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Börsipäev 14. juuli

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  • Inteli eilsed majandustulemused olid võimsad ning mis veelgi olulisem, varasemast optimistlikum väljavaade kolmandale kvartalile ning kogu majandusaastale on see oluline kindlustunnet pakkub info, mida Euroopa võlakriisi ja Hiina majanduse võimaliku jahtumise pärast hirmul investorid alanud tulemustehooajast kõige rohkem ootasid. Vähemalt esimesed raporteerijad on toetamas seda teesi, et tulemustehooaeg võiks investorite riskijulgust suurendada ning turgude tõusu edasi toetada. Inteli aktsia kauples eile järelturul 7% kõrgemal, olles regulaarsel kauplemisajal kerkinud 2,1%.
    Aasia turud on Inteli tulemuste ja Singapuri kõrgema majanduskasvu prognoosi (varasema 9% asemel oodatakse 2010.a kasvu 13-15%) saatel korralikku plussi roninud. S&P 500 futuur kauplemas hetkel 0,6% rohelises, Nasdaq aga +1,2%.
  • Euroopa indeksite futuurid indikeerivad hetkel avanemist 0,5% kuni 0,7% kõrgemal. Makroraportite osas koondub tähelepanu Euroopas täna eurotsooni maikuu tööstustoodangule, mille kuupõhiseks kasvuks ootab Bloombergi konsensus  1,2%. See tähendaks kiirenemist võrreldes eelneva kuu 0,8%-ga.

    USA-s tulevad aga kell 15.30 avaldamisele juunikuu jaemüüginumbrid ning ettevõtete varude raport. Täiendavat volatiilsust võib turgudel pakkuda FOMC juuni kohtumise protokoll (kl 21.00), kuna võib kajastada FED-i liikmete pisut negatiivsemat väljavaadet USA majanduse suhtes võrreldes varasemaga, kui võtta aluseks mitmete analüüsimajade sarnast käitumist.  

  • UK uute töötute registreerimine vähenes oodatud 20 tuhande asemel 20,8 tuhande inimese võrra. Claimant Count töötusemäär tuli oodatud 4,5% ja ILO töötusemäär tuli oodatust 0,1-protsendipunkti võrra parem 7,8%.

    Eurotsooni juunikuu tarbijahinnaindeks oli oodatud 0% (MoM) ja 1,4% (YoY). Tööstustoodang kasvas maikuus oodatud 1,2% asemel 0,9% (MoM) ja aastases lõikes 11,4% asemel 9,4%.

  • USA juunikuu jaemüügi tulemused oodatust kehvemad: -0,2% asemel -0,5%. Kui automüük välja jätta, siis on langus 0,1%.

    Kui jätta välja nii auto- kui kütusemüük, siis jaemüük üllatuslikult kasvas 0,1%.
  • Hetkel kauplevad USA indeksfutuurid kergelt miinuses (ES -0.21%) ning euro päevasiseselt dollari vastu odavnenud 0.10%.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.25%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.73%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.76%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.41%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.34%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.81%
    Poola WIG +0.53%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.71%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.64%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.82%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.97%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.44%
    Tai Set 50 -0.05%
    India Sensex 30 -0.27%

  • Is Intel Enough?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    07/14/2010 7:33 AM

    The reward of a thing well done is to have done it. 
    -- Ralph Waldo Emerson

    The big question for the market today is whether we will be rewarded for a very good earnings report from Intel. Not only did Intel have a good report, but the company says that it was the best quarter ever. Intel has had great reports for four quarters in a row now, but it has seldom been rewarded for its exceptional performance. In fact, just a couple of weeks ago the stock was trading at the same level it was at a year ago despite consistently great earnings reports.

    But regardless of the effect on INTC stock itself, Intel's earnings reports have often been a turning point for the market. A year ago Intel was the catalyst for a great upside run during July, but the last two quarters its results have marked a short-term top.

    I can't explain why Intel has had this tendency to create turning points more than just about any other stock. Many traders tend to believe that when the semiconductor group leads, the market is close to a top. I'm not sure why chips should be a lagging indicator rather than a leading one, but there is no question that the group often disappoints just when it looks like it's assuming a leadership role in the market.

    Even if Intel does hold on to its gap-up gains today, we need to see if it can hold up the broad market as well. Right now the broad market is showing limited upside. Europe is in the red on weakness in banks and we definitely have less euphoria this morning than we had last night.

