Börsipäev 8. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 8. jaanuar

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  • Bloomberg vahendab, et tõenäoliselt teatatakse täna Bear Stearnsi CEO James Cayne'i tagasiastumisest, põhjuseks loomulikult suured investeeringud hüpoteekidega tagatud väärtpaberitesse, mille tulemusena teeniti oma esimene kvartalikahjum. Investoritel on meeles ka kahe hedge-fondi kokkuvajumine juulis. Turg tõlgendas probleeme 53%-lise aktsiahinna langusega viimase aasta jooksul.

    Päris üllatusena selline otsus ei tule, sest detsembri juhatuse koosolekul oli Cayne ka ise kinnitanud, et kaalub ameti maha panemist.
  • Mul sattus inglise keeles enne pihku:

    Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Estonia's inflation rate rose in December to a nine-year high as prices of food and housing advanced.

    The rate increased to 9.6 percent, the highest since August, 1998, from 9.1 percent in November, the statistics office based in the capital Tallinn said on its Web site today. Prices rose a monthly 0.7 percent.
  • Kurb aga tõsi. Pöörasime sellele teemale natuke tähelepanu Baltic Mornig Newsi all siin. Lähemalt saab vaadata ka Eesti Statistikaameti kodulehelt siit. 

  • Briefing vahendab Bill Grossi nägemust 2008. aasta osas, mis suuresti tugineb madalamatel intressimääradel - Groos loodab näha 3%lisi määru.

    Highlights from Bill Gross' January investment outlook, which likens the current financial system to that of a pyramid scheme: "Total derivatives amount to over $500 trillion, many of them finding their way onto the balance sheets of SIVs, CDOs and other conduits of their ilk comprising the Frankensteinian levered body of shadow banks... While the exact amount of reserves supporting the Bank of Shadows is undeterminable, let's go back to the $45 trillion BIS estimate of outstanding CDS for more insight. If total investment grade and junk bond defaults approach historical norms of 1.25% in 2008 (Moody's and S&P forecast something close) then $500 biln of these default contracts will be triggered resulting in losses of $250 bln or more to the "protection selling" party once recoveries are inserted into the equation. To put that number in perspective, many street estimates ascribe similar losses to subprime mortgages, a derivative category substantially distinct from CDS insurance... Pyramid schemes and chain letters collapse because there is no more credit to feed them. As the system of modern day levered shadow finance slows to a crawl, or even contracts at the edges, its ability to systemically fertilize economic growth must be called into question. And as the private shadow banks of the 21st century are found wanting, so then must public finance in the form of lower interest rates and increasing fiscal deficits fill the breach. The Fed will likely reduce Fed funds to 3% by midyear 2008. Congress and the Administration should, but likely won't, join hands in a tax relief program that benefits low income homeowners."
  • Paneme selle lõigu Six Flagsi (SIX) kohta ka siia Briefingust. Kuigi 2008. aasta tulemus on võti ettevõtte edasise tegevuse osas, on hea teada, et 4. kvartal läks hästi (mõningaid parke hoiti see aasta tavalisest kauem lahti) ning et hooajalpiletite müük on väga hästi edenenud.

    Co announces rev and attendance results for its Q4 ended Dec 31, 2007. Total rev for 4Q07 increased 7% to approx $111 mln, vs consensus estimate of $108.6 mln, and from $104 mln in the prior-year period. Attendance increased 0.1 mln, or 4%, to 2.8 mln from 2.7 mln in the prior-year period, driven by Dec performance. As of Dec 31, 2007, advance sales of 2008 season passes increased by a significant double-digit percentage compared to the number of 2007 season passes sold as of December 31, 2006.
  • Saksamaa DAX +1.12%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.01%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.66%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.48%

    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)

    Poola WIG -0.27%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.19%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.24%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.12%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.44%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.35%

    Tai Set +0.42%

    India Sensex +0.29%

  • Punk Ziegel on praeguse CEO lahkumise valguses alandamas Bear Stearnsi hinnasihti $67-ni eelneva $94 pealt.

