Börsipäev 27. märts - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 27. märts

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  • Kuigi ka prügitööstuse tulud kannatavad majanduslanguse all, siis võib sektorist leida juba üsna ahvatleva hinnatasemega ettevõtteid. Allied Waste'i (AW) olen kaalunud ka Pro all soovitamiseks, kuid õhus oleva maksuvaidluse tõttu jäi idee ootele. Lisaks kauplevad aktsiad konkurentide suhtes allahindlusega, kuna ettevõttel on suur võlakoormus. Samal ajal on vaba rahavoog aastas üle $400 miljoni, seda kasutatakse võlgade maksmiseks ning järgmine suurem võlakirjade tähtaja lõppemine saabub aastal 2010.

    Ettevõtte põhiliseks konkurenstieeliseks on 161 omatavat prügilat, ühtlasi on uute autote najal toodud autopargi keskmine vanus 7.5 aasta peale, mis tähendab väiksemaid ülalpidamiskulusid.

    Põhjus, miks AW taas silma jäi, oli üks SeekingAlphas ilmunud kirjutis. Sealt ka kokkuvõte valuatsiooni kohta:

    From a valuation standpoint, AW is a bargain relative to its peers. Allied shares are currently trading at around 1.2 times its book value of $8.97 per share. That’s a 65% discount to its closest competitors. AW trades at .64 times its sales, while the likes of Republic Services (RSG), Waste Connections (WCN), Waste Management (WMI) and Waste Industries USA (WWIN), Allied’s 4 main competitors) trade at 1.7x, 2.19x, 1.26x and 1.5 x respectively. 

  • Oleme sügisesse jõudnud. Kes mäletab, mis suvel juhtus?
  • Parandasin ära, vist ei ole veel september.
  • WSJ-s on tabelina välja toodud aktsiad, mida hinnataseme ja kasvuvõimaluste tõttu peetakse sobivateks ostukandidaatideks:


  • Ja teine tabel Barronsist, kus viidatakse sellele, et aasta teise poole kasumikasvu prognoosid võivad olla liialt optimistlikud. Välja on toodud konsensuse ootused erinevate sektorite kaupa:

    S&P 500 ootused

  • Tunni eest teatas oma majandustulemused Lennar (LEN):

    Lennar beats by $0.51, misses on revs (17.59 ) : Reports Q1 (Feb) loss of $0.56 per share, includes a $0.38 per share charge related to valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre-acquisition costs, $0.51 better than the First Call consensus of ($1.07); revenues fell 61.9% year/year to $1.06 bln vs the $1.13 bln consensus. Co reports new orders of 3,045 homes, a decrease of 57%. Backlog was $1.2 bln, a decrease of 67%.

    Kopeerin ka paar pikemat lõiku CEO Milleri sõnavõtust:

    "Home inventories have been expanding due to the high number of foreclosures, negotiated 'short sales,' and stretched homeowners looking to sell homes they can no longer afford. While sales are occurring and clearing prices are being reached, the pace of overall housing inventory growth is exceeding absorption at the current time."

    "On a more optimistic note, numerous initiatives, both private and public, have been designed and proposed to move towards stabilization and resolution. There is a growing consensus that the deterioration of the housing market has likely led us into recession, and the stabilization and recovery of the housing market will likely lead us out. Accordingly, we expect that some of these initiatives and the many that are being discussed will lead to a bottom and recovery."

    "As we look ahead to the remainder of 2008, we recognize that market conditions are likely to remain challenging in the near term. Accordingly, we will continue to work diligently on rebuilding margins and ultimately, profitability as well. With a longer-term perspective, we believe that government action and normal market clearing will work together to lead the housing market to stabilization and ultimately recovery."

