Börsipäev 24. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

LHV finantsportaal

Foorum Investeerimine

Börsipäev 24. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Initial Claims 301K vs 320K consensus, prior revised to 302K from 301K
  • Meelsus turgudel käib servast serva: täna spekuleeritakse juba, et intressimäärade langus laseb lõpule viia mitmed toppama jäänud ülevõtmised ja suurendab taas M&A aktiivsust
  • Hiljuti soetas Joakim Heleniuse juhitav Trigon Capital osalused Araabia Ühendemiraatide pangas Dubai Islamic Bank, mida peetakse maailma esimeseks islamipangaks, ning kahes Türgi islamipangas - Albaraka Bank ning Asya Bank.

    Kes teab kas sellistel pankadel ka tikkerid on?

    Albaraka Bank - ALBRK.E
    Istanbuli börs http://www.ise.org/index.htm , üks tore lehekülg
  • Veel 1 näide kui muutlik on hetkel turuosaliste meelestatus

    Täna käib kõva majaehitajate reitingute tõstmine, sealjuures on SPDR S&P Homebuilders (XHB) juba tõusnud 9. jaanuaril tehtud põhjadest +25%

  • USA KV-ga siis kõik nüüdsest korras. nii tore, nii tore
  • Henno, minu arvutuste järgi on tõus 35 protsenti.
    9. jaanuari põhi 15,2 -> 20,5, eilne tipp
  • Euroopa indeksid on ülivõimsalt plussis. USA on päeva alustamas pisikese plussiga.

    Saksamaa DAX +5.91%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +5.09%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +4.27%

    Hispaania IBEX +5.50%

    Venemaa MICEX +4.99%

    Poola WIG +3.53%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.06%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.29%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.31%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.57%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +3.06%

    Tai Set -1.90%

    India Sensex -2.12%

  • Be Wary About Embracing the Uptrend
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/24/2008 8:30 AM EST

    Let Hercules himself do what he may, / The cat will mew and dog will have his day. -- Hamlet, William Shakespeare

    A powerful intraday reversal has many investors breathing a sigh of relief. The steady downtrend was showing no signs of abating and was in fact picking up speed as Apple (AAPL) dragged down big-cap technology stocks that had led the market for most of 2007. That selling pressure was the final capitulation that was needed to finally wash out the last hopeful bulls and set us up for a big swing.

    But make no mistake -- this was a rally of dogs. The big gainers were the worst groups that have been under pressure for many months. Homebuilders, restaurants, truckers, retailers and banks were the big winners, while stocks like Google (GOOG) and Research In Motion (RIMM) finished solidly in the red.

    Despite the quality of the leadership, the intraday swing was of impressive magnitude. That certainly affects sentiment, but it is extremely important to keep in mind that this sort of action is typical of bear markets. The biggest and most aggressive swings occur within market downtrends. According to Investor's Business Daily, nine of the biggest positive days in Wall Street history occurred during the bear market of 2000 to 2002.

    It certainly is possible that the big swing yesterday is a short-term bottom. We certainly were oversold enough to support a bounce, and some further upside would not be a surprise. But technically, we have not had a real retest and the market trend is still clearly down.

    The nature of the leadership yesterday also makes a turnaround very suspect. The likelihood that the worst is over for economically sensitive groups like truckers and restaurants is questionable. Clearly the thinking behind the move yesterday was that lower rates are going to give banks better margins on loans and help bolster consumer spending. We will have to wait to see whether things will be fixed so easily, but if nothing else, we know that the impact of monetary spending is not going to kick in for six months or more. A strong argument can be made for the proposition that the Fed has been too slow in taking action.

    The bears are still out there, and they are patiently waiting for a chance to remount short positions. This countertrend bounce is not going to be without substantial obstacles. I suspect that the bulls may be able to hold things up into the Fed meeting on Tuesday as hope of another rate cut keeps sentiment positive, but after that, we are at the mercy of economic data that are likely to indicate that a recession is still a good possibility.

    So enjoy the bounce, but start thinking about exit points and potential shorts down the road. Don't get sucked into the hype that the overemotional pundits are likely to put forth about how this market is going to go straight back up. We will have some rocky action ahead of us, and yesterday's big swing won't change that.

