Börsipäev 11. august - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 11. august

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Aktsiaturud ei taha oma viimastel kuudel leitud optimismist loobuda ning eile õhtul liiguti päeva lõpuks ikkagi päeva kõrgeimate tasemete ligidale. Samas, siinkohal tahaks ära märkida eilse ebatavapäraselt madala käibe - turud on praegu seoses paljude inimeste puhkustega Wall Streetil tavapärasest õhemad ja kiired liikumised mõlemas suunas võivad tulla seetõttu ka kergemini.

    Täna veel olulisi majandusraporteid tulemas ei ole. Tund aega enne turgu avaldatakse 2. kvartali tootlikkuse tõusu näitaja (ootus +5.5%) ja tööjõukulude kasvu muutus (ootus -2.5%). Homme saame juba aga Föderaalreservi kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise suurendamisele/vähendamisele/samaks jätmisele kaasa elada. Intressimäärade muutmist enne kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise programmide peatamist Fedilt veel ei oodata.
  • Kui 2009. aasta alguses võis Barclay (BARC.L) aktsiat Londoni börsilt osta 47 penni eest, siis täna tuleb välja käia 358 penni. Ometi on aktsiat taas katma hakkavad Morgan Stanley analüütikud leidnud täna hommikul, et aktsia õiglane väärtus võiks olla tänasest 358 pennilisest hinnast ca 17% kõrgem ehk 420 penni ning aktsia katmist jätkatakse overweight soovitusega. Barclay ADRid kauplevad ka USA börsil sümboli BCS all. 

  • Muidugi huvitav, aga miks siis BCS eelturul miinuses on? Vara veel osta.
  • BCSi eelturu miinus tuleneb Londoni börsil BARC.Li hetkel 0.7%lisest miinusest. Ja kuna midagi uut väga ei öelda, vaid et lihtsalt 're-rating', siis sellised upgreidid on saamas non-eventiks. Meenutab eelmise nädala neljapäeva hommikust DB-poolset hinnasihi kergitamist JPMile - analüüs tähelepanu ei saanud ja ka tollal lõpetas aktsia päeva miinuses...
  • See oli ka ainuke JPM-i miinuspäev viimase 8 päeva jooksul. Kui siit saaks paralleeeli vedada JPM-i ja BCS-i vahel siis võiks panustada küll.
  • CIT Group Inc. (eelturul on aktsia 4.05% miinuses) delayed filing its quarterly report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, saying it couldn't meet the deadline "without unreasonable effort and expense" during its restructuring.The struggling commercial lender, which has been facing a worsening liquidity crisis as its customers drew down credit lines amid fears they might disappear, has been working in recent weeks to avoid a bankruptcy.CIT reiterated its expectation for a second-quarter loss of more than $1.5 billion, which includes a $2.1 billion loss from discontinued operations related to the disposal of its home-lending business.It also reiterated that the credit-market stress, operating losses, credit-rating downgrades, and regulatory and cash restrictions have left "substantial doubt" about its ability to continue as a going concern.CIT plans to file its quarterly report by Monday.

  • Q2 Nonfarm Productivity- prelim +6.4% vs +5.5% consensus, prior +0.3%
    Q2 Unit Labor Costs- prelim -5.8% vs -2.5% consensus, prior -2.7%
  • USA turud on päeva alustamas ca 0.5%lise miinusega.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -1.12%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.54%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.58%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.19%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -1.61%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.19%
    Poola WIG -1.01%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.58%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng  +0.69%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine)  +0.46%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine)  +0.83%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq  +0.55%
    Tai Set 50  -0.19%
    India Sensex 30 +0.43%

  • The Action Is King
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    8/11/2009 8:58 AM EDT

    For after all, the best thing one can do when it's raining is to let it rain.
    -- Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

    Although the pace of the market advance has slowed over the past week, a tremendous number of folks are looking for a market pullback. In many cases, it is more hope than analysis supporting the view, but lately even the bulls have been looking for the market to rest.

    The problem for the folks who are looking for a pullback is that the market is slowly working off some of its froth by moving sideways. Overbought markets can become less overbought by pulling back or by running in place for a while.

    Given how many folks are anxious to buy on a dip, it shouldn't be too surprising that we simply hold steady. Technically, that isn't all bad. It will lead to better charts as we consolidate and develop some bases, but they will be high-level bases and therefore carry more risk.

