Börsipäev 30. november - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 30. november

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  • Käes on novembrikuu viimane päev ning jõulukuu on ukse ees. Möödunud nädala lõpus lahvatanud Dubai Worldi võlaprobleemidele on nädalavahetusel Araabia Ühendemiraadid vastanud omapoolse lubadusega pakkuda pankadele vajalikku likviidsust, lootes välistada igasuguse jooksu pankadele - üks lugu ka Bloombergilt. 

    USAst tuleb täna üksnes üks makroraport - novembrikuu Chicago PMI. Ootuseks on 53 punkti, mis on oktoobrikuu 54.2 punktisest näidust pisut vähem.

  • USA dollar on nädalavahetusega euro vastu pool protsenti nõrgenenud ning kaupleb tasemel €1=$1.5055. Nõrk dollar aitab eelturul USA aktsiaturgude futuure ning S&P500 kaupleb reedega võrreldes 0.6% kõrgemal, Nasdaq100 +0.8%.
  • Morgan Stanley on päris pikalt kommenteerimas Tänupüha-järgset pühade müüki ning kokkuvõttes ollakse tulemustega rahul, öeldes, et kõrged ootused on suudetud ka täita. Kiidetakse elektroonika (PC, laptop, telefonid, LCD-telerid) müüki. Mõned lõigud Morgan Stanley analüüsist:

    November 29 – Black Friday sales grew slightly compared to 2008, according to the Wall Street Journal. The publication cited data from ShopperTrak, which noted a 0.5% Y/Y growth in store sales, and Coremetrics saw the average online order grow 35% vs. 2008. Separately, comScore reported that Black Friday online retail sales grew 11% vs. last year, while online sales in the first 27 days of Nov was 3% higher than 2008.

    Our electronics store checks over Thanksgiving weekend suggest traffic is flat to up from a year ago, while promotions were slightly less aggressive overall. Promotions focused on notebooks and TVs this past weekend, and handset traffic also appeared strong. We saw limited quantity “door buster” promotions for notebooks and netbooks, around $400 and $200 respectively, to attract early shoppers, which quickly sold out. While notebook pricing was not as aggressive as last year, mix shift throughout the year has pulled average pricing to the sub-$600 level. HP and Asus showed strong shelf presence at the stores we

    Apple stores continued to attract strong foot traffic, similar to the last few years. Anecdotally, Apple resellers, such as Best Buy, also saw solid Apple demand and some resellers offered slightly better discounts than the Apple stores.

    In the TV category, Samsung garnered the most promotional "mindshare", trailed by Sony and several other Japanese brands. In smartphones, Motorola’s Droid and Apple’s iPhone did not see special discounts, though several retailers had promotions for Palm’s Pre and Pixi. There was limited interest in printers. HP continued to own the most shelf space, similar to last year. With better traffic and less aggressive discounting, this holiday season appears to be tracking in-line with strong expectations for computers / electronics
  • Siin veel FT & WSJ kommentaarid mustale reedele.

    The retail industry group said overall spending for the weekend was up only 0.5 per cent at $41.2bn (FT ).

    ...average amount online shoppers spent on Black Friday rose 35% as shoppers spent roughly $170.19 an order—up from $126.04 last year. (WSJ) 

  • India majanduskasv valmistas investoritele positiivse üllatuse - 3Q SKP kasv oli +7.9% yoy vs Bloombergi küsitluse järgi oodatud +6.3% kasv.
  • Analüütikud on jätkuvalt positiivsed eelkõige arenevate turgude suhtes:

    The cyclical recovery is set to continue through 2010, providing additional support for equity markets, UBS AG strategists wrote in a report. 

    “Our most preferred sectors are technology, consumer staples, and energy,” strategists including Jeffrey Palma wrote in a report dated today. ‘Meanwhile, our least preferred are consumer discretionary, telcos, and industrials.’’ UBS said regionally, it prefers emerging markets, is “neutral” U.S. and Europe, and is “underweight” Japan. 

