Börsipäev 24. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 24. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kuigi käesolev nädalal saab olema täis olulisi majandussündmusi ja makrouudiseid (FOMC kohtumine, UK ja USA neljanda kvartali esialgsed SKT numbrid, Saksamaa jaanuarikuu inflatsiooninäit), siis tänane päev jääb küllaltki vaikseks ning tähelepanu all võiks olla vaid eurotsooni PMI-d (kell 11.00) ja novembrikuu uute tellimuste maht euroala tööstussektoris (kl 12.00). Ühtlasi jätkub tulemustehooag, kui enne turgu raporteerivad muuhulgas McDonald's ja Haliburton ning pärast turgu American Express, STMicroelectronics, Texas Instruments.

    Aasia indeksid on alustanud päeva erisuunaliste liikumistega, Euroopa ja USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad aga hetkel 0,3% plusspoolel.
  • Saksamaa PMI tootmisindeks 60,2 vs oodatud 60,9 punkti. Teenustesektori indeks tuli 60,0 vs oodatud 59,0 punkti.
    Euro on täna võtnud suuna allapoole ning kaupleb hetkel 0,41% madalamal $1,3567 tasemel.
  • USA dollar on alustanud nädalat tõusuga, olles tugevnenud kõikide peamiste valuutade vastu, v.a Austraalia dollari, mis on saanud tuge Aasia sessioonil tõusnud kulla hinnast. Kulla veebruari futuur on hetkel 0,4% plussis $1347 tasemel.
  • Jim Rogers leiab BBC intervjuus, et parim viis Aasia majanduskasvu investeerimiseks on läbi toorainete. Kuigi mitmed toiduained ja energia on viimaste kuudega teinud läbi tugeva hinnatõusu, siis ei ole Rogersi arvates toorainete ralli veel läbi. Spetsiifilisemalt just naftast rääkides usub ta, et naftaleidude vähenemine ja arenevate riikide kasvav nõudlus viivad musta kulla hinna ühel päeval 200 dollarini. Link intervjuule.
  • Möödunud nädala kvartalitulemuste tabelisse on nüüd viimased muudatused sisse viidud ja tabel ise nähtav siin.
  • Eurotsooni PMI-d enam vähem ootuspärased: PMI Manufacturing 56,9 vs oodatud 57,0; PMI Services 55,2 vs oodatud 54,3 ja PMI Composite 56,3 vs 55,6.

    EUR/USD suuremat reaktsiooni selle peale ei näita ning jätkab kauplemist 1,3573 tasemel (-0,35%). Ka USA indeksite futuurid on viimase tunniga plussi käest andnud ning liiguvad üsna nulli lähedal.
  • Eurotsooni tööstussektori tellimuste maht kasvas novembris 2,1% võrreldes oktoobriga, mis ületas Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute 1,9%list ootust. Aasta baasil kasvas uute tellimuste maht 19,9% vs oodatud 17,4%.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OCCF +21.6%, IBN +2.2%, STLD +1.4% (light volume)M HAL +0.7%.

    M&A news: GXDX +25.5% (Genoptix agrees to be acquired by Novartis for $25.00 per share), SSCC +21.2% (RockTenn to acquire co; aggregate consideration valued at $35 per share), SLE +1.6% (higher with Bloomberg.com reporting the co received offer).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HL +1.8%, SLW +1.4%, SSRI +1.3%, VALE +1.1%, NG +1.1%, ABX +1.0%, AUY +0.9%.

    Select solar related names showing strength: FSLR +2.2% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman), LDK +1.7%, JASO +1.5%, .

    Other news: CLDA +41% (receives FDA approval of Viibryd for Major Depressive Disorder, initiated with a Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw), CNGL +7.4% (thinly traded; enters into a supply contract with Doehler Food and Beverage Ingredients to supply 1,500 tons of its fruit concentrate pr), NVDA +4.6% (modestly higher following positive mention in financial newspaper over the weekend), PIP +4.1% (ongoing case against SIGA; judge was questioning on Fri Siga negotiations in the case), GGP +3.8% (still checking), JCP +3.5% (to take strategic actions to maximize long-term growth and profitability ),.

    Analyst comments: NYX +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WWE -11.1%, RSH -8.2% (also announced that Julian Day plans to retire as chairman, chief executive officer), PHG -6.2%, RKT -5.1% (also announced plans to acquire Smurfit-Stone; aggregate consideration valued at $35 per share), MCD -1.7%.

    M&A news: SRX +-4% (UK Telegraph story saying Serco is no longer in talks to buy the company).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.9%, IRE -3.3%, RBS -2.9%, BCS -1.7%, STD -1.6%, MS -1.0%, DB -0.8%, BBVA -0.7%.

    Rare earth names are trading lower: REE -5%, SHZ -1.9%, MCP -1.4%.

    Other news: UWBK -7.9% (announces seizure of United Western Bank By FDIC and potential bankruptcy filing), CRM -3.2% (ticking lower following cautious mention in financial newspaper over the weekend), ASML -2.4% and TS -1.4% (still checking for anything specific), NOK -1.3% (Hearing weakness attributed to downgrade overseas).

    Analyst comments: OVTI -4.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird), MIPS -2.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Capstone), TSO -1.8% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Benchmark).

  • Change in Character
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/24/2011 8:49 AM EST

    "If our air forces are never used, they have achieved their finest goal."
    -- General Nathan F. Twining

    Despite the misleading action in the DJIA, the character of the broad market action shifted last week. Momentum dried up, and the dip-buyers disappeared. Small-cap stocks were hit particularly hard, but some favorite big-cap momentum names also stalled out. A few Dow stocks such as International Business Machines (IBM) , General Electric (GE) and Wal-Mart (WMT) bucked the trend that helped that index hold, but under the surface, there were breakdowns galore.

