Börsipäev 19. detsember - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 19. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna peale turgude sulgemist oma majandusaasta teise kvartali tulemusi avaldavalt Nike’lt (NKE) oodatakse tulu $4.21 miljardit ning aktsiapõhiseks kasumiks $0.66. Viimasel ajal on mitmed analüüsimajad soovitusi tõstnud, nt. Citi ja Caris on aktsiale andnud “osta” soovituse.

    Kvartali jooksul on läbi viidud ka mitmeid muudatusi, $60 miljoni eest müüdi oma Starteri bränd ning teatati plaanist enne jalgpalli maailmameistrivõistlusi osta $582 miljoni eest Umbro.

    Nike teenib üle poole oma tuludest rahvusvahelistelt turgudelt, mis vähendab ebamäärasust USA tarbija suhtes. Aasias suudetakse kasvatada turuosa ning välisriikide tulude suurenemist on oodata ka tulevikus. Mitmed regioonid, sh Aasia ja Ida-Euroopa, kasvavad oluliselt kiiremini kui USA ning kahtlemata aitab sellele kaasa nõrk dollar. Ometi ei ole midagi lahti ka kodus, kus on suudetud kasvatada jalatsite turuosa. Kui eelmise kvartaliga võrreldes on spordijalatsite müük USAs 2% võrra vähenenud, siis Nike’i sama perioodi müügimahud on 10% tõusnud.

    Nike on tarbijasektoris üks tugevamaid tegijaid, kuigi ka siin tasub tähelepanu pöörata marginaalidele. Nende langust ei kardeta mitte niivõrd tarbija nõrkuse, vaid kõrgemate marginaalidega pesapallijalatsite väiksemast müügimahust, mis omakorda tuleneb spordiala ümber valitsevast dopinguskandaalist.


    Lisaks teatab enne turgude avanemist oma neljanda kvartali tulemused veel Morgan Stanley (MS). Konsensus ootab, et ettevõte teenib oma lähiajaloo esimese kahjumi. Jällegi tasub kuulata kommentaare Level 3 varade ning GSi viidatud novembri nõrkuse kohta.

  • Glitniri vahendatud Venemaa telekomisektori novembrikuu statistikast saab teada, et SIM-kaartide penetratsioon on riigis tõusnud juba 116.7%-le. Kui MTS on klientide kasvatamisel olnud edukam Venemaal ja Ukrainas, siis Vimpelcomil on oluliselt paremini läinud Kasahstanis ja Usbekistanis. Tabelis on Venemaa kolme suurima operaatori kasvudünaamika ära toodud:

    Nov telco stat

  • Morgan Stanley tuli päris raskesti loetavate tulemustega välja

    Reports Q4 (Nov) loss of $3.61 per share, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of ($0.39). An additional $5.7 bln writedown of U.S. subprime, and other mortgage related exposures in November, and the $3.7 bln writedown as of October 31 (previously announced on Nov 7), result in a total Q4 writedown of approximately $9.4 bln. In total, these writedowns reduced Y07 EPS from continuing operations and the return on average common equity from continuing operations by approx $5.80 and 19%. Co's valuation of this position as of November 30 takes into consideration a variety of inputs including observable trades, the continued deterioration in market conditions, the decline in the ABX Indices, other market developments, including mortgage remittances and updated cumulative loss data. Co's remaining direct net U.S. subprime exposure is $1.8 bln at November 30, down from $10.4 bln at August 31. The value of these positions remains subject to mark-to-market volatility.
  • uus trend jätkub ... peale UBS ja Citigroup saab ka nüüd ka Morgan Stanley uue suure osaniku Aasiast
  • MSi puhul peaksid siis probleemid põhimõtteliselt ühel pool olema. Võrreldes kolme kuu taguse portfelliga on subprime'st järgi ainult "kopikad" ning rohkem negatiivseid üllatusi tulla ei tohiks. Ettevõttel midagi enam varjata ei ole ja CC-l antavad kommentaarid Level 3 varade kohta on sisuliselt oma aktuaalsuse kaotanud. Varade nii suures mahus maha kirjutamine oli muidugi üllatav..., aga Hiina investor saved the day.
  • Kõrged kütusehinnad on nõudnud järgmise ohvri. Union Pacific(UNP) langetas oma 4. kvartali kasumiprognoosi vahemikku $1.70-$1.80 aktsia kohta. Konsensus oli seni $1.98. Aktsia eelturul üle 5% miinuses.
  • Juba mõnda aega tagasi hakati kasutama fraasi, et USA tarbija kasutab Hiinast saadud krediitkaarti. Näikse, et mida aega edasi, seda rohkem see tõele vastama hakkab.
  • Saksamaa DAX +0.10%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.43%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.17%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.01%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.42%

    Poola WIG -0.90%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.17%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.11%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.19%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.33%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.99%

    Tai Set -1.10%

    India Sensex +0.06%

  • Bad Mood + Year-End = Holiday Rally?

