Börsipäev 24. aprill - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 24. aprill

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  • Regulaarsel kauplemisajal üle 5% kukkunud Pulte Homes (PHM) avaldas eile peale turgude sulgemist tulemused. PHMi oleme soovitanud ka foorumis lühikeseks müüa, kuid praegu enam idee avatud polnud. Ootuspäraselt ei olnud tulemused kõige paremad:

    Pulte Homes reports Q1 (Mar) results, misses on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus (13.10 -0.72) : Reports Q1 (Mar) loss of $2.75 per share, may not be comparable to the First Call consensus of ($0.77); revenues fell 23.6% year/year to $1.4 bln vs the $1.42 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q2, sees EPS of -0.10-0.20 vs. ($0.42) consensus.

    Ettevõte pidi seoses maa ja varude allahindamisega kandma maha $663 miljonit. Siiski ületas põhitegevusest saadud kasum kergelt juhtkonna enda poolt varem antud prognoosi, samuti oldi turust optimistlikumad teise kvartali osas. See päästis aktsia ka kõige hullemast ning järelturul langeti veel -2.5%.

  • Credit Suisse Group (CS) teatas täna 2.15 miljardi frangi ($2.1 miljardit) suurusest kahjumist 5.3 miljardi frangi ($5.2 miljardit) ulatuses varade mahakirjutamisel, konsensuse poolt oodati ~600 miljonit franki kahjumit. Eelnevad kvartalid on CS puhtalt välja tulnud.
    Sellega ulatub suurpankade poolt mahakirjutatud varade maht juba $290 miljardini.
  • Hiina aktsiaturust ka. Nimelt ca kolm kvartalit tagasi, kui sealsed indeksid uusi tippe tegid ja 'valitsus kiire tõusu pärast mures oli', siis nüüd on Hiina aktsiaindeksid oma tippudest 50% allapoole tulnud ja taaskord on 'valitsus mures' - sedapuhku aga kiire languse pärast. Kui tõusu kärpimiseks ja mullistuvate valuatsioonide ärahoidmiseks kehtestas Hiina sügisel aktsiatehingutelt stamp taxi 0.3%, siis täna ollakse seda alandamas 0.1% peale.

    Reaktsioon turgudel väljendub viimase 6 aasta suurimas tõusus ja indeksite pea 10%lises plussis.
  • Citi on tõstmas Apple (AAPL) hinnasihti:

    Apple remains our top hardware pick through calendar year-end,with a new $248 12-month target, following a 7-8% revenue beat with upsidefrom all product lines in 1CQ08. A steady stream of new productannouncements between June and September should allow the company tocontinue to gain significant market share in PCs and handsets during 2HCY08.

  • Whirlpool (WHR) tulemused konsensuse ootustest $0.35 senti kehvemad ning prognoose langetatakse korralikult.Whirlpool misses by $0.35, beats on revs; guides FY08 EPS below consensus; announces $500 mln share repurchase.Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $1.22 per share, $0.35 worse than the First Call consensus of $1.57; revenues rose 5.1% year/year to $4.61 bln vs the $4.46 bln consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY08, sees EPS of $7.00-7.50 vs. $8.58 consensus. Co announces $500 mln share repurchase authorization. 
  • Avaldasime LHV Pro all kommentaari Philip Morris Internationali (PM) tulemuste kohta ning lühidalt öeldes oleme ettevõtte suhtes jätkuvalt positiivsed. Tubakatööstusest tuleb täna veel uudiseid, enne turge avaldab tulemused UST (UST) ja peale turge Altria (MO).

    Tulemuste osas tõotab tulla huvitav päev, enne turge avaldavad (osad on juba avaldanud) kvartaliaruande Ford (F), Motorola (MOT), Pepsi (PEP), US Airways (LCC) ja järelturul American express (AXP) ja Baidu (BIDU).

  • Ford (F) reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.05 per share, $0.21 better than the First Call consensus of ($0.16); revenues fell 8.4% year/year to $39.4 bln vs the $38.46 bln consensus. 
  • Black&Deckerit võib sarnaselt Caterpillariga pidada majandustegevuse/-kliima hindamisel heaks indikaatoriks. Tulemused kasumi osas üle ootuste, müügitulu inline; prognoosid ehk oodatust pisut konservatiivsemad, kuid ei midagi hullu veel.