    The main catalyst for the selling appeared to be sell-the-news reactions to good reports from Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) . Both reports were very strong with some management changes being the only negatives. Despite the good numbers, both stocks reversed sharply and traded straight down.

    That action was all it took to finally trigger a bout of profit-taking. Bids dried up, and many stocks went into free-fall, which was enough to scare away the dip-buyers who had been so consistent for so long.

    The market had become technically extended, sentiment had been quite complacent, and we had positive seasonality, so we were due for a correction after a long period of one-way moves. It isn't very surprising that we finally had a correction of sorts, but the much more important issue is whether this is just a little pause that will refresh and rejuvenate the buyers or the start of a more difficult period of trading.

    Every time I've asked that question in recent months, the market almost immediately shrugged off its worried and reversed back up. Looking for a downtrend to gain steam has been a losing trade for a very long time.

    Nonetheless, when stocks act the way they did last week, we have little choice but to be more defensive. It is far more important that we protect capital and guard against further downside than it is to stay invested and hope that we have a quick reversal. The key is to be ready, and if we don't have to act further, then we have been successful.

    It's worth noting how many stocks broke down last week. In my review of charts this weekend, very little was at support or in a buyable position, unless you like buying stocks with poor charts. I always take my cues from the charts that I find, and unless you want to be names such as Disney (DIS) and GE, you sure aren't going to find much that is attractive at the moment.

    That can change quickly, and we have to be on guard for another V-ish reversal, but we sure shouldn't trust that one will occur again. Keep in mind that once we see a sell-the-news reaction to earnings, it is often a continuing theme. We have hundreds of reports coming in the next two weeks, so that should create some trading opportunities.

    Be careful out there, and let this market prove itself before you rush to reload. Something changed in the action last week, and the market needs to deal with it before we can have greater confidence in long positions.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned
  • Täna on Merrill Lynch väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Kinetic Concepts (KCI) kohta.
    Merrill Lynch tõstab KCI reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $46 pealt $55 peale.

    One of the key risks to KCI – the potential for higher than expected share loss in negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) following the Oct patent ruling – has dissipated in our view. We believe any meaningful share impact from the ruling would have manifested early on, but KCI’s Q4 results (announced 1/10) suggest little to no impact from the ruling. We’re making no changes to our model but now have increased confidence that KCI’s U.S. share loss in 2011/2012 should be limited to our 5-6% est.

    Analüütikute sõnul on turuosa kaotamisest tulenev surve nüüdseks hajunud ning firma kvartalitulemused näitasid, et oktoobris välja tulnud kohtuotsus patentide osas ei omanud firmale mingit mõju.

    Importantly, we do not expect 2011 EPS guidance (to be provided Feb 1) to include any impact from royalty reductions, but we still expect EPS guidance to be at or above consensus.

    Mis veelgi olulisem, analüütikud usuvad, et firma tõstab 1. Veebruaril ka 2011. Aasta prognoose või vähemalt jätab samale tasemele.

    Kuigi $55 hinnasihi näol on tegemist uue street high`ga, siis tuleb meeles pidada, et KCI puhul pole tegemist väga hea kauplemisaktsiaga. Samas ma eeldan, et turuosalistele võib silma jääda analüütikute viide sellele, et firma võib oma 2011. aasta prognoose nädala pärast tõsta.

  • Usa indeksite futuurid on hetkel liikumas üsna nulli lähedal
    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX -0,48%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,06%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,40%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,79%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,60%
    Venemaa MICEX -1,36%
    Poola WIG -0,79%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,69%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,31%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,72%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,44%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq+0,25%
    Austraalia S&P/ASX 200+0,64%
    Tai Set 50 -4,34%
    India Sensex 30 +0,76%
  • Euro on vahepeal hea hoo sisse saanud ja ületas ka reedel tehtud kahe kuu tipu. Hetkeseisuga on uueks tipuks $1,3658, kus kaubeldi viimati 22. novembril.
  • Intel (INTC) teatas, et tõstab kvartaalse dividendi 18.12 sendi peale, mis tähendab 15% suurust tõusu. Samuti suurendati aktsiate tagasiostuprogrammi $10 miljardi võrra, mis tähendab, et täitmata tagasiostuprogrammi maht on $14.2 miljardit.
  • The Fed purchased $8.87 bln of 2016-2017 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $22.36 bln
  • KCI liikus täna uhkemalt, kui ootasin. Kindlasti oli oma osa siin mängida ka tugeval turul, aga aktsia avanes $45 alt, $44,70-$44,90 kandis ehk ca 1,4% plusspoolel ning peale kiiret hüpet $45,20 peale, kukkus KCI hetkeks avanemistasemele tagasi ning alustas seejärel sirgjoonelist liikumist üles. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia juba $46,80 kandis ehk 5,65% plusspoolel.

  • Tulemustesadu jätkub täies hoos:
    Täna peale turgu teatavad:
    Homme enne turgu:
  • Valgust USA kinnisvarasektorisse – Moody’s hinnangul tõusid kommertskinnisvara hinnad kolmandat kuud järjest. Moody’s/Real Commercial Property Price indeks (CPPI) tõusis y-o-y baasil novembrikuus 2.8%. 2 aasta taguse perioodiga võrreldes on hinnad 31.6% madalamad ning 2007. aasta oktoobris moodustatud tipust on hinnad langenud ca 41.6%. Seevastu augustis moodustatud põhjast on hinnad kasvanud novembri seisuga ca 6.4% - sektoril tasub kindlasti tuleviku mõttes silma peal hoida.

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