Börsipäev 23. detsember

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Mida lähemale jõuludele seda väiksemaks muutuvad turul käibed ning liikumised. Eile vahetas NYSE-l omanikku veidi alla nelja miljardi aktsia, mis oli selgelt madalam kuu keskmisest päevasest tehingute arvust (4,8 mld). Uutele mitme aasta tippudele aitas eile USA indekseid tõsta investorite paranenud sentiment finantssektoris tänu viimase aja M&A aktiivsusele. BAC rallis +3,1%, JPM +2,8%, MS +2% ning väiksemad regionaalpangad näitasid potentsiaalse ülevõtmise lootuses veelgi hoogsamat minekut.

    Kui Euroopas olulist makrot tulemas pole, siis USA poolel on nimekiri küllaltki korralik. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse eelmise nädala esmase töötuabiraha taotlejate number, mis konsensuse arvates suurenes 420K pealt 424K peale. Kestvate taotluste mahuks oodatakse 4075K, vähenedes eelneva nädala 4135K pealt. Samal ajal aga avaldatakse novembrikuu isiklike sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutus ning kestvuskaupade tellimused. Kell 16.55 on laual Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi lõplik näit (dets) ja viis minutit hiljem uute majade annualiseeritud novembrikuu müük, mis konsensuse arvates paranes kuuga 283K pealt 300K peale.  

    USA indeksite futuurid on hetkel liikumas päeva tippude juures 0,1% plussis.


  • Et turgudel väga palju actionit ei toimu, siis leiab aega igasugust huvitavat statistikat kokku panna. Bespoke täheldab, et S&P 500 on detsembrikuu 16-st kauplemissessioonist 14-l lõpetanud plussiga ning saavutanud sellega juba 6,63%-lise tootluse. Kui vaadata tagasi kuni aastani 1990, siis säärast track recordit on sattunud jagama vaid 1990. a mai ja 1995.a september. Detsembri tootluse osas suudeti viimati kõrgemat numbrit näidata 1987. aastal, mil S&P500 oli 22. kuupäevaks jõudnud tõusta 8,53%.

  • Euro müügisurve jätkub täna täie hooga. Euro on teinud sel nädalal järjest uusi põhjasid nii Austraalia dollari kui Šveitsi frangi vastu.
  • Iiri valitsus süstib Allied Irish Banks'i 3,7 miljardid eurot, suurendab riigiosaluse 92%ni ning Iirimaa börsil aktsia delistitakse, mis võib tähendada et ka NYSE-l noteeritud aktsiad võidaks nimekirjast maha võtta.
  • Kas täna ja 31 det. on NYSE täispikk börsipäev ?
  • Mõlemal kuupäeval on täispikk tööpäev, so kella 23.00-ni.
  • Allied Irish Banks lahkub küll Iiri ja Londoni börsi põhinimekirjadest, kuid on andnud sisse avalduse noteerida leebemate börsinõuetega ja väiksematele ettevõtetele suunatud ESM nimekirjas.
  • Gapping up

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: BBBY +8.2%

    M&A news: JAS +34.3% (to be acquired by Leonard Green & Partners, for $61.00/share in cash), SNIC +25.0% (to be acquired by ROVI for $14.17 per share, a 27% premium to last night's close), VRGY +12.0% (receives revised unsolicited proposal from Advantest to acquire VRGY for $15.00 per share in cash; prior offer was for $12.15 per share).

    Other news: AIXG +5.7% (strength attributed to Digitimes story saying China LED makers to install more MOCVD equipment in 2011, and mentioning AIXG), URRE +5.4% (still checking), SQNM +5.4% (Commences pivotal clinical validation study for its SensiGene Trisomy 21 laboratory developed test), NVO +2.8% (Degludec significantly reduces risk of hypoglycaemia during the night compared to insulin glargine in two long-term studies), BR +2.8% (still checking).

