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Börsipäev 10. aprill

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  • Täna kell 14:00 on BOE intressiotsus. Konsnensus -25 bps cut
    Täna kell 14:45 on ECB intressiotsus. Konsensus no change.

    Intressiotsusele järgneval pressikonverentsil tõenäoliselt Trichet räägib palju inflatsiooniga võitlemisest. Inflatsiooniga võitlemise retoorika osakaal ja intensiivsus määravad EURUSD ja EURIBORi futuuride liikumise ja reaktsiooni. Üldiselt ECB on päris kindlalt see aasta jäänud oma seisukohale kindlaks et infaltsioon on probleem ja majanduslangust on põgusalt ja kohati mainitud. Pigem on ECB viimasel ajal isegi suuremat infaltsioon-on-suurim-oht retoorika kindlust näidanud ja intressilangetuse tõenäosus on isegi vähenenud. Minu arvamus on see et kui ECB jätkab karmi inflatsioonivõitluse retoorikat, siis varsti võib tulla vaatamata vihjetele surutises olevast EZ majandusest ka intressitõus. EZ nõrk majandusaktiivsus ei ole uus muutuja süsteemis seega see ei ole kõige akuutsem probleem. Inflatsioon on vägagi uus probleem. CPI numbrid üle EZ on lähiajaloo tippude juures. Huvitav on ka see et kui võrrelda mõningaid USA ja EZ numbreid, siis EZ numbrid on jäänud tugevamaks ja USA omad kukkunud kiiremini (tarbijausaldus, jaetarbimine, kestvuskaubad jne). Hea näide sellest et ECB ei pea vähemalt hetkel veel esimese probleemina kasvu pärast muretsema. Hiljem tuleb mure kasvu pärast kindlasti sisse. Suurimad probleemid intressi tõstmise ees on USA jahenemine mis ei jäta oma mõju Euroopale avaldamata ja LIBORite kangekaelne ärritus ehk pangkadevahelise turul on ebausk ja LIBORid on uuesti tõusnud.

    Ma tahaks näha ECB poolt intressitõusu, aga seda ei juhtu.
  • Eilsest õhtust alates on jaemüüjad hakanud avaldama "same store sales" müüginumbreid, mis mõjutavad kindlasti turusuunda. Täna 5 nädala tulemused avaldanud Costco teatas müüginumbrite +7% kasvust vs analüütikute oodatud +5.5%, tegemist ei ole siiski kõige arvestatavama kaupluseketiga.
  • Citigroup analüütik Sherief Bakr on kärpinud Nokia 2008 ja 2009 prognoose nõrga usd ja euroopa majanduskliima jahenemise tõttu, hinnasihti langetati 32 eur pealt 28 eur peale.
  • BOE alandas -25 bps. Inline. 45 min pärast ECB, ootus 0 bps muutust. BOE pressikas: Bank of England Reduces Bank Rate by 0.25 Percentage Points to 5.0%
  • Mida Soros teab ahhh? küsige parem Soomannilt ja Ansipilt!
  • USD ei reageerigi eriti ECB otsuse peale. Ilmselt oli intresside samaks jätmine turu jaoks väga ootuspärane.
  • Mida lähemale jõuab juunikuu ehk iPhone'i ühe küünlaga sünnipäev, seda enam spekuleeritakse uue telefoni üle:

    TGDaily has it from "industry sources" that the 3G iPhone will indeed be debuted at WWDC and will be offered in 8GB ($399), 16GB ($499) and possibly a monster 32GB ($599) variant. The launch of 8GB and 16GB 3G iPhones is quite solid, however, the 32GB 3G iPhone is an unconfirmed rumor. Apple is apparently going to shave an impressive 2.5mm off the current iPhone's case thickness, giving the 3G iPhone a slim-advantage (literally) over the current iPhone. The casing material will also be revised, resulting in a more "high-end" and less "plasticy" feel. Unfortunately, the battery will remain a sealed unit and there will be no major revisions to the iPhone UI. 