    The major dilemma of this market for many market players is that they just can't reconcile the market action with their views and experiences with the economy. There has been a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, and it makes it very hard for many market players to embrace this market even though it obviously is acting very well.

    Wall Street and Main Street often disagree, large because of the inclination of Wall Street to look ahead and focus primarily on the stream of earnings from major corporations. Main Street is looking at a wide variety of other things like unemployment and real estate, and isn't as efficient a discounting mechanism because an emotional component often comes into play with the populist view.

    Given how far and how fast this market has moved and the inclination to be skeptical about the economic recovery, it is very easy to doubt this market. The important thing is that you realize what you are fighting against. In trading, often the best approach is to not to overthink things, but rather to simply accept what is happening and try the best you can to embrace them. This market is simply not correcting much right now, and there is no arguing over that fact. Embrace that fact and you'll be better off.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RWC +56.7% (also awarded order from the Department of Defense totaling $1.8 million for new P25 KNG Products), SDTH +18.5%, SEED +15.9%, AGM +15.0%, TXIC +14.6%, LGF +14.6%, BPI +8.6%, WAVX +7.4% (light volume), QGEN +6.9%, ARRY +5.6% (also reports positive results of its oral glucokinase activator in type 2 diabetes patients), QSFT +5.3%, MR +4.6%, KONG +4.3%, DGI +1.6%, FLR +0.7% (also upgraded to Buy at Wunderlich)... Other news: AVNR +73.5% (announces Positive Phase III Study Results for Zenvia), ANPI +23.2% (announces Cook Medical, a license holder of Angiotech's paclitaxel technology, reported CE Mark approval and limited commercial launch of the Zilver PTX Drug-Eluting Peripheral Stent in Europe), ANDS +17.6% (says ANA773 demonstrates significant antiviral response in early clinical trial in Hepatitis C patient), BEXP +17.3% (announces ~2,154 BOEPD Bakken Well; also upgraded to Overweight at Weisel), WEN +6.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ONTY +5.3% (still checking), TLAB +1.7% ( to repurchase up to $200 mln in common shares)... Analyst comments: ELON +9.2% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper Jaffray), HGSI +7.6% (target raised to $30 at Leerink Swann), KFN +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital), BTU +2.0% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman - Reuters), ANR +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at BMO), KR +1.7% (initiated with Buy at Deutsche), DEO +1.4% and AIXG +1.1% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JAV -26.5% (also reports Ereska Phase III trial results in postoperative orthopedic pain), RINO -17.6%, BIDZ -17.5%, WH -15.4%, CHNG -13.7%, MTXX -13.1%, ZOLT -12.7% (light volume), NNI -11.6%, FRPT -11.1%, PRXL -9.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), CPST -9.1%, FEED -6.1%, CRTX -6.0%, DTSI -5.7% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform at Barrington Research), CLNE -5.0%, MDR -3.8%, NUAN -3.7%, PETD -3.7% (also announces a 3.75 mln share common stock offering), ETP -3.6% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Morgan Keegan)... Select European financials ticking lower: LYG -4.8%, RBS -4.7%, HBC -1.3%, BCS -1.1%... Other news: SGEN -9.2% (announces proposed public offering of 9 mln shares of common stock), RST -7.7% (announces filing of registration statement for public offering of common stock of 4,085,000 shares), PSB -6.9% (announces 2,500,000 share proposed offering of common stock), HPT -6.6% (announces that it has commenced a 5 mln share common stock offering), SKT -5.5% (announces that it commenced a 3 mln share common stock offering), MEA -5.2% (announces sales of 6 mln shares of its common stock at $4.18 for ~$25 mln in proceeds), SPH -5.2% (announces public offering of 2.2 mln common units), AGNC -4.7% (commences public offering of 3.25 mln of common stock), BWP -4.2% (announces plans to offer 7 mln common units), BG -3.9% (commenced a 10 mln share common stock offering), S -3.5% (announces a $1.3 bln senior notes offering), FRT -2.7% (announces that it intends to raise $90 mln in equity through the issuance of new common shares of beneficial interest in an underwritten public offering pursuant to its effective shelf), RIMM -1.5% (still checking for anything specific)... Analyst comments: MBI -10.9% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), AEG -3.8% (downgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse), DYN -3.6% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche), YUM -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS).
  • Kuidas arvate turgu reaktsiooni tänase FED ja Joeli poolt mainitud andmed mõjuvad?
  • renessanss, Föderaalreservi otsus intressimäära ja kvantitatiivse lõdvendamise programmi suuruse osas tuleb kolmapäeval kell 21.15, mitte täna.
  • June Wholesale Inventories -1.7% vs -0.9% consensus, prior -1.2% revised from -0.8%
  • Rochdale laidab pangandussektori valuatsioone, ootab korrektsiooni:

