Börsipäev 6. juuni - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 6. juuni

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  • Täna hommikul on umbes selline tuju-meeleolu
    Robbie Williams - The Road to Mandalay
  • IPHS Innophos Holdings ests raised at Oppenheimer; tgt upped to $38 (28.90 )

    Oppenheimer raises their IPHS tgt to $38 from $26 and raises their 2008 and 2009 ests above consensus, noting the booming agricultural market continues to create a favorable price umbrella for IPHS's specialty phosphates, as integrated competitors divert rock toward fertilizers (they note MOS recently raised guidance due to the current unprecedented demand for fertilizers). Firm's 2008 EPS est goes to $4.85 from $4.47 (consensus $3.44), noting this is their fourth estimate increase in as many months, and they may be conservative on an '09E drop-off.

    P.S. Kalduks arvama vägivaldselt, et see stock võiks küündida 30 juurde täna. Tausta ei tea ja vast mingi kuni 29.30ni tunduks huvitav proovida

  • Focus Media (FMCN) on veidi liiga peksa saanud võrreldes tulemustega. Long .28
  • Ma ei usu, et enam nii head hinda saab aga ma usun, et täna võiksid need aktsiad üle 34 taseme ikka vast kaubelda.
  • Massive liikumine. Nonfarm payroll -49k vs ootus -58k vs ADP +40k
    EUR/USD pärast eilset tugevat liikumist veel tugevalt üles.
  • ADP pole küll hea korrelatsiooniga NFP suhtes, kuid +40k oli siiski väga hea üllatus ja see kruttis vist ootusi rohkem üles.
  • NFP on OK, May Unemployment Rate 5.5% vs 5.1% consensus; prior 5.0% on jama
  • The employment report is actually two separate reports which are the results of two separate surveys. The household survey is a survey of roughly 60,000 households. This survey produces the unemployment rate. The establishment survey is a survey of 375,000 businesses. This survey produces the nonfarm payrolls, average workweek, and average hourly earnings figures, to name a few. Both surveys cover the payroll period which includes the 12th of each month.

    ehk siis 60 000 majapidamise küsitluse tulemus näitab tööturgu halvemas valguses kui 375 000 ettevõtte küsitlus
  • Henno, äkki on üks põhjus selles, et tõusvate hindade tõttu on rohkem inimesi tööd otsimas ja ka end töötuna kirja panemas? Perekonnad, kus varem käis üks vanem tööl... võimalik, et nüüd on tõusvate energia, toidu ja laenukulutuste katteks ka teine vanem nii mõneski majapidamises tööd otsimas... või siis vanem poeg/tütar. Igaljuhul on see oluline (nõrkuse)märk, kui majapidamiste töötusmäär kasvab.
  • Yahoo! Icahn says Yahoo should offer to sell to Microsoft for $34.375/share
  • Briefingu konsensuse põhjendus märgatavalt tõusnud töötusmäärale:
    The jump in the unemployment rate is not a reflection of lower employment levels (or an indication that the nonfarm payroll data are misleading). It is due either to a large number of people re-entering the labor force and being counted as unemployed, or to a one-month aberrant swing in the data. Our bet would be on a combination of the two...
  • Mul on hea meel, et Briefing muga nõustub :)
  • Long ZQK @ 9.65.
    Tulemused vähem nigelad kui kardetud ja Morgan Keegan üsna positiivse calliga väljas.

    PS UAUA katan peale avanemist ära ilmselt. Keskmine 9.26. See oli VÄGA VÄGA VÄGA idootne treid. Esitan oma kandidatuuri nädala nõmedaima treidi kategoorias.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.48%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.87%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.03%

    Hispaania IBEX -1.32%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.39%

    Poola WIG +0.29%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.03%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.61%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.66%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.77%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq N/A

    Tai Set +1.05%

    India Sensex -1.25%

  • How to Play a
    Two-Headed Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/6/2008 8:03 AM EDT

    It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom ... it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way ...
    -- A Tale of Two Cities, Charles Dickens

    It's alive! The "worst is over" rally was starting to look like nothing but a pretty darn good bear-market bounce, but the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 have stayed stubbornly strong. On the other hand, the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average, although strong yesterday, have been rallying like an old man trying to get out of bed. There was the benefit of some weak crude oil prices for a few days, but the pressure on financials, housing and other groups have kept the senior indices contained while technology, biotechnology and retail have driven up the young whippersnappers.

    We clearly have is a two-tiered market now, with the small-cap and Nasdaq indices hovering around their highest points of the year, while the DJIA and S&P 500 are still well under their highs but with some signs that they are anxious to catch up. To further add to the complexity, we have a lot of very choppy action in the groups that have led for most of the year, such as oil, steel, agriculture, solar energy, base metals, mining and bulk shipping.

    The million-dollar question for us to ponder at this point is where a major change in leadership is going to come from. Can financials really put in a bottom and start trending up from here? Can groups like technology and retail lead? Will our favorite momentum sectors like oil, steel and fertilizers continue to outperform?

