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Börsipäev 2. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Täna hommikul on eelturg pärast eilset USA võimsat rallit rahulik ja indeksid kauplevad eilsete sulgumistasemete ümber. Eilse ralliga õnnestus S&P500 indeksil päevasisese tipuga 947.77 ära lüüa ka 2009. aasta jooksul seni nähtud kõrgeim tase 943.85 punkti. Viimati oli nii kõrgel indeks 2008. aasta 10. novembril ehk ca 7 kuud tagasi.

    Täna pool tundi pärast turgude avanemist teatatakse Pending Home Sales aprillikuu number, milllel oodatakse 0.5%list kasvu. Kell 21.00 Eesti aja järgi tuleb raport USA autode maikuu müügi kohta - jaanuris müüdi aastase tempo juures 2.9, veebruaris 2.9, märtsis 3.3 ja aprillis 3.2 miljonit autot.
  • Russel 3000 selle aasta vaieldamatu staar on olnud autode rentimise ja liisimisega tegelev Dollar Trihfty Automobile (DTG), mis aasta algusest on tõusnud ca 680% ning märtsi põhjadest 1320%. 


  • Alates tänasest kaupleb General Motors uue sümboli all, milleks on GMGMQ ning börsiks PinkSheet. Seoses sellega pole aktsiaga võimalik teostada tehinguid eelturul. Kauplemine regulaarsel kauplemisajal jätkub tavapäraselt.
  • Lähitulevikus on aktsiat ees ootamas reverse-splitt 1:100.
    Aktsia kaupleb euroopas 0.6 eurol ehk 3.6% kõrgemal eilsest sulgemishinnast.
  • Citigroupi arvates ei oma General Motors'i aktsia enam mingit väärtust ja uueks hinnasihiks määratakse $0:

    Cutting Target to $0, Maintain Sell/Speculative Rating on GM Shares — We
    expect no recovery for existing shareholders through GM’s Chapter 11 process,
    and are therefore lowering our target to $0 from $0.50, which had previously
    assumed a 1% ownership stake per the prior out of court plan.
  • Vähemalt ei ole oodata edasisi hinnasihi langetamisi. Stable outlook.
  • Kui eile teatati, et CSCO asendab GM Dow indeksis siis täna teatati, et DeVry Inc (DV) tuleb GM asemele S&P 500 indeksis. Mõlemad asendused leiavad aset 8 juunil.
  • Madis, mida arvad Imaxi otsusest täiendavalt aktsiaid müüa? Viitaks nagu Imax ikkagi ei jõua järgmine kvartal kasumisse., vaatamata Star Treki ja Öö Muuseumis2 edule. ..või ei kata kasum tagasimakset.
  • romanr, see ei ole takistuseks ettevõttel kasumisse jõudmisel, kuigi EPS loomulikult kannatab. Tasub meenutada ka Pro all toodud hoiatust, et ettevõtte suurim risk on negatiivne omakapital. Seepärast kasutatakse lihtsalt tõusvat aktsia hinda ära, et raha kaasata. Vähendatakse võlgu ja omakapitali miinust ning bilanss muutub tugevamaks. Seega ei usu, et tegemist oleks mingi indikatsiooniga kasumi suhtes; kui kvartali jooksul kasumisse jõutaksegi, on see esialgu veel üsna väike.
  • Saksamaa DAX -0.32% 

    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.55%

    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.25%

    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.03%

    Venemaa MICEX -1.91%

    Poola WIG +1.15%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.27%

    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.64%

    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.11%

    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.10%

    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.16%

    Tai Set 50 -1.14%

    India Sensex 30 +0.23%

  • Keep Your Balance
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/2/2009 8:47 AM EDT

    "Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving"

    -- Albert Einstein
    On Monday, the market experienced exceptionally positive action. We broke out of a trading range, the point gain was big, breadth was excellent and volume heavy. That is how a healthy market is supposed to act.

    It would seem that the proper thing to do is just embrace your inner bull and enjoy the ride higher, but it is never quite that easy. When we have so much celebration of the wonderfulness of it all and so many stocks that are technically extended after a number of big days in a row, it is extremely important that we stay balanced.

    The one great certainty of the market is that it won't go straight up or down, and the easiest way to lose money is to not appreciate that even within a strong trend there will be bumps along the way. There is nothing at all wrong with this market technically other than a surplus of exuberance and some extended charts, so there is no reason to be overly negative. On the other hand, the complacency and the lack of fear suggest that it is dangerous to keep chasing stocks that have already jumped sharply and have not consolidated.

