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Börsipäev 2. aprill

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  • IMF kärbib USA käesoleva aasta majandusprognoosi varasema 1.5% pealt 0.5%-ni, mis peaks viitama ka mõnele negatiivsele kvartalile. Olulist paranemist ei oodata ka järgmisest aastast, kus kasv peaks IMFi hinnangutel jääma 0.6% juurde.
  • Täna peale turge teatab oma kvartalitulemused RIMM, EPSi oodatakse $0.74. Ettevõte on enne tulemusi saanud mitu kiitvat hinnangut ning kasumiprognooside ja hinnasihtide tõstmist:

    Canaccord raising ests on RIMM following positive channel checks : Canaccord says they have conducted additional channel checks with N. American and European carriers pre RIMM's Q4 earnings release on Wed after market close. Net/net, firm believes RIMM's Q4 results will be on the higher end to above guidance and Q1 is tracking ahead of consensus.

    UBS expects results to come at least at the high end of the guidance range given the strong net sub adds, which they believe benefited from operator promotional activity and RIMM's international expansion. The firm expects upside to Street estimates based on strong initial order volumes for the CDMA Curve (higher ASP BlackBerry), continued strength internationally, and further promotional activity.

    RBC raises their tgt on RIMM to $150 from $140 saying they expect Q4 inline with street and guidance.  The firm says global checks indicate strong Q1 momentum, suggesting guidance for $2.1-2.2 bln revenue and $0.81-0.86 EPS, above street at $1.98 bln and $0.74 EPS.

  • kuku uudistelugeja ütles just, et CAC jaa DAX on täna tõusnud vastavalt 9 ja 19 PROTSENTI. jeee
  • Best Buy (BBY) tulemused esmapilgul päris head:

    BBY prelim $1.71 vs $1.65 First Call consensus; revs $13.42 bln vs $13.19 bln First Call consensus
    BBY sees FY09 $3.25-3.40 vs $3.31 First Call consensus
    BBY sees FY09 revs of $43-44 bln vs $43.02 bln First Call consensus
  • March ADP Employment Report 8K vs -45K consensus, prior month -23K
  • ADP Employment Report põhjal reedel laekuva Nonfarm Payrolls ennustamine on mitmel korral alt vedanud, kuid turg rallib sellest hoolimata ... vaadates uudistele reageerimist on lühiajaline muutus sentimendis kindlasti toimunud, aga hoiduksin liigsest optimismist :)
  • BBY on eelturul tänu tugevatele tulemustele +7%. Samuti kaupleb konkurent Circuit City (CC) sümpaatiast 4% võrra kõrgemal. Jaemüüjatest saab veel positiivsete uudiste osaliseks Wal-Mart (WMT), kelle kasumiootusi ja hinnasihti on kergitatud Lehmani poolt:

    Lehman is increasing their 2008 and 2009 EPS ests to $3.40 (consensus $3.40) and $3.80 (consensus $3.76) from $3.35 and $3.75, respectively, and their price target to $65 from $55 to reflect two main catalysts: a near term improvement in apparel comps and a longer term steady increase in free cash flow levels.
  • Sentimendi muutusest veel üks väljavõte mingist artiklist:

    In the grand scheme of things, what transpired in the financial sector yesterday wasn't so much a function of something truly positive as it was an elimination of something truly negative. The capital raising efforts helped squelch liquidity concerns, which were truly a negative as far as sentiment is concerned. However, it's one thing to raise capital to be able to withstand future storms and quite another to raise new capital to deploy for growth initiatives. The financial sector is still in a mode of weathering storms. We've been down this road before in thinking the financial sector is at a bottom, only to get lost in another wave of write-downs, so we won't be so bold as to suggest the bottom is in for the financial sector.

  • Saksamaa DAX +0.90%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.79%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.67%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.82%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.82%

    Poola WIG +0.76%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +4.21%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.18%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.58%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.65%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.69%

    Tai Set +0.29%

    India Sensex -0.79%

  • Yesterday's Action Was the Best of the Year

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/2/2008 8:41 AM EDT

    Things will get better -- despite our efforts to improve them.
    -- Will Rogers

    The action yesterday was the best the market has seen so far in 2008. We have had some other big up days this year, but the action yesterday built on recent bases and took the indices past some important technical levels. The major indices actually have the conditions in place to continue to push higher, especially given that doubt and skepticism remain quite high and many investors are not well positioned for a rally.