  • Note: jaapanis töötab ainult 3G, seega poleks paha, kui see 3G-slim- 32GB välja tuleb, mina küll usun, et Jaapanis läheks väga hästi kaubaks!
  • good news and bad news

    08:30 Initial Claims 357K vs 383K consensus, prior revised to 410K from 407K
    08:30 February Trade Balance -$62.3 bln vs -$57.5 bln consensus, prior revised to -$59.0 bln from -$58.2 bln

  • Saksamaa DAX -1.31%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.17%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.30%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.74%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.21%

    Poola WIG -0.94%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.27%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.84%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.70%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.82%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.13%

    Tai Set -0.66%

    India Sensex -0.60%

  • Market Players Are Bad Prognosticators

    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/10/2008 8:33 AM EDT

    A man's delight in looking forward to and hoping for some particular satisfaction is a part of the pleasure flowing out of it, enjoyed in advance. But this is afterward deducted, for the more we look forward to anything the less we enjoy it when it comes.
    -- Arthur Schopenhauer

    The market started off the second quarter of 2008 with some increased optimism. Investors were well aware of the many problems that the economy and market were facing, but they were starting to look past the immediate issues and anticipate better days down the road.

    That gave us a good start in April, but the positive anticipation has started to decay in the last few days. Market players are now beginning to feel less certain that we have fully priced in all the problems that are still brewing out there.

    It is well known that the market is a discounting mechanism that prices in anticipated future events. Because of this, we can expect the market to start acting better before actual positive events occur.

    The problem is that market players are often quite bad at anticipating the future. They become too optimistic too soon, and when they discover they have been overly aggressive at anticipating the end of our problems, the market suffers more downside.

    That is the problem we are facing now. There has been some increased hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel. Although there are still many problems to be confronted, the market has been acting like it has addressed some of them and is ready to start anticipating better days.

    This increased optimism is now starting to look misplaced. The buyers could never generate the sort of volume that indicated that they really were embracing the idea that it was time to buy, and the lack of good news eventually pushed the dip-buyers back to the sidelines.

    The major indices are still trying to hold above key support, but sentiment is deteriorating, and the hope that we have priced in the worst is beginning to look like wishful thinking rather than an accurate discounting of events.

    While it is still possible that the market has priced in all the bad news and will start to rally once again, the action the last few days is calling that idea into question. If the market rights itself and holds above the lows of April 1, we can once again be a bit more aggressive with our buying, but for now a return to caution is warranted.

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance/same store sales: GPRE +19.2%, APOG +12.8%, FCSX +11.1%, CBK +10.7%, LOOK +9.8%, PIR +8.9%, MW +6.2%, HOTT +4.5%, CHT +2.9%, SMRT +2.4%, CACH +2.3%, LNDC +1.8%, CTR +1.4%, WTSLA +1.2%, IUSA +1.2%, ZUMZ +1.1%... M&A news: MLNM +51.1% (to be acquired by Takeda Pharma for $25/share in all cash tender offer)... Other news: FRPT +8.7% (US DOD approves $125 mln armored truck sale to Britain armored truck sale to Britain - Reuters), ABAT +5.0% (announces $3.3 mln contract with Beijing's Ding Xin Yi Tong Science & Technology), GERN +4.4% (FDA hearings on stem-cell drugs - WSJ), AMGN +4.0% (Roche filed on Wednesday to appeal a preliminary court injunction barring U.S. sales of its anemia drug Mircera -- analysts believe the Appeals court will be less likely to allow Roche to launch under a license agreement; also the action date for FDA's priority review of romiplostim has been extended to July 23, 2008), FRO +3.9% (still checking), NKTR +3.7% (announces that "positive preclinical and clinical results" for its pipeline programs will be presented at numerous medical and scientific meetings over the coming months), TX +3.7% (comments on recent developments in Venezuela), CPST +3.7% (announces that it has received an order valued at $2.03 mln from Samsung C&T), HOKU +2.9% (subsidiary Hoku Materials announces amendments to polysilicon plant engineering and construction contracts).
  • Finantssektor vs tehnoloogia, üks mürk kõik.
  • leid, mitte just kõik analüütikud pole optimistlikult meelestatud iPhone'i edus Jaapani turul. Paar kuud tagasi oli Newsweekis artikkel sel teemal. Jaapani mobiiliturg on üsna erinev teistest arenenud turgudest ning muudel turgudel edukas olemine ei garanteeri seal edu. Kui võtta arvesse, et Apple pole Euroopaski suutnud oma iPhone'iga erilist imet näidata, siis on veelgi raskem uskuda suurde edusse Jaapanis. Aeg ka tiksub Apple'i kahjuks.