  • Google(GOOG) sai järjekordse hinnasihi kärpe Lehman Brothersi poolt, uueks sihiks $580. Kärbiti ka 1 kvartali ootusi, mille peamiseks põhjuseks üleüldine majanduskliima jahenemine.
  • American Express ostab GE krediitkaardiüksuse $1.1 miljardi eest.
  • Final Q4 GDP 0.6% vs 0.6% consensus
    Final Q4 Personal Consumption 2.3% vs 1.9% consensus
    Final Q4 core PCE q/q 2.5% vs 2.7% consensus
    Final Q4 GDP Price Index (Chain Deflator) 2.4% vs 2.7% consensus
    Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 366K vs 371K consensus; prior 375K
  • final GDP põhjal siis tarbija tugevam ja inflatsioon madalam varem raporteeritust
  • GDP 4 kvartali kasv 0.6%, mis on 2002 aasta tasemel, seega 5 aasta madalaim.
  • Henno: tüübid üritavad numbreid mudides kinnistada jälle tekkinud eksiarvamust, et elu on lill vms?
  • Saksamaa DAX +1.68%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.41%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.19%

    Hispaania IBEX +1.26%

    Venemaa MICEX +2.43%

    Poola WIG +1.41%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.80%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.21%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -5.43%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.26%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.20%

    Tai Set +0.67%

    India Sensex -0.44%

  • Mortgage Activity Spikes Higher

    By Tony Crescenzi
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/26/2008 3:01 PM EDT

    Thanks to a decline in mortgage rates, mortgage applications for home purchases and refinancing increased last week. You can understand the spike in re-fi's. Simply put, lower mortgage rates create an economic decision bearing little or no risk when acted upon.

    But the decision to buy is more complex. All of the risks of making such a new large financial commitment are in place. Moreover, interpreting trends in filings for purchase applications has become difficult owing to uncertainties surrounding whether requests for mortgages will be approved.

    In the week ended March 21st, the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) index on mortgage applications for home purchases increased to 403.70 from 365.00 the previous week, a 6-week high. The increase coincided with a sharp increase in filings for refinancing applications, as indicated by the MBA's refinancing index, which increased to 4,255 from 2,335 the previous week, also a 6-week high.

    The purchase index remained below the 1-year average of 420.10 but the average is inflated by the fact that a greater number of prospective home owners last summer began to shift their filing of mortgage applications toward traditional entities from mortgage brokers and non-bank entities, which are not included in the MBA data.

    In addition, the index was inflated by a surge in double-filings, with prospective buyers just getting wind of the difficulties they faced in obtaining a mortgage. Now that much of these effects have worked their way into the data, apples-to-apples comparisons are becoming possible.

    This means that the historically tight correlation between the MBA's purchase index and actual purchase activity could return.

    As for refinancings, the 1-year average is 2,350, so the current level clearly indicates that there has been a surge in activity. A mortgage rate of about 5.70% is low enough to sustain a fairly large wave of refinancing activity, as it provides sufficient incentive for the large amount of homeowners that currently have mortgages around 6.125%, which is roughly the average paid by borrowers with conforming mortgages (mortgages $417k and under).

