Börsipäev 14. aprill - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 14. aprill

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Maailma suurim videolaenutuste kett Blockbuster (BBI) soovib osta elektroonikamüüjat Circuit City't (CC). CC aktsia sulgus reedel $3.90 tasemel, kuid BBI on nõus maksma $6-8 aktsia eest.
  • Enne USA börside avamist, raporteerib Wachovia (WB). Sealt tuleb ilmselt ka suund päeva alguseks.
  • Wachowia (WB) puhul oodatakse ka teadet $7 miljardi lisakapitali kaasamise kohta, mille suhtes nädalavahetusel läbirääkimisi peeti.
  • Seega CC peaks täna tõusma... või ma eksin? olen cc-ga moment -15%
  • CC eelturu noteeringud on näha 5.21/5.69
  • Blockbuster (BBI) omanike ja juhatuse tutvusringkonnal on hõlbus lisakapitali teenida, sest elektroonikamüüjat Circuit City't (CC) vaid SOOVITAKSE osta, mitte ei osteta ;)

    Olge ettevaatlikud.
  • Kas ma saan õigesti aru, et WB tulemused ei ole just väga roosilised.
  • Oleks muidugi üsna omapärane integratsioon Blockbusteri poolt
  • SIGMA DESIGNS kuhjaga uudiseid, tasub silm peal hoida, ilmselt teeb tugeva p6rke.
  • Wachovia (WB) Reports Q1 loss of $0.14 per share, ex items, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of $0.40; revenues rose 5.0% year/year to $7.9 bln vs the $7.98 bln consensus. Co announced plans to raise capital through a public offering of common stock and perpetual convertible preferred stock. Co lowerd its quarterly dividend to $0.375 which preserves $2.0 billion of capital annually, to build capital ratios and provide more operational flexibility.
  • WB tulemused olid kehvad jah, eks selle leevendamiseks ka kapitalikaasamise uudis.
  • Eelturul karistati WB aktsiat -8% langusega
  • Kas CC võttis Blockbuster'i (BBI) pakkumise vastu?
  • Leiko, päris nii kiiresti need asjad ei käi. Ja tegemist pole üldse lõpliku pakkumisega, kuna enne soovitakse veidi informatsiooni saada, mida CC pole aga suutnud pakkuda.
  • Juttude kohaselt on Venemaa suurim telekom MTS (MBT) huvitatud Tadžikistani suurimast mobiilside-operaatorist Babylon-Mobile, millel tänaseks on üle 700000 kliendi. Praegu veel ei teata, kas kõnelusi peetakse täisosaluse või 60% osaluse ostu üle.
  • March Retail Sales +0.2% vs 0.0% consensus, prior month revised to -0.4% from -0.6%
    March Retail Sales ex-auto +0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior revised to -0.1% from -0.2%
  • Tere taas sõbrad! Olen nüüd puhkuselt lõpuks tagasi jõudnud ja saame nüüd sama hea hooga edasi minna. GE nõrgad tulemused on ikka väga suur uudis ja paras pettumus. Barrons on ettevõtet kaitsmas, tuues välja soodsad valuatsioonid (ma küll ütleks pigem, et investeerimiseks mõistlikud tasemed, mitte veel karjuvalt odavad).

    Palju tähtsaid tulemusi lähipäevil tulemas. Intel (INTC) teatab oma numbrid teisipäeval pärast turgu, IBMi numbrid tulevad kolmapäeval pärast turgu ja Google (GOOG) astub investorite ette neljapäevasel järelturul.

    Barron's Online reports the co's earnings shortfall shocked Wall Street, embarrassed the co and hurt the credibility of CEO Jeff Immelt. But it doesn't kill the investment case for the co, whose shares now trade about where they stood a decade ago... GE now trades for a reasonable 14.2 times estimated 2008 profits of $2.25 a share, using the midpoint of the current guidance. It's just 13 times estimated 2009 profits of $2.50 a share. Our 2009 estimate assumes 10% to 11% earnings growth next year, off a base of $2.25. GE has a secure, bond-like dividend yield of 3.9%. General Electric is one of the best plays on the global-infrastructure boom, due to its strength in gas and wind turbines, jet engines and locomotives. Its infrastructure division, which includes these businesses, generated 23% revenue growth and 17% profit growth in the first quarter -- the brightest spot for the company. This division, which accounts for 40% of GE's earnings, experienced 11% order growth in the period... GE's risk/reward ratio looks pretty good. Even if profit guidance for 2008 falls further -- to say, $2 a share -- downside in the stock probably isn't much lower than 28...

