Börsipäev 28. jaanuar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 28. jaanuar

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  • Jaapani krediidireitingu langetamine ning nõrkus tooraineturul on survestanud Aasia turge, kus indeksid kauplevad valdavalt miinuspoolel. Väga varajastel hommikutundidel on ca 0,1-0,2% punases liikumas ka USA futuurid.

    Tänase päeva kõige olulisemaks sündmuseks saab olema USA neljanda kvartali SKT avaldamine (kell 15.30) ning konsensuse arvates võis riigi majandus kasvada 3,7%, kiirenedes kolmanda kvartali 2,6%-ga võrreldes. Lisaks avaldatakse kell 16.55 jaanuarikuu Michigani sentimendi lõplik näit.

    Majandustulemused avaldavad enne USA turu avanemist Chevron, Ford, Honeywell.
  • Lisaks Jaapanile on käesoleval nädalal reitinguagentuurid murettekitava pilguga jälgimas ka USA finantsseisu. Via Bloomberg : Moody's Says Time Running Out for U.S. as S&P Cuts Japan
    Although no rating action is contemplated at this time, the time frame for possible future actions appears to be shortening, and the probability of assigning a negative outlook in the coming two years is rising
  • Eurotsooni rahapakkumine M3 kasvas detsembris 1,7% vs oodatud 1,9% (Y/Y).
  • Kulla veebruari futuur langes täna varahommikul $1307 tasemeni, kus kaubeldi viimati 30. septembril.
  • Morgan Stanley on alloleval graafikul välja toonud fakti, et pärast ECB hoiatavaid kommentaare inflatsiooni osas on turg pidamas tänavu tõenäoliseks intressimäära tõstmist rohkem kui kahel korral (2010.a lõpus oli ootuseks jämedalt üks tõstmine). Samal ajal on aga turg võrreldes 2010.a lõpuga vähendanud oma ootusi FED-i intressi tõstmise osas. See olnud üheks toetavaks faktoriks euro tugevnemisel dollari vastu.

    MS-i taktikaline euro short idee jooksis küll liiva, kuid analüüsimaja jääb eurotsooni võlaprobleemide osas jätkuvalt negatiivsele arvamusele ning nüüdsest ollakse lühikese positsooni võtmisel ettevaatlikumad ning otsitakse sisenemise kohta pealpool 1,39 taset.
    The shifting outlook on the ECB is not just a byproduct of a more buoyant Euro-area economic outlook, but also the moderation of concerns about sovereign risk in the wake of this month’s over-subscribed auctions. A continuing easing of sovereign concerns would allow the ECB to gradually withdraw its support buying of peripheral European bonds, making it easier for them to shift to a tighter monetary policy. But, here too, we think the market will be disappointed.

    The European community and IMF have jointly put in place adequate facilities to secure financing of most peripheral European bond rollovers for the next two-three years. But then what? Exhibit 4 shows why the sovereign situation is not likely to materially improve in the next few years. The key problem is that most European sovereigns’ borrowing costs are higher than nominal GDP growth – and in some cases like Greece and Ireland considerably more. Under these circumstances, it will be very difficult to see any reduction in debt/GDP ratios.

    We think that it is only a matter of time before an event emerges that forces the market to refocus on the still-dim long-term debt situation. The coming Irish elections are a key risk event but there is also the ongoing possibility of an auction failing. As with a weaker growth outlook, a resurgence of sovereign concerns would force the market to push back expectations for ECB hikes which should spark renewed EUR weakness.
  • Mongoolia aktsiaturul on küll hullus lahti läinud. 2011. aasta tootlus aasta algusest on tänase seisuga +65%. Sealne aktsiaturg on küll väga ebalikviidne, aga kui üks frontier aktsiaturg nii lühikese ajaga nii palju tõuseb, siis tekib küll küsimus, et kas investorid ei ole juba liiga optimistlikuks muutunud.

