Börsipäev 8. veebruar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 8. veebruar

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  • Nädal globaalsetel börsidel on suurendanud taas investorite riskiisu, kui euro on pärast ECB kohtumist leidnud taas ostjaid ning suurenenud on lootus, et protestiavaldused Egiptuses ei kujune enam nõnda vägivaldseks nagu möödunud nädalal.
    S&P500 sulgus eile 0,6% kõrgemal, tehes uue 2,5 aasta tipu. Samasugust optimismi leidus ka Euroopa börsidel, kus näiteks DAX jõudis 3a tippu. Hetkel on USA futuurid kauplemas kerges plussis.Ainsaks uudiseks tänases makrokalendris saab olema Saksamaa detsembrikuu tööstustoodangu muutus, mis tuleb avaldamisele kell 13.00.
  • Kell 11.00 teeme finantsportaali lehele restardi, mis peaks vältama mõne minuti. Paluks sel hetkel postitamistega oodata
  • olime sunnitud restardi edasi lükkama 11.30 peale. Vabandame ebamugavuse pärast
  • Hiina tõstab intressimäärasid 25 baaspunkti võrra. Link.
  • Oluline on siinkohal ka see, et tegu oli plaanivälise tõstmisega.
  • Saksamaa detsembrikuu tööstustoodang -1,5% vs oodatud 0,2% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes 10,0% vs oodatud 11,5% (Y/Y). Hiina intressimäära tõstmine ega Saksamaa tulemused ei ole eurole negatiivset mõju avaldamas: euro kauplemas 0,6% avanemistasemest kõrgemal päeva tipus $1,3665 juures.
  • Hiina intressimäära tõstmine mõjutab enim Austraalia dollarit, mis on hetkel kauplemas punases kõikide peamiste valuutade vastu. Neist enim Uus-Meremaa dollari ja euro vastu, vastavalt 0,75% ja 0,6%.
  • Vishay (VSH) beats by $0.04, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus

    Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.48 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.04 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.44; revenues rose 13.4% year/year to $688.6 mln vs the $669.5 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q1, sees Q1 revs of $675-715 mln vs. $662.17 mln Thomson Reuters consensus. "During the fourth quarter, we completed a repurchase of 21.7 million shares of our common stock, demonstrating our confidence in the long-term prospects of Vishay and our commitment to creating long-term value for our stockholders. Our healthy balance sheet and strong cash flow generation allowed us to use a low-coupon convertible debenture offering to finance the buy-back, which was more efficient than using our cash, most of which is off-shore."

    Analüüsimajade poolt on 3 osta ja 3 hoia soovitust, hind on jõudnud street high tasemele. Kui muidu väga ilusad numbrid, siis kõrgelt ostma minna ei tasu. Reaktsioon võib jääda kesiseks.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: XIDE +18.6%, KND +7.8% (also plans to acquire RehabCare; KND to issue ~12 mln shares in connection to transaction), CSPI +7.5% (thinly traded), TTHI +4.7% (thinly traded), MT +4.7%, ELN +3.8%, SNCR +2.7%, AHL +2.6%, ADVS +2.5%, UBS +1.9%, TM +1.1% (light volume).

    M&A news: RHB +39.5% (RehabCare to be acquired by Kindred Healthcare for ~$35/share; KND to issue ~12 mln shares in connection to transaction), CNXT +17.9% (receives an unsolicited, written proposal from a private equity firm, Golden Gate Private Equity, to acquire co at a price in the range of $2.35 to $2.45 per share in cash), HRLY +16% (to be acquired by Kratos Defense & Security Solutions for $19/share in cash), CL +1.0% (ticking higher following analyst commentary suggesting Unilever should consider takeover of the company).

    Select auto related names boosted by TM results: MOTR +4.0%, F +2.2%, ALV +1.1%.

    Other news: OCLS +46.7% (received a new FDA 510(k) clearance for its uniquely formulated Microcyn-based Epicyn HydroGel), BYD +4% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), SOMX +3.4% (announces sales force expansion and $15 mln revolving line of credit), MGM +2.4% (early strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), SA +2.4% (reports major new gold/copper resource at KSM's Iron Cap Zone), ICO +2.4% (continued strength from takeover speculation), AIG +1.5% (still checking), REE +1.3% (upbeat after posting findings from 16 drilling holes), LULU +1.9%, HAIN +1.3% and COH +0.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MCD +0.7% (reported Jan comps).

    Analyst comments: CSL +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at SunTrust), SNDK +1.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee), PXD +1.1% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna), AMZN +0.7% (initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo), TGT +0% (initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • Täna on Merrill Lynchi analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega MGM Resorts (MGM) ja Boyd Gaming (BYD) kohta.
    Merrill Lynch tõstab nii MGM-i reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja BYD-i „müü“ pealt „osta“ peale ning hinnasihtideks vastavalt $21 ja $16.

