Börsipäev 24. juuli

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eilsed Microsofti (MSFT) ja Amazoni (AMZN) tulemused viisid mõlemad aktsiad sügavasse miinusesse. MSFT kukkus regulaarse kauplemisaja 3% plussist järelturul 7% miinusesse, AMZN langes ligi 6% plussist 7% miinusesse. Tehnoloogiast võib veel ära nimetada Broadcomi (BRCM), mis samuti ootustele alla jäi. Ehkki kolmanda kvartali osas tõsteti prognoose, vajus aktsia järelturul 5% miinusesse.

    Varahommikul on oma tulemused avaldanud veel Ericsson (ERIC):

    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of SEK0.26 per share, excludes items, SEK0.58 worse than the First Call consensus of SEK0.84; revenues fell 13.4% year/year to SEK52.1 bln vs the SEK50.58 bln consensus. Network sales were down year-over-year currency adjusted, reflecting the present market environment. The continued strong acceleration of mobile data traffic is leading to high growth in sales of WCDMA and transmission as well as upgrades of IP networks. Meanwhile, GSM buildouts, primarily ongoing in emerging markets, have slowed and offset sales growth in other areas.

    Täna eriti olulisi tulemuseavaldajaid pole, samuti on päev vaene makroandmete osas. Võib arvata, et tehnoloogia ja ilmselt kogu turg saab tänase suuna eilsetest tulemustest

  • Pole sellel tehnoloogiasektoril häda midagi. Ikkagi ainus sektor USAs, mida pole "effectively nationalized." :-D
  • Teine pluss on veel: bilansid on raha täis. Aga mis teha, turg loodab tulusid ja kasumit ka näha.
  • Eilse olemasolevate majade müügistatistika järel on pilt USA kinnisvaraturul järgmine (annualiseeritud):

    ex home sales

                   new home sales

  • Cramer, kes on viimasel ajal väga positiivseks muutunud, arvab, et muretsemiseks ei ole põhjust :)

    I love the instabear move. I am hearing from 20 guys about the coming bloodbath... It will be a bubble bath.
  • Eilses börsipäevas tõi Alari välja, kuidas investorid peavad austama momentumi.

    Hedge-fonde juhtiv AQR (loodud endiste Goldman Sachsi Quantitativ Research Groupi töötajate poolt) avaldas äsja huvitava uurimuse (loe siit: The Case for Momentum Investing), miks momentum töötab (investorid reageerivad aeglaselt informatsioonile & osad turuosalised usuvad, et varasem aktsia hinnatõus põhineb fundamentaalidel etc) & kuidas selle abil on võimalik tootlust tõsta (momentumiga tuleb eelkõige arvestada kasvuaktsiatesse investeerimisel & value-investing strateegia korral on võimalik momentumi abil tulusid tõsta perioodidel, kui väärtus on tagaplaanil). Huvitav lugemine kõigile, kes ei usu efektiivse turu teooriasse.

  • Tööstustoodangu 16 aasta kiireim kasv ning tootmistellimuste kolmandat kuud kestnud paranemine tõstis Saksa ärikliimat peegeldava IFO indeksi juulis neljandat kuud järjest 87.3 punktile (juunis 85.9) ning lüües analüütikute 86.5 punktilist ootust. Eurotsooni juulikuu PMI näitas samuti prognoositust rõõmsamat numbrit, ronides juuni 44.6 punktilt 46.8 punktile (oodati 45.3) Usk Saksamaa ning terve euroala majanduse kiire tervenemise suhtes viis esimesel tunnil õrnas miinuses kaubelnud Euroopa indeksid pooleprotsendisesse plussi. 

    Ifo indeks

  • G7 riigid alustavad vaikselt oma teise kvartali SKT näitajate avaldamist ning Suurbritannia tegi täna avakäigu. Esialgne -0.8%-line kukkumine võrreldes esimese kvartaliga osutus pea kolm korda hullemaks võrreldes mediaanootusega (-0.3%).
  • Solar sektoris on täna oodata tõsist rallit – nii SunPower (SPWRA) kui ka MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) avaldasid eile analüütikute ootusi suurelt löönud tulemused/prognoosid. Kui WFR oli viimasel ajal palju positiivseid kommentaare analüütikutelt saanud ja tugevad prognoosid olid pigem oodatud, siis SPWRA numbrid olid palju üllatavamad:

    Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.24 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.10 better than the First Call consensus of $0.14; revenues rose 39.4% year/year to $298 mln vs the $263.3 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY09, sees EPS of $1.15-1.60 vs. $0.96 consensus; sees FY09 revs of $1.35-1.7 bln vs. $1.32 bln consensus.