  • Tulemuste tabel taas täiendatud ning nähtav siin.
  • Euroopa keskpanga president Jean-Claude Trichet ütles Davoses peetaval konverentsil, et "kuigi mõnel Euroopa riigil on lahendamist vajavad probleemid, ei ole euro ise kriisis". "No European currency crisis. That is absolutely obvious."
  • Elu Hispaanias pole kerge - tööpuudus jätkas 4. kvartalis kasvamist:

    Spain Q4 Unemployment Rate 20.33% vs 19.79% in Q3
  • Seoses mässudega on Egiptuse valitsus (väidetavalt) interneti kinni pannud. Täpsemalt saab lugeda siit.
    Confirming what a few have reported this evening: in an action unprecedented in Internet history, the Egyptian government appears to have ordered service providers to shut down all international connections to the Internet. Critical European-Asian fiber-optic routes through Egypt appear to be unaffected for now. But every Egyptian provider, every business, bank, Internet cafe, website, school, embassy, and government office that relied on the big four Egyptian ISPs for their Internet connectivity is now cut off from the rest of the world. Link Egypt, Vodafone/Raya, Telecom Egypt, Etisalat Misr, and all their customers and partners are, for the moment, off the air.
  • Q4 GDP- Advanced +3.2% vs +3.7% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.6%
    Q4 Chain Deflator- advanced +0.3% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q2 +2.1%
  • Täna on Morgan Stanely analüütikud väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega ITT Educational Services (ESI) kohta.
    Morgan Stanley alandab ESI reitingu „hoia“ pealt“ müü“ peale koos $55 hinnasihiga.

    Following an 11% rise in ESI shares since earnings, we are cutting our rating to Underweight and establish a price target of $55. In our view, current valuation does not capture long-term risks. We believe that regardless of the outcome of gainful employment (GE), ESI faces outsized headwinds from rising kohort default rates (CDRs) and a largely fixed cost structure, which is likely to impair future earnings growth.

    Analüütikute arvates ei peegelda aktsia praegune hinnatase võimalikke riske tulevikus ja vaatamata sellele, millises vormis tuleb uus GE regulatsioon, siis ESI seisab silmitsi ka kallinevate CDR määradega ning fikseeritud kulude struktuuriga, mis tõenäoliselt mõjutab firma tulude poolt.

    Major pressure on operating leverage: As enrollment growth declines, we expect ESI to face significant earnings pressure. The company has operated with one of the laanest cost structures of the publicly traded for-profits (and highest margin) and we expect it will find cost cutting difficult particularly given the need to improve its student outcomes;
    • While we see 2011 guidance as realistic, we see heightened risk for 2012 and beyond, and believe valuation is not attractive on longer-term multiples.

    Analüütikud prognoosivad, et firma marginaalid satuvad suure surve alla, kuna siiani on ettevõttel nii kulupool kui ka marginaalid olnud kõige kõrgemad sektoris, aga nüüd kus õpilaste arv on vähemaks jäänud, aga samas on nende taset vaja parandada on firmal väga keeruline oma kulusid olulisel määral kärpida.

    ESI nagu kõik teisedki haridussektori aktsiad on olnud müügisurve all juba pikemat aega. Selge on see, et kõiki firmasid ühe puuga mõõta ja mõned on teistest veelgi halvemas olukorras ja Morgan Stanely analüütikute sõnul on ESI üheks neist. Morgan Stanley on antud sektorit siiani üsna edukalt katnud ja tänane „müü“ reiting võib tekitada turuosalistel müügimeeleolud küll.

  • Möödunud nädalal on USA väikeinvestorid jätkanud oma usu kaotamist aktsiaturgude edasise tõusu osas järgmisel kuuel kuul, kuid nagu näha, siis püsib indeks ajaloolises kontekstis jätkuvalt kõrgel tasemel. Bullish sentimendi osakaal vähenes nädalaga 8,7 protsendipunkti 42% peale ja bearish sentimendi oskaal suurenes 5,2% protsendipunkti 34,3% peale.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: INFN -17.9% (also downgrades to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), PMCS -14.5%, THOR -12.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird), DRIV -8.5%, MWW -8.4%, AMZN -7.8% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair), F -6.9%, TSRA -5.7%, CRBC -5.7%, ZOLL -4.8% (also removed from Best Ideas List at Wedbush), ACI -4.3%, VPRT -2.7%, SNDK -2%, MYGN -1.8% (ticking lower; also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), CPWR -1.5% (light volume), MCRL -0.7%.

    Select European financial related names showing weakness: LYG -3.5%, BCS -1.4%, HBC -1.3%, PUK -1.1%, RBS -1.0%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: GFI -2.5%, RIO -2.1%, BBL -1.8%, BHP -1.5%, GBG -1.1%, AU -1.0%, MT -0.8%.

    Select oil/gas related names under pressure: CEO -4.9%, SSN -4.0%, SDRL -1.1%, SSL -1.1%, MRO -1.0%, STO -0.9%, TOT -0.8%, BP -0.7%.

