooga. Kui vaadata situatsiooni PE baasil, siis ülevõtu korral makstaks Yahoo eest üle 50x 2008. aasta prognoositava P/E. Rakendades sarnast kordajat Gmarketile, saaksime aktsiahinnaks rohkem kui $45. Viimasele tasemele jõudmist ma küll ei usu, kuid mingi pildi võib see arutlus anda. Lisaks märgiks ära, et aktsia float on suhteliselt tagasihoidlik ning spekulatsioonidele võib siit alust leida.

    The NY Post reports Microsoft (MSFT) has intensified its pursuit of a deal with Yahoo (YHOO), asking the co to re-enter formal negotiations. While Microsoft and Yahoo! have held informal deal talks over the years, sources say the latest approach signals an urgency on Microsoft's part that has up until now been lacking. The new approach follows an offer Microsoft made to acquire Yahoo! a few months ago, sources said. But Yahoo! spurned any advances. Wall Street sources put a roughly $50 bln price tag on Yahoo. "They're getting tired of being left at the altar," said one banking source who has recently had talks with Microsoft. "They now seem more willing to extend themselves via a transaction to get into the game." Part of the reason for that is because Google keeps trumping Microsoft on the deal front, beating out the co on not just DoubleClick, but also for a renewed search advertising pact with AOL in 2005 that Microsoft lusted after. Moreover, with Google developing Internet-based software that directly competes with Microsoft Office, sources said Microsoft has no choice but to go on the offensive. Sources said Microsoft is working with Goldman Sachs.

    Prudential upgrades Schering-Plough (SGP 32.11) to Overweight from Neutral and raises their tgt to $37 from $32, based on their acquisition of Organon Biosciences, a potentially large pipeline drug that is now entering Phase III development and a strong Q107

    SunTrust upgrades Career Education (CECO 29.29), following Q107 EPS that exceeded firm and consensus estimates with revenue falling below and based on stability in student starts and the continued gains in persistence

    BofA initiates The Bon-Ton Stores (BONT 48.03) with a Buy and sets a $64 tgt, based on a compelling merger/turnaround story with meaningful potential for upside through a number of drivers that include updated strategies for merchandising and store ops being implemented by the acquired teams

  • Gapping Up: RTRSY +25.1%, YHOO +22.8%, ONT +21.3%, CROX +16.2%, NFI +12.9%, GNA +11.1%, ZOLT +10.9%, WON +7.7%, FSLR +7.2%, MAMA +6.6%, ALY +6.5%, PTR +6.0%, IDMI +5.1%, INAP +5.0%, IDEV +4.9%, LEND +4.4%, DNDN +4.4%, BOBJ +3.7%, IMAX +3.3%, ARMHY +3.3%... Gapping Down: TCHC -42.6%, ISTA -18.9%, ANR -13.5%, JSDA -12.3%, CRAY -12.2%, BEAS -7.1%, TFSM -7.0%, QLGC -6.3%, SHLD -5.5%, KBR -4.6%, NXG -4.3%, CHK -2.5%, IMOS -2.2%, PDLI -2.0%
  • Nonfarm Payrolls 88K vs 100K consensus

    Unemployment Rate 4.5% vs 4.5% consensus

    Average Workweek 33.8 vs 33.8 consensus

    Hourly Earnings +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus
  • Why This Is Not an Easy Market for Traders

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor

    5/4/2007 7:54 AM EDT
    Click here for more stories by Rev Shark

    "Just as the wave cannot exist for itself, but is ever a part of the heaving surface of the ocean, so must I never live my life for itself, but always in the experience which is going on around me."

    -- Albert Schweitzer

    In this environment, it is very easy to find ourselves focused on what we hope might happen rather than what is actually occurring. In a market that is seeing record-breaking runs and acting downright irrational in its refusal to rest, we have a tendency to dismiss reality and focus on what we feel would be more comfortable. We don't want to give ourselves over to the action we don't really understand or trust and ultimately that leads to tremendous frustration.

    One of the hallmarks of great investors is the ability to ride a wave of seemingly irrational action. Rather than fight it and try to come up with reasons that it is doomed to fail, great investors go with the flow and profit from having the wind at their backs.

    The reason this can work so well is that trends can last much longer than we believe they will. People intent on calling market turns are inevitably too early. It is in those stages when we first start thinking the market needs a rest -- but keeps going and going and going -- that the trend-riding investor makes exceptional gains.

    The secret to success is to ride that momentum as long as possible but to be quick to lock in profits at the first sign of trouble. Unfortunately that is a lot harder than it sounds. When we are distrustful of the market and believe it is acting irrationally it is very easy to perceive every minor hiccup as the beginning of the end. We know it won't last, so we overreact to relatively minor issues.

    Despite the hoopla and glee over this run, this is not an easy market for most active investors. Entry points are terribly difficult to find as everything looks extended and exits always produce second-guessing as stocks keep going. The key is to stay patient, respect the current trend, and don't overanticipate its end.

    We have a strong start on the way as talk about Microsoft making a run at Yahoo! hits the wires and several overseas acquisitions heat up. The jobs report this morning should also generate some action. Overseas markets are trading strongly with oil and gold fairly steady. (I am going to be tied up in a meeting all morning but will check back in later.)



  • Täna teatas Hovnavian (HOV) 32-protsendilisest cancellation ratest, mis ilmselt ei ole küll üllatus, kuid näitab, et progbleemid kinnisvarasektoris jätkuvad. Tavaliselt löövad need majandustatistikasse kerge viiteajaga.

    Lisaks oli tööjõuraport allapoole ootuseid ning esimest korda 11 kuu jooksul langetati möödunud kuu statistikat tagantjärele. Samuti langes töökohtade arv finantsteenuste sektoris, mida võib tõlgendada kinnisvaraturu ja laenuäri tagajärgedena.

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