  • Deutsche Bank annab Visale (V) osta soovituse ja $75-lise hinnasihi ning ka Cowen on täna Visat (V) Outperformiga esile tõstmas.
  • Pärast retail sales´i intressifutuuurid vähe liikunud. Hetkel implied probability 50/50 -25 ja -50 bps cuti kasuks. See on nüüd puhtalt minu arvamus aga FED ei saa enam palju lõputult intresse langetada. Reaalintresisd lähevad liiga negatiivseks ja infla muutub liiga ebameeldivaks probleemiks tulevikus. Sellele buumile järgenud surutise perioodil ei hoita enam intresse nii kaua madalal.
  • Morgan Stanley WB kohta:

    Second, consensus EPS estimates need to come down about 10% in 2Q08-4Q08 and in 2009. Management is suggesting that the new $0.375 dividend per quarter will put them in their guidance for a cash payout ratio of 40-50%. EPS will need to decline to reflect this outlook. Third, capital needs could rise as neg am loan losses build given housing value deterioration and the economy weakens stressing other parts of Wachovia’s balance sheet.

  • USa on tänast päeva alustamas marginaalse miinusega.

    Saksamaa DAX -0.81%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.27%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.82%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.87%

    Venemaa MICEX -0.65%

    Poola WIG -0.75%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.05%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -3.47%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -5.62%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -5.87%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.66%

    Tai Set N/A (börs suletud)

    India Sensex N/A (börs suletud)

  • Beware the Unknown
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/14/2008 9:09 AM EDT

    As a rule, men worry more about what they can't see than about what they can.
    -- Julius Caesar

    We are kicking off the week under a blanket of worry and gloom. The poor earnings from General Electric (GE) on Friday has drained the market of the nascent hope that maybe the worst has been priced in. The market is now contemplating further problems, such as increased inflationary pressures and banks scrambling to raise capital.

    Many market players were hopeful that the tide had begun to turn with the rally on the first day of April. Momentum trading picked up, we held above key technical levels and there seemed to be some underlying bids and dip-buying action. The poor news from GE undercut that fragile upturn.

    Can the market return to the view that the worst is already being priced in, which would justify slowly starting some accumulation? That seems to always be the view of a certain faction of Wall Street. They will always tell you that weakness is a buying opportunity and that the worst is almost over. They are almost always too early and end up simply fueling more downside when they give up in disgust.

    My style is to always be very slow in embracing the idea that the market has bottomed. I'm much more concerned about being caught in a failed bounce than I am about being left behind when the market really does turn. Good markets give plenty of time to jump in and seek profits. Unfortunately, this one is now proving that it isn't so good and that standing aside is still warranted.

    Although things look awfully gloomy at the moment, the good news is that this increase in negativity as we head into the bulk of earnings season is probably good. Expectations have obviously fallen quickly in the last few days, and that gives us a better chance of seeing some relief-buying if reports aren't absolutely horrible.

    Unfortunately, the report from Wachovia (WB) this morning is supporting the notion that maybe expectations aren't low enough. The big bank is trading down sharply as it lowers earnings and seeks capital.

    With the major indices breaking back below key technical support levels, there is little we can do at this juncture other than stay defensive, be patient and ignore the advice from the usual suspects that we need to be heavily long in order to avoid being left behind in the rally that is sure to occur at any moment.

    With earnings reports on tap, things are going to be trickier than usual, so proceed with caution and protect that valuable capital.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ANTP +32.5%, ETN +5.8%, GWW +4.4%, ALO +1.0%, FII +1.0%... M&A news: CC +55.1% (BBI proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash), CLAY +22.4% (to be acquired by Greenfield Partners for $6.00/share in cash)... Other news: AGIX +41.7% (announces "encouraging interim results" from Phase 3 clinical trial of AGI-1067 in type 2 diabetes), AAI +26.6% (updates financial information in response to Friday's market activity; also upgraded to Add at Calyon), INGN +12.1% (announces that ADVEXIN Ph. III clinical trial data in patients with recurrent head and neck cancer confirm earlier Ph. II results of ADVEXIN efficacy), NTRI +7.5% (will replace FRNT in the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close on 4/15), NWA +5.8% and DAL +5.4% (aims to unveil NWA merger pact), TSL +2.6% (discontinues development of polysilicon production facility), AMR +2.0% (rebounding modestly; announced plan to be back to a full, normal schedule on Sunday), PTEC +1.9% (says profit to grow 'immediately'; purchase will boost profit, to raise forecast April 22- Bloomberg), CETV +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), VLO +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), PRGO +1.2% (announces approval for over-the-counter children's Cetirizine oral solution), REP +1.1% (CNPC interested in Repsol assets - South Morning China Post)... Analyst upgrades: PETM +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at BofA), EV +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: SMG -8.5%, WB -7.9%, CRS -6.9%, ACLS -5.2%, GSIG -3.7%, FFHL -1.9%, PHG -1.5%... M&A news: BBI -10.5% (proposes to acquire Circuit City for at least $6.00/share in cash)... Select finanical stocks showing weakness following WB earnings: RF -3.9%, CS -2.2%, BAC -1.8%, WFC -1.6%, C -1.5%, MER -1.4%... Select Chinese names trading lower following weakness in overseas trading: NINE -5.5%, ACH -5.1%, SNP -3.1%, CAF -2.6%, LFC -2.4%, BIDU -1.1%... Other news: GRO -9.4% (announces that the co has been named as a defendant in a securities class action and intends to vigorously contest and defend allegations), PKX -5.1% (drops over 6% on steel margin concerns - Reuters), HOG -1.5% (Hearing tier-1 firm says U.S. retail trends likely deteriorated in March)... Analyst downgrades: CYMI -6.4% (downgraded to Underperform at Credit Suisse), WEN -2.1% (Hearing reinstated with a Sell at tier 1 firm), FAST -2.0% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Piper).
  • BBI aktsionärid ei tundu erilist sünergiat nägevat, aktsia -10%.
  • Madis, mida teha?... 6 peale see va. CC tagasi ei kisu, kas oleks rumalus praegu aktsiad müüki panna, või..oodata veel pisut?
  • Kas sul on see positsioon veel alles Leiko???
  • Circuit City (CC) kohta tuli välja selline uudis: Icahn agrees to finance Blockbuster bid for Circuit City ja aktsia hind hakkas uuesti kerkima, hetkel $5.14 ja 31.79% üleval.
  • Uudise mõju oli lühiajaline ning hetkeks kosuti kuid nüüd tõesti allapoole tiksunud.
  • leiko, kui müüsid juba, siis pole mu vastusest enam kasu. Aga kui selline tõus kaasa sõidetud, siis tasub tõesti müüa. Oleneb muidugi ka eesmärgist ja nägemusest, mis aktsiat ostes võttes, aga vaevalt, et sellist tulu nii kiiresti ootasid.