    These are not easy questions, but I tend to believe that the market is a bit too anxious to anticipate trends. I believe it unlikely that we are going to suddenly see oil fall apart and financials charge ahead. While the economy seems to be bumping along the bottom with some light at the end of the tunnel, the idea that the way forward will be easy seems overly optimistic, especially as signs of inflation continue to bubble up.

    The important thing at this point is not to be too over bullish or bearish. We obviously have some good strength in place and some weakness in others -- if we are too monolithic in our thinking we'll likely end up missing out. What I have been trying to do is stick to some of the hot sectors such as fertilizers while staying cognizant of the negatives that are brewing and may sting us at some point. This means I have to navigate a fine line between aggressiveness and defense, but that is the nature of trading most of the time.

    I am looking for the market to continue in this muddled fashion for a while with some bright spots of momentum but some ugly pockets of weakness as well. The bulls have an advantage in places like the Nasdaq 100, but the bears are showing some dominance in the S&P 500.

    This morning we have some mild action as we await payroll data from May. I'm not sure it's all that significant at this point with the Fed becoming increasingly focused on inflation and the dollar as the economy stumbles along but doesn't fall. A lot of folks are underinvested out there, and I suspect performance anxiety will help matters, but look for profit-taking to kick in pretty quickly as soon as momentum pauses.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PARL +17.6%, SORC +9.8%, APWR +7.8%, NSM +7.6%, ZQK +5.8%... M&A news: TMWD +48.0% (Sopra Group will acquire Tumbleweed stock in cash at $2.70/share)... Select oil/gas stocks showing strength with crude trading higher: FPP +7.0%, PDO +5.0%, ROYL +4.8%, NOG +4.7%, CXO +4.5%, CHK +2.5%, PBR +2.0% (finds oil in S-M-1288 block in Santos Basin; has not declared oil find commercially viable - Bloomberg)... Other news: ASMI +16.5% (announces receipt of unsolicited offer for ALD and PECVF front-end business activities from Applied Materials ), XJT +7.2% (continues to explore strategic options signs agreement with Continental), RCH +5.3% (profiled in Inside Wall Street section of Business Week), AGX +4.4% (wholly owned subsidiary, Gemma Power Systems, to partner with Invenergy Wind Management for wind farm projects), CFC +3.6% (Bank of America receives Federal Reserve approval of Countrywide purchase), BUCY +3.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TAP +1.3% (Federal regulators end investigation of Miller, Coors deal - DJ)... Analyst upgrades: CTC +4.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank), PNRA +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at Piper); BTU +2.3%, MEE +2.3%, ACI +1.9% and PDE +1.2% (all upgraded to Buy at Merrill).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: FMCN -9.6%, VCGH -8.9%, TSL -6.1%, PSMT -1.1%... Select European financial names showing weakness: BCS -4.9%, RBS -3.8%, LYG -3.0% (sets aside funds for U.S. payments probe - Bloomberg.com), CS -2.3% and UBS -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Societe Generale)... Select airline stocks showing weakness with crude trading higher: RYAAY -7.3%, AMR -6.4%, UAUA -5.0%, DAL -5.0%, LCC -4.8%, CAL -4.5%... Other news: GENT -41.9% (announces update from data safety monitoring board review of the phase III treatment trial of Defibrotide for severe Veno-Occlusive Disease; concluded that there were no safety concerns), GEOI -13.2% (announces a 1.53 mln share common stock private placement offering priced at $22.50/share), MTG -6.0% (Fitch has downgraded the ratings on MGIC Investment Insurer financial strength to 'A+' from 'AA'), BE -4.5% (discloses that CFO resigns), NCC -2.8% (is under U.S. scrutiny - WSJ), AIG -2.2% (SEC, Justice scrutinize AIG on swaps accounting - WSJ), WIN -2.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PVTB -1.9% (prices a 4 mln share common stock offering at $34/share)... Analyst downgrades: VLTR -5.5% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), MVL -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), ASIA -2.1% (hearing removed from Conviction buy List at tier 1 firm), BBY -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche Bank), CCI -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), GHL -1.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Wachovia), SAFM -1.1% (downgraded to Equal Weight at boutique firm).
  • ajalooliselt on nonfarm payrolls ja unemployment rate üpris huvitavalt käitunud

    aastatel 2001 kuni 2003 kerkis unemployment rate 4,0% pealt 6,0% peale ,samal ajal nonfarm payrolls kerkis -300K pealt +200K peale ehk vaatamata mühinal loodud uutele töökohtadele tööpuuduse määr kasvas

    aga kindlasti ei maksa unemployment rate mõju alahinnata, see on hulga emotsionaalsem number ja püüab pealkirjades enim pilku

  • ZQK .69 pealt hakkasin müüma, edasised pakid järjest kõrgemalt.
  • BB&T upgrade viskas ZQK tagasi üles.
  • Kokku kolmandik ZQK müüdud .69-.74.
  • UAUA cover @ 9.30. Väga rumal treid oli, kordan veelkord, et mul ikka endale ka meelde jääks, et mitte tulevikus lollusi korrata :)
  • kui keegi ostis IPHSi ..siis ma müüks ..turg tangib
  • flat UAUA. Sai sellest ajuvabast treidist veel kasumit ka. These is trading god! Aga ma olen oma karma kõik ära raisanud nüüd, rohkem ei tohi selliseid lollusi teha :)
  • Abesiki - telepaatia.