    The firm believes that Mr. Cayne must go. The firm says he was the architect of what now appears to have been a failed business strategy. Under his tutelage, the firm focused its efforts too heavily on the mortgage and credit derivatives markets. The firm says the firm must find a new less cyclical direction. Its core businesses like mortgages, credit derivatives, prime brokerage and investment banking may all be facing contraction while the co is losing market share in these shrinking markets.
  • Don't Lose Your Footing on the Slope of Hope

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/8/2008 7:49 AM EST

    Character is an essential tendency. It can be covered up, it can be messed with, it can be screwed around with, but it can't be ultimately changed. It's the structure of our bones, the blood that runs through our veins.
    -- Sam Shepard

    The poor employment report last Friday has helped to cement a change in market character. We are now in a downtrend, and the bears are in control. That doesn't mean we won't have a vigorous rally or some good action, but we need to assume that it will eventually fail rather than continue and take the market back to its highs.

    One of the easiest ways to lose money is to repeatedly chase long-side entries in a struggling market. There is a strong inclination to hope that a downward slide will suddenly end and a lasting rally will begin. In a market with bad character, the rallies fizzle quickly, and if you are overly aggressive on the long side you fund yourself suddenly stuck and having to take losses.

    In an uptrending market, a phenomenon known as "climbing the wall of worry" can keep things going. This occurs when investors doubt the sustainability of a rally because of a long list of worries and concerns. When the market fails to roll over, investors put some money to work because they don't want to be left out. That pushes the market higher and entices more people to inch in and keep things climbing higher.

    In a downtrending market, there is an opposite phenomenon knows as "sliding down the slope of hope." After the market takes a big hit, there is often hope that we will recover and start working our way back up. So investors start to put money back to work in hopes they will catch the bottom. When the market fails to deliver sustained upside, investors give up which pressures the market. That pressure causes more investors to become discouraged and more selling ensues. Hope prevents us from getting a complete washout, and instead we slowly slide lower as discouragement takes hold.

    I don't want to be vague about this. This market is now technically broken, and that means we need to be highly defensive and protect our capital. However, there is a very high likelihood we are going to see a strong bounce back up in the near term. I suspect the catalyst will be a move by the Fed. We will get a fast and furious rally on the news, but it will be used to unload positions and will fizzle fairly quickly.

    Plan your strategy accordingly and don't forget that the essential character of this market has changed. We are going to get a decent short-term rally, but in the longer run we are in for a rough time that is likely to last for a while.