    The big problem for the market is that the logic for a better market at this point is pretty shaky. The main drivers yesterday were a large writeoff by UBS (UBS), which many hoped marked the worst of the debt issues, and the ability of Lehman (LEH) to raise some capital, which will keep it from being another Bear Stearns (BSC).

    While there certainly was some positive news, it takes a real leap of faith to believe that we are now out of the woods. The issues that are plaguing us in housing and a slowing economy are still far from resolved, and the inclination of many market players to constantly proclaiming that the lows are in is an invitation for more struggles.

    The key for the market at this point is to prove it has the strength of character to follow through or at least hold up fairly well. So far this year, all of our major rallies have fizzled quite quickly, and that has led to new levels of disappointment and gloom. What we need here isn't sudden belief that our ills are over, but the ability to climb the proverbial Wall of Worry as we grapple with the issues that are still out there.

    Earnings season will be the key in determining the course of the market over the next few weeks. It is all about expectations, and the good news is that expectations are probably quite low. We could get in trouble if market players suddenly start becoming much more optimistic right away, but there will probably be some reports from companies that have not been affected by many of the debt issues that are plaguing financials.

    My goal at this point is to look for charts that have bases in place and are showing signs of starting to uptrend. There still aren't many out there, but this action will start to produce some if it holds.

    We have a mild start to the day, and the mood continues to stay upbeat so far. We'll see what happens when a little profit-taking kicks in. If the dip-buyers are active, that will bode very well.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BBY +6.7%, BLUD +5.9%, EXFO +4.9%, KMX +3.1%... Solar stocks showing strength with select co specific news out: CSUN +4.1%, TSL +3.8% (announced that the co has signed a long-term polysilicon supply agreement with a subsidiary of GCL Silicon Technology Holdings), EMKR +3.2%, SOLF +2.8%, EMKR +1.9% (receives $4.6 mln follow-on order for concentrator solar cell receiver assemblies from Concentration Solar la Mancha), STP +1.6% (to supply 4MW of modules to 'leading' Italian PV system developer Enerray), ESLR +1.0%... Select gold stocks showing strength with higher spot prices: GOLD +4.4%, IAG +4.3%, AU +1.7%, ABX +1.4%, GLD +1.3%, GFI +1.1%... Other news: TKO +19.8% (awarded exclusive 2-yr contract for hospitality energy efficiency program), SVA +14.9% (receives China State Food and Drug Administration approval for pandemic influenza H5N1 vaccine), CPST +7.0% (receives HEV bus order for $5 mln from DesignLine International), NCC +5.6% (in talks with KeyCorp - WSJ), CC +3.6% (up in sympathy with BBY), KKD +3.2% (seeks amendments to credit facilities), AMAT +2.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), FIC +2.2% (announces reengineering plan; expects to reduce cost structure by $100 mln, yield annual pre-tax savings of $35 mln and a Q2 charge of $7 mln), NOK +2.1% (still checking), CVTX +2.1% (announces Ranexa significantly reduces cardiac chest pain symptoms and recurrent ischemia in merlin-timi 36 patients with angina), BCE +2.0% (BCE deal will proceed as planned, adviser says - Globe and Mail), AER +2.0% (announced its subsidiary AeroTurbine entered into a ten year component lease agreement signed between British Airways and AeroTurbine), SIRT +1.8% (receives orphan drug designation from FDA for Resveratrol in Mitochondrial Disorder, MELAS syndrome), STM +1.5% (announces its Board has authorized the co repurchase up to 30 mln common shares), NBR +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: VRUS +6.1% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), VIP +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at tier 1 firm), HRS +1.3% (initiated with Buy at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance/same store sales: DEEP -35.9% (co delays Q4 results; says if co is unable to obtain adequate additional or alternate financing, KPMG would be required to include going concern statement in financial statements), LOJN -22.4%, CHRD -16.0%, ONT -9.7%, LULU -6.2%, PAY -4.9%, BOBE -4.1%, CYTR -3.4%, LORL -2.7%, MON -1.4%, ATG -1.2%... Other news: PFB -23.3% (announces sale of DBS loans and preliminary credit-related information for Q4), ISTA -15.5% (announces results of clinical trial of Xibrom QD formulation; showed no statistically significant difference between the two formulations in achieving the secondary efficacy endpoints; also engages Cowen as Financial Advisor; co reaffirms FY08 rev guidance of $75-82 mln vs. $79.9 mln consensus), MEDX -15.5% (Pfizer announces discontinuation of Phase III clinical trial for patients with advanced melanoma, MEDX is PFE's partner for Tremelimumab), HNSN -4.1% (prices a 3 mln share common stock offering), NLY -2.3% (still checking), MOS -2.2% (down in sympathy with MON), AVY -1.4% (acquires DM Label Group), PFE -1.2% (announces discontinuation of Phase III clinical trial for patients with advanced melanoma)... Analyst downgrades: SCBT -7.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at FTN Midwest), RAMR -6.8% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA), IRC -4.6% (downgraded to Underperform at Wachovia), CROX -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), EXPD -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS).
  • Bernanke says that Bear Stearns told the Fed it would file Chapter 11-tekitab turgudel segadust.
  • Bernanke says economy may contract slightly in first half
    Bernanke says Fed monitoring primary dealers with SEC
    Bernanke says further homebuildiong drop in 'coming quarters'
    Bernanke says growth prospects abroad 'diminished somewhat'
    Bernanke says inflation a concern, expected to 'moderate'
    Bernanke says credit markets still under 'considerable stress'
    Bernanke says Fed, Fiscal actions may spur growth rate in 2009
  • Dick Arms RealMoney'st usub lyhiperioodi trendi jatkumisse ja soovitab veel pikk olla.

