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Börsipäev 3. veebruar

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  • Tänasel eelturul teatavad oma tulemused teiste seas Avon Products (AVP), British Petrol (BP), Dow Chemical (DOW), Marathon Oil (MRO), Merck (MRK), Motorola (MOT), Schering-Plough (SGP), UPS (UPS). Järelturul tulevad veel Electronic Arts (ERTS), Massey Energy (MEE), Tupperware (TUP) ja Walt Disney.

    Tulemuste tabel ise asub siin. 

  • SAS teatab oma aastaaruandes plaanist müüa Estonian Airi osalus:

    Focus on Nordic home market
    Core SAS involves a strengthened focus on the Nordic home market. To maintain the Group’s strong position in this market,
    companies not directly involved in core operations will be sold. In January 2009, SAS signed a final agreement regarding the
    sale of Spanair and completed the divestment of its stake in airBaltic. In addition, BMI, Air Greenland, Spirit, Cubic, Trust,
    Estonian Air and Skyways will be divested. SAS Cargo will focus on selling belly capacity to the Group’s airlines. Part of the
    restructuring will also entail that units in STS and SGS, as well as certain central functions, will be outsourced.

  • Industrial producer prices (PPI) in the euro zone fell by 1.3% in December, marking the fifth consecutive monthly drop. Annualized producer price inflation slowed to a 1.8% rise. Prices posted a 2% monthly drop in November and a 3.3% year-on-year increase. Forecasts were for a 1% monthly fall and a 2% annualized rise in December. Excluding energy and construction, PPI fell 0.6% in December for a 1.6% annual rise.

    Euroopa turud peale makrot punast kündmas ja USA futuurid samuti -0.5% langusesse viinud.
  • Ka Austraalia süstib sarnaselt paljudele teistele riikidele oma finantssüsteemi ja majandusse raha. Infrastruktuuri, koolide, elamuehituse ning madala sissetulekuga inimeste toetamiseks on plaanis kokku kulutada ca USD$26.5 miljardit.
  • U.S. Chain store sales increased 1.6% in Jan 31 week vs -1.8% in prior week, according to ICSC/Goldman Sachs
  • Pangad laenavad vastumeelselt ja tehakse seda siis, kui valitsuselt on abi saadud... ning loomulikult treitakse sellest suur lugu, et pank on nüüd laene andmas : )

  • Saksamaa DAX +0.93%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.75%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.94%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.38%

    Venemaa MICEX +0.95%

    Poola WIG -2.31%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.62%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.66%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.45%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.43%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.78%

    Tai Set 50 +0.70%

    India Sensex 30 +0.91%

  • Apathy Creeps In
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/3/2009 8:51 AM EST

    Hate is not the opposite of love; apathy is.
    -- Rollo May

    The biggest challenge of a bear market is that they wear you out emotionally rather than scare you out with suddenly drops. After the crash in 1987, many investors came to believe that a market bottom is typically formed following a sudden, huge drop lower. That did happen back then, but the more common model is what we saw when we bottomed in 2002 -- there was nothing particularly remarkable about the point at which we finally hit the low, but we turned once the war in Iraq began, and that was the low that finally stuck.

    We are in that phase of the market now where disgust and apathy are steadily increasing. We have seen a particularly good example this past week as investors have been giving up hope that a governmental bank rescue and/or a stimulus plan is going to the thing that turns this market. As rumors of each new plan begin to circulate, the market is quickly finding the flaws and is unable to attract any sustained buying.

    We may see some positive market reaction once final deals are made, but the market is anticipating the moves and is obviously highly skeptical about how effective any plan might be. We have enough shorts and sidelined bulls that we can see some spikes as news hits, but we have a huge amount of apathy and disinterest that is going to weigh on this market.

    I really would love to paint a rosy and optimistic picture here, but I strongly believe we are in that phase of the market where our perseverance will be tested. Fighting this grinding acting takes the biggest toll on investors, but the good news is that this sort of action will lead us to the promised land.

    I have no idea how long this phase of the bear market will last, but it is clearly developing further, and more and more market players are becoming exhausted by it and giving up.

    The best way we can deal with it is to simply be aware of it and cultivate patience. If you know it is going to be slow, grinding action and you don't try to deny that fact, then you are better prepared to deal with it.