    “Our analysis makes us surprisingly positive on Asian markets for 2010,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts led by Timothy Moe wrote in a report. “The growth in emerging-market Asia should attract inflows from low-growth developed markets, providing an uplift to valuations.” (allikas: bloomberg)

  • Lõtv monetaarpoliitika ja taastuv majanduskasv hakkavad vaikselt hindasid mõjutama - eurotsooni tarbijahinnaindeks kerkis novembris +0.6% vs oodatud +0.1%.
  • American Intl tgt cut to $12 from $20 at Bernstein. AIG eelturul kauplemas $32 tasemel olles 3.75% languses.
  • IPO likely for GM in 2010 - Detroit News
    Detroit News reports the Obama administration's top auto adviser expects General Motors to make an initial public offering of its stock by the end of 2010. But Ron Bloom, who took over the top spot in July, said Chrysler Group's public offering is further away. "Sometime in the back half of the year, probably more likely fourth (quarter) than third," GM hopefully will be able to make an initial public offering, Bloom said in an interview this week with The Detroit News. "The company has an obligation to us to make their best efforts to accomplish an IPO." Bloom said demonstrating profitability in North America is a "factor," but not a requirement for a public offering.
  • Broadpoint AmTech langetab RIMMi hinnasihti $85 pealt $73 peale ja tõstab samal ajal Google (GOOG) hinnasihi $610 pealt $650 peale.
  • Bernstein ei näe Baidu (BIDU) aktsial enam palju tõusuruumi ja aktsia soovitus langetati market perform peale (uus hinnasiht on $460). Probleemiks on kallis valuatsioon - P/E (E2010) üle 50x ja EV/EBITDA üle 20x. Baidu kasvuootused on ikka väga korralikud:

    The firm says with their current expectations of 10.5% GDP growth in China in 2010 and 37% online advertising growth, and assuming Baidu can still slightly increase its 64.5% share of search, their 2010 revenue growth projections max out at 48% YoY

  • USA alustab päeva reedeste sulgumistasemete juurest.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0.85%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.60%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.49%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.77%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -1.35%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.65%
    Poola WIG +1.09%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.91%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +3.25%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3.19%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +4.19%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.80%
    Tai Set 50 +1.54%
    India Sensex 30 +1.77%

  • A Tough Menu to Digest
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/30/2009 8:37 AM EST

    Any idiot can face a crisis -- it's day-to-day living that wears you out.
    -- Anton Chekhov

    After some typical holiday trading last Wednesday, the Dubai debt dustup caught many market players by surprise during Friday's short session. Although we were solidly negative all day, we moved steadily higher after the big opening gap down, and that took some of the sting out of the action.

    It is very difficult to read much into the trading around the holidays, especially as market players are still trying to sort out the repercussions of the Dubai problems. This morning the overseas action isn't doing much to clarify things. While Asian markets have bounced quite sharply, the European bourses are down around 1% or more. While there seems to be some lessening of anxiety over Dubai, there are still concerns -- issues as diverse as orders for new aircrafts and foreign real estate holdings are affected.

    Even if the Dubai problem weren't so murky, we still have some mixed fundamentals to navigate. Retail sales reports show that while there were many more shoppers this year compared to last, they spent quite a bit less money. The net result was just a very minor increase in total sales over last year. Consumers are obviously still cautious, and who can blame them?

    The technical picture of the market is a bit mixed as well. Although we have seen a continued strong inclination to buy on weakness, there has been narrower leadership, underperformance in small-caps and relative weakness in the financial sector.

    Helene Meisler has also pointed out recently how sentiment surveys indicate a very high level of complacency and are at levels that often occur near tops. So many folks are looking for positive year-end seasonality that it isn't particularly surprising that there is a high level of optimism, but as we saw Friday, seasonality is no sure thing.

    Although the considerations discussed above are important, what the market has really been focused on lately is the dollar. We have an extremely strong inverse correlation with the dollar recently. Any weakness in the dollar has buyers jumping into oil, gold and commodity stocks, and they drag the rest of the market along with them.