    SunPower’i aktsia kerkis järelturul tervelt 19% võrra, tõmmates kaasa terve tööstusharu: A few names ticking higher after hours include: ENER +7.6%, AKNS +6.4%, STP +6.1%, SOLF +3.8%, ESLR +3.7%, FSLR +3.6%, TSL +3.6%, SOL +3.5%, CSIQ +3.1%, YGE +2.8%, LDK +2.5%, JASO +2.3%.
  • Goldman Sachs on peale tulemusi tõstnud Philip Morrise (PM) hinnasihti varasema $51 pealt $54-ni.

    We have five key takeaways from 2Q09 results that support our Buy rating. (1) We see healthy pricing supporting profit growth into 2H09 due to rational competitors, cigarette’s relative affordability in emerging markets, and favorable global excisetax structures versus the past. (2) Ongoing cost savings continue to provide profit flexibility and should continue to drive margin improvements. (3) Improvement in forex volatility improves earnings visibility and should be a limited headwind by 4Q09. (4) Healthy free cash flow generation should continue to provide PM opportunities to enhance shareholder value going forward through acquisitions and share repurchases. (5) PM still offers one the best sustainable growth profiles in consumer staples, as we see healthy 12%-13%earnings growth over the next several years.

  • Goldman Sachs’i strateegid on Euroopa turgude suhtes väga optimistlikud:

    We remain positive on the market and revise up our DJ Stoxx net income (pre-exceptionals) forecasts to a 19% fall in 2009, and a 34% rise in 2010 (-24% and 28% ex Financials, respectively). (FT link)

    Konsensus prognoosib Euroopa ettevõtetele 2009. aastal 21% kasumilangust. Eriti optimistlik on Goldman võrreldes konsensusega aga järgmise aasta kasumikasvu suhtes (GS +34% vs konsensuse +25%). Kõrgemate ootuste taga on kolm põhjust (kas siiski piisavad?):

    1) Finantssektori kasumid on oodatust paremad

    2) Kulude kokkuhoid on olnud väga korralik

    3) Euroala on tihedalt seotud kiirelt taastuvate arenevate turgudega (48% euroala ekspordist läheb arenevatele turgudele)

    & EPS on korralikult kukkunud:

    DJ Stoxx indeksi target jääb siiski muutmata:

    Our end-year target of 235 for DJ Stoxx remains unchanged, as we expected investors to ‘pre-pay’ for a large part of the early recovery that we are now seeing more evidence of in earnings; we expect a 20% return over the next 12 months.


  • Look for a Pullback to Meet Underlying Support
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    7/24/2009 8:35 AM EDT

    Think enough and you won't know anything.
    -- Kenneth Patchen

    After a steady move higher for 10 days, the major indices exploded even higher on Thursday. Volume was very heavy and breadth very strong as we hit the highest levels since fall of last year.

    This morning we have a slew of disappointing earnings reports from the likes of Microsoft (MSFT) , Amazon (AMZN) , American Express (AXP) , Juniper (JNPR) , Riverbed (RVBD) , Deckers Outdoor (DECK) , Broadcom (BRCM) , Capital One (COF) and a number of others. Many of these stocks have run up big into their reports, so a "sell the news" reaction isn't that surprising, but the bigger question is whether we might have had what is known as a "blow-off top." A blow-off top is a final flurry of panic buying that occurs on top of an already big move and results in an exhaustion of overly exuberant bulls.

    While the market is certainly due for a rest and needs some consolidation quite badly, I am not looking for a complete and total reversal and a move straight back down. One of the characteristics of very strong momentum is that it doesn't die easily. When buyers are surprised by a very quick and big move in the market, it tends to provide good underlying support and prevents the market from falling too fast. Major reversals take time to play out. The first few dips are almost always aggressively bought, but as more dips occur, there is less interest and cracks eventually start to occur. That is when a reversal starts to pick up steam.

    This market hasn't had any dips until this morning for more than 10 days. Legions of frustrated and underinvested bulls are sitting on the sidelines -- they haven't been able to jump aboard this speeding train of a market. They are going to provide some good underlying support for a while. I'm already hearing how some are anxious to jump in and buy AMZN or Baidu (BIDU) on a pullback.

    These past 10 days or so have been extremely frustrating for many traders, including me. We went from the brink of a breakdown to a parabolic rise in the blink of an eye, and we never had a very good technical setup that allowed much accumulation. We went from oversold to overbought in a straight line with no basing or consolidation along the way.

    It is extremely unproductive to complain about it; we need to focus on how to profit going forward. I will be looking for some pullbacks and consolidations. They aren't going to happen in one day, but at least we have some cooling off this morning

    A tremendous amount of money has been sitting on the sidelines and watching this run over the past 10 days, and those players are going to be looking hard for some entry points. I suspect that will keep a pullback relatively mild.