  • November Durable Orders -1.3% vs -1.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -3.1% from -3.4%

    November Durable Orders- ex trans +2.4% vs +0.8% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -1.9% from -2.7%

    Initial Claims 420K vs 424K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 423K from 420K

    Continuing Claims falls to 4.064 mln from prior 4.167 mln

    November Personal Income +0.3% vs +0.2% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.4% from +0.5%

    November Personal Spending +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.7% from +0.4%

    November PCE Prices- Core M/M +0.1% vs 0.1% Briefing.com consensus; prior 0.0%; PCE Deflator Y/Y +1.0%

  • To Erko
    Ja mis siis saab kui AIB NYSE-lt maha võetakse ?
  • Esimeste pealkirjade põhjal polnud teadlik, et AIB jääb börsil kauplema.....lihtsalt teises nimekirjas. Seega võib ka ADR alles jääda
  • German Fin Min: Expects 2011 budget deficit to be considerably below 3% - German press
  • Gapping down

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ARWR -9.2% (light volume), MU -3.1%.

    M&A news: RIO -1.0% (offered to buy Australian coal miner Riversdale Mining for ~$3.9 bln).

    Other news: SCMR -26.0% (today is the ex-date for its $6.50/share cash distribution), AIB -13.3% (Irish govt confirms plan to take control of AIB), ARMH -3.5% (reversing a portion of yesterday's gains), CROX -2.3% (announces CFO resigns), MT -2.3% (still checking), GILD -0.5% (stops ARTEMIS-IPF due to lack of efficacy).

    Analyst comments: TSLA -2.5% (initiated with a Sell at Capstone), LOGI -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas), ERIC -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).

  • Ei julgenud AIB-is riski võtta ja läks müüki.
  • Todd Shipyards (TOD) to be acquired by Vigor Industrial for $22.27 cash per share
  • USA indeksite futuurid indikeerimas avanemist -0,03% kuni -0,23% madalamal. EUR/USD -0,27% @1,3062, kuld -0,67% @ 1377,6 USD, nafta +0,08% @ 90,5 USD.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0,15%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,58%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,00%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,60%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,20%
    Venemaa MICEX -0,15%
    Poola WIG -0,02%

    Aasia turud:

    Jaapani Nikkei 225 suletud
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,62%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,79%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,83%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,52%
    Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 +0,43%
    Tai Set 50 +0,19%
    India Sensex 30 -0,16%

  • Rev Shark: Without a Care in the World
    12/23/2010 9:00 AM

    What is Christmas? It is tenderness for the past, courage for the present, hope for the future. It is a fervent wish that every cup may overflow with blessings rich and eternal, and that every path may lead to peace. --Agnes M. Pahro

    Today is the last day of trading before the Christmas holiday, so it's no surprise that many market players have their minds on other things. The action is not only slow but, compared with other times when the S&P 500 has sat at an annual high, the intraday trading range Wednesday was one of the smallest in the last 17 years, according to SentimenTrader.

    That sort of narrow range does not make for very interesting trading. It is even more challenging when volume slows for the holiday, and when the little action that does occur is quite random.

    The market has lately been an excellent illustration of the power of momentum. Despite many good reasons for some weakness, stocks just continue to plod along without a worry in the world. For the bears who are convinced that this relentless uptrend has to suddenly end at any moment, the positive sentiment that tend to prevail around the holidays and near the end of the year just make matters even more difficult.

    On a day like today, when volume is set to be very light and we are seeing some very overbought stocks, it is going to be particularly difficult to do anything very aggressive. There is just too much risk of random action.

    One of the easiest ways to have problems is to put too much stock in seasonality. Seasonality is an inclination and not a certainty -- there have been many times when traders have looked to the calendar and have found themselves on the wrong side of the action. We saw a great example of this in September and October, when the market went straight up despite the statistics that show those months to be the weakest of the year.

    At the moment, we are seeing a mixed open on the way. My game plan is to look and see whether the hot money is gravitating toward anything in particular, as well as whether there may be a quick momentum trade.

    Today is not the day for big moves or grand predictions. It is a day to do little. If you can find a quick trade or two, then take them if you are so inclined, but otherwise just keep on an eye on existing positions and don't let them slip too much.

    A number of economic reports have hit today, and they are generally in line, so the market has registered little reaction to them. A couple if takeovers were announced this morning but, overall, the wires are fairly slow.

    In case you are heading out early today, I wish you a Merry Christmas and a happy holiday.