    Icahni uudis on oma sisult tegelikult juba hommikune ja praegu enam olulist mõju ei avalda. Kuigi suurt sünergiat kahe ettevõtte vahel ei näe, läksin CC-s lühiajaliselt $5.09 pealt pikaks.
  • Eelturg ja päeva algus olid justkui roosilisemad, aga 10-ndal ostsin 4.63-ga päeva lõpuks olin juba -7% ja reedeõhtaks -15%, aga tänane ca. +35% oli vahva küll, tänan tähelepanu eest! Igatahes- pole paha....
  • Blockbuster (BBI) Investor concerns may cause company to abandon Circuit City proposal!
  • Leiko, mu küsimus oli rohkem retooriline. Ma imestasin, et sa poole päevani oma plussi imetlema jäid. Kui selline tõus sülle kukub, siis tuleb see raha laualt ära võtta ja edasi liikuda.
  • See BBI + CC on nagu Dumb ja Dumber, vaadake paari aasta graafikuid, mõlemad ettevõtted täie võimsusega tegelenud aktsionäride vara hävitamisega.

    Next up: Maapank võtab üle Pennu Computers Technology.
  • puhkjapojad, sain aru küll, kuid kogemused USA börsil tegelikult puuduvad ja kui eelturul tõesti näitas dollari jagu kõrgemat hinda siis ajas silmad suureks küll, aga jään sellegagi rahule, sest see oli ettevõetud suure riskiga. Järgmine kord olen targem, või tean vähemalt kust küsida! Igatahes lõpp hea kõik hea.
  • Kus CROX treidida võiks avanedes? Kuradi alla müüdud lately. Läheb 16 kanti?
  • 16:48 CROX sees Q1 guidance at $0.08-$0.13, ex items vs $0.45 First Call consensus
    16:46 CROX Board of Directors approved an authorization to repurchase up to an additional 5 mln shares of its common stock
    16:45 CROX guides Q1 ($0.05)-$0.00 vs $0.45 First Call consensus; revs $195-200 mln vs $223.30 mln First Call consensus
  • siinkohal kuluks selline lugu ära: http://youtube.com/watch?v=zor--DNv8Oo
  • :)))
    paistab, et CROX on nüüd siis 2006 IPO tasemel tagasi
  • väga kiirelt praegu toimuvad turul need muutused
  • For the second quarter of fiscal 2008, revenues are expected to
    increase between 10% and 15% over the corresponding period a year ago
    with diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.42 to $0.47,

    Eelmise aasta 2. kvartal oli käive $224.3 mln. Ehk siis nüüd tuleb ca $246 - $258 mln. Konsensus on samas Yahoo andmetel 321 mln. Fugly.
  • "The retail environment in the U.S. has become increasingly challenging as consumer spending and traffic levels have slowed. Despite general weakness across the industry we continue to witness solid sell-through of our Crocs branded footwear and still expect domestic sales to still grow roughly 13% during the quarter. However, retailers in general are planning more cautiously, and therefore, we did not experience the level of at once business we originally expected. In addition, because of our current expense structure, a shortfall in sales versus our expectations disproportionately impacts our earnings results..."
    The co will host a conference call to discuss its revised outlook tomorrow, April 15, 2008 at 8:00 am ET
  • Crocs pääses Yahoo Top Stories hulka!!
  • Short a tinytiny bit of CROX @ 13.17.
    Lihtsalt homsed downgraded ilmselt toovad selle vähemalt hommikul veel allapoole.

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