    This morning we have very flat action as talk about the next governmental move dominates the news media. We continue to have very gloomy news flow overall, and disinterest appears to be the dominant emotion as market players look for something that is capable of making a real difference in this market.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RCII +9.0%, COCO +8.0%, EMR +6.9%, ADP +6.1%, ARMH +5.8% (light volume), MRK +5.3%, VOD +5.0%, ATHR +4.9%, AFL +4.6%, CCK +4.0%, ADM +3.6%, MYGN +3.1%, TYC +1.7%, OTTR +1.5% (light volume)... Select drybulk shipping names showing strength: DRYS +32.5% (reaches preliminary agreement for covenant waiver and deferral of loan installments with Piraeus Bank), EGLE +4.5%, GNK +3.5%, TBSI +3.0%... Other news: ITMN +25.4% (reports results of two Phase 3 Capactiy studies of pirfenidone in IPF), OSIP +11.1% (OSI Pharm Phase III study showed Tarceva in combination with Avastin as First-Line Maintenance Therapy improved progression-free survival in advanced lung cancer), FSYS +5.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DB +4.1% (still checking), ELN +3.0% (CNBC reports that a study in a new medical journal reports that Tysabri can be cleared from blood within days), RTP +2.9% (Rio Tinto eyes $20 bln Chinalco deal as one-step debt solution - The Australian), GOLD +2.6% (still checking), C +2.2% (Citigroup to deploy $36.5 bln to boost loans: Report - Reuters; WSJ reports that Citigroup explores breaking Mets deal), MHS +1.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DNA +1.2% (OSI Pharm Phase III study showed Tarceva in combination with Avastin as First-Line Maintenance Therapy improved progression-free survival in advanced lung cancer)... Analyst comments: RBS +3.4% (upgraded to Overweight at HSBC), CVC +2.6% (initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich), CSCO +1.2% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SNDK -20.4% (also files mixed shelf offering for unspecified amount), CE -13.5% (light volume), MOT -11.9%, PRGO -10.7%, TRID -9.4% (also downgraded to Underperform at Needham), HOLX -7.7%, CAM -5.6%, BP -3.5%, AVP -1.9% (light volume), DOW -1.4%... Select European financial stocks trading lower: AIB -9.9%, IRE -8.4%, CS -3.2%, BCS -3.0%... Other news: FGP -6.9% (announces the commencement of an underwritten registered public offering of 4.5 mln common units representing limited partner interests), M -6.9% (continued weakness from yesterday's cost cutting initiatives, dividend cut, guidance and notes offering announcement), TS -3.4% (still checking), ROH -2.6% (trading down in sympathy with DOW), BMRN -2.3% (Results from Phase 2 clinical study of 6R-BH4 in peripheral arterial disease not statistically significant)... Analyst comments: MGM -9.8% (initiated with Sell at Citigroup).
  • December Pending Home Sales m/m +6.3% vs 0.0% consensus, prior revised to -3.7% from -4.0%
  • Federal Reserve announces extension through October 30, 2009, of its existing liquidity programs that were scheduled to expire on April 30, 2009
  • Automüügi kohta USAs:

    Indications of a trough in automobile sales are apparent in recent sales data, with sales in October through December running at annualized rates of 10.6 million, 10.2 million and 10.3 million, respectively. January sales are seen at a 10.2 million pace. These figures are all terrible, of course, given that sales before the recession tended to run near a 16.0 million pace...

    16 miljoni pealt 10 miljoni peale - langust 37.5%.
  • MGM Mirage (MGM) : Details of Citigroup initiation with a Sell & $2.50 tgt

    As mentioned earlier, Citigroup initiated MGM with a Sell and $2.50 tgt, saying completion of the CityCenter mega-project could not come at a worse time for MGM. Firm notes that to date, 55% of condo units have been sold, with only 20% deposits being received. Considering estimated spot prices have fallen 33% since the pre-sales (peak), their base case is a 20-30% default rate. With $15.4 bln in debt (including unconsolidated JVs), they struggle to find any equity value for the group.

    Üsna huvitav shortimis kandidaat, hetkel kauplemas $7.57 tasemel -6.89%
  • IB igatahes ei leidnud hommikul, mistõttu on asi plaanist maas.
  • :-), aga alternatiiv oleks synthetic short, kuid optsioonide likviidsus on üsna kehva ning spreadivahelt tuleks väikest lossi.
  • Visa (V) avaldab oma tulemused homme pärast turu sulgemist. Pete Najarian soovitas "Fast Money's" aktsiaid enne tulemusi osta. Dan Fitzpatrick on seepeale RealMoney's huvilistele aktsiale ka tehnilise pildi peale joonistanud:

  • Senate Republican plan proposes cutting U.S. corp. tax bracket to 25% from 35% for 1 year
  • Sattusin veel ühe hea tabeli otsa, kus on ära toodud aktsiad tõusvate (jah, tõusvate) kasumiprognoosidega viimase 3 kuu jooksul:

  • Walt Disney prelim $0.41 vs $0.51 First Call consensus; revs $9.6 bln vs $10.07 bln First Call consensus
  • Ja veel tulemustest siia. Thor Industries (THO) tegeleb peamiselt vaba aja sõidukite ja busside müügiga. Prognoosid jaanuariga lõppenud kvartaliks on müügitulu osas kohutavad. Busside müük on aasta tagusega võrreldes vähenenud 2% ning eratarbimisest sõltuv vagunelamute müük on vähenenud 73% !

    Co announces preliminary Q2 sales of $227 mln (vs $318.96 mln First Call consensus), down from $599 mln last year. RV sales were $135 mln, down from $505 mln last year. Bus sales were $92 mln versus $94 mln last year... Backlog on January 31, 2009 was $392 mln, down from $568 mln last year. RV backlog was $175 mln, down from $318 mln last year. Bus backlog was $217 mln versus $250 mln last year.

  • Mida sellest vagunelamust ikka osta , kui sama hinnaga saab juba maja mõnelt pankrotioksjonilt ... :)
  • Mis asi see on keegi ostab müüb citit 47,1 ! Palju õnne.
    16:40 $ 3.45 702
    16:40 $ 3.46 365,788
    16:39 $ 47.10 80,000
    16:39 $ 47.10 20,000
  • noh, see on mitme sajandi perspektiiviga võetud.
  • ma oleks ka käsi, aga pole kindel, kas saan tulla sinu õlut jooma, kuigi olen nädalavahetusel linnas...
  • täpsustuseks - kas pidasid silams reede close´i alla 800 või et reedeks on käidud allpool ära?
  • close alla 800, asi on imho piisavalt küpse
    aga "tähistama" võib juba varem hakata ;), laupäeval ei ole ma Tallinnas

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