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOLF +10.2%, CTRN +9.4%, CAG +8.8%, SATC +7.6%, WTSLA +4.6%, JST +4.4%, SY +3.5%, CHU +2.7%... M&A news: PEAK +23.8% (to be acquired by S&G Company for $2/share in cash)... Select European financial names trading higher following strength in overseas trading: UBS +4.6%, BCS +2.3%, HBC +2.4%... Select solar names showing strength: ASTIZ +22.0%, ASTI +17.9% (Hydro increases stake to 35% in Ascent Solar), CSUN +4.2% (ests raised at Jefferies), ESLR +3.0%, EMKR +2.9%, TSL +2.4%, JASO +2.2%, STP +2.1%, CSIQ +2.0%, YGE +1.4%, FSLR +1.3%, LDK +1.1%... Other news: MF +16.5% (enhances its agreement with Man Group; the new arrangement will ultimately remove the need for MF to allocate up to $800 mln of its existing liquidity), CCU +12.6% (says wins ruling on $20 bln buyout - Reuters; Bain Cap, Lee Partners file suit vs banks on CCU deal - WSJ), PRXI +10.8% (discloses court ruling), LMC +5.1% (still checking), STAN +4.6% (contract awards for Yankee Stadium, Washington Square office complex, Columbus City Center), NED +3.7% (announces that its board has authorized a program to repurchase Noah ADSs), AAUK +3.2% (reportedly isn't interested in merger with Xstrata-FT), SSL +3.2% (still checking), RMBS +2.9% (confirms that the co wins coordinated trial against Memory Manufacturers; RMBS was awarded $133.6 mln in damages), RTP +2.8% (seek talks with Chinalco on Rio Tinto stake - Bloomberg.com), CHL +2.7% (still checking), MU +2.7% (RMBS was awarded $133.6 mln in damages in case against Micron and others), BHP +2.6% (seek talks with Chinalco on Rio Tinto stake - Bloomberg.com), TSO +2.3% (up in sympathy with VLO upgrade), MICC +2.1% (still checking), BPFH +1.6% (repurchased $107.5 mln of its outstanding 3.00% Contingent Convertible Senior Notes due 2027)... Analyst upgrades: COMS +4.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein), VLO +2.9% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), OMRI +2.6% (initiated with Buy at UBS), CN +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Merrill), CRK +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James), KLAC +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Friedman Billings).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: HURN -31.7%, CKR -9.8%, RBN -9.8%, DSW -8.8%, ORCL -7.0% (also downgraded to Hold at Cross Research), WSM -5.6%, SORL -4.1%, SSTI -3.4%, TUNE -2.0%... Select agriculture names showing weakness following big increase in margin requirements on corn and soybeans futures: COIN -5.7%, TNH -3.6%, MOS -3.1%, MON -2.4%, CF -2.3%, TRA -1.9%, AGU -1.6%, POT -1.3%... Other news: SGXP -21.3% (provides an update today on the SGX523 clinical program), FMD -11.5% (tgt cut to $6.50 at FBR following ratings downgrade for TERI, FMD Trusts; Moody's downgrades First Marblehead student loan notes), PWAV -5.5% (still checking), SAP -5.1% (down in sympathy with ORCL earnings), GOOG -3.1% (February Paid Clicks Lousy (Again) -- Henry Blodget on Silicon Alley Insider), BIDU -2.7% (down in sympathy with GOOG), CHK -1.8% (announces it will commence a 20 mln share common stock offering, pursuant to an effective shelf registration), NS -1.6% (announces public offering of common units, plans to sell 4 mln common units pursuant to an effective shelf registration statement previously filed)... Analyst downgrades: ARUN -6.9% (downgraded to Sell at tier 1 firm), BLK -3.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), AUY -2.9% (downgraded to Sector Perform at CIBC).
  • Punk Ziegel jälle agressiivselt finantssektori kallal downgradedes Merrill Lynchi, langetades hinnasihti $54.50-lt $48.50 peale ning Bank of NY $56-lt $49.50 peale.
  • Henno:
    The U.S. economy downshifted abruptly in the fourth quarter, growing at a 0.6% annual rate, the slowest pace since late 2002, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday.
  • Mitu päeva turge ülespoole vedanud tehnoloogiasektor viib täna turge langusesse eesotsas Oracle (ORCL) ja Googlega (GOOG).
  • Investeerimispangad on päris kiiresti ära vajunud: LEH -8%, MER -4%, MS -4%, GS -2%. Konkreetset uudist hetkel ei paista peale LEH kohta ringleva kuulujutu, mis eriti suurt tähtsust siiski ei peaks omama:

