Börsipäev 21. august - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 21. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Üks lõbusam lõik tänasest Baltic Morning News'ist 

    In “Monopoly”, the most expensive property is found in Riga. Hasbro Inc. will introduce a global version of its popular board game “Monopoly”, which includes 22 cities around the world this time. In the classic version of the game, patented by Charles Darrow in 1935, the most expensive properties are normally Boardwalk and Park Place. But in the new global version, the most expensive properties will be represented by Montreal and Latvia’s capital Riga (dark blue property group).

  • FT'st:

    Lehman Brothers, the beleaguered US investment bank, held secret talks to sell up to 50 per cent of its shares to South Korean or Chinese parties in the first week of August but failed to reach agreement with either.

    The South Koreans and Chinese walked away after concluding that Lehman was asking too high a price, said New York-based people familiar with the potential buyers. Lehman declined to commen

    Artikli järgi tundisd Lehmani osaluse vastu huvi hiinlaste CITIC Securities ja Korea riigile kuuluv Korea Development Bank.

  • Augusti esimesel nädalal oli LEHi hind $20 ümbruses, täna ca $13.5. Kui see on tõsi, siis see näitab, et potentsiaalseid ostjaid/huvilisi leidub ja see on positiivne. Küsimus on vaid hinnas ja aktsia hind turul on kukkunud ca 35% viimase kahe nädalaga.

  • Bloombergis on täna päris huvitav artikkel sellest, kuidas Venemaal korjavad põllumehed viimase 15 aasta parimaid saake ja on tekkinud probleeme saagi säilitamisega, kuna mahtude piirid hakakvad ette tulema. Suurte saakide uudised on tavatarbijaile vaid positiivsed, kuna mitmeid aastaid järjest oleme kuulnud uudiseid keskmisest kesisemate saakide kohta maailma erinevates piirkondades nign see on kaasa aidanud toiduainete hindade tempokale inflatsioonile.

    Võimalik, et tubli saagikus Venemaal aitab kaasa ka ekspordimahtude tõusule läbi Balti sadamate.

    Link artiklile on siin. 

  • Salesforce.com’i (CRM) tulemused suutsid küll konsensuse prognoose täita, kuid nagu eilses foorumis sai mainitud, mitteametlikud ootused olid märksa kõrgemal.

    Reports Q2 (Jul) earnings of $0.08 per share, in-line with the First Call consensus of $0.08; revenues rose 48.9% year/year to $263 mln vs the $260.6 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q3, sees EPS of $0.08-0.09, excluding the effect of the InStranet acquisition, vs. $0.09 consensus; sees Q3 revs of $273-274 mln vs. $273.15 mln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $0.34-0.35, excluding the effect of the InStranet acquisition, vs. $0.35 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $1.07-1.075 bln vs. $1.07 bln consensus.

    Turg ootas kindlasti CRM’lt agressiivsemat kasvu ja rahulolematust väljendas ka järelturul $59-ni ehk 8% võrra langenud aktsiahind. Samuti on täna analüütikud negatiivsete kommentaaridega väljas: Citi oma reitingut ega hinnasihti ei muuda, kuid Piper Jaffray langetab soovituse “Hoia” peale hinnasihiga $65 (varasem $81).  

  • UBS tõstab täna söeaktsiate Arch Coal (ACI), Foundation Coal (FCL) ja Massey Energy (MEE) reitingud "Osta" peale, märkides soodsat valuatsiooni. Hinnasihid on vastavalt $70, $75 ning $77.
  • CITIC tundis väidetavalt Bear Stearnsi vastu ka huvi... :)
  • Väike täpsustus CRM'i kohta: Citi siiski langetab hinnasihi $70-ni (varasem $80):

    Lower TP to $70 from $80 — New TP $70 based on 30% FCF growth, 30x multiple, on CY09 $2.34 FCF/share (was 32%, 32x, $2.49). FY10/CY09 EPS unchanged, but modeling lower def. rev. growth and cash flows. Maintain Hold.
  •  Initial Claims 432K vs 440K consensus, prior revised to 445K from 450K
  • Üks eilne uudis, mis avalikustati pärast USA sulgemist: Citigroupi langetas Lehmani, Morgan Stanley ja Goldmani 3Q prognoose.