    It is not going to be easy to find a lot of great chart setups here unless you are willing to buy things that are extended. That has obviously worked for the past week, but it is not without some major risks.

    We are going to have a soft open, but it isn't nearly as bad as the indications last night. We should see plenty of dip-buyers swimming under the surface, so don't look for us to give back very much of the recent move very quickly.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ALGN +21.6%, SPWRA +16.7% (also upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital and upgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), PWER +13.3%, HWAY +6.8% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T Capital Mkts), JJSF +6.7%, SEPR +6.2%, AMSG +6.0%, CNW +5.6% (also upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), LDK +5.5%, CA +4.6%, CB +4.5% (also upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), IR +3.8% (light volume), BDK +3.6%, SGEN +3.3%, IBKR +3.1%, IPCR +2.4%, BLUD +2.3%, ESIO +1.7% (light volume), , RFMD +1.6%, VOD +1.5% (also signals interest in supplying iPhone for UK - Guardian Unlimited)... Select solar names showing strength following SPWRA earnings and LDK guidance: ENER +6.8%, ESLR +6.0%, STP +5.7% (Suntech Power and China Energy Conservation Investment partner to develop solar projects), SOLF +4.8%, FSLR +4.4%, SOL +3.5%, AKNS +3.2%, YGE +2.8%, TSL +2.6%, CSIQ +2.4%, JASO +2.3%, CSUN +1.6% (says Q2 solar cell shipments slightly exceeded the previously announced guidance of 35MW to 40MW)... Select European financials ticking higher: ING +2.7%, RBS +2.7% (Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds bow to Brussels - FT), UBS +2.6%, CS +2.5%, AIB +2.5%, DB +1.5%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: RTP +2.3%, MT +1.9%... Other news: RPRX +5.0% (modestly rebounding after yesterday's 2 point drop), TTM +4.6% (still checking), YHOO +2.8% (Yahoo Board scheduled to confer Thursday about a Microsoft search deal, according to sources - WSJ)... Analyst comments: RSH +5.6% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital and upgraded to Outperform at RBC), ETFC +1.4% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: RVBD -17.5%, NTCT -12.7%, DECK -11.9% (also downgraded to Underweight at Thomas Weisel), SIMG -11.6%, MSFT -7.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), ERIC -7.6%, DDR -6.4%, BRCM -5.6% (also downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at JMP Securities), AMZN -5.2% (also downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), AXP -4.6%, JNPR -4.3%, SYT -4.1% (light volume), WGOV -4.0%, MSCC -3.9%, COF -3.5%, CAKE -3.2% (also downgraded to Neutral at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), WFR -3.1% (also downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer and downgraded to Underperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), BNI -3.0%, ACI -2.8%, BIDU -2.6%, RMBS -2.6%, INFA -2.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), STAR -2.3%, SLB -1.8%, CENX -1.6%, KLAC -1.5%, NFLX -1.0% (also downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer and downgraded to Neutral at Wedbush Morgan)... Select tech/computer related names showing weakness: DELL -2.0%, CSCO -1.6%, ORCL -1.4%, HPQ -1.2%... Other news: RIGL -26.5% (announced R788 in TASKi3 clinical trial does not meet efficacy endpoints in RA patients who had previously failed biologic therapies - results incongruent), ANPI -9.4% (files for a $250 mln mixed shelf offering), CYCC -6.9% (to raise up to $5.9 million in registered direct offering), FCS -6.0% (still checking), PALM -4.7% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: CYOU -2.9% (downgraded to Hold at Roth Capital), RX -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform at Baird and downgraded to Mkt Weight at Thomas Weisel), NOC -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen and downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill),), SCHW -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), POT -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at JPMorgan).
  • Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0.1%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.2%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.5%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.8%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.5%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.7%
    Poola WIG +1.7%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.5%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.8%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.3%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.1%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq  +0.4%
    Tai Set 50 +0.3%
    India Sensex 30 +1.0%

  • Microsoft on juba pea 10% miinuses, Amazoni langus -8.5%.
  • Uskumatu, kui kiiresti on turgudelt hirm täielikult kadunud. Iga langust ostetakse hooga üles, mille ehtsaks näiteks AXP eilne ja täna päevaalguse korralik langus juba +1.3% üles ostetud. Siiski ei usu, et siit + päeva välja pingutatakse, kuigi hetkel tõusutempo üsna hoogne. Päeva alguses müügisurve all vaevlenud sektorid on samuti korralikult põrganud: XHB, XLF/RKH, XLB, IYR, TRAN, XLE/OIH,SMH. Hetkel peaks oluliseks S&P 975 taset, kui see läbi sõidetakse siis võimalus ka kõrgemale minna.
  • aga Alari, kas pole see siis hea? LHVl kah ju business rasvasem, kui turud tõusevad :)

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