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Börsipäev 5. märts

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  • Tähtsa reedese tööjõuraporti eel on meil ka täna siiski mõningaid majandusuudiseid. ISM indeksi näit teenustele veebruarikuu kohta (millelt oodatakse eelmise kuuga võrreldes paranemist) ning jaanuarikuiste tehaste tellimuste muutus (konsensus -2.5% vs eelmise kuu +2.3%). Mõlemad numbrid avalikustatakse pool tundi pärast turu avanemist.

    Eilne turnaround turu lõpus aga näitas, et kui turule antakse vähimgi põhjus tõusuks, siis seda ka agaralt kasutatakse. Sedakorda olid selleks jutud Ambacile (ABK) osutavast abiplaanist, mille detailidest peaksime lähiajal täpsemalt kuulma. Turud on eelturul hetkel üle poole protsendi plussis.

    Positiivsust lisas ka Cisco(CSCO) juhtkonna poolt väljendatud positiivsus eilsel Morgan Stanley Tehnoloogia ettevõtete konverentsikõnel. Lühike inglisekeelne kokkuvõte sellest:

    CEO reaffirms long-term growth rate of 12-17%, and says it is even more comfortable with this guidance since its last conference call. The CEO says he expects this downturn to be short and shallow, and says he expects it to last 2-3 qtrs, or maybe 4-5 qtrs if slowdown is somewhat worse than expected.

  • Venemaal tõusis 2007. aastal hüpoteeklaenude maht 160%, mis kogumahuks teeb RUB 611 miljardit ($25 miljardit). Suur osa sellest tuli kahe suurima panga arvelt. Sberbanki ja VTB turuosa kokku kasvas eelmise aasta ca 65% pealt 80%-ni.

    Sektori kõrgeid kasvunumbreid oodatakse ka selleks aastaks, Vedomosti sõnul kahekordistuvad laenumahud veel ühe aasta jooksul, jõudes RUB 1.33 trijonini.
  • http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/

    Täna kell 15.15 juba ilmub sellele lehele ADP tööjõuraport, mis võib heita valgust ka reedel laekuvale tööjõuraporti numbrile
  • BJ Wholesales (BJ) on südilt tarbija nõrkusega võitlemas. Veebruarikuu võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrid +5.9% vs oodatud +4% ning 4. kvartali kasuminumber oodatust suurem koos enam-vähem inline müügituluga.

    Oodatust paremale kasuminumbrile aitas kaasa 4. fiskaalkvartali viimane kuu jaanuar, mis üllatas ettevõtet positiivselt. Lisaks olid erinevad kulud kardetust pisut väiksemad.
  • NAHBi (National Association of Home Builders) kinnisvaraturu prognoos peaks olema üks pessimitlikumaid, mida näinud olen. Hindade langust oodatakse aasta jooksul koguni 22% ehk 2005. aastal tehtud tipust 55%. Housing starts peaks aasta jooksul langema 31% ning selle põhja ei prognoosita enne järgmist aastat.
  • Lisaks sellele, et Saks (SKS) täna oma neljanda kvartali tulemused teatas, avaldati ka veebruarikuu võrreldavate poodide müüginumbrid. Tulemused olid ootuspärased:

    Reports Q4 (Jan) earnings of $0.19 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.01 worse than the First Call consensus of $0.20; revenues rose 4.7% year/year to $999.7 mln vs the $993.6 mln consensus. Co sees Y08 comparable store sales growth in the mid-single digits, with the assumption of low-to-mid single digit comparable store sales growth in the first half of the year and mid-single digit comparable store sales growth in the second half of the year. Comparable store sales assumptions for much of the store base are relatively conservative.