    LEH kahjumiks oodatakse $3.25 dollari aktsia kohta (varasem $0.41). MS kasumiks prognoositakse $0.75 dollarit per aktsia (varasem $0.76) ja GS kasumiks $2.50 dollarit (varasem $4.50). Konsensus ootab samuti Lehmanile kahjumit ning Morgan Stanley’le ja Goldman Sachsile kasumit.

    Citi soovitab osta MSi ja LEHi ning hoida GSi. Morgan Stanley on hästi positsioneeritud kui turul tekib paranemismärke ja Lehmani aktsiahinda on diskonteeritud liiga palju mahakandmisi.

    P.S Citi hinnangul võib Basel II raamistikus Lehman vastu võtta kuni $8 mld dollarit kahjumit enne kui abi on vaja otsida finantsturgudelt.  

  • Merrill Lynch: NY AG Cuomo says Merrill must settle auction-rate probe today - Bloomberg
  • Stand Your Ground
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/21/2008 8:42 AM EDT

    Eschew the monumental. Shun the Epic. All the guys who can paint great big pictures can paint great small ones.
    -- Ernest Hemmingway

    With oil prices up, the dollar weak and continued worries over the health of Fannie (FNM) and Freddie (FRE) , the market is poised for a weak start this morning. To complicate matters, we are in the dog days of summer, and volume is likely to be extremely light through Labor Day.

    Even in this dismal atmosphere, there are some trading opportunities, as we saw yesterday in solar energy and some of the commodity groups. However, what's most important right now is to not lose sight of the fact that we are in a bear market.

    One thing I find troubling about most stock market commentary and the business media is the constant need to make monumental predictions. They keep urging us to anticipate major bottoms and want us to load up on stocks in the hunt for the elusive turn. Unfortunately, even in a bear market, there is enough strength at times to entice us into believing that this time, the bottom really is here, and we'd better hurry up and buy stocks so we aren't left out.

    While playing bottoms and bounces may work from a short-term trading standpoint, it is a recipe for pain if you holding for the longer term. Above all else, you need to respect the major trend and to recognize that things will often go lower than seems possible. Stick with the small stuff rather then the epic and monumental prediction.

    One thing to keep in perspective is that so far, our current bear market has lasted about eight months. That is a very short period, especially when you consider that our last bear market lasted around 33 months back in 2000 to 2003. Given that our economic challenges in banking and housing may be far greater than the bursting of the technology bubble, we have to be very careful about being prematurely hopeful that a major turn is coming.

    I don't want to sound too gloomy here. There will be many excellent trading opportunities, but it is very important to keep the right mindset when pursuing them and not get sucked into the constant calls that the worst is over. Take your profits and use strength for selling and repositioning.

    The media loves the grand predictions, and it probably gets ratings because people get tired of negativity, but it is a money-loser if you embrace it and lose focus. Stick with the view that we are in bear market until there is some real evidence that a change is upon us.

    This morning, it looks like the weak dollar, stronger oil and commodity trade is back on. The media is obsessing over the potential for a FNM and FRE bailout, and traders are looking for some action once again in oils and metals.

    Good luck and go get 'em.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LTD +5.7%, BYI +5.6%, PLCE +5.3%, CHMP +3.9%, DKS +1.3%... M&A news: THRM +39.1% (receives unsolicited acquisition proposal for $5.50/share)... Select metals/mining stocks showing modest strength: HL +4.1%, ABX +3.4%, AUY +2.9%, HMY +2.5%, GOLD +2.5%, SLW +2.3%, AU +2.2%, GFI +2.1%, GLD +1.5%... Select small cap oil/gas names trading higher: PDO +8.6%, FPP +6.2%, ROYL +3.9%... Other news: NOVN +7.1% (signs license and supply agreements with Procter & Gamble Pharmaceuticals for patches to treat HSDD), DGP +4.8% (still checking), SGLP +2.9% (CFO says co has "sufficient liquidity to operate" - DJ), CREL +1.9% (stated that it is in discussions with a third party regarding a potential sale of Corel), NCC +1.4% (has hidden treasure: $1 billion stake in Visa - Bloomberg.com)... Analyst comments: ACI +3.1% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), PCU +2.2% (upgraded to Neutral at Merrill), MEE +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at UBS), WCG +1.5% (initiated with Buy at BofA), FCL +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at UBS).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JDSU -11.8%, HOTT -9.8%, CRM -9.6% (also downgraded to Neutral at Piper), ISSC -9.6%, SNPS -7.4% (also downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), GME -6.8%, FRO -5.7%, LYTS -4.5%, PVH -3.1%... Select mortgage/financials showing continued weakness: RDN -11.8%, FRE -10.5%, FNM -8.4%, FMD -7.6%, ABK -7.3%, LEH -4.6% (FT reports LEH held secret talks to sell up to 50% of its shares to South Korean or Chinese parties but failed to reach agreement with either), WM -4.4%, IBN -4.3%, MBI -3.7%, LYG -3.2%, HBC -2.7%, COF -2.4%, BAC -2.0%, MER -1.5%... Select airline names trading lower with strength in crude and following WSJ story that airlines are predicted to lose billions: LCC -8.8%, UAUA -7.5%, AAI -7.3%, DAL -6.3%, CAL -5.3%, AMR -4.6%, JBLU -2.7%.
  • Euroopa ja Aasia põhiindeksid punased (v.a Venemaa):

