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Börsipäev 13. märts

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  • Australia ASX 100 +85.60 +3.20% 2,763.20 3/13 4:30pm
    Australia ASX All Ords +98.90 +3.10% 3,289.30 3/13 4:30pm
    Australia ASX Mid-cap 50 +88.90 +3.21% 2,862.70 3/13 4:30pm
    Hong Kong Hang Seng +430.44 +3.59% 12,431.97 3/13 1:29pm
    Hong Kong HSCC Red Chip +85.33 +2.97% 2,977.62 3/13 1:30pm
    Japan Nikkei 225 +340.76 +4.73% 7,539.01

    Aasia rohetab.Loodetavasti ka Euroopas ilus päev.
  • USA suurim võlakirjainvestor Hiina hakkab üha tugevamalt väljendama oma pahameelt seoses USA valitsuse laieneva eelarve defitsiidiga. Hiina näpuviibutus USAle näitab, et koos Hiina majanduse kasvamisega hakkavad maailmas tasapisi muutuma ka võimupositsioonid.

  • Kas see pole seotud värske Obama ja Tiibeti teemaga?
  • Kusjuures lahe on see, et Hiina saab kasvada siis kui USA tema toodetavat kolu ostab ja USA saab seda osta siis kui Hiina T-billi ostab.
  • Citi doesn't need more gov't capital - Parsons
  • Mitte, et läinud sajandi kriiside teemal poleks viimasel ajal piisavalt juba sõna võetud, pakub dshort.com üsna illustratiivset materjali neljast kõige tugevama käpavajutusega karust...


  • February Import Prices m/m -0.2% vs -0.7% consensus, y/y -12.8% vs -13.5% consensus
    January Trade Balance -$36.0 bln vs -$38.0 bln consensus, prior -$39.9 bln
  • Saksamaa DAX +1.49%

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.76%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +2.14%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +2.08%

    Venemaa MICEX +3.34%

    Poola WIG +1.54%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +5.15%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +4.37%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.23%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.75%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.69%

    Tai Set 50 +2.71%

    India Sensex 30 +4.95%

  • Trading the Tricky Bear Market Rally
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/13/2009 8:29 AM EDT

    Hope is nature's veil for hiding truth's nakedness.
    --Alfred Nobel

    One of the most amazing things about the stock market is how quickly we can shift from utter despair to downright euphoria. All the things that were weighing on the minds of investors so heavily a week ago are shoved aside as fear takes hold that they will be left behind as the market charges.

    As is always is the case with the market, the truth is somewhere in the middle. Things probably weren't as bad as investors were concerned about a week ago, and they aren't as good as they feel at the moment. Market players overact on both sides of the equation, and we end up with these big plunges and spikes.

    You can do quite well trading these short-term moves if your timing is right and you are quick on your feet, but if you are looking to build positions with a time frame of weeks or months, the big question still remains about the overall trend. We have had a 10%-12% bounce, but in the context of the overall bear market, it is just a minor blip on the screen.

    The major trend is still down, and there is nothing to indicate that the bear market has ended. Our best hope at this point is that this three-day bounce will develop into a much more significant bear market bounce. There is absolutely no need to even consider the question of whether or not the bear market is ended until we have much better action for a much longer time.

    At this juncture, we certainly have some positives. We rallied nicely off the lows on Tuesday, consolidated a bit on Wednesday and then followed through with another big gain on Thursday. That is a good way to start an uptrend. The biggest hurdle we have is significant overhead resistance. A whole lot of folks are sitting on stocks with big losses, and they will be happy to see if they can reduce them. We also have the flippers who caught this rally, and many, if not most, are not true believers. They will be looking to hit the exits with their gains at some point rather than embrace the idea of a sustained recovery.

    Bear market rallies, like this one we are seeing, can be extremely difficult for prudent investors, because protecting capital has been the top priority for so long, and there is nothing in the charts yet to give great confidence. That doesn't mean we can't aggressively trade this action, but it is still a long way from the conditions that allow us to put our more conservative, longer-term funds to work.