    We have a positive open on the way as Nokia (NOK) posted a good report and overseas markets continue to rally. Microsoft's (MSFT) earnings tonight will be the main focus.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FFIV +17.4% (also upgraded to Outperform at Baird, announces buy back up to $200 mln in stock), NVEC +16.1%, TRMB +15.1% (also announces repurchase program up to $250 mln), SYMC +9.2%, PLXS +8.4%, PLCM +7.7%, CBST +7.5%, QCOM +7.3%, LSI +7.2%, POT +6.5%, WDC +6.3% (also upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt raised to $38 at Hambrecht), XRX +5.7% (also announces $1 bln buyback), SBCF +4.9%, NOK +4.8%, CTXS +4.4%, FLWS +4.1%, CVO +3.8%, PRXL +3.5%, BAX +3.4%, COF +2.9%, SANM +2.8%, PSSI +2.1%, AMCC +1.7%, BXS +1.5%, WSTL +1.3%, QLGC +1.3%, NE +1.3%... Select European banks trading higher despite weakness at Societe Generale after the co uncovered fraud by a rogue trader: CS + 4.1%, BCS + 3.4%, DB + 1.8%... Other news: MBRK +192.8% (says the FDA approves its Amoxicillin PULSYS for pharyngitis/tonsillitis in adolescents and adults), ADLR +13.3% (Adolor and GSK confirm 'favorable' FDA advisory committee meeting for ENTEREG), MBI 7.8% and ABK +5.1% (Bond insurers trading higher on continued reports regarding potential bailout), SHRP +2.6% (Sharper Image and EB Brands sign licensing agreement). Analyst upgrades: HGSI +8.5% (upgraded to Outperform at Bear Sterns), MFE +6.5% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup, upgraded to Outperform at Bear Sterns), THC +2.8% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), NNDS +2.3% (upgraded to Top Pick at RBC).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: FTK -21.1%, THQI -12.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Broadpoint), EBAY -9.4% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), SPWR -8.4%, MRCY -8.3%, RYN -5.5%, KELYA -5.5%, DLX -4.5%, HSY -4.5%, CY -4.5%, CNS -4.4%, CBE -4.3%, DGII -4.1%, KNX -4.1%, LCC -4.1%, ALK -4.0%, HXL -3.7%, BPFH -3.5%, RKT -3.4%, CCMP -3.2%, PTV -2.9%, WRLD -2.9%, MTSC -2.8%, AVT -2.6%, AVCT -2.6%, CHIC -2.4%, EXR -2.2%, GMT -2.1%, ZOLL -1.9%, SOV -1.8%, SRDX -1.7%, VARI -1.5%... Select solar stocks showing weakness in sympathy with SPWR earnings: SOLF -9.0%, FSLR -3.9%, JASO -3.2%... Select Chinese stocks trading lower: ACH -5.5%, SNP -4.9%, LMC -4.0%, CHA -3.6%, CHL -3.5%, LFC -3.1%... Other news: SCA -9.5% (provides update on its capital plan), BCRX -9.3% (updates Peramivir clinical development plan), HLYS -8.3% (receives deficiency letter from NASDAQ), LINC -6.2% (clarifies impact of alternative lending arrangements, will have a minimal impact), RS -4.7% (replaces accountant and external auditor Ernst & Young with KPMG), XL -4.1% (announces expected charges of $1.5-1.7 bln for Q4 2007 related to credit market conditions)
  • martk, ma vaatasin 9.01 close eilse close vastu ja see on +27,33% ... see 25% oli umbkaudne pakkumine graafikule pilku heites
  • Vahepeal tasub peale visata pilk ka tulemuste tabelile. Nädala lõpus teen ka väikese kokkuvõtte.

  • Viimase tõusu taga ootus uue info osas võlakirjade kindlustajate kohta:

    The NYS Insurance Department will issue a statement later this morning on effort regarding bond insurers, spokesman says
  • hmmmmmm... pilk peale visatud ja SUUR küsimus kohe. SPWR tulemused justkui head, aga aktsia hetkel -11% (vahepeal oli isegi rohkem). Miks nii siis???
  • Existing Home Sales 4.89 mln vs 4.95 mln consensus