    No trader is totally objective when looking at the market. If you own a stock, you are always going to have some sort of bias as you are looking for the market to move in a certain way. The important thing is to recognize that and consciously try to balance your natural inclination. Too often, people do just the opposite. Rather than look for flaws in their thinking they dismiss anything that contradicts it and seek out only those things that confirm it.

    Having a balanced view of the market is not an easy thing to do because the market itself is so prone to extremes. It rarely acts like a rational person. It will always move higher or lower than you think is reasonable. So while you want to always consider both the bullish and bearish views, you also must remember that you are dealing with crowd psychology, and it is can't be reduced to a mathematical formula.

    Let's appreciate the fact that the market looks pretty good technically, but let's maintain our balance and also appreciate that we are unlikely to go straight up without pause. Don't get carried away in the celebration. Make sure you don't forget to protect positions and take some gains.

    We have a slightly soft open as overseas markets cooled a bit and investors consider a secondary offering from JPMorgan Chase (JPM) . We need some consolidation after the late surge Friday and the strength yesterday, but I suspect the dip buyers will be anxious to do their thing.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NAVR +45.6%, ONAV +8.0%, UNFI +6.4%... M&A news: HLND +30.7% and HPGP +20.3% (to be acquired by affiliates of Harold Hamm; Hiland Partners' unitholders will receive $7.75/common unit they hold and Hiland Holdings' unitholders will receive $2.40/common unit they hold), NTG +12.6% (Cameron to acquire NATCO in all-stock transaction; NTG shareholders to receive 1.185 CAM shares for each NTG share), DDUP +12.0% (EMC proposes to acquire Data Domain for $30/share in cash; this follows NTAP's $25/share stock and cash bid from 5/20)... Select European financials trading higher: AIB +6.7%, IRE +2.5%... Select gold related names showing strength: GOLD +2.7%, HMY +2.2%, AEM +1.3%... Select shippers showing strength boosted by ONAV results: FRO +3.0%, DRYS +2.9%, EXM +2.4%... Other news: CLDA +21.4% (announces positive results from second Ph. 3 trial of vilazodone for depression), CYTK +17.4% (presents clinical data relating to Ispinesib; says Ispinesib appears to demonstrate anti-cancer activity with a similar toxicity profile when compared with prior trials), VLNC +14.0% (announces MOU with Siemens to develop batteries compatible with Siemens' Marine Hybrid Propulsion Systems), CRGN +12.2% (updates CR011-vcMMAE data at ASCO), SAY +8.8% (says its automotive business won't be hit by GM bankruptcy filing - Dow Jones), PARD +7.0% (still checking), GA +5.4% (still checking), ALVR +4.7% (announced it was chosen by Mobitel to provide 802.16e WiMAX services for under-served areas throughout Nigeria), DV +4.7% (GM's place in the S&P 500 will be taken by S&P MidCap 400 constituent DeVry), CAL +4.5% (reports May 2009 operational performance; also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), STM +4.3% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: UFS +10.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), MDZ +8.8% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), ISRG +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Needham), EJ +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), GTI +1.8% (initiated with a Buy at Canaccord), NETL +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Piper).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DAKT -15.4% (light volume), LAYN -11.0% (light volume), LGF -4.6%, ENS -4.2% (light volume), BLUD -4.0%... M&A news: CAM -2.1% (Cameron to acquire NATCO in all-stock transaction; NTG shareholders to receive 1.185 CAM shares for each NTG share)... Select financials showing weakness: BCS -12.0% (Middle East fund selling large stake in Barclays - NY Times), KEY -4.6%, MS -3.0% (announces $2.2 billion public offering of common equity), C -2.7% (Citigroup is halting some payouts - WSJ), CIT -2.6%, DB -2.5%, JPM -2.3% (confirms pricing of 142 mln shares of common stock at $35.25/share), STI -2.2% (prices 108 mln common share offering at $13.00/share), HBC -2.1%, FITB -2.0%, WFC -1.9%, AXP -1.5% (announces $500 mln common stock offering), ABB -1.3%, UBS -1.1%... Select large cap drug names trading lower: NVS -2.9%, GSK -1.8%, AZN -1.8%, SNY -1.0%... Other news: MTZ -9.8% (announces offerings to refinance convertible notes and sell common stock for prior acquisition related shareholders), GM -8.0% (will be removed from the S&P 500 index; also announces preliminary agreement to sell HUMMER), CBL -7.9% (determined to reduce the dividend for the remainder of 2009 to the minimum level required to distribute 100% of the co's estimated taxable income), DCT -6.0% (announces commencement of public offering of 22.5 mln shares of common stock), IRET -5.5% (announces public offering of 3 mln common shares of beneficial interest), ICON -4.9% (announces follow-on equity offering of 9.2 mln shares and selling stockholders will offer 800,000 shares), BKD -4.8% (announces public offering of $150 mln of common stock), RZ -3.5% (announced that it has filed a universal shelf registration of $150 mln in mixed securities), IO -3.3% (announces a private placement offering of 18.5 mln shares of common stock priced at $2.20/share), IMAX -3.1% (prices 9.8 mln common share offering at $7.15/share), ERIC -2.5% (still checking for anything specific), QSFT -2.4% (announces intent to commence modified dutch auction to repurchase 10.715 mln shares of its common stock)... Analyst comments: MTH -4.4% (downgraded to Sell at UBS), JNPR -4.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), CHL -4.0% (removed from Conviction Buy List by Goldman- DJ), TECD -2.1% (resumed with a Sell at Goldman- Reuters), MICC -2.0% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), MTL -1.3% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley).
  • April Pending Home Sales M/M +6.7% vs +0.5% consensus, prior +3.2%