    What really caused the gap down on Friday was strength in the dollar; as the dollar weakened during the rest of the day, the market followed along in lock step. This morning the dollar is strengthening a bit again, and that is what helped Asian exports jump and is putting pressure on the indices in the early going.

    Even if weakness in the dollar bolsters the indices again, we need better action in financials and for the strength to broaden out, especially to the smaller-caps. Pockets of speculative action still exist, particularly in some China and solar energy names, but it is limited and that is a bit troubling.

    We'll have to keep a close watch on the dollar. Ironically, the focus on the dollar has given us a market that is highly correlated with strength in gold. Gold is usually considered to be a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but in this market higher gold has been an indication that the market is in good shape.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    Select steel names showing strength boosted by Goldman upgrade of the U.S. steel sector: X +3.6% (raised to Conviction Buy from Buy by Goldman- DJ), AKS +2.7%, NUE +2.4%... Select auto related names showing strength: TTM +3.1%, TM +2.6%... Other news: CLRT +26.4% (granted exclusive license to commercialize cancer biomarker by Minerva Biotechnologies), NVAX +8.0% (completes ernrollment in Phase IIa study of seasonal influenza vaccine in older adults), VPRT +7.3% (terminates all membership program offerings and reaffirms financial guidance), MTU +5.0% (still checking), ALTH +4.5% (United States Patent and Trademark Office has issued a patent for the use of FOLOTYN for the treatment of T-cell lymphoma), SQNM +4.1% (still checking), DPTR +3.3% (announces review of strategic alternatives)... Analyst comments: AOB +2.8% (resumed with a Buy at Brean Murray), DE +2.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan and upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo), EFII +2.7% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), GENZ +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), USB +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), ANF +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), AFL +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt raised to $60), HBC +1.0% (initiated with Outperform at FBR).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NRGY -1.0% (light volume)... Select European financials trading lower: LYG -7.2%, ING -5.2%, RBS -3.7%, AIB -2.1%... Select metals/mining named showing continued weakness: KGC -1.9%, GOLD -1.7%, RTP -1.4%, AU -1.3%, AEM -1.1%... Select oil/gas related names seeing early weakness: BP -2.0%, RDS.B -1.9%, STO -1.8%, CHK -1.3%, HERO -1.2%... Select Europeans drug names trading lower: GSK -1.6% (to cut drug prices in developing countries - FT.com), AZN -1.3%, SNY -1.1% (European Commission has granted marketing authorization for Multaq (dronedarone - 400mg Tablets) in all 27 European member states)... Other news: THRX -4.8% (announces that EMEA has completed the validation phase for the Telavancin MAA for the treatment of nosocomial pneumonia and complicated skin and soft tissue infections), RSO -2.9% (Resource Capital announces common stock follow-on offering of ~ $50 mln), CHL -1.4% (halts WAP tolls in clean up act - Pacific Epoch)... Analyst comments: AIG -3.4% (tgt cut to $12 from $20 at Bernstein), SVU -2.2% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), BKC -1.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Wedbush Morgan), BIDU -1.1% (downgraded BIDU to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein).
  • November Chicago PMI 56.1 vs 53.0 consensus, October 54.2
  • panen siia kiirelt: mul tuli teade, et leveraget ETF margine on IB-s tõstetud alates homsest. kas LHV on sellest midagi kuulnud?
  • AIG-le on täna päris korralikult putte ostetud. Strike-d kuni 20-ni on päris korraliku käibega. Tundub, et panustatakse pankrotile.
    Strateegiad peaks siinohal päris ilusti töötama, vol ka kõrgeks aetud.
  • Bloomberg reporting that Dubai World says total debt affected is approximately $26 bln; says having "constructive" talks with banks
    Ja turg spurdib kõrgemale.
  • mc2, Alo Vallikivi kirjutas sellest LHV Traderi foorumis 25. novembril. Kopeerin selle ka siia:

    AloV Re: LHV Trader 25/11/09 15:53

    FINRA ( DFinancial Indusrty Regulatory Authority) tõstab võimendusega ETF-de ja nendega seotud optsioonide tagatise nõudeid. Esialgu puudutab see kõiki LHV Traderi kliente.

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