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/19/2007 8:22 AM EST

    Pessimism is, in brief, playing the sure game. You cannot lose at it; you may gain. It is the only view of life in which you can never be disappointed. Having reckoned what to do in the worst possible circumstances, when better arise, as they may, life becomes child's play.
    -- Thomas Hardy

    The market has been mired in pessimism lately. Bad loans, illiquidity and a slowing economy have provided substantial headwinds, but what has made matters much worse this past week is that inflation worries are building. The media is now starting to use the word "stagflation," which is sure to send shivers down the spines of some.

    The question I am pondering this morning is whether the high level of pessimism combined with positive end-of-the-year seasonality has set the stage for at least a brief rally. It would be tough to argue that that market participants are overly optimistic if they are listening to the consistently negative news flow in both the popular and business press. However, I'm a bit surprised to see a jump in bullish sentiment from 53.3% to 56.5% in this morning's Investor's Intelligence poll. That certainly seems at odds with the recent market action, which has had no upside traction at all.

    The question remains -- are the negatives so well known and priced in sufficiently for now that we can rally a bit? The problem the market has faced with the liquidity and bad-debt problems is that we just don't know the extent of it. If the big banks could quantify their exposure and take a write-off, we'd be in good shape to see a tradable low. Unfortunately, we are still trying to figure out whether all the recent central bank moves are doing anything to really ease the problems.

    The great likelihood is that we will continue to see fallout from the current problems well into next year, but that doesn't mean the market can't rally in the short term. With so few people feeling that the liquidity issue has been fixed, it will only take a smidgen of good news to uptick the market. If gains can be held for a day or so, that will embolden some dip-buyers and bring in bottom-fishers.

    I certainly believe this market has more downside to come -- especially given the sorry state of the charts of the major indices -- but we are due for a brief respite from the pressure. The current pessimism, lack of confidence in the Fed and end-of-the-year pressures are all supportive of some sort of bounce. No one trusts this market at this point, and that is what we need to get things moving to the upside.

    My approach to the market is to not be overly anticipatory. I want to see a move develop a bit before I put my money on the line. That means I'm not loading up yet even though I think we have some upside coming. It means that I prepare myself mentally and make plans for what actions I will take if things develop as I expect. If I'm right, I won't catch the bottom, but I should be able to catch the meat of a move. If I'm wrong, my exposure is limited and the damage contained.