    Citigroup (C) long .38 umbes 1 min enne sinu posti.
  • Focus Media (FMCN) update:

    Eelturul 33.28 kesk. ostetud positsioon sai likvideeritud .75-.00.

    Ma tavaliselt samast kaevust kohe jooma ei torma, kuid ma ei mõista seda praegust müüki väga. Tulemused olid head ja tegelikult ületasid analüütikute ootusi. Ma arvan, et varem või hiljem tulevad bottom fisherid sisse.

    Ühesõnaga long 32.87 kesk.
  • Flat ZQK umbes .7 keskmiselt. Ei taha see kuskile minna ja turg on kah kergelt öeldes negatiivne, pole põhjust rohkem ootama jääda.
  • Focus Media (FMCN) keskmine .73

    Ma ei torma seda väga agressiivselt praegu keskmistama.
  • Jim, enek: lihtsam oleks lugeda kui on kirjutatud välja 9.70 või 33.75-34.00

    premarket tehtud väidetavalt kasumlike tehingutega eputamine 75 minutit hiljem on muidugi suht imelik, aga noh, free country, free advice :)
  • Street, korvi saamine ajab kõvatama? :)
  • Kallid postitajad, moderaatorid ja teised huvilised!

    Loen Börsipäeva foorumit juba mitu head aastat ning väga informatiivne lugemine ja kokkuvõtlik. Tavaliselt on jäänud päeva postituste arv 2-50 vahele, kuid viimane nädal on postituste arv järsult kasvanud ning info on kuidagi hüplev ja halvasti jälgitav. Kas oleks võimalik suunata "teatud" postitused mõnda teise foorumisse või Chat-i, pole aega seda kemplemist lugeda?
  • Muig, minu jaoks on kõvatamine kõikide oma treidide plussi ajamine väidetava averagemisega. Aga noh if it really makes you 10K per day ja toob jüngreid, good for you:)
  • ühinen wrc66-ga
    võiks olla eraldi teema kasvõi kauplemispäev 6.juuni vms
  • Olen plaaninuv viimane nädal täpselt sedasama öelda mis wrc66. Järsku oleks nagu rullnokkade hord krjanike liidu koosolekule trüginud.
  • kamoon, see on juhuslik reede, las me räuskame natuke väga tähtsate ja oluliste Briefingust ning Realmoneyst kopitud uudiste ja turuülevaadete kõrvale :D
  • natuke olulist infot ka:
    10:41 S&P 500 (SPX)/SPY retesting session lows @ 1382/138.60 .
    10:45 Dow (INDU) retests sesison lows @ 12360, S&P (SPX) new lows, NASDAQ COMP (COMPQ) still holding above 2509 session lows
    INDU @ 12365
    SPX @ 1381
    COMPQ @ 2511

    Olete rahul nüüd, kirjanike liit?
  • absoluutselt kõige huviatavam ja parem aeg üldse mu meelest ..action ja pidev reaalajas turu ülevaade.
  • Focus Media (FMCN) keskmine 32.47
    Jätkuvalt umbes poole punkti kauguselt jälgin.

    Turg on kuidagi väga negatiivseks pööranud ja mul pole seda tunnet veel peale tulnud, et back up the truck.

    AIG on 34 juurde jõudnud, mis on minu jaoks päris huvitav tase.

  • Focus Media 32.23 - vaikselt hakkab tekkima tunne, kus kumm on juba liiga pingule venitatud.
  • Kuulge mida te räägite? See ongi ju kauplemine. Mida te siin varem siis lugesite???

    No vbla kui üldse, siis teha 2 foorumit. Börsipäev 6 juuni kuhu lähevad mingid üldisemad asjad ja siis Kauplemispäev 6 juuni kuhu lähevad kiiredmad tehingud või intraday chat.

    Aga üldiselt mida rohkem infot, seda parem ju.
  • Päris põnev lugeda neid treide tüütul reedel, kui enek ei hakanud just 100 aktsiaga algul ostma, peaks nii heaks averageks nagu praegu käes olema ikka mingi 25-30 000 aktsiat.
  • Nõus momentumiga, ehk tõesti vajalik teha kaks foorumit - kauplemispäev ja börsipäev. Ühelt poolt on huvitav tehinguid jälgida, teiselt poolt võib antud jutt paljudele arusaamatuks jääda.
  • no aga kas börsipäev (mis niikuinii alles õhtul teemana tehakse) siis üldse tühjaks ei jääks?
  • Kõik on kriitikud. Aga eks see olegi edasiviiv jõud ju, eks?

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