Börsipäev 17. juuni - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 17. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Venemaa esimese kvartali majanduskasv ulatus 8.5%-ni, mis on küll väiksem Q4 9.5%-st, kuid kõrgem terve 2007. aasta 8.1%-st. Põhiliseks kasvuallikaks oli teenindussektor eesotsas ehituse ning jae- ja hulgikaubandusega.

    Praegu on Venemaal kõik korras, kuid pikemas plaanis on näha teatud ülekuumenemise märke. Oma ootusi veel ei muuda, majandus jääb tugevaks veel vähemalt aastaks ning aktsiaturud suudavad sellel aastal edestada teisi suuri arenevaid turge, samuti Lääne-Euroopat ja USAd.
  • Sistema-Hals published unaudited consolidated US GAAP financials for 1Q08. Revenues increased by 311% YoY to $142 mln, while EBITDA rose by 323% to $31 mln and net income grew by 352% to $27 mln.

    Aktsiat on rõhumas vaidlused Siemensiga, kuna Sistema-Hals ei suutnud õigel ajal üle anda valmivat ehitist. Aktsiate hinnatase on seetõttu odav ning avaldatud esimese kvartali tulemused mõjuvad positiivselt ka Sistemale.

  • Eile Credit Suisse downgrade PPC (maisihinna tõus ning igasuvine kanaliha hinnatõus ei pruugi sel aastal toimuda).
    Täna annab Stephens upgrade owerweight SAFM-le ning arvab, et weakness in chicken prices is about to turn.

    PPC sai eile päris tugevalt pihta ning samuti sümpaatiana ka SAFM (oma osa oli ka maisi hindades). Täna vastupidi?
  • Friedman Billings (FBR) usub, et viimastel kvartalitel aset leidnud tarbija krediidikvaliteedi langus jätkub ja halvimad ajad on alles ees. Tarbijat negatiivselt mõjutavad tegurid on peamiselt langevad kinnisvarahinnad, suurenev töötusemäär, kõrgemad toidu- ja kütusekulud ning vähenenud krediidi saadavus. FBR'i arvates võib olukord muutuda hullemaks kui 2001. a või isegi 1991. a majandussurutise ajal kogetud. Seega soovitatakse jätkuvalt müüa tarbijakrediidiga tegelevaid ettevõtteid nagu ACF, ADVNB, AXP ja COF. Positiivse erandina nähakse õppelaenude segmenti ja SLM saab ostureitingu osaliseks.
  • GS prelim $4.58 vs $3.42 First Call consensus; revs $9.42 bln vs $8.74 bln First Call consensus
  • CQB Chiquita Brands clarifies 2008 outlook and announces equity conference presentation; FY08 expected to be strong improvement vs year ago and Q3 results expected to be generally in line with prior year (16.65 )

  • 185.58 sell. paar päeva korralikult tõusnud ...ei tundunud enam.
  • enek, CQB ..FDP liinil ka mõtted jooksevad?
  • WNR paistab oma lendu jätkavat, eelturul 14,7
    Pole paha (TM Villu Reiljan) tõus eelmise nädala 10,5-lt
  • fyi ..WNR sai pankade asja korda, sai pikendust ja maksmises kokkuleppele. (eile oli luhu selle kohta)
  • Abesiki,

    CQB-st sain enamusest välja, mingid kübemed isegi 18 kandis. Osa veel käes, äkki läheb uuesti lendu. Tundub, et "signicant loss" ei olegi nii significant.