    Rochdale Securities' Richard Bove says fundamentals for banking industry have not improved as yet - Reuters. Rochdale Securities' Richard Bove says bank stocks are trading on "fumes," recommends taking some short-term profit; analyst Bove expects a short-term pullback in bank stock prices; says recent rise driven by 'change in psychology,' not reality

  • Kui eile langetas S&P Eesti ja Läti reitingut, siis täna on jälgimisnimekirja pandud Leedu. RealMoney all on Marc Chandler taas Baltikumi kommenteerimas ning teiselt poolt lompi antava arvamuse kohaselt pole Eestil lootust ka aastal 2013 euroga liituda, rääkimata aastast 2011. Nüüd aga küsimus - mis saab siis, kui Eesti suudab ikkagi enne 2013. aastat euroga liituda - välisinvestorid pole selleks igaljuhul valmis.

    Marc Chandler
    S&P Puts Lithuania on Watch for Likely Downgrade
    8/11/2009 10:50 AM EDT

    S&P today put Lithuania's BBB rating on CreditWatch with negative implications. This comes a day after it downgraded both Latvia and Estonia by one notch, so the only surprise to us is that it's waiting another month or so to make a move on Lithuania.

    But make no mistake, a downgrade is going to come. GDP contracted 22.4% year over year in the second quarter, worse than Latvia (down 19.6% year over year); Estonia reports second-quarter GDP on Wednesday, and the market is expecting -18.3% year over year. I see eventual junk status (below BBB-minus) for all three.

    Right now, Latvia is rated junk at BB, while Estonia remains an astonishingly high A-minus. S&P forecast that Lithuania's budget gap is likely to exceed 8% of GDP and said it undermines chances for euro adoption within the next five years.

    I am not aware of S&P's projected timetable, but note that Fitch earlier this year put forward the following expected timetable for euro adoption: 2015 for Bulgaria and Romania, 2014 for the Czech Republic, Hungary and Latvia, and 2013 for Estonia, Lithuania and Poland. I think all of these are too optimistic, given the breadth and depth of this current downturn, and I stress again that with the euro zone economy likely to remain much weaker than the U.S., Eastern Europe will have a tougher time bouncing back.
  • 3-year Auction Results: Bid/Cover 2.89x (4 auction avg 2.59x); Yield 1.78% (1.791% expected); Indirect Bidders 62.3% (4 auction avg 43%)
  • Nonii, oligi juba aeg dipbuyeritel välja ilmuda, tervelt 1% saab ju soodsamalt! Soodusmüük, hullud päevad ja happy hour kõik ühekorraga.Ostad 99 aktsiat, saad 1 tasuta! TASUTA!
  • Marketwatchi esilugu on üsna karune
  • Jätkame karude argumendiga - kaubavedude järele nõudlust indikeeriv Baltic Dry Index on kukkunud üheksandat päeva järjest. Juuni tippudest on langust kogunenud juba ca 40% jagu.

  • Labor Dept plans to correct errors in 2Q Productivity Report - DJ
  • U.S. economy has bottomed, George Soros says - Reuters.com
    Reuters.com reports the U.S. economy has hit bottom and the current quarter will see positive growth due to the government's stimulus spending, billionaire financier George Soros said. "I think it (the stimulus) has made a difference, the economy has actually bottomed and I think we are facing a positive quarter, and I think that is largely due to the stimulus," he said in an interview with Reuters Television in New York. Soros said he did not believe the economy needed more stimulus money, despite calls for a second round of spending.
  • Ehk Soroselt ei midagi uut, mida turg juba ei teaks... Samal ajal tundub, et näeme ehk üle pika aja turult päeva lõppu, mida ei ilmestagi viimase tunni ostuhullus.
  • ~7 punkti S&P 500 puhul viimase 2.5 tunniga üles liikuda pea ilma igasuguse müügihuvita ilmestab siiski jätkuvalt kindlat veendumust päevalõpu spurdist. Kuid ootaks täna 5-10 minutit enne sulgumist korralikku müüki.

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