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Börsipäev 2. jaanuar

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  • Mõningase hilinemisega lisasime LHV Pro alla BCSi Venemaa turgude 2008. aasta prognoosi inglise keeles.
  • Ja jälle tungib Lähis-Ida peale

    Financial Times reports The Kuwait Investment Authority is following its peers in the Middle East in the hope of finding bargain investments in the US in the wake of the subprime mortgage crisis. The $213 bln sovereign wealth fund is particularly interested in opportunities in financial services.
  • Oskab keegi öelda millal AMD tuleb välja Q4 tulemustega?
  • AMD 24-Jan-08 Earnings Next earnings release: Jan 24 after market, unconfirmed. Reuters Research estimate: -0.35
  • AMD-st rääkides - RealMoney all teeb iga aasta oma niinimetatud pühade portfelli Christopher Edmonds, valides aasta alguses välja 5 aktsiat ning kommenteerib nende liikumist igal kauplemispühal. Olen poole silmaga ikka jälginud. 2008. aasta valikutest kaks on samad, mis sel aastalgi - Altria (MO), mis on ka LHV Pro valik, ning Banc of America (BAC). Kolm uut nime on Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) ning Equity Residentail Properties (EQR).

    AMD on Christopheri poolt pühade portfelli lisatud põhjusel, et aktsia on kauplemas 52-nädala põhjadel ning valmis rallima vähimagi positiivse uudise peale (kas või tehnoloogiasektori kohta üldiselt). 2 aasta tagustest tippudest on AMD kukkunud üle 80%. Spekulatiivne panus, mis ülejäänud nimede kõrval portfellile omajagu vürtsi lisab.
  • 31. detsembril andis oma upgrage'i Amazonile (AMZN) Citigroup. Soovitus tõstetakse 'hoia' pealt 'ostale' ning hinnasiht $95-lt $119-le, väärtustades ettevõtet 50x 2009. aasta oodataval kasumil... Upgrade'i põhjuseks uus lähenemine analüüsiprotsessis, mis muudab Citi arvates Amazoni üheks parimaks valikuks internetisektorist 2008. aastaks.
  • Täna saab heita pilgu FOMCi detsembri intressimäära langetamise tagamaadesse, sest kell 21 avaldatakse Fedi protokoll.
  • AMZN upgrade Citi poolt meenutab mõnevõrra tehnoloogiamulli aegu, kui ühegi kasutusel oleva mudeliga ei olnud võimalik jaburaid valuatsioone põhjendada. Kas nüüd hakkavad sama reha otsa astuma? Tarbimispeo jahtumine jõuab millalgi ka AMZN-ini ja kui analüüsimajad on viimase võimaluseni stokki haipinud, siis tuleb kukkumine seda valusam.

    PS. Novembris oli võimalus teda ka kasumlikult shortida, aga hetkel ootan uut võimalust.
  • Och-Ziff Capital Management Group LLC (OZM) lisatud kaubeldavate aktsiate nimekirja ka investeerimiskontolt!
  • Kas on GMKT kohta mingeid uudiseid, millest selline tugev tõus? Eelturul kaupleb GMKT hetkel üle +8 % kõrgemal.
  • Hetkel jään GMKT sellise tugevuse selgitamisel vastuse võlgu - otseseid uudiseid silma ei torka ning ka tulevase Jaapani netilehe URList vaatab vastu veel tühjus. Aktsia on muidugi ka paar-kolm korda varem ka mitte millegi peale selliseid imelikke ülespoole avanemisi teinud, kuid üldiselt ikkagi 9%line pluss eelturul ilma põhjuseta välja ei uju.... mahud muidugi väga suured (taaskord) ei ole.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.05%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.53%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.68%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.33%

    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)

    Poola WIG +0.40%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.73%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.21%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.35%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.41%

    Tai Set -2.19%

    India Sensex +0.81%

  • Don't Worry About Predictions for 2008

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/2/2008 7:44 AM EST

    With high hope for the future, no prediction is ventured.
    -- Abraham Lincoln

    As we kick off the new year, there is no shortage of predictions about how the market will act. Even in the face of consistently poor financial and economic news, there is quite a bit of optimism that the major indices will manage to have a pretty good 2008.

    As always, there are some bears who believe that we are in for a real pounding, but the predictions for 2008 -- especially the second half of the year -- are for the most part fairly upbeat.

