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Börsipäev 3. oktoober

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  • Bloombergis päris huvitav video. Räägitakse Hiina hinnatasemtest ning mõnigatest odavamatest piirkondadest Aasias. Samuti on DWS Thematic fFnd lisanud oma positsiooni mõningaid suuremaid Euroopa pankasid tänu odavale hinnatasemele (näiteks UBS) ning nende arvates toob järgnevad 3-4 nädalat toovad sub-prime jamasse rohkem selgust (ehk siis selguvad võitjad ja kaotajad)... 


  • FRANKFURT, Oct 3 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank expects net profit to rise to more than $2 billion in the third quarter despite more than $3 billion in write-downs in the wake of global credit market turmoil, it said on Wednesday. Germany's biggest bank said it expected quarterly net profit of above 1.4 billion euros ($2 billion), although it would take charges of 700 million euros on its leveraged loan commitments and 1.5 billion euros on items such as structured credit products and mortgage-backed securities.
    It had net profit of 1.25 billion euros in the third quarter of 2006.

    Keegi võiks miski writedownide edetabeli teha - DB siis platseerub UBS järele, kuid Citigroupi ette ...
  • Apartment firms look unfairly beaten-down - WSJ

    Kui Citigroup pani majaehitajad lendama, siis kas nüüd on järg residential REITs käes?
  • Henno, ma ei usu, et REITid niimoodi lendavad. Esiteks koosneb sektor väga erinevatest opereerijatest ning korterid on vaid üks osa. Teiseks ei ole nad nii ülemüüdud (põhjast ju päris korralikult põrganud) ning lühikeseks müüdud aktsiate protsent tunduvalt väiksem.
  • Morgan Stanley initiates Advanced Micro (AMD 13.20) with an Underweight and an $11 tgt...

    Morgan Stanley initiates Intel (INTC 26.38) with an Underweight and a $22 tgt
  • Oliver. 2004. aasta detsembris kirjutasid väikese ülevaate OLED tehnoloogiast. Link. Arvestades viimaseid uudiseid, ei midagi väga uut, kuid kui aeg küps, siis aetakse asi kuumaks.

    1) SNE said Monday it will begin selling the world's first ultra-thin flat-screen television based on organic light-emitting diode technology in December, as the race to develop next-generation televisions heats up

    2) Brean Murray say due to such advantages as higher brightness, lower required power, flexibility, and wider viewing angles, firm believes Organic Light Emitting Diodes will become an important display technology. While current OLED sales are modest, market forecasts have sales growing to several billion dollars over the next three to four years. Firm notes last month, Sumitomo Chemical of Japan completed the purchase of OLED manufacturer Cambridge Display for $12 per share. Yesterday, Sony announced it was introducing the world's first flat-panel television set based on OLED technology. Firm believes these events indicate a bright future for OLEDs and continue to recommend PANL as a Buy.
  • jup, asjad on päris kõvasti arenenud vahepeal. PANL ainuke play praktiliselt selles sektoris
  • eMagin on esimene kes tõenäoliselt selles sektoris kasumisse jõuab
    väike aga tubli olnud:
    8Q järjest on käivet kasvatatud qoq
    finantsraskused on selja taha jäänud, selle eest lõivu peab maksma dilutimise näol - aktsiate arv kasvab kuni 30m, (aga muud valikut ei olnud) hiljuti saadud overdraft lisab paindlikust
    minu mudeli järgi võiks hiljemalt 2008 lõpuks tulla esimesed mustad Q numbrid,
    kuid see võib ka varem tulla - tehase overheadi ekspluateerimine on käibe kasvades oluliselt efektiivsem kui oodata oskasin
    oma väikse marketc(r)api tõttu pole kuigi inn ticker.
    hoian - ikka veel
  • speedy, kas sa nende toodet oled proovinud ka? peaks vist olema võimalik neid tellida?
  • The September employment data on Friday will be a big release. If payrolls rise 100,000, the recession talk that developed with the 4,000 August decline will fade. The ADP payroll report this morning brings good news in that regard. It showed a 58,000 increase in private employment for September. Government payrolls are not included, and they dropped 28,000 in the official August payroll data. A reversal of that in September could easily produce a total 100,000 nonfarm payroll gain.

  • A Chill in the Air?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/3/2007 7:32 AM EDT

    Obstinacy is ever most positive when it is most in the wrong.
    -- Suzanne Curchod Necker

    Stocks have remained stubbornly strong since mid-August when the Fed first took steps to ease the debt crisis by cutting the discount rate. That started a bounce off the lows, as it was then widely anticipated that the Fed would cut the federal funds rate at its meeting on Sept. 18.

    The Fed ended cutting by a greater-than-expected amount, but there was never any "sell the news" reaction, despite the fact that the move was so highly anticipated. Those folks who were looking for things to finally slow down started thinking that we'd finally see some selling after the third quarter ended and window-dressing pressure subsided. So far, that hasn't happened either.