    Pole kõige hullemad numbrid.
  • turg teeb uued tipud majade müüginumbrite peale

    üks päev on siis turuosaliste arvates kõik läbi ja teine päev kõik hästi :)
  • Heiti, suur küsimus, aga lihtne vastus. Ettevõtte pikaajalised prognoosid vastasid ootustele, kuid lühiajalistes anti negatiivse väljavaatega prognoos. 1. kvartalis oodatakse EPSi $0.33 kuni $0.36 vs konsensus $0.38. 2008. aasta tervikprognoos $2.00 kuni $2.10 vastab aga ootustele $2.06 osas. Praegu lihtsalt turg eelistab lühiajalistele näitudele keskenduda, olles pigem staadiumis, et 'rohkem numbreid, vähem juttu'.
  • Kõige lihtsam oleks arvata, et enne Fedi plaanilist kogunemist suudetakse tugevust hoida, ülemüüdud indeksid aitavad sellele samuti kaasa. Aga teistest foorumitest läbi käinud kolmetäheline lühend sobib siia lõppu muidugi hästi...
  • Aega ikka kulub veel: White House says no final deal yet on stimulus but good progress is being made 
  • Pole tükk aega siin foorumis spekulatsioone levitanud. Teeme seda täna siis. Nimelt Cramer usub, et Bear Sterns(BSC) oleks parim kandidaat ülevõtuks. Kes oleks ostjad? UBS (UBS), konservatiivsuse poolest tuntud Deutsche Bank (DB) või ehk Credit Suisse (CS). See, kas see jutt/arvamus ka kunagi realiseerub, polegi nii väga oluline, vaid pigem tahan näidata, et suured M&A kuulujutud taas tänavatel turgu toetamas.

    Cramer: "Yes, I am predicting it: Bear will be bought, and it will be bought at a hefty premium as part of the needed consolidation during this period. I would buy it. And I would buy calls on it out a month. I think you will make great money. "

  • House Leaders Pelosi, Boehner and Treasury's Paulson to hold news conference on stimulus at 1:30 pm.

    See on siis 15 minuti pärast.
  • Tulemus?
    1) 117 miljonit USA perekonda saavad maksurebatte majanduse stimuleerimise paketi raames.
    2) Fannie ja Freddie laenulimiidid tõusevad üheks aastaks ajutiselt $625 500 peale praeguselt $417 000 pealt.
    3) Kui tänane pakett majandust ei aita, siis ollakse valmis veelgi uusi meetmeid rakendama.
  • ETFC - miks punane triip??? turuinfo seisatud...
  • Microsoft(MSFT) on bueno ja aktsia kogub järelturul tuure.

    MSFT prelim $0.50 vs $0.46 First Call consensus; revs $16.37 bln vs $15.95 bln First Call consensus
    MSFT sees Q3 $0.43-0.45 vs $0.44 First Call consensus; sees revs $14.3-14.6 bln vs $14.43 bln First Call consensus
    MSFT sees FY08 $1.85-1.88 vs $1.81 First Call consensus; sees revs $59.9-60.5 bln vs $59.36 bln First Call consensus
  • mis värk selle ETFC-ga on? vahepeal oli peatatud asi, ja nüüd 13 prosse plussis???
  • Heiti, tulemuste raporteerimise ajaks oli Etrade'iga kauplemine peatatud lihtsalt mõneks ajaks.
  • Vot see on huvitav uudis:

    ABK AMBAC Fincl: Wilbur Ross in takeover talks with ABK, according to U.K.'s Evening Standard - Reuters (11.33 -2.37) -Update-

    Wilbur Ross takeover talks with ABK are serious and progressing well
  • Joel, ei arvanudki et see turuinfo seiskamine teie viga oleks :)
  • Ei ole short. Ei julge neid (ABK, MBI jne) üldse puttuda tegelikult. Lihtsalt et kui realiseeruks mõni ülevõtt võlakirjade kindlustajate ehk bond insurerite (ma usun, et varsti teatakse seda sõnapaari üldsuses vähemalt sama palju, kui madalakvaliteedilisi laene tähistavat väljendit 'subprime') hulgas, mõjuks see turgudele lilleliselt :) Olen siin rääkinud, et tuleks pöörata tähelepanu valitsuse võimalikule sekkumisele ja sektori toetamisele, kuid M&A oleks veelgi parem. See viitaks, et pankrotihirmud oleksid ehk justkui pisut liiga suureks paisutatud selles finantssektorile äärmiselt vajalikus harus.
  • Ma pidasin silmas, et selle mehe ülevõtud on äärmiselt "huvitavad".. üldine plaan on selline, et ostab kokku distressed ettevõtte võlad, tekitab pankrotimenetluse, ostab ära firma varad võileivahinnaga ja jätab aktsionäridele koti pähe. Firmast endast ma ei tea suurt midagi, aga kunagi sai uuritud ühte firmat, mis võeti Rossi poolt üle (Cone Mills), seetõttu ka kohe eelaarvamus, et siin läheb samamoodi.

Teemade nimekirja


Et pakkuda sulle parimat kasutajakogemust, kasutame LHV veebilehel küpsiseid. Valides "Nõustun", annad nõusoleku kõikide küpsiste kasutamiseks. Tutvu küpsiste kasutamise põhimõtetega.