    Samal ajal veebruai müük oli üle oodatu:

    Saks reports Feb same store sales +3.4% vs -0.3% Briefing.com consensus 

    Välja toodi ka veebruari tugevamad ja nõrgemad kategooriad:

    The strongest categories at Saks Fifth Avenue were men’s shoes, accessories, and contemporary apparel; fine jewelry; and fragrances. The weakest categories at Saks Fifth Avenue for February were women’s classic bridge apparel, women’s petites and large sizes, women’s designer eveningwear, and soft accessories.

  • Nõrk number (nagu oodatudki/kardetudki)
    ADP Employment Change -23K vs 18K consensus. prior 126K
  • Väike lõik Morgan Stanley General Electric'u (GE) promomisest, mida ka Doug Kass Realmoney all välja toob:

    "GE stock has recently triggered four historical buy signals: 1) a relative P/E at or under 96% of the S&P 500's; 2) a "cash on cash" stock yield above its bond yield; 3) a bottom in earnings revisions; and 4) the stock at a discount to its sum-of-the-parts. Historically, GE stock has never hit all four buy signals at the same time. Just hitting buy signal No. 1 has historically led to the stock outperforming the S&P 500 77% of the time over the next 12 months by meaningful 590 basis points. Downward earnings revisions for GE appear to be over, and its 10% consensus EPS growth forecast is well below peer levels at closer to 15%."

  • Saksamaa DAX +1.25%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.77%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.49%

    Hispaania IBEX +1.70%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.57%

    Poola WIG +0.26%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.16%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.02%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.99%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.16%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.01%

    Tai Set -0.77%

    India Sensex +1.24%

  • Don't Confuse Cycles With Turns

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/5/2008 8:11 AM EST

    In all things there is a law of cycles. -- Publius Cornelius Tacitus, Roman Historian (55-117 AD)

    One of the most important things to keep in mind about the market is that it does not move in a straight line. Within downtrends there are bounces, and within uptrends there are pullbacks. These gentle waves, up and down, within a larger trend, makes for good trading opportunities for those with a short-term time frame, but they are also very dangerous because they so often fool market players into thinking that a major turn is at hand.

    Market players are predisposed to call market turns. Sometimes it feels like 80% of what we see in the media is focused on trying to determine when the market will change direction. Then as soon as we see a little counter-trend action the bigger picture is forgotten and hope blossoms over the chances that the major trend has now ended.

    After the very negative news flow and sentiment of the last few days this market was primed for some sort of relief bounce. It is the nature of a cycle that one side will push too hard at some point and the market will react by springing back. That is exactly what started yesterday afternoon and is continuing this morning.

    What is interesting about counter trend moves is that the market always finds some sort of news to justify the action. The continued saga of the bailout of bond insurers and some positive comments from Cisco (CSCO) was all that was needed to get some upside going.

    Our job is to simply recognize what is going on here. It is an oversold bounce within a downtrend. It may last a few days and you can trade it if your time frame is short enough. However the important thing is that you don't rush to believe that there is some significant change taking place. Maybe that eventually will be the case but we need to demand more proof.

    Unfortunately many folks are so anxious to call bottoms and turns that they will rush in on any counter-trend bounce. They ultimately end up as more selling fuel when things fizzle but their anxiety over being fully invested at the exact low usually causes much pain.