    Saksamaa DAX -1.26%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.31%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.14%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.12%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.64%

    Poola WIG -0.54%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.77%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.53%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.63%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.69%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.83%

    Tai Set 50  -1.92%

    India Sensex -2.96%

  • Commodity correction nothing to do with fundamentals, says JPM's Henderson

    Henderson says energy and mining stocks have not been this cheap for a decade. He even says he finds it ‘astonishing’ that energy stocks have fallen to such an extent, given the sector’s potential earnings growth

    Henderson is also keen to assert that he is expecting the gold price to rise and is happy with the fund’s healthy exposure to the sector.

    allikas: Citywire
  • Investeerimispanga Cowen analüütikud käisid nädala alguses San Jose Interneti Otsingumootorite esindajate konverentsil. Pärast konverentsi usuvad analüütikud endiselt tugevasse otsingumootorite reklaamikasvu- vähem toovad otsingumootoritele tulu kinnisvarasektoriga seotud ettevõtted. Samas kasvavad jõudsalt tehnoloogia, meelelahutus ja jaemüüjate reklaamikulused otsingumootorites.

    Cowen on endiselt bullish turuliidri Google suhtes ja usub, et ettevõte suudab jääda hoolimata majanduse jahtumisest oma seniste prognooside juurde. Coweni arvates ületab Google aktsia turgu 20% võrra järgneva 12 kuu jooksul.

    Kaufman vaatas samuti hinnangu Google suhtes üle tegi järgnevad tähelepanekud:

    a) Reklaamikulutused USAs vastavad enamvähem Google prognoosidele

    b) väljaspool USA pole märke Interneti reklaamikulutuste vähenemisest, kuigi Euroopa majandus on väga kehvas seisus 

    c) Google tulusid väljaspool USA mõjutab valuutaturg. Rahvusvahelised tulud peaksid dollari kallinemise tõttu teiste valuutade suhtes vähenema $20-$30 mln dollarit. Google ise valuutariski ei karda, kuna see olevat varem hedge’ga kaitstud.

    Kaufman ei muutnud oma ostusoovitust Google suhtes.

    Google on hetkel 0.28% plussis

  • ThinkPanmure tuli täna hommikul välja positiivse sõnavõtuga LHV Pro idee Gigamedia (GIGM) suunas. Soovitab aktsiat osta, hinnasihiks pakub täna $18.

    GigaMedia assumed with a Buy at Thinkpanmure- tgt $18 (11.79 ) : ThinkPanmure assumes GIGM with a Buy and an $18 tgt based on its strong management team with a track record of delivering on strategic objectives, its online gambling franchise, which they think has the potential to be monetized further, and its pipeline of some highly anticipated games. In addition, the firm thinks that there are a number of scenarios that are not fully baked into the current share price (cross-selling casino products, impact of World Series of Poker Sponsorship, Japan launch, sports betting, pipeline of new games, and a long shot for the U.S. markets), which may drive upside for GIGM shares.

  • Leading Indicator kukkus rohkem kui analüütikud ootasid. Leading Indicator langes 0.7% (konsensus ootas -0.2%).

    Ken Goldstein, Conference Board's Economist said that the recent drop in gasoline wasn t enough to overcome the negative mood and that the economy looks like it is coming to a halt. 