    Coal names ticking lower following ACI results: PCX -1.1%, BTU -0.9%, WLT -0.8%, ANR -0.5%.

    Select auto names under pressure following Ford results: TTM -2.3%, GM -2.2%, HMC -1.7%, TM -1.5%,

    Other news: GOOD -4.7% (Gladstone Commercial announces that it plans to sell 675K shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), BPL -4.6% (commences a secondary public offering of 4,250,000 limited partner units representing limited partnership interests owned by BGH GP Holdings, LLC), SNY -3.5% (reports randomized Phase III trial evaluating iniparib in patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer did not meet the pre-specified criteria for significance for co-primary endpoints of overall survival and progression-free survival), GSK -2.6% (hearing stopped development of insomnia medical device), BSX -2.2% (reports that the DoJ is suing the co and Guidant over defective heart devices), NILE -1.8% (ticking lower with AMZN).

    Analyst comments: BKI -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), JBLU -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Soleil), PLD -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), TWC -0.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Wunderlich).
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OPLK +30.4%, OPNT +15.9% (ticking higher), TNAV +13.3%, COHR +11.7%, CBAK +10.6% (light volume), ARAY +9.3%, LSCC +8.8%, SCSC +7.2%, VSEA +6.1%, CPSI +4.8%, INFA +4.4%, RVBD +3.9%, CPHD +3.4%, BXS +3.1%, RMBS +2.5%, FNF +2.5%, KLAC +0.9%, QLGC +0.9% (light volume), .

    M&A news: TMRK +35.6% (Verizon to acquire Terremark for $19/share or $1.4 bln).

    A few TMRK peers are getting boost following VZ/TMRK takeover news: SVVS +9.1%, INAP +7.7%, EQIX +4.9%.

    Other news: BGP +34% (receives refinancing commitment of $550 mln from GE Capital), SVA +9.4% (still checking), AVL +7.8% (reports increase in indicated resources in the Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit, NWT), NUE +1.1% and FFIV +0.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: VTR +0% (initiated with an Outperform at Cowen), MRNA +8.2% (initiated with a Strong Speculative Buy at LifeTech Capital), MDT +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), HUN +0.8% (initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie).

  • Embrace the Madness
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/28/2011 8:55 AM EST

    If you don't like something, change it. If you can't change it, change your attitude.
    --Maya Angelou

    Earnings reports from Amazon (AMZN) , Microsoft (MSFT) and Ford (F) are being greeted with some selling, but nothing really seems to bother this market very much. I must admit that it's become rather difficult to write about this action, since nothing much seems to change. The selloffs in Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have been forgotten, and the bulls are once again secure in their collective belief that this market will endlessly continue going straight upward.

    I probably shouldn't complain, as this has meant a good supply long trades. In fact, the biggest frustration for many traders is that the stocks they sell for a profit just keep running higher. With that in mind, though, it'd be nice to have a little variety and some more opportunities.

    Basically we have two choices with this market. We can stay focused on negatives and keep looking for reasons that the market is going to reverse at any moment, or we can embrace the strength and try to make money by trading it. I'm sure I don't have to tell you which approach has been working better, but that doesn't mean it's been easy. Any rational market player has to wonder how long this can continue. You have to worry, at least a little bit, about being caught in a sudden reversal. But any such doubts have been costly.

    Long-only market players often have a big advantage in a market environment like this, not only because they are staying with the trend, but because they don't waste any time anticipating shorts. They just keep looking for long trades and spend far less time worrying about the possibility that the market is going to reverse. Even when it does weaken, they stay focused on finding new buys, and that pays off quite well when the market quickly reverses to climb once again. When the market only goes one way, being a sophisticated investor who plays the market in both directions can be a handicap.

    The best advice I can give is the same as what I've given for some time. Don't try to anticipate market weakness, but wait for some actual weakness to occur before you become more bearish. You'll end up taking some losses if stocks have a sudden reversal, but the likelihood is that you'll make enough profits in the near term to provide a big safe cushion.

    As I keep emphasizing, the worst possible approach to this market would be constantly looking for it to top out. It should be pretty clear that logical arguments on this subject aren't working. This market really doesn't care what we think about the way it is acting. It is going to do what it pleases, and we'd just better be ready to react.

    It all boils down to whether you want to anticipate or do you want to react. The advantage of anticipating is that maybe you will have good timing and escape at the exact moment the market turns. Unfortunately this market has been riddled with the carnage of bears who were positive a change in trend would occur at any moment.

