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Börsipäev 6. mai

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  • Eelturul on USA futuurid ca 1%lisse miinusesse vajunud. Majandusraportitest tuleb täna kell 08.15 ET ADP Employment Change number (ootus -643 000), mis annab indikatsiooni selle kohta, milline võiks olla reedene tööjõuraporti näitaja.

    Tulemuste tabel eileõhtuste tulemuste ja aktsiate reageeringutega uuendatud - link siin. 

  • Goldman arvab, et juuniks on kõik maailma anumad naftat täis.


    Rotterdam, Europe's biggest port, is running out of room for more oil, US reserves are at a 19-year record and tankers are being used as floating storage off Britain's south coast, even though OPEC is reducing production.

    "From a commodities point of view, world trade is appalling and the demand is just not there," said Ahmad Abdallah, commodities analyst at Gavekal, the economics consultancy. "All inventories are rising – they are bursting at their seams."

    Oil prices rose to a five-week high last week above $53 a barrel in line with the recent bull run on the world's equity markets.
    Yet despite an OPEC decision last November to cut output by a record 4.2m barrels a day, a move which began to come into effect in February, the fall in demand has been even more striking.

    Goldman Sachs estimated last week that global storage capacity could be exhausted by June....

    Mr Abdallah said official estimates of oil usage for this year had been based on more optimistic assumptions than economic reality.

    An average of analysts' predictions reckons on a reduction in demand of 1.5m barrels a day for 2009 over last year, while the International Energy Agency is predicting a fall of 2.5m barrels, but an estimate based purely on current economic growth figures would put the overall decline at 3m.

    He said it was a similar story in other commodities, with companies building up inventories while prices were cheap. "I can't see demand picking up for the rest of this year," he said. "Even if it picks up next year it is going to be from a very weak base."

    Goldman Sachs set a price target 10pc lower than at present, at about $45, for July, while Peter Voser, chief financial officer for Royal Dutch Shell, told reporters last week that it was "difficult to see an uptick in the oil or gas price" in the next 12 to 18 months...

    "The further (the oil price) rises, the more sceptical you become," said Mark Pervan, head of commodities research at ANZ. "We are operating in a global recession and oil markets are a proxy for global growth."
  • Hetkel siis tundub, et kõige rohkem lisakapitali vajab stresstesti järgselt Bank of America (BAC) - kokku ca $34 miljardit. Raske öelda, mis oli konsensusootus, sest erinevate analüütikute prognoosid kõikusid $0st $100 miljardini, kuid eelturul on aktsia ca 9% miinuses.

  • April ADP Employment Change -491K vs -645K consensus
    Ja futuurid korralikult plussi.
  • märtsi ADP Employment Change revideeriti ka -708K peale -742K asemel
  • Joel Kukemelk Re: Börsipäev 6. mai 06/05/09 12:46

    Hetkel siis tundub, et kõige rohkem lisakapitali vajab stresstesti järgselt Bank of America (BAC) - kokku ca $34 miljardit. Raske öelda, mis oli konsensusootus, sest erinevate analüütikute prognoosid kõikusid $0st $100 miljardini, kuid eelturul on aktsia ca 9% miinuses.


    hetkel juba BAC ja C üle 2% üleval eelturul

  • Eelturu tulemused nüüdseks tulemuste tabelisse lisatud - suurimateks üllatajateks FIGi võimas müügitulude prognoosi ületamine ning ka XTO oodatust paremad tulemused, mis võiks kannustada ka eile peksa saanud CHK'd.
  • ADP raporti peale on eelturu miinused juba ammu unustatud ning S&P500 avaneb ca +0.8% ning Nasdaq100 +0.5% eilsest kõrgemal. Nafta +2.8% @ $55.4.

    Saksamaa DAX +1.56% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +2.14%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.74%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.04%

    Venemaa MICEX +3.27%

    Poola WIG +1.18%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.46%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.98%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.19%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.59%

    Tai Set 50 +3.67%

    India Sensex 30 -1.47%

  • Don't Worry -- the Bears Will Find an Excuse
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/6/2009 8:19 AM EDT

    Excuses change nothing but make everyone feel better.
    -- Mason Cooley

    The bears are becoming increasingly frustrated lately as the market simply refuses to correct very much. We have had some minor pullbacks, but the uptrend has been extremely persistent and has not given many good opportunities for buyers to accumulate on weakness.