    Newsweek: Will Japan Buy the iPhone?

    The longer it takes for Apple to launch in Japan, some analysts say, the more challenging the battleground will become. Over the past year, Japanese handset makers have been introducing models that not only have more enhanced functions but also have sleeker and more sophisticated designs. "Timing counts," says Michito Kimura, an industry analyst at IDC Japan.

    Aside from handsets, new services may make Japanese consumers reluctant to drop their old phones for an iPhone. Just about all Japanese handsets are equipped to be used as mobile wallets, which serve as debit and credit cards and train passes, and to receive live digital television broadcasts. Demand for these services has surged in recent months, but the iPhone as we know it today doesn't have the electronics needed to serve as a mobile wallet or a television. "Lack of wallet phone function is the biggest weak point for iPhone in its current form," says Hiroshi Ogawa, CEO of Modiphi, an Internet service consultancy. Having to choose between an iPhone or a mobile wallet would be excruciating for consumers, he says.

    By releasing the iPod touch last year in Japan, Apple may have created its own competition with the iPhone. (In the United States the two devices were unveiled simultaneously.) Many people already own both a Japanese Internet-savvy multifunctional handset and the iPod touch, which has the display and some of the software of the iPhone. Could they be tempted to replace the two handsets with an iPhone? Or carry three devices?
  • Ma usun samuti, et Jaapanis läheb iPhone'l raskeks, sest jaapanlasest tarbija on nõudlik ja harjunud tipptehnoloogiliste mudelitega. Kohalikust mobiiliturust rääkides meenub Tero Kuittineni artikkel, kus ta rõhutas, et Jaapan on võrreldes muu maailmaga hoopis teises kategoorias. Näiteks olid 2007. a Q4-s müüdud mobiiltelefonidest pooled varustatud TV vastuvõtjaga ja mõnedel mudelitel olid isegi OLED ekraanid. Lisaks saavutas mobiiltelefonides kuvatavate reklaamide turg Jaapanis 2007. a $500 mln taseme, samal ajal kui mõned Lääne operaatorid alles alustavad teenuse testperioodidega jne.
  • fun: timing is evertything. always...
    mind paneb hämmastama selle NW commenti see osa, mis puudutab wallet func puudumist. ma ei usu, et sama fakt pole teada õunamajas, kui nad kavatsevad sinna turule minna (eeldatavasti taas koos mingi operaatoriga) - siis saab see funktsioon seal ka olema.
    ja samas, ebareaalne on oodata kellegilt telefoni, mis oleks igas asjas kõigist parem, odavam ja moodsam!
    mina usun ikkagi, et sümbioos 3g-32gb-slim müüb iseenesest piisavalt hästi
    ise-asi mida stockmarket asjast arvab, seepärast pole ei long ega short :(
    ja iseäranist hull on lugu siis, kui nokia oma "iphonega" ette jõuab, timing, timing!!
  • Kui olen FMD ärimudelist õigesti aru saanud, siis firma ise ei anna välja ühtegi laenu (ei oma selleks vajalikku kapitali), raha teenitakse laenuandjatele (suur- ja regionaalpankadele) osutatavate teenuste ehk laenude töötlemise ja väärtpaberistamise eest. Nii et tavaline outsourcing või subcontracting a process. Raha teenitakse oma teenuste müügist. Ma saan aru, et nende teenuste vastu on praegu huvi nõrgenenud ja laenude väärtpaberistamine on üldse mõneks ajaks soikunud, kuid kas on ka midagi positiivset (väärtust), mida praegune turg arvesse ei võta?
  • Ja loomulikult FMD-ga seotud selle nädala tähtsaim küsimus, mis moodi mõjutab TERI kui FMD poolt töödeldavate laenude garanteerija pankrott FMD-d? Kas ainult selles osas, et pankade huvi FMD teenuste osas väheneb veelgi?
  • Päris vahva kaart "haamri alla" läinud elamute kohta Denveris


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