  • Nafta hind on täna jõudnud juba 5% plusspoolele ja barrel maksab $121.2.
  • ECB'S Liebscher tells Reuters Euro zone economy far from recession, or from going into a recession - Reuters
    ECB'S Liebscher says inflation still expected to drop in 2H 2008 and through 2009. 2008 inflation will likely be within June staff forecast range of 3.2-3.6%.
  • Ehitajad rallivad täna tõusvas joones päris korralikult, XHB juba jõudnud +1.22% tõusu $18.27 tasemele. Finantssektor on samuti kosunud päeva põhjadest, kuid toornafta futuurid püsivad üle +5% tõusus, $121.45 barrel tasemel. Kas turg jõuab siit veel kosuda?
    FRE ja FNM on stabiliseerunud, mis annab finantsile tuge.
  • (LEH) Lehman Brothers sheds two top executives - Dealbreaker

    Dealbreaker reports two top executives are leaving Lehman Brothers. Rich McKinney, who was the head of American securitized products business for Lehman, and Ted Janulis, the head of the mortgage capital division, plan to leave the co, sources with knowledge of the matter said. Both men worked for divisions closely tied to some of the most precarious sectors of the credit markets. The market in structured products has severely contracted as underlying mortgages have begun to default at unprecedented rates and banks have written-down billions in losses... The departures will likely be read by short-sellers and critics as another sign that Lehman is set to announce huge write-downs and another quarter of losses when it wraps up its third quarter. The departure of Janulis may indicate that Lehman is close to a deal to sell parts of its investment management division, a business that Janulis helped build for the co.  

  • (MER) Merrill Lynch settles auctoion rate claims with Massachusetts-- Bloomberg
    Still working on a national settlement; to start auction rate buybacks in October.
    Ja finants tegi väikse jõnksu ülespoole.
  • ES futuurid jõudnud positiivsele poolele, SPY kõigub samuti nulli ümber, nafta jätkuvalt $121.02 +4.72%, kas turg jõuab üles minna?? Suurimat nõrkust ilmutab täna eilsele sarnaselt tehnoloogiasektor. Ehitajad on oma tugevuse säilitanud ja teevad üha uusi tippe, kas võiks oodata päevalõpuks indeksitelt tõusu või müüakse põrmu?
  • Ja ralli võib alata: Ladenburg Thalmann tõstis Lehman Brothersi (LEH) soovituse osta peale, kuna arvavad et ettevõtte ülevõtmine mõne suurema poolt on lähiajal tulemas.
  • Hetkel ralli veel üsna kahvatu, LEH käis hetkeks nullis, kuid langes kohe tagasi. Pullid võitlevad täna üsna korralikult S&P 500 tiirleb juba ümber eilsete sulgemistasemete, YM futuur ka juba +0.1% tõusus käinud ning Nasdaq liigub samuti ülespoole, kuigi väga visalt.
  • Penen siia (LEH) Lehman Brothers-i reitingu tõstmise kokkuvõtte: Upgrade details

    As mentioned at 13:16, Ladenburg Thalmann upgraded LEH to Buy from Neutral and cut its tgt to $20 from $23. Firm says the heightened market fears concerning the outlook for the co suggests that the stock will sell at a lower multiple to book value. Firm says investors are convinced that that this co cannot survive or that it will be forced into taking huge losses that will devastate book value. Based on this view they have pushed the stock down to a value that is approx 48% of tangible book value and 37% of stated book value. If one assumes that the Neuberger Berman subsidiary is worth somewhere between $9 to $13 bln, the rest of the co is being valued at less than zero. A valuation of this nature would only make sense if the co were to go out of business and then still owe money to its creditors, which of course could not happen. In fact, it is thought that mgmt believes that the tangible book value is correct. Based upon this belief it is possible that negotiations to sell a portion of the co to outsiders broke down because mgmt was demanding to paid book value or a premium to book value.

  • FRE ja FNM käitumine on mõistetamatu. Saadi aru, et viimased päevad oli ülereageerimine?

    Kahju, et päeva alguses call'id võtmata jäid.
  • Turg päris ilusti ülespoole liikunud ning ka tehnoloogia futuurid on jõudnud nulli, kas rallitakse edasi ja suudetakse tasemeid hoida?

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