    There is no question that we are technically extended, and that generally leads market players to start looking for an excuse for a correction. A lot of folks make the mistake of thinking that it is the news that drives the market, when actually it is usually the opposite. When the market is technically extended, market players have a much great propensity to seek out something negative to justify taking some profits.

    News used to justify selling may not even be negative if it were to come in a different market context, but market players will use it as an excuse depending on the technical conditions that are developing.

    At this point we have very stubborn upside momentum. The buyers are not backing down, and even though everyone knows we could use a rest it isn't happening because there is such great fear of being let out if the market goes higher. We have had such a tremendous move off the March low and so many folks were skeptical for so long that they want to generate some gains even though they feel late to the party.

    As I've discussed quite a bit lately, momentum just doesn't die simply; it wouldn't be momentum if it didn't persist and keep building. That is the nature of the beast, and it is why so many folks are willing to play it in search of gains.

    Obviously at some point it will slow or come to an end, but market players are going to need some good excuses. Being technically extended will make them more likely to seek out something negative to use as a justification for selling. Maybe it will be the bank stress test news, although that seems extremely well leaked and not too surprising. Maybe it will be unemployment or something else, but they will eventually find something as a reason for selling.

    We have a little softness this morning, but there still isn't any news for the bears to seize upon to shake things up. All they can do at this point is say that things are too optimistic and extended and that we need a rest. It will happen, and there will be a good excuse for it, but the timing will not be easy. I suspect it will be the banks that will lead a correction, but so far the news there has been managed so well that the bears can't seem to find an edge.

    My game plan continues to be to take gains into strength and to make new buys of good charts with solid bases. I'm also carrying a bit of a hedge and will look to increase that as conditions change.

    Good luck and go get 'em.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: APAC +31.1%, ARM +27.0% (also upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), LINC +26.9%, CBM +25.0%, ACOR +17.9%, REXX +16.3% (light volume), MPG +16.1%, AMMD +15.7%, LNC +13.2%, AFAM +12.2%, VOLC +10.8%, PLT +8.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), CRL +8.4%, RSO +8.0%, UDR +7.8%, BIDZ +7.5%, DIS +5.1% (also upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), DSX +4.7%, ANR +3.3%, BX +2.8%, BTI +2.4%, AUY +1.3%, DM +1.3%... M&A news: BORL +17.5% (to be acquired by Micro Focu Int'l plc for $1.00/share), HRAY +12.8% (Chinese investor group raises offer for co - WSJ), SUMT +8.8% (Vista Equity Partners increases its offer to acquire SumTotal Systems to $4.50 per share in cash)... Select gold related names showing strength: GFI +5.1%, AU +4.2%, GG +3.4%, HMY +3.0%, GOLD +2.9%, GLD +1.4%, AAUK +1.2%... Select financials rebounding to premarket highs: IRE +12.8%, FIG +8.3%, AZ +4.2%, BAC +3.0% (BofA faces $35 bln gap - WSJ), WFC +2.6%, C +2.4% (Citi may need $5-10 bln in new capital: Report - NY Times), MS +1.7%... Other news: AVII +25.6% (announces Department of Defense funding to accelerate development of AVI-4658 for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy), CROX +14.1% (still checking), CLF +3.7% and BRCD +3.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NOK +2.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: HBC +5.0% (upgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), IGT +3.3% (added to Conviction Buy list at Goldman- tgt raised to $20 from $11- Reuters), AZO +2.1% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), AEO +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ACAS -23.8%, ALY -15.5%, GRMN -10.4%, HRS -8.3%, CLH -7.6% (light volume), DPTR -7.3%, ALVR -7.2%, FWLT -7.1%, SGY -7.1%, JKHY -4.9%, PBI -3.1%, VCLK -3.0% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Piper Jaffray), AGU -2.9%, ERTS -2.9%, ACIW -1.9% (light volume), CEPH -1.3%, COGT -1.0% (light volume)... Other news: GM -15.1% (discloses information related to talks with Treasury; If the U.S. Treasury Debt Conversion is consummated, the U.S. Treasury would own at least 50% of the aggregate amount of pro forma outstanding GM common stock), SBIB -5.9% (redeems TARP preferred stock and announces $50 mln equity offering), DHI -4.5% (announces intent to offer $400 mln in Convertible Senior Notes), CPT -3.3% (announces a 7.5 mln share common stock offering), SQNM -2.3% (still checking), DOW -1.9% (announces $1.625 Billion Public Common Stock Offering)... Analyst comments: SHG -5.9% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan), ATML -4.6% (downgraded to Neutral at AmTech Research), BCS -4.3% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), ZBRA -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), MVL -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wedbush Morgan), RBS -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), EQIX -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey).
  • Juba liiga überbullishiks kipub asi meedial kätte ära minema - näiteks CNN näitab Dow upticke oma muude saadete ajal juba samamoodi nagu märtsi alguse languse downticke. A hint?
  • Õnnesoovid pangaks saamise puhul. Kas kliendid saavad ka mingi eelise aktsiaemissioonis, kui see tuleb?
  • Long C @ $3.68.
    Ainult $5 bln kapitali vaja? See on nothing!
  • Ah, müüsin kõik ära, ei lähe ahneks.
  • Stresstest ja sellega kaasnenud pidev 'andmete lekitamine' on minu arvates võtnud farsi mõõtmed. Ja ma pole ainus. Üks kommentaar siia RealMoney kolumnistilt Timothy Collinsilt:

    The stress test, the secrecy, and the results are a big joke. The accidental "leaks" to test market reaction, some worse than what the results actually were to create a "not as bad as expected" feeling, which has all been taken as good news. I'm laughing at the rally in Citi (C) shares as they "only" need ANOTHER $5 billion. Fortunately, my good friend stopped drinking coffee, so he can write them a check. First, we were told that everyone needs capital, then no one, then 16, then 10, then 4, then pi, then the square root of my birthday times my wife's age. How or why, we are giving this administration any credit is beyond me. The media has become a puppet, and everyone is enjoying the show, but at what price? My guess...our future economy.

    Lõplike numbrite ilmumisel ootan ise sell the news reaktsiooni.
  • Krt oleks pidanud ikkagi ahnem olema :) Kui turg nii sicko on, siis tuleb kaasa mängida.
  • SKF juba alla 44, alles ta oli 255. Kas tõesti on finants nii TUGEV?, eriti ei tahaks uskuda...
  • Homme saab ka selles osas huvitav olema, et on näha, kui palju nendest "lekkinud" tulemustest siis tõeks osutuvad. Igatahes on WSJ ja Bloomberg olnud igasuguste kuulujuttude levitamise kindlas esirinnas.
  • siin on juba terve tabel, kes vajab kapitali ja kes mitte; http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2009/05/06/stress-test-table-who-needs-capital-who-doesnt/
  • Just, aga artiklite sees on WSJ viimaste nädalate jooksul vähemalt kümnest erinevast stsenaariumist kirjutanud - alustades lisakapitali vajavate pankade erinevast arvust ning lõpetades sellega, kui palju keegi vajab.
  • Red faced IMF fixes east Europe error -- FT

    The International Monetary Fund has corrected an embarrassing error that led to the publication of exaggerated estimates of the external debt levels of crisis-hit eastern European states.

    In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, published in April, the IMF provided key numbers on 38 selected emerging market countries, including their 2009 external debt refinancing needs as a ratio of their foreign exchange reserves.

    But after the numbers for some countries were challenged by central bankers, analysts and journalists, the IMF revised the data and began publishing new figures for the external debt/reserves ratios of some eastern European countries.

    The ratio for the Czech Republic was cut from 236 per cent to 89 per cent and Estonia’s was reduced to 132 per cent from 210 per cent. It is understood the figure for Ukraine is also being cut to 116 per cent from 208 per cent, that Lithuania’s ratio of 425 per cent may also be recalculated and that others may follow..

    The IMF said on Wednesday it would verify its numbers and publish correct figures on its website as soon as they were available. “We regret any confusion that may have arisen as a result of our publication of erroneous figures.”

    The fund added that it was now reviewing “how the errors occurred” and would “amend the IMF’s internal procedures according to the lessons learned”.
  • Cisco Systems beats by $0.05, beats on revs. Reports Q3 (Apr) earnings of $0.30 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.25; revenues fell 16.6% year/year to $8.16 bln vs the $8.07 bln consensus.

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