    The bearish case for the market here is very clear technically. We are looking at the seventh straight positive day right as we hit resistance at some key overhead levels. Other than yesterday, volume has been light on the way up, and without any consolidation, the foundation for further upside is shaky. Throw in the well-known inclination for Intel to mark a short-term top and you have the bearish argument.

    The bulls' argument here is that this Intel report really is very strong and this time it should hold. They said the exact same thing last quarter and it didn't matter, but maybe it will this time because we aren't at highs like we were back then.

    The bulls also are unconcerned about the narrow technical support. We have had plenty of low-volume, straight-up moves since March 2009, so why can't we have another one? The underinvested bulls and the shorts always end up fueling these moves as they tend to persist beyond what most people expect. With some optimism in the air due to earnings season, we can easily keep on going up without a rest.

    I'm a bit surprised to see European markets in the red, but they are focused on banks and commodities this morning rather than Intel. That is spilling over a little this morning and offsetting the Intel strength. If we are unable to shake it off, the eurozone weakness is likely to trigger more aggressive profit-taking after a good run over the past two weeks.

    It is a very tricky juncture here, where good news has to battle a tough technical setup. In the past the technicals have tended to lose, but it is not an easy bet if you understand the logic.

    No positions. 

  • Briefing.com vahendusel:

    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: JTX +29.8%, ADTN +12.3% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil), EXPD +7.9%, INTC +6.1%, ASML +4.5%, MTL +1.9%.

    Select tech related names boosted by INTC results: NVDA +6.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NSM +4.5% (declared a cash dividend of $0.10 per outstanding share of common stock, up from $0.08 per common share), AMD +4.5%, SMH +3.5%, STX +3.0%, SNDK +2.8% (Toshiba starts construction of Fab 5 for NAND flash memory at Yokkaichi; Toshiba and SanDisk sign joint venture agreement ), DELL +2.7%, MRVL +2.6%, MU +2.0%, TSM +1.9%, MSFT +1.8%, BRCM +1.7%, HPQ +1.6%, TXN +1.5%, CSCO +1.2%, QQQQ +0.6%, .

    Other news: CTIC +9.5% (announces that it has signed a manufacturing agreement with NerPharMa DS), IFLG +4.5% (announces NASDAQ grants InfoLogix's request for continued listing to regain compliance with listing requirements), JBL +3.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ARMH +3.7% (still checking), NOC +1.7% (to consolidate Gulf Coast shipyards and explore strategic alternatives; net impact of tax benefit and shipbuilding charge to increase Q2 2010 EPS), MON +1.5% (Monsanto CEO and CFO bought 67.5K shares at $52.06-52.09 on 7/13), AMR +1.0% (EU clears British Airways, AMR and Iberia Airline Alliance - CNBC), BRK.B +0.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), .

    Analyst comments: AKS +3.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman ), CRM +2.0% (initiated with a Hold at Citigroup; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), SNV +1.8% (initiated with a Positive at Susquehanna), VVUS +1.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink), TSL +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at Jefferies), MOT +1.2% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at MKM Partners), TAM +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: YUM -3.4%, AIR -3.4% (light volume), PGR -1.3%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -6.4%, LYG -2.3%, AIB -2.1%, CS -1.9%, BCS -1.8%, BBVA -1.6%, RBS -1.5%, UBS -1.2%, ING -1.1%.

    Other news: GTIV -11.0% (discloses SEC investigation), LHCG -10.5% (acknowledges SEC letter and reaffirms 2010 guidance in-line with consensus; downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital Mkts), PVX -10.7% (trading post split), MMP -3.4% (announces public 5 mln unit offering), NLY -3.1% (announces public offering of 60 mln shares of common stock), LXK -2.1% (Hearing weakness attributed to analyst downgrade).

    Analyst comments: WTNY -5.7% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich), SHW -1.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), ZION -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), LNC -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse), KEY -0.8% (initiated with a Negative at Susquehanna).