  • Crocs (CROX) announces CFO resigns
    Co announced that Russell C. Hammer has resigned as Chief Financial Officer effective December 31, 2010 in order to join a Chicago based public company as its chief financial officer. A search for Mr. Hammer's successor is underway.
    Tõenäoliselt saab mingiks ajaks veidi müügisurvet.
  • Rovi Corp (ROVI) Price Target raised to $62 from $54 at Piper Jaffray; Reiterates Overweight rating

    Rovi müügisurve:

    News flow is light as we close out the holiday week, although there was some M&A of interest. Roxio software producer Sonic Solutions (SNIC) will be acquired by Rovi (ROVI) in a cash and stock transaction valued at $720 mln, or $14.17 per share, representing a 27% premium to yesterday's closing price.

    Ehk võtab üle SNIC $14.17 cash.

  • ROVI andis avanemisel väga hea kauplemisvõimaluse, ~$57 ->$58.50 ehk 1.5 punkti.
  • December University of Michigan Sentiment- final 74.5, prelim 74.2; November 71.6
  • Lindsay (LNN): Weaker than expected margins drive earnings disappointment; long-term outlook for irrigation favorable, but expectations still high -- FY11 EPS cut at Wedbush

    Wedbush notes LNN issed on EPS as a result of what appears to be an 800 basis point decline in infrastructure margins. In the absence of significant high margin QMB business, gross margins declined 280 bps YoY. They believe caution is in order given lower than expected margins in the most recent quarter, the unpredictable nature of the infrastructure market, and the volatility in the agriculture segment. Their channel checks continue to support a healthy recovery for the irrigation market. They are reducing their FY11 EPS to $1.96 from $2.26, and reducing their Q2 EPS est to $0.56 from $0.61 (cons: $2.22, $0.65), to account for lower margins in the infrastructure business.

    Hetkel ei ole ettevõtte kohta mitte ühtki osta soovitust, enamusel väljas hoia, samas targetid valdavalt alla hetke turuhinna.

    Päeva käive on madal ja spread suur, seega peab olema ettevaatlik.

  • November New Home Sales 290K vs 300K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +5.5%
  • Ma oskan ka tagantjärgi terve trobikonna kauplemisvõimalusi välja tuua.
    ROVI taastumise taga see, et osad analüütikud arvamas, et "great strategic fit" ja plaplapla.
    Mina arvan, et kuna mõlemad on suhteliselt retarded firmad, siis sobivad hästi kokku jah.
  • to: jim
    Kas ROVI post ei läinud üles enne turu avanemist?
  • jim
    Alari annab väärt infot aga seda tuleb osata lugeda ja kasutada. Ise alles õpin :)
  • Rääkisime Alariga paar sõna msnis. Minu point oli, et kui on idee või soovitus, siis olgugi konkreetselt idee või soovitusena välja toodud, mitte ärgu muutugu see soovituseks alles pärast õnnestumist. Alari jälle arvas, et ta ei taha konkreetseid soovitusi anda ja see polegi tema ülesanne. Nii et me nõustusime mittenõustumisega.
    Teema läbi.
  • Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) Submits Data to the FDA Supporting Morning Assessment of Testosterone for Men Treated with Androxal® as Indicative of Average and Maximum Levels Attained
    - submitted to the FDA data collected from three different studies which the Company believes demonstrates that the assessment of testosterone levels between 8 and 10 in the morning is indicative of the maximum and average levels of the male hormone achieved during a particular day following the administration of Androxal. In the Type B meeting held on November 8, 2010, and reported in the Companys press release of November 9, 2010, the FDA stated the preferred method to determine testosterone levels in treatments designed to replace the hormone is a 24 hour assessment.
    - Using the data from the 002 and 003 studies the sponsor has determined that a single total testosterone assessment made between 8 and 10 in the morning correlates to the average of the values of the testosterone measurements for a given subject on a given day (correlation coefficient roughly 0.9 for the times 8, 9 and 10, p value < 0.001).
    - From the 018 study that assessed men at baseline and after 14 days of treatment, the Company observed that Androxal raises each time point testosterone level by an average of 200 ng/dl at 12.5 mg and 260 ng/dl at a 25 mg dose.
    - Unlike topical testosterone preparations, Androxal maintains the normal daily rhythm of testicular testosterone production with peak levels generally occurring in the morning and trough levels exhibited in the evening