    FDP osas mulle tundub, et eile tehti põrge juba ära ja täna püütakse pigem kasumit võtta.
  • Saksamaa DAX +1.59%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.04%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.13%

    Hispaania IBEX +0.82%

    Venemaa MICEX +1.33%

    Poola WIG +0.84%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.04%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.12%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.75%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -4.95%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.39%

    Tai Set -1.32%

    India Sensex +1.96%

  • Time For Bold Action on Oil and the Dollar

    By Vincent Farrell Jr.
    6/17/2008 7:00 AM EDT

    The average price for unleaded regular gas is now $4.08, up from $3 a year ago. Of course, in L.A. it's $4.61, the highest local average price in America. The Saudis have called a meeting of producers and consumers for this Sunday to discuss the situation. Give them credit. They apparently added 300,000 barrels a day to the world market in May and say they'll chip in another 200,000 a day soon.

    The market didn't know what to think of this, and oil prices initially spiked to almost $140 a barrel in early Monday trading before calming down and actually closing off a few cents on the day at around $135. Extreme volatility often marks the top (or bottom) of a move by the way.

    In addition to engaging in a dialogue that will show that they are at least trying to help, the Saudis are likely to announce a bigger discount on the heavy sour crude they are having trouble selling. Heavy crude is harder to refine into high-end products like gasoline. The average profit on a gallon of gas is only 11 cents, half the usual profit, so bigger discounts are needed to incent potential buyers.

    The price that is quoted every day is a light crude. The heavy stuff is trading at around a $25 discount to what we hear every day, and evidently needs to be even cheaper to motivate the refineries to buy it. It is no real surprise that Exxon is selling the remaining company-owned service stations. Retail gas sales is a tough business.

    I was disappointed- but not really surprised- when the G8 meeting ended this past weekend with no clear support for our dollar. It's time for us to take a leadership position regarding both the dollar and the oil price, even if the rest of the developed world seems to want to avoid responsibility or involvement.

    We should step up to the plate and support the Saudi attempt to address the soaring price of crude and announce a joint intervention with them and release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR.) There are over 700 million barrels of oil currently stored in the SPR. It is disingenuous of us to think the world will pump all the oil they can to support our economy when we are apparently unwilling to participate in a solution.

    Our refusal to allow drilling in Alaska and in offshore deep waters is viewed as incomprehensible to the rest of the world. Releasing some oil from the SPR (starting at $135 a barrel) makes sense on a lot of levels. It would be wonderful, in my opinion, if the Fed also raised the Fed Funds rate to defend the dollar at the same time.

    There are solutions, but someone has to take the initiative. Raising rates when unemployment is rising is "unconventional." But the fixed income market has corrected to this environment and driven yields higher. Were the Fed to raise the Fed Funds rate, they would be following the market, not leading it. Such a move would be a powerful statement that we will defend the dollar.

    On a far more important topic, it apparently is true that Frederic Baur of Cincinnati, the deceased designer of the Pringles potato (without an "e" at the end) chip can, had his cremated remains buried in one if his tubular creations (The Week Magazine.) And, 101 year old Lillian Cox of Florida got her drivers license renewed for three more years. Thank God. How would she get to work!