    In short, this market is like walking the high wire. It is hard not to be a little nervous and worried, but if you stop and worry for too long, you're likely to suffer some damage.

    We're set to see a flat open and will have plenty of earnings to digest. Don't forget it's also the end of the month, and that tends to give us some positive seasonality.

    No positions.
  • USA dollar on pärast SKT avaldamise esmast hüppelist reaktsiooni saamas tuge: EURUSD -0,3% ja kaupleb 1,3690 juures.
  • Usa indeksite futuurid on hetkel liikumas 0,05-0,25% rohelises. Nafta +0,55% @ 86,09 USD, kuld -0,42% @1312,7 USD, EUR/USD -0,25% @ 1,3698 USD.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0,11%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,02%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,92%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,21%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,09%
    Venemaa MICEX -0,71%
    Poola WIG -0,27%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,13%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,68%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,13%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,89%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,22%
    Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,65%
    Tai Set 50 -0,65%
    India Sensex 30 -1,54%
  • January University of Michigan Sentiment- final 74.2 vs 73.2 consensus; prelim 72.7
  • Egiptuses toimuvat on võimalik Al Jazeera vahendusel otsepildis vaadata/kuulata siit.
  • BCD Semiconductor IPO opens for trading at $10.50 after pricing at $10.50
    Sümbol BCDS
  • Hiina langetas osade elektroonikakaupade nagu näiteks laptopide ja digikaamerate imporditariife 50%. Rahandusministeeriumi teatel langetati tariif 20% pealt 10% peale. Muutus peaks kasuks tulema suurtele tehnoloogiaettevõtetele nagu Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) ja Dell (DELL), kelle tooted muutuvad odavamaks, mistõttu oodatakse neilt müügi kasvu maailma kõige kiiremini kasvaval IT-turul. Näiteks iPadi impordimaks oli algselt 1000 jüaani, mis tegi 16GB iPadi $150 võrra kallimaks kui USAs. Uute tariifide järgi on maksu suuruseks 500 jüaani. (link)
  • Euro on jalgealust kaotamas kõikide peamiste valuutade suhtes: EURAUD -0,82%; EURCAD -0,25%; EURCHF -0,74%; EURGBP -0,06%; EURJPY -1,36%; EURUSD -0,55%.
  • ESI avanes täna natule liiga all, aga sellele vaatamata oli seal ca ühte punkti väärt liikumine sees. Aktsia avanes $67,20 kandis ehk 3% miinuses ning kukkus seejärel kiirelt $66 tasemele, aga sealt tõusis kohe ka tagasi avanemistaseme kanti ning on sinna ka nüüd paigale jäänud kaubeldes uuesti $67,10 kandis.

  • Egiptuse rahutused on nüüd turul optimismilaine võnkuma löönud. Rahutused toimuvad mitmetes linnades korraga ja kui ma nüüd õigest aru sain, siis Eesti aja järgi kell 18 kehtestatakse Egiptuse linnades liikumiskeeld.

    Egiptus on tänu Suezi väinale väga oluline ka naftatankerite liikumiseks ning rahutused Egiptuses on naftahinda kiiresti ülespoole kerkima pannud.
  • The Fed purchased $8.36 bln of 2018-2020 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $20.20 bln
  • Velti IPO opens for trading at $15 after pricing IPO at $12
    Sümbol VELT
  • @SherineT: 5 army tanks heading towards central suez reports AJ Jamal El Shayyal #Jan25 #Egypt
  • al jazeera andmetel on sõjavägi kustustud appi politseile
    mubarak pidi esinema kõnega täna
  • Veel Egiptusest: võimul oleva National Democratic Party peahoone on leekides.
  • Euro on aga jätkamas langust: EURUSD -0,95% ja kaubeldakse $1,36 piiril.
    USA dollar on samas jeeni vastu kukkunud 1,1% (81,99).
  • Tur päris mõnusalt kukkunud. Mida inimesed kardavad? Uut suurt sõda?
  • 25. jaanuari börsipäeva foorumis kirjutasin, et ootan kinnisvarahindade langust ka tulevatel kuudel ning põhjuseks tõin tõusva 30-aastase hüpoteeklaenu intressimäära.