  • Oodatust enam vähenenud toornaftavarud aitasid mustal kullal tagasi eilsele sulgumistasemele jõuda @ 77.15

    Dept of Energy reports that:

        Crude oil inventories had a draw of 5058K (consensus is a draw of 1500K)
        Gasoline inventories had a build of 1601K (consensus is at unchanged)
        Distillate inventories had a build of 2943K (consensus is a build of 1000K)
        Change in the US refinery utilization rate was 0.70% (consensus is 0.00%)

  • IMAX to form strategic partnership with laser light engines through equity investment
    IMAX announced that it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Laser Light Engines, a leading developer and manufacturer of ultra-high brightness, laser-driven light sources. Under the terms of the agreement, IMAX plans to make an equity investment in Laser Light Engines, and Laser Light Engines would develop a custom version of its laser light technology for exclusive use in IMAX digital projection systems.
  • $13 bln 30-year Bond Auction Results: Yield 4.080% (expected 4.108%); Bid/Cover 2.89x (Prior 2.87x, 12-auction avg 2.59x%); Indirect Bidders 37.4% (Prior 36.0%, 12-auction avg 38.5%)
  • Mingit rämedat kasumihoiatust mõnelt bluechipilt oleks vaja, siis saaks vast turu rallima ka.
  • Summary of FOMC minutes
    FOMC says while the recent data on production and spending were broadly in line with the staff's expectations, the pace of the expansion over the next year and a half was expected to be somewhat slower than previously predicted. The staff's forecasts for headline and core inflation were also reduced slightly. FOMC participants' forecasts for economic activity and inflation suggested that they expected the recovery to continue and inflation to remain subdued, but with, on balance, slightly weaker real activity and a bit lower inflation than in the projections they made in conjunction with the April 2010 FOMC meeting. Most participants also anticipated that inflation would remain relatively low over the forecast period. The participants generally made modest downward revisions to their projections for real GDP growth for the years 2010 to 2012, as well as modest upward revisions to their projections for the unemployment rate for the same period... In their discussion of monetary policy for the period ahead, members agreed that it would be appropriate to maintain the target range of 0 to 0.25 percent for the federal funds rate. The economic outlook had softened somewhat and a number of members saw the risks to the outlook as having shifted to the downside. Nonetheless, all saw the economic expansion as likely to be strong enough to continue raising resource utilization, albeit more slowly than they had previously anticipated... As for change in real GDP, the 2010 projection was 3.0-3.5% vs 3.2-3.7% in April projection and 2011 was 3.5-4.2% vs 3.4-4.5% in April projection. As for unemployment rate the 2010 projection was 9.2-9.5% vs 9.1-9.5% in April projection and 2011 was 8.3-8.7% vs 8.-8.5% in April projection.
  • FOMC ütleb samas viimastel andmeid tootmise ja kulutamise olid üldjoontes kooskõlas töötajate ootustele, tempo laiendamine järgmise aasta jooksul ja pool pidi olema mõnevõrra aeglasem, kui varem arvati. Personali prognoose pealkiri ja baasinflatsioon oli ka pisut vähenes. FOMC osalejate prognoosid majandustegevusest ja inflatsioon tegi ettepaneku, et nad oodata taastumine jätkub ja inflatsiooni jääma tagasihoidlikuks, kuid kokkuvõttes veidi nõrgem reaalne tegevus ja natuke madalama inflatsiooni kui prognoosid nad tegid koos aprill 2010 FOMC istungil. Enamik osalejaid ka oodata, et inflatsioon jääb suhteliselt madal prognoosiperioodil jooksul. Osalejatel on üldiselt tehtud tagasihoidlik väiksemaks parandamine nende Reaalset SKT kasv aastatel 2010-2012, samuti tagasihoidlik tõusta nende prognoosid töötuse määr samal perioodil ... Oma arutelu rahapoliitika eelseisvaks perioodiks, liikmed nõustusid, et oleks asjakohane säilitada eesmärgi vahemikus 0-0,25 protsenti föderaal raha määra. Majanduslikud väljavaated olid pehmenenud mõnevõrra ja liikmete arvu nägin väljavaadet ohustavad nii, nagu oleks lindistatud seotud riskidega. Siiski kõik nägid majanduskasv on tõenäoliselt piisavalt tugev, et jätkuvalt tõsta ressursside kasutamise, kuigi aeglasemalt kui nad olid varem oodatud ... Mis muutus SKP reaalkasv, 2010 projektsioon oli 3,0-3,5% vs 3,2-3,7% aprillis prognoos ja 2011 oli 3,5-4,2% vs 3,4-4,5% aprillis projektsioon. Nagu töötuse määr 2010 projektsioon oli 9,2-9,5% vs 9,1-9,5% aprillis prognoos ja 2011 oli 8,3-8,7% vs 8.-8.5% aprillis projektsioon.


    krt, ikka ei saa midagi aru :(
  • Krt Google translate on ikka jõhkralt arenenud:). Enam ei saagi niipalju nalja kui 1,5 aastat tagasi.

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