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CSIQ +7.6%, SYUT +4.9% (light volume), CX +3.0%, CFX +2.4%, GS +2.0%, BBY +1.0%... Select mining stocks showing strength: RTP +2.5% (Chinalco may be keen to raise its stake in Rio Tinto - Sky News Online), BHP +1.8%, MT +1.8%, LMC +1.7%... Select financial stocks showing strength boosted by better than expected GS earnings results: UBS +4.0%, MER +2.5%, LEH +2.4%, C +2.2%, ING +2.1%, BAC +1.7%, HBC +1.0%... Other news: EFUT +6.9% (signs contracts to provide logistics resource management solution to WuShang), ELN +4.0% (Elan and Wyeth announce top-line results from Ph. II clinical trial of bapineuzumab for Alzheimer's), ALU +4.0% (Alcatel-Lucent and China Mobile signed a $1 bln framework agreement covering cooperation on mobile network upgrades and expansions in 2008), IFX +3.9% (shares up in Europe on Hynix deal, Samsung forecast - DJ), ERIC +2.4% (Sony Ericsson sees strong global demand for handsets - Reuters), WYE +2.4% (Elan and Wyeth announce top-line results from Ph. II clinical trial of bapineuzumab for Alzheimer's), TEVA +2.3% (still checking), SQM +2.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NMX +1.9% (reports May 2008 volume averaged 1.902 mln contracts per day), INSP +1.6% (Board renews authorization of stock repurchase program of up to $100 mln), URI +1.3% (commences modified Dutch Auction tender offer to purchase up to 27.16 mln of its shares at a price not less than $22 nor greater than $25 per share)... Analyst upgrades: BCS +5.3% (upgraded overnight in Europe to Hold at Dresdner Kleinwort), JBLU +4.1% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), CME +3.5% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), RBS +3.2% (upgraded overnight in Europe to Add at Dresdner Kleinwort), DHT +2.7% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), HOV +1.9% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INFN -29.3%, LZB -10.3%, ADBE -2.3%, TGAL -2.3% ... M&A news: CDNS -3.8% (proposes to acquire Mentor Graphics for $16.00 per share in cash)... Other news: CCH -5.8% (Bloomberg.com reports four brokerages including Merrill Lynch and Marfin Securities SA cut their price estimates for bottler after the co lowered its annual sales volume and profit forecasts), MHO -4.6% (still checking), ROH -4.6% (announces set of actions to restore profitability; will impact approx 925 positions expecting to result in estimated $0.35/share charge for Q2), LMNX -4.1% (announces public offering of common stock of 3.5 mln shares)... Analyst downgrades: CCC -5.7% (downgraded to Sell at Morgan Joseph), ACAD -2.3% (downgraded to Market Perform at FBR, downgraded to Hold at Jefferies and downgraded to Sell At BofA), CNK -1.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley), STRA -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus).
  • Goldmani tulemused on päris huvitavad. Varahalduse mahud on eelmise aastaga võrreldes neto sissetulevate rahavoogude arvelt ca 6% kasvanud. Equity underwritingus on saavutatud edu. Esmaemissioone on olnud kasinalt, järelikult tegu siis lisaemissioonidega. Debt underwriting on aga eelmise aastaga võrreldes kokku kuivanud enam kui 50%. Kui nüüd lisaemissioonide mahud peaksid järgnevail kvartalitel vähenema, oleks see probleemiks.

    Kõvasti on langenud ka FICC kategooria ehk fikseeritud sissetulekut pakkuvad instrumendid, valuuta ja toormaterjalidega seotud tulud. Eelmise aasta kvartaliga võrreldes langus 30%. Goldman Sachsi (GS) aktsia on nüüd enne neid tulemusi muidugi kenasti tõusnud ka ja biitimise suuresti sisse arvestanud. Kell 11 USA idaranniku aja järgi konverentsikõne siis.
  • Täna on ilmselt vaikne börsipäev tulemas, AIM jukerdab :)
  • Kellele GS konverentsikõne huvi pakub, siis link siin. Kõne just algas.

  • ega jah AIM kontaktideta averaging väga hästi välja ei tule;)
  • Tuleb tunnistada, et kui GSi tulemused välja jätta, on tegu olnud üpriski igava päevaga börsil. Külgsuunas liikumine enamuse osa päevast... Aga homme enne turgu siis Morgan Stanley (MS) tulemused.
  • Aga Lehmann (LEH) lammutab järjest uusi põhju igaljuhul. -7.3% juba. See hea märk ei ole.
  • Tehnoloogiasektor püsib tugevana ja kui tehnoloogiasektorist peaks hakkama raha välja voolama võib pilt väga punaseks minna. Nasdaq-i komponentidel 8-10% langust ei oleks hetkel eriti üllatuseks ja praeguseid valuatsioone arvestades täiesti arvestatav võimalus. Lähenev tulemushooaeg peaks ka kergelt selgust tooma tehnoloogiasektori käekäigust, eriti globaalse inflatsiooni tõusu ja jahtuva tarbimise koosmõjul.

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