    Positiivsed numbrid - indeksid üle 1% plussis.
  • Pending home sales rose for the third consecutive month, jumping 6.7% in April M/M and rising 3.2% Y/Y. NAR says buyers are responding to very favorable market conditions, and expects "greater activity in the months ahead."

    kohalik investor pobiseb selle peale habemesse hillarsanderludviq ja künnab põldu edasi. intress 0,75% eurohoiusel.
  • :)
    See on jah kurb, kuidas valdav osa investore eestis balti maadest, venemaast ja heal mõnest fondist kaugemale ei suuda kiigata. Vaatab ikka otse ette maha....
  • Apple'i 3G iPhone peaks Hiinasse jõudma juba juulikuus. Link siin. 

  • Varem Merrill Lynch'is töötanud, kuid nüüd Gluskin Sheffis leiba teeniv David Rosenberg taas mõtteid avaldamas. Jutt on üsna pikk, seega kopeerin vaid mõned mahlakamad lõigud:

    "As everyone gazes at the 200-day moving average being taken out for the first time in 18 months, we are still wondering (see below) what the omen was yesterday from the fact that the VIX index, for the first time in at least seven years, rose alongside a 2%+ performance in the S&P 500 (normally, the VIX index declines between 10% and 20% on such a rally)."

    "Emerging markets in general can hardly be described as cheap as they trade at 43x earnings, but nothing really stands out as being undervalued right now."

    "Inflation expectations are getting way ahead of themselves — the 5-year/5-year breakeven levels in the TIPS market are now at 2.4% (above the average of the past five years — you would think we’d be staring at a fully employed economy right in the face)."

    "The U.K. gets its credit outlook downgraded, and its currency soars and its bond market vastly outperforms Treasuries. Welcome to silly season. The 2s-10s curve is back at 275bps, a record steepness, and never before has a curve this steep been sustainable — it will flatten, the question is how."

    "The futures market, without perhaps understanding what history teaches us about the stance of monetary policy following a credit collapse, which is to keep rates to the floor for, oh, about a decade, has gone ahead and priced in no fewer than three Fed rate hikes over the next 12 months. Then again, it’s the same futures strip that started to price out the easing cycle in late 2007 and price in Fed tightening this time last year. This is what opportunities are made of."
  • Madis, kus seda Rosenbergi täismahus näha saaks?
  • jim, kasutasin interneti suurepäraseid võimalusi ja tegin tsikibriki.
  • Ford Motor (F):during May sales conference call, says average transaction price in May was "impressive, very strong"
    Andis turule üsna tugeva tõuke ja indeksid liiguvad ülespoole.
  • GM says US sales down 29.6% in May -> Street consensus is -37% (GMGMQ.PK)
    Toyota Motor (T): Toyota Motor Sales, U.S.A., reported that May vehicle sales increased 20.6% compared to April 2009
  • Mõningate analüütikute arvamused S&P500 indeksi õiglasest väärtusest aasta lõpuks.

    BULL - June 1: Deutsche Bank US equity analyst Binky Chadha forecasts S&P 500 at 1060 by 2009 year-end, citing improving corporate profit margins. He said aggregate profit margins for S&P 500 “remains well below the average of the last few years, implying considerable potential upside over the medium term.”
    BULL - June 1: JP Morgan Chase analyst Thomas Lee forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.
    BULL - June 1: Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst David Bianco forecasts 2009 year-end S&P 500 index at 1100.
    BEAR - May 30: Morgan Stanley equity analyst Jason Todd says sell this S&P 500 rally.

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