    Briefing: Lehman Brothers follow-up: One thing we're hearing is that one online broker has taken LEH and WM off margin, meaning online traders have to pay cash for entire positions
  • Lisaks: A couple of things out there now: Getting feedback that someone just entered into a very large LEH put spread of about 10,000 contracts: July 40's bought & July 17.5's sold.
  • Lehman Brothers(LEH) kohta käivate kuulujuttude peale väljas ettevõttelt järgmised kommentaarid:
  • Toll Brothers(TOL): Moody's onToll Brothers reitingut üle vaatamas ning prognoosib võimalikku downgrade
  • Tänasest solar sektori rallist on kõrvale jäänud polürani tootja MEMC Electronic Materials (WRF), kelle aktsia hind on langenud 6%. Põhjus peitub selles, et täna teatas maailma suurim päikesepaneelide Q-Cells AG lepingu sõlmimisest Becancour Silicon'iga, kes hakkab koheselt tarnima metallurgical grade räni (MG Si). Tegemist on polüräniga konkureeriva toorainega, mis hetkel moodustab päikesepaneelide tootmises marginaalse osa, ja selle populaarsuse suurenemine oleks halvaks uudiseks WFR'ile.

    Piper Jaffray tuli aktsiat enne kella 18:00 meie aja järgi kaitsma ja nüüdseks on aktsia kosunud põhjadest ligi $3, vähendades langust 10%-lt 6%-ni.
  • Pullidel jätkub optimismi ja minnakse suhteliselt tugevalt ülespoole, tõusule veab turge finantssektor aga päev veel poisike.
  • Tehnoloogiasektor veab siiski turud langusesse.
  • Kas on õige, et BAC maksis 1. kvartali dividendid 5. märtsil? Yahoo! aga pakub hommset kuupäeva?

    Läksin BAC-is lühikeseks ja see tähendab, et pean laenatud aktsiatelt dividende maksma. Kuidas selline protseduur Traderi süsteemis üldse toimub?
  • Dividendi väljamaksmise kuupäeval võetakse su kontolt vastav summa ning kantakse sellele, kellelt aktsiad laenasid
  • Täna oli BAC dividendi nimekirja pääsemise viimane kuupäev, väljamaksmine 30.04. Seega kui järelturul positsiooni kinni paned pääsed dividendijamast.
  • Eelnevad kuupäevad käivad siiski eelisaktsiate kohta, tavaaktsia puhul oli ex-date 5.03 ja pay-date on homme siiski. Sry!
  • ZWEN
    BAC Ex-Dividend Date oli Mar 05, 2008, kui sa olid 4 märtsil lühike siis pead maksma, see dividendide arvestus käib ikka Ex-Dividend Date järgi. Homme laekuvad sealt dividendid reaalselt.
  • Bear Stearns'i (BSC) CEO on 25. märtsil müünud kõik oma aktsiad: Bear Stearns Chairman James Cayne discloses sale of 5.66 mln shares at $10.84 on 3/25.

  • Siis mul vedas, et ei jõudnud positsooni veel sulgeda :)
  • Jah, aktsia järelturul $10.55 ehk -5%, sest CEO aktsiate müük võib viidata sellele, et ta on kaotanud usu kõrgema hinnaga pakkumisse.
  • Oppenheimeri analüütik Meredith Whitney lammutab CNBC-s :)

    Oppenheimer analyst Meredith Whitney on CNBC says Q1 earnings will put even further pressure on financials' capital ratios.
    Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says she has cut ests on financials 30 times since Nov, and has no confidence that her estimate revisions are near an end.
    Merrill Lynch: Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC says MER will trade down to $30 by her estimates.
    Citigroup: Oppenheimer analyst Whitney on CNBC thinks C has to wipe out their dividend; says we'll see dozens of dividend cuts in the next few weeks.

    Eilses börsipäeva foorumis kirjutas Joel samal teemal järgnevat:

    "Meredith Whitney Oppenheimerist, kes on Citigroupi (C) osas ikka väga karuselt olnud meelestatud, on täna oma prognoose langetamas. 2008. aastalt ootab ta nüüd EPSi -0.15, varasema +0.75 asemel. 1. kvartalilt prognoosib Whitney, et näeme Citit maha kirjutamas gigantse $13.1 miljardilise summa. Võrdluseks siia, et tänane turu konsensusootus 2008. aastalt on Citile EPSi osas +$1.94."

Teemade nimekirja