    This continued ascent with little pause has left many investors poorly positioned and struggling to produce performance. While they may feel that there are few good reasons for the market to continue to run so strongly, they are even more concerned about being left behind should they be wrong. The rationality of the market seems questionable, but trying to fight it when it has such strong momentum is not the way to make money.

    One interesting development lately has been the strong action in small-caps and crazy "bubble-like" trading in many Chinese stocks. Investors are obviously feeling very confident and are willing to trade in Ponzi-scheme fashion in a select number of stocks. That action ultimately ends badly but it can persist longer than you think it might.

    The most important thing for investors to keep in mind right now is that danger is growing as investors become increasingly optimistic, fear subsides and technical conditions become extended. In addition, we have earnings season rapidly approaching, which can serve as a convenient catalyst for profit-taking should expectations be too high as the numbers roll out.

    Underestimating the strength of this market has been a bad move for well over a year now. At some point that will change, but there is still nothing in the price action to indicate that a highly defensive posture should be cultivated. Yes, the negative macro arguments are easy to make and are downright compelling in many cases, but they are being ignored. Being right in theory is cold comfort if you lose money in the process.

    The big question on my mind this morning is whether things will cool off a bit now as the positive seasonality at the beginning of new quarter wanes. We have not seen any major consolidation since the August low, and with earnings coming up soon, there will be a convenient excuse to do so. For now, the bulls continue to be in control, and the long side is the place to be.

    We have a slightly soft open this morning. Overseas markets were mixed and there isn't much news on the wires at the moment. Gold and oil are trading up slightly.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    China stocks continue to see volatility, with mixed trading in individual names this morning after the Hang Seng index was down 2.6%; the following are set to gap higher: EFUT +34.0% (announces Beijing tourism group selects it as centralized purchasing and visual process mgmt system provider), GRRF +25.3%, CDS +21.2%, HIHO +17.7%, CSUN +3.9%... Other news: MBRX 21.1% (announces European Commission grants Orphan Medicinal Product Designation to MB07133), WON +10.7% (co and CBS Radio announce execution of definitive agreement), SSTR +5.6% (still checking for any news), STEM +4.6% (Reuters reports that GSK, AZN and Roche back stem cells for drug tests), PMCS +3.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), DB +2.6% (reports it will take $3.3 bln charge on leveraged loans, credit products).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    On weak earnings/guidance: MWY -12.6%, MU -5.3% PFCB -4.2%... China stocks continue to see volatility, with mixed trading in individual names this morning after the Hang Seng index was down 2.6%: CTDC -8%, CHNR -5.5%, RCH -5.7%, CEA -5.2%, JRJC -4.6%, PTR -4.3%, HNP -4%, ACTS -3.8%, ZNH -3.8%... Other news: MPEL -7.5%, LVS -5.4%, WYNN -5.2% (hearing weakness attributed to cautious comments from a tier-1 firm), CRNT -6.7% (downgraded to Underperform at Collins Stewart), CREE -5.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Canaccord Adams), EXM -3.9% (announces plan to offer $100 mln in Convertible Senior notes).
  • Oliver,
    pole veel nii rikas, et sellise asja peale niiasama raha kulutada, ennem oleks PS-le rooli vaja ;-)

    3D Visor iseenesest tundub rohkem selline kõrval teema olevat, nad kunagi sellest väga ei räägi
    kuigi selle toote võimalik edu annaks olulise bonuse tuludesse, 100% omavalmistatud ning eeldatavasti parema marginaaliga
    põhirõhk on siiski oled komponentide tootmisel klientide seadmetele
  • Gmarketi ralli on isegi minusugusele vanale GMKT-pullile üllatuseks : )
  • Hetkel on Gmarket saavutanud praktiliselt meie prognoositud hinnasihi ning ODAVAKS ma aktsiat enam ei pea (samas mitte ka ülikalliks). Osta nendelt tasemetelt aktsiat hetkel ei tahaks... Samas pean tõdema, et Yahoo poolt ülevõtu võimalus kehtib ikka.
  • ükskõik mis "remotely-Asia" kihutab kõvasti üles, sealt ka ilmselt GMKT-küte ... aga küll see bidu läbi saab ...
  • Earlier, Qatar Investment Authority put pressure on Financial Supervisory Authority to rule on its suitability to be an owner of OMX at the same time as it rules on Bourse Dubai/Nasdaq (so that it will not be disadvantaged). It filed a document with the Financial Supervisory Authority on Tuesday requesting approval to take a larger stake in the OMX than it currently has (just below 10%). Bourse Dubai/Nasdaq is known to own 47.6% of the exchange. It has now been revealed that Citigroup made a block trade in OMX for 950,000 shares (0.8% of OMX) at 286 SEK per share. It is thought that the bank would most likely be operating for Qatar.
  • Ma olen ka seda meelt, et bidu lõppeb kõva pohmakaga. Aga enne võidakse veel peale võtta. :)
  • pidu lõpeb pisaratega, kuid enne seda saab veel kopsakaid kasumeid võtta - nii arvas miski Morgan Stanley mees täna läbi FT

    võib vist tõlgendada nii, et kasumid jäävad Morgan Stanley ja teiste investeerimispankade osaks ja pisarad jaeinvestorile
  • Jah, kuigi pidu ja bidu ei maksa segamini ajada... :))),
    on lõpptulemus sarnane, ehk ainult erinevates mõõtmetes.
  • pidu ja BIDU* .... lõpp saabub enamvähem samal ajal