    Should we care about the predictions for 2008? Absolutely not. Optimism is usually more empowering than pessimism, but whether we make money has little to do with predictions.

    What I know for certain about 2008 is that there will be plenty of ups and downs. We are going to have some good uptrends and some nasty downtrends no matter what the news might be. Where we ultimately finish the year will matter little. It is how you play the game.

    On Dec. 31, 1999, the S&P 500 closed at 1469.25; on Dec. 31, 2007, the S&P closed at 1438.36. So over the past eight years, the S&P 500 is essentially unchanged, but the opportunities to make money during that period were tremendous. If you had relied on a prediction that the market would be flat for eight years, you'd have ended up with nothing, but if you simply watched for opportunities to develop over time and jumped in when conditions were right, you likely did pretty well.

    So let's not worry too much about those predictions. The key is to be optimistic about our potential to make money no matter what the market beast may do. If we stay open-minded and flexible and protect our precious capital, we always have the potential to make some money.

    We are starting the new year on a slightly positive note. There are quite a few analyst reports out there moving things this morning, and oil is higher. Overseas markets are mixed and market players are moving a bit slowly so far.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LDK +8.5%, RTLX +2.0%... Solar sector seeing strength on LDK guidance and select solar stock news: AKNS +25.6% (licenses new solar panel technology to Suntech), CSUN +6.5%, DSTI +5.6%, SOLF +5.4%, ASTI +4.6%, CSIQ +3.7%, FSLR +3.3% (tgt upped to $345 at Calyon), STP +2.0% (profiled in New America section of IBD; also AKNS licenses new solar panel technology to Suntech), SPWR +1.5%, ESLR +1.3%... Other news: KMGB +10.0% (acquires high-purity process chemicals business; immediate positive impact on earnings), MVIS +7.4% (still checking), DEPO +7.4% (receives FDA approval for 1000 mg strength tablets of Glumetza), NLS +7.2% (signs commitment letter on new line of credit; also announces results from special meeting that all four Sherborne Investors have been elected to Board of Directors), CEF +6.5% (still checking), CTIC +6.4% (still checking), ACGY +4.7% (announces the award from TOT for the development of the deepwater PAZFLOR field), NED +4.2% (announces that it has developed China's first handheld graphic calculator technology), BVF +4.0% (announces supply agreement for commercialization of extended-release Tramadol), OBAS +4.0% (to acquire approximately 10% of Scopus Video Networks-SCOP), GMO +3.7% (announces Molybdenum Supply Agreement with ArcelorMittal), CROX +3.2% (intra-period checks remain firm; "Mammoth" style drives seasonal mindshare - Piper Jaffray), HOKU +2.6% (exercises option in polysilicon supply agreement with Solar-Fabrik subsidiary; also announces HOKU and Sanyo amend polysilicon supply agreement), BIDZ +2.6% (announces it repurchased 100,000 shares of its common stock in open market for price of $886k), BRCM +2.1% (announces judge issues injunction against Qualcomm; also upgraded to Strong Buy at Needham), SDTH +2.1% (announced it has developed a new NPCC product, NPCCB-100, for use in color ink jet paper), IQW +1.7% (continues to actively pursue financing options and solutions and to explore various strategic alternatives), MSO +1.5% (speculation that Susan Lyne, the CEO and president, may be looking to exit the company - NY Post), SIGM +1.4% (SIGM and Fujitsu Microelectronics America will collaborate to deliver Wireless HDAV technology solutions), CAM +1.4% (awarded $190 mln contract for subsea equipment offshore Venezuela)... Analyst upgrades: AMZN +2.0% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), YHOO +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at Think Equity), HGSI +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Swann), PCLN +1.4% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), HUM +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), MSSR +1.0% (upgraded to Buy at Morgan Joseph).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    General news: SNV -54.3% (completes spin-off of TSYS), DISH -14.1% (co's distribution of separate stock for EchoStar Holding went effective 1/1, each shareholder receives 0.20 share of the same class of common stock), PAY -8.0% (delays 10-k filing and provides update on timing of restatement process), JADE -4.4% (pulling back slightly after last week's 60% surge), PHH -4.2% (announces termination of merger agreement), CNTY -3.7% (announces 100% ownership of Tollgate), QCOM -3.7% (BRCM announces judge issues injunction against Qualcomm), GRMN -2.4% (2008 could get tougher - CIBC), CAL -2.0% (still checking)... Analyst downgrades: RESP -3.0% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), LSI -3.0% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), CAKE -2.8% (downgraded to Market Underweight at Bear Sterns; also hearing downgraded to Hold at Wedbush), AMD -2.4% (downgraded to Sell at BofA), OXPS -2.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at BMO Capital), DECK -2.0% (hearing downgraded to Hold at Wedbush), O -1.9% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), TISI -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at BB&T), TXT -1.8% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), NCMI -1.6% (downgraded to Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), SBUX -1.5% (downgraded to Peer Perform at Bear Sterns), UNH -1.2% (downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC), INTC -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), DRE -1.1% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), PFCB -1.0% (downgraded to Market Underweight at Bear Sterns).
  • Nov. Construction Spending 0.1% @ vs. -0.4% consensus
    Dec ISM Index @ 47.7 vs. 50.5 consensus
    Dec ISM Prices Paid 68.0 @ vs. 65.0 consensus
  • Euroopas liiguvad jutud, et bin Laden on elus ja nurka aetud ning lähipäevil saadakse mees kätte (hiljuti tõsteti mehe pea eest makstavat tasu USA valitsuse poolt). Ei tea, kuivõrd tõe pähe seda võtta, aga mõtlesin teada anda...
  • palju pappi antakse? ja kus ta nurka aeti? (kiirustab lennupileteid broneerima)
  • Kui tõsi taga, siis saab olema huvitav vaadata kuidas võtta arreteerida inimest, kel on pommivöö ümber ja iga hetk valmis end koos end ümbritsevate inimestega õhku laskma.
  • Summa bin Ladenini viiva info eest on $50 miljonit...
  • Kui bin Laden kätte saadakse tuleb väike ralli, eelmised korrad on küll jõnksu ülesse teinud.
  • Eelmised korrad kui Bin Laden kätte saadi?
  • hmmm... indexid 1-2% miinusesse kukkunud. Oskab keegi seletada, mis selle põhjus on? Kas mingit tähtsad halvad tulemused/prognoosid avaldatud?
  • .....no jah saadi kätte aga lasi jalga...kas te tõesti siis ei tea!?
    Ajakirjanduses oli kõlakas, et oldi kättesaamisele lähedal!
  • Heiti, ISM indeks on piisavalt tähtis, et taas majanduslanguse hirmu külvata. Näit alla 50 tähendab, et ettevõtted ei suuda enam laieneda, mistõttu tööhõive jõuab lõpuks tarbimise nõrkuseni.
  • Nafta hind on teinud uue rekordi - hetkel maksab barrel naftat $99.40.
  • see oleks jah hea kauplemise võimalus. võtad bin ladeni kinni, portfell kasvab:) siis shordid kõike mis olemas ja lased tal punuma panna. siis jälle püüad kinni. jne. pärast annad 50M talle tänutäheks.
  • Kas 50miljonit dollarit on seda väärt, et USA valitsus lõikab su näo täielikult ümber ja sind eraldatakse oma perest ja lähedastest. Lisaks sellele oled elu lõpuni USA valitsuse jälgimise all.