    We have some positive action in the early going this morning. There isn't much news on the wires, but overseas markets were generally higher. Gold is up strongly and oil is bouncing back after taking a hit yesterday.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: AEHR +16.1%, RPM +7.9%, NEWP +7.0%, WBSN +5.9%, FRNT +1.4%... Other news: ISIS +35.1% (ISIS and Genzyme announce strategic alliance), SIRT +13.7% (announces positive results with proprietary version of Resveratrol, SRT501, in a Phase 1b Type 2 diabetes clinical study), VMED +7.4% (SRM Fund Management raises stake to 8.26% from 7.12%), SBUX +7.2% (announces strategic initiatives to increase shareholder value and Chairman Howard Schultz returns as CEO; also upgraded to Neutral at BofA), ZIXI +4.8% (extends distribution agreement with Google), PZE +3.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EBS +2.5% (announces that the final Phase II clinical study results for Typhoid Vaccine reaffirms clinical endpoints met), NRGN +2.3% (announces results of multiple ascending dose studies with experimental obesity drug), GG +2.2% (Achieves record gold production in 2007), VSAT +1.9% (Eutelsat, ViaSat form strategic partnership - WSJ; also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Collins Stewart), MSO +1.6% (CEO Lyne will not leave company - Reuters), BSC +1.5% (CEO James Cayne to step down, sources say - WSJ), OMNI +1.5% (Chief Executive Officer James Eckert to retire in 2008), DOW +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), BP +1.3% (still checking), BMY +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), JEC +1.2% (receives contract from U.S. Air Force)... Analyst upgrades: PCS +6.3% (upgraded to Buy at Soleil), AUY +3.8% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), INFY +2.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), KGC +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), AEM +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform at CIBC), WIT +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Lehman), BAX +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: CMOS -8.8%, GRB -7.9%, BLUD -7.5%, DRAD -7.5%, EAT -6.2%, ATCO -3.7%, CC -1.9%, CSCX -1.6%... Other news: CROX -4.4% (Cowen says checks with industry contacts imply risk of continued inventory, margin concerns), SGEN -4.2% (earns milestone payment from initiation of SGN-40 Phase Ib clinical trial), CDNS -3.8% (still checking), ZLC -3.1% (Breeden Capital Management is gearing up for a proxy battle - NY Post), BSX -1.3% (announces court decision and no longer sells the NIR stent), ELOY -1.3% (announced that it has recently signed two additional Behavioral Analytics contracts), BAS -1.1% (reports selected operating data for December 2007)... Analyst downgrades: CC -7.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Cowen), EAT -6.2% (downgraded to Underweight at KeyBanc), ISRG -4.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), MHS -3.2% (hearing downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), MIPS -3.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Longbow), AMWD -2.4% (initiated with a Sector Perform at CIBC), UNFI -2.0% (hearing downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), AMZN -1.9% (initiated with a Sell at Amtech), ITW -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Merrill Lynch), ALV -1.3% (hearing added to Pan-European Sell List at tier-1 firm), ROK -1.1% (downgraded to Sell at Merrill Lynch).
  • LHV Pro alla lisasime uue investeerimisidee - tegu on Playtechi (PTEC.L) konkurendi GigaMediaga (GIGM), kes Aasia mängurluse maastikul end väga koduselt tunneb ning usume, et viimase aja GIGMi aktsia kukkumine on investoritele pakkumas võimalust. Edasisest saab lugeda juba LHV Pro alt.
  • 09:30 LLY Eli Lilly announces FDA approves Cialis for once daily use for the treatment of Erectile Dysfunction (54.41 -0.14)

    kas nüüd hakkavad siis ka turud TÕUSMA?
  • Täna avaldas oma Q4 tulemused USA üks suurimaid majadeehitajaid KB Homes (KBH), mille aktsia kohta teenitud kahjum $9.99 oli oluliselt suurem analüütikute oodatud -$1.08-st. Kuigi osa kahjumist tuli kanda maa väärtuse allahindamisest ning eelmiste perioodide maksukohustuste edasilükkamisest, jäädi konsensuse prognoosile alla ka põhitegevuses. ASP vähenes kvartali jooksul 12%, üleantud majade arv 22% ja uute tellimuste arv 32% 

    Samuti ei oldud eriti optimistlikud 2008. aasta kohta:

    We believe 2008 will be another tough year for the homebuilding industry, said Mezger. However, we will continue our efforts from the past year to strengthen our balance sheet, streamline our cost structure, align our organization with expected reduced delivery volumes, and sharpen our operating disciplines and strategies. We believe this approach will provide KB Home with a solid financial position on which it can leverage its geographic diversity and proven built-to-order business model to capitalize on growth opportunities that will develop as housing markets stabilize.

  • 10:00 Pending Home Sales -2.6% vs -0.7% consensus, prior revised to +3.7% from +0.6%

    viimase kuu nõrkus + varasema perioodi revideerimine annab kokku kergelt positiivse tulemuse ...
  • Rosengren says continued housing investment decline has increased risk of significant economic downturn
    Rosengren says TAF enhances Fed's ability to respond to liquidity problems
    Rosengren says previous housing declines led to economic downturns; history may or may not repeat itself
    Rosengren says housing prices could fall more rapidly in 2008 if economy not strong
    Fed's Rosengren says if forecasts correct, we will have longest housing investment decline in 50 years

    Ühelt poolt taaskord kinnitatakse väga negatiivset sõnumit kinnisvaraturu kohta (viimase 50 aasta pikima languse võimalus housing'usse investeerimisel), kuid teisalt näitab, et Fed on ilmselt sunnitud agressiivselt püksirihma intressimäärade ümber lõdvendama.
  • The rumor was CFC would file for Chapter 11 this week

    paistab peamine turu ärakukkumise põhjus
  • CFC tuleb urust välja ja ütleb, et ettevõtte kohta käivatel kuulujuttudel pole alust. Turg liigub üles.
  • aga telekomid toovad selle alla taas ... niipalju siis kaitsvast sektorist :)
  • Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks fell, led by telephone and financial companies, after AT&T Inc. said it faces ``softness'' in its consumer business and speculation increased that mortgage losses may accelerate.