    At this point, the key for the market is to show that there is strong underlying support that will allow this rally to build. The real test of a rally comes on pullbacks when we see how anxious the underinvested folks on the sidelines are to jump in and how aggressive the short-term flippers are to protect gains.

    This bear market has been littered with big rallies that lasted a few days before completely rolling over. This is starting from the lowest level yet and from a point when sentiment was extremely negative. We have better news flow, especially in the financial sector, but there is still likely to be some extremely gloomy economic news on the horizon.

    Let's stick with the short-term trading. In fact, some quick shorting may be the way to go here soon. As for longer-term positions, we still have some work to do on the charts, and we are getting the beginning of a workable foundation, but there is absolutely no reason to trust the idea that the bear market is over.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STEC +28.9%, SWHC +12.2%, NGAS +8.0% (light volume), DNDN +4.7%, HIBB +3.2% (also upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James)... Select financial related names showing continued strength: MI +10.0%, BAC +5.5% (seeks more jumbo mortgages, according to report - Reuters.com), STI +5.3%, HIG +5.2%, LM +5.0%, ZION +4.8%, WFC +3.9%, ING +3.9%, MET +3.5%, PRU +3.1%, HBC +2.9%, MS +2.4%, STT +1.8% (files mixed shelf offering), GS +1.7%, JPM +1.5%, COF +1.4% (discloses it approved a new compensation plan for its named executive officers)... Select oil/gas names trading higher: RIG +2.1%, E +1.8%, COP +1.3% (Cramer makes Positive comments on MadMoney), BP +1.2%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: SLW +4.5%, FCX +3.3%, RTP +3.2%, BHP +2.8%, BBL +2.1%, GOLD +2.1%, AUY +1.9%, MT +1.4%, GFI +1.0%... Select drug related names trading higher: SNY +3.4%, MRK +2.7% (upgraded to Outperform at Bernstein), AZN +2.2%... Select casino names showing early strength: LVS +19.8%, MGM +6.0%, WYNN +1.0%... Other news: APPY +18.4% (to proceed with FDA 510(k) application for AppyScore), HOLX +13.4% (FDA approves 2 HOLX HPV tests), GM +7.8% (still checking), CMO +6.8% (announces that it will pay a first quarter 2009 dividend of $0.56 per common share), GE +2.2% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: FWLT +9.1% (trading higher premarket; hearing upgraded at tier 1 firm), ALU +8.8% (upgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill and upgraded to Outperform at Baird), PALM +8.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), PMCS +5.6% (trading higher premarket; hearing upgraded at tier 1 firm), HAL +4.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), DVN +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ZUMZ -6.0%, ARO -4.5%... M&A news: CMP -6.0% (K+S shelves possible bid for Compass Minerals, report says - DJ)... Select European cmcn related names ticking lower: ERIC -3.4%, NOK -2.2%... Other news: SYT -4.8% (still checking), QGEN -4.5% (still checking), CVTX -2.8% (modestly pulling back from yesterday's 40%+ pop), RBS -2.6% (avoided 500 mln pounds of tax in global deals - Guardian Unlimited)... Analyst comments: NTCT -4.2% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), HP -4.1% (cut to Sell from Neutral by Goldman Sachs- DJ), RIMM -1.2% (initiated with a Sell at ThinkEquity- tgt $30).
  • Eile õhtul õnnestus John Stewartil oma saates Jim Cramerit päris korralikult materdada ja kohati tundus, et Mad Money eestvedajal tuli nutt kurku. Eriti mahlakad intervjuu osad on teine ja kolmas 
  • Juhtusin kuulma päevast Nõmmeraadiot, kus Margus Lepa luges ette kellegi ennustusi, kes esines meil Hiievana nime all. Ei pannud tähele, kas algul ütles ka mehe pärisnime. Jutust selgus, et pani aasta-poolteist tagasi täiesti täppi, ja tõenäoliselt ka lähituleviku :-)
  • Obama Adviser Volcker says US economic problems will "take a long time to work out" - Reuters
  • Erko, "This video has been removed by the user." :))
  • G20 communique to avoid specifics on stimulus - source

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