    We have a positive open on the way as more talk about a deal for bond insurers is enticing some buyers. Given how well anticipated this deal is it is going to be very interesting to see if there is anyone left to buy when it is finally finished.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BIG +18.5%, MFB +16.4%, CSIQ +9.4%, CAP +6.5%, SMTC +6.2% (announces new $50 mln stock buyback plan), DIET +2.6%, CXR +2.2%, PFE +1.2%... M&A news: PKTR +31.9% (Elliot Associates offers to aquire for $5.50/share in filing)... Select solar stocks showing strength following CSIQ earnings: SOLF +3.0%, SPWR +1.8%, ESLR +1.8%... Other news: PANC +39.1% (announces discovery of bevirimat patient response predictors; completed phase 2b dose escalation study determines optimal dose range and upgraded to Outperform at Bear Sterns), SCON +7.7% (closes on $15.0 million investment by Hunchun BaoLi Communication), CYD +7.1% (wins major contract for Beijing Olympics), TIBX +7.0% (Citigroup says better than 50/50 chance co is acquired in next 12 mos), CHU +6.4% (traded higher in overseas trading), ATML +6.2% (still checking), PCOP +4.9% (collaboration with Celgene Corporation advances compound into Phase 1 clinical development), TS +4.1% (still checking), AMLN +4.1% (still checking), TMA +3.9% (modestly rebounding after 60% drop over past two days), ABK +3.7% (unlikely to announce any capital raising deal Tuesday, according to source - Reuters), DIVX +3.3% (announces stock repurchase program of up to $20 mln of common stock), UBS +2.4% (still checking).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: PDLI -19.7% (ends sale process for company and restructures to focus on antibody discovery and development and downgraded to Equal Weight at Lehman), AMSWA -17.5%, GU -11.9%, FTEK -9.2%, IDSY -8.8%, KONG -5.6%, HLYS -4.1%, RNIN -2.9%, KCP -2.4%... Other news: FIX -8.2% (announces it has acquired Merit Mechanical), MGI -6.1% (Cramer says WU is poised to take share from ailing Moneygram), AFN -5.1% (still checking), TMS -3.1% (showing continued weakness), SWC -3.1% (still checking), CLMS -2.5% (releases comment on auction rate securities market; should the auctions continue to fail, shareholders may be impacted through lower distribution rates), SF -1.5% (files for secondary offering of 2.2 mln shares), MAT -1.1% (to issue $350 mln of senior notes)... Analyst downgrades: XFML -6.2% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), WHR -3.0% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), TSRA -2.6% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Friedman Billings).
  • ISM Services Composite 49.3 vs 47.3 consensus, prior 44.6
  • Crude oil trades to fresh all-time high of 103.98
  • AMBAC Fincl halted - news pending

    Turg hüppab positiivse uudise ootel.
  • Ambac Finantc (ABK) kauplemine peatatud. Uudised peaks kohe välja tulema.
  • 13:11 ABK AMBAC Fincl: CNBC commentator says he's hearing ABK is looking to raise $2 bln (11.34 +0.62) -Update-
  • Kui naftafutuurid veidi järgi annaks võiks näha ilusat tõusupäeva.
  • Laenaks ühe krooni, läheks kasiinosse ja võidaks miljoni...

    aaaaaga, ei võida :(
  • Clal Industries and Investments Ltd. announces that it is commencing a tender offer to purchase up to 2,338,686 ordinary shares of Fundtech (FNDT) for $12.50 per share, net to the seller in cash, less any required withholding taxes and without interest. If more than the maximum number of shares offered to be purchased in the tender offer are tendered, Clal Industries will purchase shares on a pro rata basis.
  • Cial on huvitatud oma osaluse suurendamisest. Turult sellist osalust taga ajades peaks ostuorderitega väljas olema üle 2 kuu. Ausalt öeldes olen väga skeptiline selle suhtes, palju nad sellise hinnaga müüjaid üldse leiavad...
  • Clal'iga on vist ka see probleem, et suure osaluse tõttu nad vist ei saakski oma osalust muidu suurendada, kui vaid läbi avaliku pakkumise. Kuna FNDT on Pro valik, siis ootaks kommentaari, et äkki on mingi seadus, mis ütleb, et pärast üle 50% osaluse ületamist peavad nad mingi väljaostu pakkumise tegema?
    Ise olen veel "vee all", kuigi ennustasin hullemat (aktsiapõhi $7 ja ülevõtt $10) seetõttu ei tormanud ka kohe aktsiaid juurde ostma.
  • Lisaksin ühe spekulatsiooni: pakkumine tehti Cannell Capitali huvist müüa oma osalus?
  • velvo, töö käib. Ning kindlasti lähiajal kommenteerime.

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