  • VECO näitab täna eriti hoogsat tõusu, peamine põhjus:
    Veeco Instruments Inc Hearing recent strength attributed to positive comments from Deutsche Bank on LED industry MOCVD orders
  • SAS-i aktsia täna 12% tõusus. Spekulatsioonide kohaselt peab Lufthansa läbirääkimisi Rootsi, Taani ning Norra valitsustega SAS-i omandamiseks.
  • Huntington Bancshares Inc (HBAN) upgraded to Buy at Miller Tabak
    Aktsia hetkel kauplemas protsendi jagu languses $6.78 tasemel.
  • EUR/USD on turgu toetamas, päeva alguse langusest on kiirelt tagasi tõusu kosutud.
  • Novartis AG uropean Commission approves Novartis drug Tasigna® for treatment of patients with newly diagnosed Ph+ chronic myeloid leukemia
  • Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (TEVA) FDA Issues Complete Response Letter for Lower-Volume Glatiramer Acetate sNDA

    The complete response letter stated that the FDA could not approve the application as submitted.
    - The FDA noted that the 0.5mL formulation contained the same active ingredient as the currently marketed Copaxone, but that because the mechanism of action of Copaxoneis not fully understood, even a formulation change could impact clinical outcomes. The Agency stated, Unless you can provide a convincing argument that the new higher concentration/lower volume formulation does not have an impact on efficacy, an adequate and well controlled efficacy study will be needed to support efficacy of this new formulation."

    - This response supports Teva's belief that even slight changes to a glatiramoid like Copaxonecan significantly and unpredictably influence the efficacy, toxicity and immunogenicity profile of the compound. Teva intends to continue working closely with the FDA to determine the most appropriate next steps regarding the application.

  • ***Treasury market will close at 2 PM ET for Christmas***
  • Analog Devices Inc (ADI) ITC ruled in favor of Analog Devices in its lawsuit against Knowles Electronics.
    - Judge concluded that Knowles infringes valid claims from one of ADIs Wafer Anti-Stiction Application (WASA) patents. Specifically, he ruled that Knowles infringes claims 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 and 8 from ADIs U.S. Pat. No. 7,364,942. As a result, ADI expects the ITC to issue an exclusion order prohibiting Knowles and its U.S. Distributor from importing or selling all infringing microphones in the United States. Additionally, ADI expects to recover damages on all past sales of Knowles microphones through its pending lawsuit against Knowles in Delaware.
    - This recent ruling follows ITC Judge Rogers ruling on November 22nd when he found Knowles Electronics MEMS microphone packaging patents were invalid, a ruling consistent with the position taken by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office, where all of Knowles asserted claims were rejected in separate reexaminations

  • BA kinnitab 787 testimise jätkamist.
  • Meeldetuletuseks:

    Homme 24.dets on USA turud suletud ja kauplemist ei toimu.

    Häid jõule kõigile!
    LHV meeskond
  • Fitch on enne pühasid selgelt aktiviseerunud ning päeval langetas reitinguagentuur ka Ungari krediidireitingu alla investment grade ehk BBB- tasemele, väljavaade jäeti aga negatiivse peale. Kui rääkida üldiselt Ungarist, siis allolev graafik Goldmanilt peegeldab hästi riigi majapidamiste probleeme. Kui lõppeva aasta suvel moodustas HUFis väljastatud võlg (liisingud, majalaenud, jne.) ca 12% SKPst, siis välisvaluutas väljatatud võlg ulatus koguni 50%le SKPst. Suur osa välisvaluutas väljastatud võlast on aga just Šveitsi frankides, mis on tänavu HUFi vastu tõusnud 21% - võla suurus on tublisti kasvanud. Augustis keelati näiteks Ungaris ära hüpoteeklaenude väljastamine välisvaluutas. Teatavasti on Ungari ära öelnud ka IMFi abist.

Teemade nimekirja