    The upward move on Tuesday was extremely impressive. The small flag we saw at the end of last week was decisively penetrated. Flags are not only a reliable pattern on the breakout, but they serve as a measuring tool. The first leg of the formation, the flagpole, is usually seen as a halfway point for the full advance. That implies that this move, which started Tuesday, is likely to take the Dow to around the 13,400-13,600 area
  • qqq put 44 38ga, loodame, et ei vea alt, kaua võib tõusta
  • Lühike kokkuvõte BBY konverentsikõnest:

    Co generally expects back half of FY09 to be better than the first half... For FY08 Customer satisfaction was up 2 points yr/yr... market share up 1 point to 21%... Plans for this coming year include a step-up in international spending... Co believes that 7% EPS growth outlook does not reflect the co's full potential... Says they absolutely did not set guidance too high... Co is confident they will achieve a higher level of growth in either the macro or the product cycle would indicate. For International co believes international profit growth to be constrained somewhat by investments for growth in three countries, China, Turkey, and Mexico.

  • Crocs (CROX) on hommikuse JPMi reitingualanduse peale juba ca 9% miinuses. JPM langetas soovituse neutraalse peale ning viitas, et peale neljanda kvartali tulemusi antud Q1 guidance võis olla liiga optimistlik. Igal juhul on ootused juba praegu väga madalad, 2008. aasta hinna ja konsensuse kasumi suhe on alla 6. Kui konsensuse ootustele jäädaks alla 20%, oleks FY08 P/E 7.
    Praeguseks on juba 37% aktsiatest shorditud. Crocs avaldab Q1 tulemused 1. mail.
  • RIMM prelim $0.72 vs $0.70 First Call consensus; revs $1.88 bln vs $1.86 bln First Call consensus.

    RIMM sees Q1 $0.82-0.86 vs $0.76 First Call consensus; sees revs $2.23-2.30 bln vs $2.02 bln First Call consensus.

    Nagu juba tavaks, suudeti analüütikute ootusi kerge varuga ületada. Net sub additions'ilt oodatakse Q1 2.2 mln vs konsensuse 2.16 mln. Kuigi mitteametlikes prognoosides oldi kõige sellega juba arvestatud, on tulemused ning eriti prognoosid praeguses majanduskeskkonnas head ning aktsia tugeva guidance'i peale ligi 2% plussis.

  • LDK Solar signs a ten-year wafer supply agreement with Moser Baer Photo Voltaic.

    Aktsia regulaarse kauplemisaja +9% pealt järelturul +16%-ni.
  • SIGM on tagasi ostnud ca 3.8 miljonit aktsiat, keskmise hinnaga $21.01 (kokku $80.6M).

    As of April 2, 2008, we had purchased a cumulative total of approximately 3.8 million shares of our common stock pursuant to the repurchase program for an aggregate purchase price of $80.6 million at an average price of $21.01 per share.
  • kumb oli kiirem ?;)

    palju õnne Sigma pikad, eps tõusis just 15%

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