    BDK sees Q2 $1.40-1.50 vs $1.49 First Call consensus
    BDK sees FY08 $5.25-5.65 vs $5.53 First Call consensus
    BDK prelim $1.29 vs $1.14 First Call consensus; revs $1.5 bln vs $1.53 bln First Call consensus
  • Motorola Posts Wider Loss as Phone Shipments Decline
    The net loss expanded to $194 million, or 9 cents a share, from $181 million, or 8 cents, a year earlier.
    Revenue declined 21 percent to $7.45 billion, trailing the $7.79 billion average of estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
    viide allikale
  • UST suutis analüütikute ootusi ületada: EPS oli $0.83 vs analüütikute oodatud $0.81. Nagu eelmistelgi kordadel, tuli põhiline kasv veinisegmendist (+25% yoy), samas suutsid müügimahtude tõusu näidata ka tubakatooted (+1.7%). Viimane on positiivne ka MO'le ja RAI'le.
  • XLNX võib täna $24 pealt päeva jooksul kosuda. Enam-vähem inline tulemused, aga gross margin üle analüütikute ootuste. Viimasele juhitakse tähelepanu ka Bairdi analüüsis; 2009 EPS estimate $1.28->$1.41; reit outperform, PT $30->$33.
  • Ja majandusandmed turgu toetamas...

    Weekly Initial Jobless Claims 342K vs 375K consensus, prior revised to 375K vs 372K
    March Durable Goods Orders ex-trans 1.5% vs 0.5% consensus; prior revised to -2.1% from -2.4%
  • Hiina turgude suur pluss tuleneb siis stamp tax-i vähendamisest valitsuse poolt, millest kirjutasin hommikul.

    Saksamaa DAX +0.13%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.16%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.20%

    Hispaania IBEX -0.55%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.32%

    Poola WIG +0.90%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.28%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.55%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +9.30%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +8.98%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.29%

    Tai Set -0.41%

    India Sensex +0.14%

  • Poised for a Pause
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    4/24/2008 8:51 AM EDT

    Unhappiness is best defined as the difference between our talents and our expectations.
    -- Edward De Bono

    The recent market rise has been fueled primarily by low expectations. With all the talk about economic, housing and debt problems, there was little reason to expect that earnings reports would be very good. General Electric (GE) helped to solidify that thinking with a surprisingly bad report.

    Subsequently, a very good report from Google (GOOG) and some solid earnings from the likes of Intel (INTC) and IBM (IBM) have driven the market steadily higher and created hope that maybe the worst is behind us.

    Last night and this morning, we have more good earnings reports from Apple (AAPL) , Amazon (AMZN) , Potash (POT) and several others. However, this time the market reaction to these earnings is not very positive. Expectations have risen sharply in the past week or so, and now the market is starting to worry about other things.

    While it is certainly a relief that earnings reports are generally pretty good, they are unlikely to remain a potent catalyst to drive the market as they are digested and discounted by the market. They do not eliminate the other issues that are still out there and that are likely to quickly become the focus of the market once again.

    One issue in particular discussed on the front page of The Wall Street Journal this morning is that the Fed may hold back on some future rate cuts as it evaluates how its efforts have worked so far and grapples with the inflationary pressures that are growing as oil and commodity prices continue to boom. Up until now, the Fed has expressed little concern about inflation or the weak dollar, but those things are apparently of increasing import.

    The indices remain in good shape technically, which means we have to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt, but with the end of major earnings reports, I believe there is a good chance the market is in danger of pulling back. Whether it simply consolidates and corrects a bit or downtrends more aggressively will depend on the economic news over the next few weeks. Unfortunately, the potential positive catalysts at this point are not very potent, and once some profit-taking kicks in, it is likely to quickly attract other sellers.