    AT&T, the biggest U.S. phone company, declined the most in seven weeks after Chief Executive Officer Randall Stephenson said slowing economic growth is hurting its consumer business. Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage company, tumbled the most since October 1987 on concern it faces a funding shortage.

    The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 3.41, or 0.2 percent, to 1,412.77 as of 2:57 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 68.53, or 0.5 percent, to 12,758.96. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 5.4, or 0.2 percent, to 2,494.06.

    To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in New York at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net .

    Last Updated: January 8, 2008 14:58 EST
  • ...ja nii nad tapsid Ferdinandi... :(
  • eelmisel korral Ferdinandi tapmsega sügisel sain ränga hoobi portfelli:)!
  • kas keegi osakb öelda miks lhv-s ja yahoos optsioonide hinnad erinevad on ?
  • Tõenäoliselt uuendatakse hindu erineval ajal. Mina LHV investeerimiskontolt küll hindu ei jälgi. Ikka USA portaalid.
  • äkki oskad soovitada mõnda portaali kust optsioonide hinud jälgida?
  • Tasuta portaalid on kõik mingi 20 minsase viiteajaga. Yahoo finance-s ongi 20 min. Kui tahad reaalajas, siis pead juba maksma. Hea koht on ka ivolatility.com, kuid seal ka viiteajaga. Kui reaalajas tahad, siis nõuavad ikka head raha. Vaata järele.
    prophet.net on ka koht, kus saad optsioonid reaalajas ja graafikuna, kui jälle pappi maksad.
  • soovitan optsioone mitte jälgida, muidugi juhul, kui kaotatud rahast kahju hakkab:)!
  • Rainkelgumalle
    Palju sa optsioonidest tead on ka iseasi. Sellel ivolatility.com ja http://www.cboe.com/ on ka võimalus optsioonidest ja selle käitumisest lähemalt teada saada.
  • Tegelikult võid siin lehel otsingutesse ka "optsioonid" kirjutada ja foorumite alt otsingu tulemusena tuleb selle kohta igasugust infot.
  • jep ma tean küll tasulisi lehti kuid summad millega ma mängin ei küündi isegi hindadeni mis seal küsitakse veel vähem kasum.
    Aga tänx ikkagi
  • optsioonidega võita on ju lihtne, 33% on võidu võimalus:)! 33% et turg tõuseb, 33%, et turg langeb ja 33% et läheb külgsuunas ja aeg kaob, mured jäävad:)!
  • Muredest üle saamine on põhiline, mis turg sinult nõuab. Kui enam valus ei ole. Siis tulebki optsioonide ja futidega mängima hakata. Muidu läheb liiga rapsimiseks.
  • unustasin lisamast et 33+33+33 on koku 99%, see 1 % on see, mis rikkaks teeb:)!
  • upser
    sa teed ikka algajad pakutud 1% kohe õnnelikuks.
    deem, mul pole kah siis lootust sellele peenemale kraamile... "optsioonidele".
    (rämps)aktsiad tasuvad siis selle 1% võimaluse korral ikka rohkem ära :)
  • Paanikat ei ole veel kuskil, seltsimehed. Kui VIX 30 ligi jõuab - see on paanika. Arvatavasti näeme veel draamat lähipäevadel ja TÕSIST müüki.
  • mnjah. spekuleerin et kui VIX üle 30-ne viskab ja seal paar nädalat püsib,siis järgmised paar aastat näeme VIX-i pigem 10 läheduses,kuna lihtne rahvas on nii ära hirmutatud ja rahast lagedaks tehtud.

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