    Earnings from Morgan Stanley (MS ) have helped push the market back up from some weakness in premarket trading. A comment by the head of the European Central Bank about a "more protracted" period of inflation caused some problems in overseas markets, but overall things are around flat.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DGIT +14.7%, ATU +4.1%, AMTD +3.1%, TTWO +2.1% (also upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), ACE +1.7%, NDSN +1.3%, APSG +1.3%... Other news: CEM +19.4% (to review strategic alternatives), EPEX +16.6% (to review strategic alternatives, including the potential sale or merger of the co), CDS +9.3% (plans to acquire two Magnesium companies), CIM +4.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ETFC +3.3% (Former CEO of E*Trade, trades out of some of his holdings - Barron's Online), ADPI +3.4% (signs forbearance agreements and provides mediation update), CVTX +3.4% (FDA approves new mechanism of action labeling for Ranexa), GCO +2.5% (UBS may be forced to finance a $1.5 bln retail acquisition of GCO by Finish Line - WSJ), ABMD +2.0% (receives FDA approval for the combination iPulse circulatory support system), LMC +1.2% (announces it will repurchase up to 19,620,139 common shares), ALL +1.1% (affirms outlook, provides ests for California wildfires and other catastrophe losses)... Analyst upgrades: MPWR +2.7% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), SID +2.5% (hearing upgraded to Neutral at tier-1 firm), OSUR +1.9% (initiated with Buy), FLEX +1.7% (assumed with Buy at Deutsche Bank), NILE +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), WFT +1.7% (hearing added to Conviction Buy List at tier-1 firm), DYN +1.6% (initiated with Buy at UBS), SLB +1.4% (hearing upgraded to Buy at tier-1 firm), NMX +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), OXY +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), FSIN +1.2% (initiated with Buy at Piper Jaffray), AGU +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: DRI -11.9%, EXAR -10.2%, PALM -9.8%, HOV -6.5%, RMBS -6.4%, KMX -5.1%, FSII -1.8%, MANT -1.2%... Select gold stocks showing weakness on lower gold prices: AU -4.2%, GFI -2.8%, HMY -2.3%, GOLD -1.9%... Other news: FRPT -25.5% (FRPT, Navistar, BAE split $2.66 bln truck order), SPAR -5.9% (still checking), ADCT -4.8% (proposes convertible subordinated notes offering of $400 mln), UTI -2.8% (announces departure of CFO), RAIL -2.5% (announces decision to close Johnstown facility, will record a pre-tax restructuring and impairment charge during Q4 of 2007 of approx $34.3 mln), MGRC -2.4% (may continue to buy back shares under its previously announced stock repurchase during the co's current "blackout" period), INFN -2.2% (Carphone Warehouse has selected INFN for its national backbone network in the UK), MTSC -2.1% (names Laura Hamilton Chief Executive Officer), STRL -2.0% (prices 1.6 mln share secondary offering at $20), RTEC -1.5% (acquires semiconductor business of Applied Precision; to be accretive to earnings within first year), AEA -1.2% (announces decision to close 66 remaining centers in Pennsylvania), MCBC -1.1% (makes Q4 provisions for residential development loans)... Analyst downgrades: TRB -3.9% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank, also CEO expected to resign), BJS -2.4% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm), BCS -2.4% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm), UBS -1.8% (hearing downgraded to Hold at tier-1 firm), TECUA -1.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Baird), NSM -1.4% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier-1 firm), SANM -1.1% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier-1 firm), BP -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
  • Morgan Stanely on siis subprimest peaaegu puhas, aga leveraged loans exposure on 20B novembri lõpuga vs 30B augusti lõpus ... muidugi mahakirjutatud subprime osas eeldatavalt tekib järgnevates kvartalites mingil määral erakorralisi kasumeid, aga siiski tiksub pomm edasi?

  • Selline teade siis:
    No indication of terrorism in White House complex fire, according to D.C. Fire Spokesman - Reuters
  • Fedi esimesele krediiditurgude rahustamiseks mõeldud $20 miljardi suurusele "rahaoksjonile" laekus soove ca $62 miljardi eest. Suur huvi ajas üles intressimäärad, 4.65% oli analüütikute oodatud ülemise ääre lähedal ja ega kõrgemat määra polnudki mõtet ennustada, sest discount rate on 4.75%.
  • Fed's Lacker says is uncomfortable with inflation picture, which has deteriorated since august
    Lacker says central bank must keep overall inflation down, not just core
    Lacker says if energy prices fail to fall, monetary policy decisions in 2008 will be difficult
    Lacker sees "very weak" U.S. growth for several months, sees 2008 growth of 2-2.25% Q4 to Q4
    Fed's Lacker: Housing to stay drag on growth 'well' into '08
    Lacker says the "most cogent risks" to growth are on the downside, but sees pickup during 2008
    Lacker says may be more market turmoil if information on further mortgage losses exposed
  • ORCL prelim $0.31 vs $0.27 First Call consensus; revs $5.3 bln vs $5.04 bln First Call consensus

    Oracle lööb ootusi ning jätab ettevõtte osas olevad skeptikud keerulisse olukorda. Homme järelturul teatab oma tulemused RIMM ning ka sealt oodatakse tugevaid tulemusi (võiks ilmselt isegi öelda, et mitteametlikult oodatakse konsensuse löömist). Tugi tehnoloogiasektorile.
  • mnjah mul sama küsimus CEE kohta?millest selline järsk hinnalangus võrreldes eilse sulgemis hinnaga?
  • The Central Europe and Russia Fund, Inc. Announces Distribution
  • misiganes se oli, järelturu Korea uudis lükkab pöidlad ülesse
    ISV long

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