    I don't want to be too negative at this point, as the charts still look favorable and there is some good trading to be had in certain sectors. I am, however, staying very vigilant and am ready to move to a defensive posture very quickly.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: WIRE +21.3%, LSI +19.0%, SPAR +15.0%, ADSK +8.6%, CLS +7.4%, EQIX +7.0%, FFIV +7.0%, SKX +6.8%, ASIA +6.1%, HLIT +5.5%, PRXL +5.3%, F +4.9%, GDI +4.5%, FMC +3.9%, KEX +3.6%, AXYS +3.3%, NE +2.6%, TEX +2.5%, CPX +2.4%, CDNS +2.3%, BG +2.3%, NEU +2.0%, BEZ +1.8%, TRA +1.6%, AFL +1.4%, CS +1.2%, WOOF +1.2%, AAPL +1.0% (also upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Morgan Keegan)... Other news: EPIX +38.2% (announces positive results from re-read of Vasovist Phase 3 images), WAVE +31.3% (retains Deutsche Bank and UBS to explore the sale of its wireless spectrum holdings in the U.S.), SLTC +9.8% (Steel Partners discloses 10.2% stake in amended 13D filing; up from 8.9% previously reported on 12/31), ABK +8.1% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's 40%+drop), BVF +6.4% (receives FDA approval for Aplenzin), ABB +6.0% (still checking), COMV +3.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CLNE +1.8% (signs fueling contract for city of Las Vegas Transit Fleet), NRG +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst upgrades: SIRI +6.0% (assumed with a Buy at Citigroup), TRLG +5.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), RFMD +5.6% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), XMSR +4.1% (assumed with a Hold at Citigroup), LVLT +2.7% (upgraded to Neutral at Merriman).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VDSI -19.0% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan), SCSS -13.6%, TASR -13.0%, MCRI -11.9% (also downgraded to Source of Funds at ThinkPanmure), LYTS -11.2%, SBUX -11.0%, CNH -9.8%, FSTR -9.2%, WHR -8.8%, PTV -7.0% (also downgraded to Neutral at Merrill), XLNX -6.7%, KLIC -5.4%, QDEL -5.1%, EXTR -4.5% (also downgraded to Market Perform at JMP), LRCX -4.4%, NTRI -4.4%, CTXS -4.3%, AMZN -4.1%, MOT -3.7%, AZN -3.6%, WEN -3.4% (also Wendy's and Triarc sign definitive merger agreement), SANM -3.4%, RCL -3.3%, NSIT -3.1%, BCR -3.0%, CMG -2.6%, TSCO -2.1%, EFII -1.7%, PHM -1.5%, ADS -1.5%, QCOM -1.2%... Select mining stocks showing weakness: RTP -3.9%, BHP -2.7%, GOLD -1.8%, AUY -1.6%, AEM -1.4%, GFI -1.1%... Other news: CLMT -10.3% (announces quarterly cash distribution decrease of 27% to $0.45 per unit and downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James), EWBC -5.3% (to offer $150 million of non-cumulative convertible preferred stock), RZ -5.2% (still checking), ASML -2.2% (still checking), SOV -3.3% (continued weakness following yesterday morning's earnings, tgt was cut to $8 at Sterne Agee), NOK -2.5% (down in sympathy with MOT), GSK -2.5% (down in sympathy with AZN)... Analyst downgrades: CDL -3.2% (coverage assumed with Sell at Citigroup), ATI -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral at tier 1 firm), PLLL -1.5% (downgraded to Add from Strong Buy at Capital One SouthCoast), GW -1.4% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at BMO), NS -1.2% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley).
  • Pisut subjektiivsust: tuleb tunnistada, et olen üpris negatiivselt meelestatud turu suhtes tervikuna tänast päeva arvesse võttes pärast AAPL ja AMZN tulemusi...
  • Mnjah..lühikesi ollakse täna hirmsat poodi pigistamas.
  • Joel, irooniline, aga Sa oled vist turu tõusus süüdi. Sõnasid ära.
  • jyriado, sell the news ei töötanud ning lühikesi kaitsesid täna tõepoolest vaid stopid. Stopid lõid läbi uusi stoppe ja siis läksid juba pullid ahneks.
  • Kõrged ootused teevadki nüüd MSFT investoritele karuteene. Inline numbrid, prognoosid pisut alla, aktsia ca -1.5%

    MSFT sees Q4 $0.45-0.48 vs $0.48 First Call consensus; sees revs $15.5-15.8 mln vs $15.56 bln First Call consensus
    MSFT prelim $0.47 vs $0.44 First Call consensus; revs $14.45 bln vs $14.50 bln First Call consensus
  • Lõpetasin just tulemuste tabeli uuendamise - seega värskeim info siit.

  • Joel, tubli töö. Hea ülevaade, mis toimub.
  • Enne eileõhtuseid tulemusi oli tabelis 106 nime. Kasumi osas lõi neist ootusi 66 (62.3%), ootustele vastas 9 (8.5%) ja alla jäi 31 ettevõtet (29.2%). Müügitulude osas on ootustele alla jäänud kõigist 18 nime (17.1%!). Aktsiate reageeringud on aga täiesti pooleks - ehk 53 tõusjat ja 53 langejat, kusjuures tulemustejärgne keskmine liikumine on sellest hoolimata +0.79%. Ehk häid numbreid on premeeritud paremini ning nõrgemaid esitusi karistatud leebemalt.

    Oodatust paremaid prognoose on antud 8-l juhul, halvemaid 10-l juhul ning ootustele vastavaid 32 ettevõtte poolt.
  • Njah sellepõhjal võib tõesti arvata, et turud on oma põhja teinud ja pidu võib jätkuda, kuid firmabosside jutt on tulevikku silmaspidades suht tagasihoidliku jutuga. Hakka või arvama, et FED-i intresside alandamine pole enam õigustatud.

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