    *Baidu.com, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BIDU)
  • EE Times kirjutab negatiivselt pooljuhtide sektori tarnijatest:

    EE Times reports there is bad news for suppliers of semiconductor equipment: 2008 appears to be a down year for the industry. And so are we headed for a downturn? Amid a slowdown in the IC industry, Gartner slightly raised its capital equipment spending forecast for 2007, but lowered it for 2008. Overall capital spending is projected to hit $57.1 bln in 2007, up a mere 1.5% percent over 2006, according to Gartner. Capital spending is projected to go into negative territory and fall by 4.4% to $54.6 bln in 2008. Worldwide semiconductor capital equipment spending is forecast to total $43.7 bln in 2007, a 4.1% increase from 2006. The market is expected to reach $43.8 bln in 2008, up a mere 0.3%. There is some positive news. "However, even with the bad news, 2007 has an upside. Firming average selling prices in the microprocessing unit and memory segments have caused the semiconductor forecast to rise to 3.9%... Gartner still expects DRAM spending cuts to be limited as the transition to 300-mm is required since 200-mm fabs are not capable of cost-effectively manufacturing at or below 65-nm. Trends in DRAM pricing will play a key role in capex cuts in 2008."
  • Home Construction (XHB), Semi (SMH), Retail (RTH), Materials (XLB) näitavad päris tugevat nõrkust
  • Selline Applet puudutav uudis. Konkurendid ei maga:

    WSJ reports seven technology vendors are laying plans to collaborate on a standard layer of software that will make it easier to develop cellphones and other mobile devices with Apple (AAPL) iPhone-like sophistication. The effort, which will exploit the Linux operating system and other open-source software, is being announced Wednesday at a conference in San Jose, Calif., that is hosted by ARM Holdings (ARMHY). Other participants include chip makers Texas Instruments (TXN), Samsung Electronics and Marvell Technology Group (MRVL). The other members of the new software-development effort are MontaVista Software, Movial and Mozilla. All are closely held.
  • Väike kokkuvõte Navteqi ülevõtmisest Nokia poolt ning sellest, et tõenäoliselt rivaliteetset pakkumist ei tule. Börsipäeva foorumis pidasin ülevõtupäeval ka ise seda tõenäoliseks pärast seda, kui kahepoolne kokkulepe olemas:

    NVT Nokia/Navteq deal unlikely to see rival bidder, sources say - FT Mergermarket (75.70 -0.40)

    FT Mergermarket reports Nokia's of the co is unlikely to see a rival bid despite the competitive implications of the deal and little share price premium paid, sources said. Two sources familiar with the deal said that while no auction took place, Navteq "more than adequately shopped around a deal," and that they were convinced that Nokia's $78 per share cash purchase price was "healthier than anyone else would commit to pay." A source familiar with GRMN said that the co is concerned about its source of maps going into a competitor's hands with the other major source of world-wide digital maps planning to do the same, but that it would likely not be able to outbid Nokia in the end, though it is still considering whether to try. The source familiar with Garmin said that in the short-term, Garmin should not see much effect from the deal, noting that it has purchase agreements with Navteq and that its business is part of the value that Nokia is paying for. The source also noted that from an anti-trust standpoint, he did not see it as likely that Garmin would be cut-off from access to Navteq product, noting that is an issue that anti-trust regulators could likely address. However, in the longer-term, the source expressed concern over Garmin's ability to have its future needs or desires met by Navteq such as with new or changed product features for GPS systems that it sells in an ever-evolving mkt.
  • Mis solar sektoris toimub? LDK ja TSL. Tundub totaalne paanika!
  • LDK Solar Co.Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) sees afternoon pressure. Piper Jaffray made comments on the stock this afternoon. The firm said, "We have confirmed that the LDK financial controller recently left the company. We are also aware of the former controller's allegations of poor financial controls and a 250MT inventory discrepancy; allegations were made to both the SEC and the external auditor KPMG. We have spoken to the LDK CFO about these claims and have found no reason/proof to dispute management's claim of 1000MT of polysilicon in inventory/WIP. News of the departure may pressure the stock near term." The firm said the sell off may reveal a better entry point. Maintains its Outperform rating and $52 price target.
  • Mis NTRIga toimub? Manipuleeritakse hinnaga? 50% floadist lühikeseks müüdud, aga fundamentaalselt võttes peaks shortidele tulema viimane kohtupäev õige kiiresti. Jätkuvalt kavatsen olukorra selginedes positsiooni võtta

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