    Täna on arvamust toetamas ka Goldman Sachi analüütikud, kes prognoosivad „põhjast tõusnud“ kinnisvaraturu olulist raugemist. Kui olemasoleva kinnisvara müük kasvas novembris 6.8% ja detsembris 11.8% ning uute majade müük tõusis koguni 17.5%, siis paraku pärines suur osa sellest kasvust lääneosariikidest. Nimelt aegusid möödunud aasta lõpu seisuga California osariigi maksusoodustused ehk kahjuks ei olnud tegemist pikaajalise nõudluse kasvuga. Goldmani suurimaks pinnuks silmas on aga hüpoteeklaenu taotlused, mis on viimase 3 nädala jooksul vähenenud 14%. Kui nüüd heita pilk allolevale graafikule, siis saab kiiresti selgeks, et olukorra üle rõõmu ei saa kindlasti mitte tunda – graafikul on kujutatud olemasolevate majade müügi kuine muutus ning hüpoteeklaenu taotluste muutus. Kuna taotlusi peetakse juhtivaks indikaatoriks, siis seose põhjal võib oodata märgatavat müügitempo langust. Goldman Sachs prognoosib koostatud mudelite põhjal olemasolevate majade müügikasvuks jaanuaris 2%, kuid veebruaris peaks müük langema juba ca 4%.

  • Vaade ka Egiptuse aktsiaturgudele - EGX30 indeks on 5. jaanuari tipust langenud 21.69%.

  • youtube pakub Egiptuse kohta huviatavaid videosid. Suvalised, mis silma hakkasid ehk youtube higlights. Kel suurem huvi, surfake ringi ja jälgige kuupäevi.
    25 January 2011 Protests - مظاهرات ٢٥ يناير في القاهرة
    من مظاهرات يوم الغضب - شاب شجاع جدا
    Talaat Harb Street- 26-Jan-2011-9-00 PM-13
    Protests 26 Jan - مظاهرات ٢٦ يناير
    يوم الغضب 26/11/2010 بالمنصورة - شارع قناة السويس

    Siin on põhiliselt 25, 26 jaanuar videod. Kindlasti on ka värskemad, sest internet võeti ära alles eile.
  • 16:00 Egiptuse=Tallinna aja järgi peaks algama uus liikumiskeeld. Arvestades pilti Aljazeerast, siis keegi sellest kinni ei pea.
  • * 20 minutit liikumiskeeluni ja kümned tuhanded on kogunenud tänavale.
    * Väidetavalt avas politsei ca 1000 inimese vastu tule kes üritasid siseministeeriumi (olulisim ministeerium) rünnata
  • * Political prisoners have been murdered in prison. Heavy gunfire heard outside bank. Curfew is in less than 15 minutes. #Egypt #Jan25 #Jan29
  • SultanAlQassemi Al Jazeera reporter: "I received calls from hospitals in Egypt by doctors telling me they have been told not to record deaths by bullets" about 1 hour ago via web Retweeted by Farrah3m and 100+ others

    Postitatu täna 15:21

    Mubarak ütles, et ta laseb valitsuse lahti ja määrab uue, kuid tema ise jääb. Punkt. Seega, asi läheb vereni.
  • Kõige lollikindlam - http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Egypt%20%23Jan29

    - People are cleaning up trash on the streets. Amazing. I have never seen anything like this. #Egypt
    - Now. Eyewitness man shot with live ammunition at Ministry of Interior. Body being carried by protesters. #Jan25 #Jan28
    - Looters destroy mummies in Egyptian Museum :official . #Jan25 #Mubarak #Tunis #Cairo #Egypt http://tinyurl.com/72e45x
    - Latest images from protests in #Cairo http://twitpic.com/3uik19

    - dgrej militarys (will transition) are with the people rumors mubaraq fled or is dead Egypt REVOLUTION #egypt #jan29 the Day of Bastille Egyptian 3 minutes ago via TweetDeck
  • Omar Suleiman määrati asepresidendiks.
  • Tõenäoliselt võimu üle andmise algus
  • * Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who has not picked a vice president since his took office in 1981, appointed his intelligence chief and confidante Omar Suleiman to the post, the official news agency said on Saturday.
    * The vice president is the post that Mubarark occupied before he was appointed president.

  • The Telegraph kirjutab, et USA valitsus on salaja toetanud protestijate liidreid.
    The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned.

    Samal ajal pakutakse Egiptuse valitsusele igal aastal umbes $1,3 miljardi eest sõjalist toetust.
  • Peaministriks on määratud Ahmad Shafiq. Kunagine õhjõudude ülem ja eelmise valitsuse aviation minister.

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