    American dream:)

    Ma arvan, et mitte.
  • Veebruari futuurlepingu maksimumhind on hetkel $99.675 - kuid ega neil sentidel suurt vahet pole...
  • hehe. CNBC karjus enneb BREAKING NEWS - OIL HITS 100. Nüüd on asi muudetud - OIL BRIEFLY HITS 100 :)
  • Tüüpiline uudiste ajastamine, vaadatakse graafikult, et selleks kellaajaks peaks hind 100 USD täis olema, siis õigel hetkel enne seda visatakse uudis netti , et siis selleks kellaajaks oleks uudis üle maailma levind.
  • Föderaalreservi protokoll avaldati mõned minutid tagasi - kiire kokkuvõte siis. Kuigi Föderaalreservi liikmed leiavad, et finantstingimused võivad turul kiiresti paraneda ning intressimäärade langetamise poliitika tuleb asendada tõstmistega, siis tänast poliitikat peetakse ikkagi piiravaks ning võimalik, et pingelise olukorra jätkudes (krediiditurul) on vaja ette võtta oluline intresside langetamise kampaania. Põhiinflatsiooni (core inflation) nähakse aja jooksul vähenemas. Igaljuhul tundub Bernanke put veel (vähemasti mingil määral) turu jaoks olemas olevat.

    Fed says 'Exceptionally Alert,' To Change Rates If Neeeded

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