    Room demand rebounding sharply… key to the turn LVS noted on its 4Q call that ‘11 group bookings are up 100%+ vs. this point LY for ’10, and est. group rooms of 781K in ’12 with ADR up 10%+. HOT noted Dec. “crushed” the monthly bookings record, group pace up double-digits in ‘11, and longer booking windows. MGM is no different and we don’t want to miss the turn.
    A number of catalysts should drive MGM shares in 2011 In addition to our belief that MGM’s estimates have finally bottomed, catalysts include: 1) a 4Q EBITDA beat (our $317M vs. Street’s $286M) that could be the first in 21 quarters, 2) sequential EBITDA acceleration in 4Q and 2011 as 4Q could be the first Y/Y growth in 3+ years, 3) favorable monthly Las Vegas gaming results, and 4) strategic moves including a Borgata sale.
    MGM remains volatile and sentiment-driven, but the trend is up..

    Analüütikud usuvad MGM puhul, et väga positiivsed muutused Las Vegas Sands ( LVS) ja Starwood (HOT)-s on ilmselged märgid sellest, et ka MGM on tõusuteel.
    Analüütikute sõnul on MGM jaoks nüüd halvemad ajad möödas ning 2011. aastal peaks aktsia jaoks olema piisavalt tõusuruumi varuks. Kuigi MGM jääb endiselt väga volatiilseks, siis trend on analüütikute arvates siiski üles.

    Upgrade to Buy: derivative way to play a Vegas recovery. Las Vegas is recovering and we believe Boyd is a derivative way to play the recovery with nearly 50% of total EBITDA coming from the Las Vegas Locals and Downtown markets. We upgraded MGM to BUY this morning on the Las Vegas recovery potential, and BYD eventually should benefit from the same trends.
    Significant earnings recovery potential . Boyd’s 2010E adj. EBITDA of $323M is down 43% from its peak of $564M in 2006 with Las Vegas Locals EBITDA down 55%. We think Locals fundamentals should improve as the Strip recovery trickles down to the local economy, even before regional employment and housing begin to recovery.y.

    Ka BYD puhul usuvad analüütikud, et firma peaks võtma oma osa Las Vegase taastumisest, kuna ligi pool tulust tuleb just sealt.

    Merrill Lynchi call jäi mulle silma sest: 1) mõlema aktsia hinnasihi puhul on tegemist uue street high`ga 2) mõlemas aktsias on sees märkimisväärne kogus lühikeseksmüüjaid 3) märgid sektori paranemisest on juba mõnda aega ning nagu Merrilli analüütikud ütlevad, BYD ja MGM võiksid võtta sealt oma osa.
    Hetkel kaupleb MGM eelturul 3,8% ja BYD 4,8% plusspoolel, on võimalus, et avanemisel pakutakse soodsamaid tasemeid.

  • Fed's Lacker says improvement in economy suggests need to reevaluate QE2, according to CNBC
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BR -8%, GLUU -7.2%, BZH -4.6%, PFG -4.4%, BDX -4.3%, (also announces agreement to acquire Accuri Cytometers), WMG -4% (light volume), FMC -3.8%, AVP -3.5%, KTOS -3.4% (also plans to acquire Herley Industries, announces proposed public offering of common stock), ALLT -3%, TEVA -3%, VECO -2.5%, NYX -2.3%, CVH -2.1% (ticking lower).

    M&A news: KTOS -3.2% (Herley Industries to be acquired by Kratos Defense & Security Solutions for $19/share in cash).

    Other news: XPRT -29.4% (announces extended waiver of compliance with debt covenants and receipt of indication of interest to acquire the firm), OPXA -15.6% (prices public offering of common stock and warrants; prices 4,146,500 units at a price to the public of $2.05 per unit), EPCT -7.1% (to raise $7.1 mln in registered direct offering), PNNT -5.2% (priced an 8 mln share common stock offering at $12.40/share), TCAP -4.8% (announces commencement of public offering of 2.5 mln shares of common stock), OLP -4.5% (announces that it is offering 2.7 mln shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), BBEP -4.4% (commences 4 mln share common unit offering representing limited partner interests in the Part), AIXG -2.8% (trading lower following VECO results), NDAQ -2.4% (still checking), ARMH -2% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), GNW -1.5% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), FSLR -1.3% (lower following tier 1 firm downgrade).

    Analyst comments: AMLN -4.2% (initiated with a Sell at Goldman), AFL -1.2% (downgraded to Hold on near-term uncertainty at Citigroup).
  • Morgan Stanley on täna väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega First Solar (FSLR) kohta.
    Morgan Stanely alandab FSLR-i reitingu „osta“ pealt „hoia“ peale.

    Downgrading FSLR to Equal-weight post our new global solar supply/demand analysis and given recent strong share price performance. 1) We have turned more negative on the supply/demand outlook for the global solar PV industry based on our analysis of the Italian and German markets, the largest globally in 2010 2) We view FSLR’s risk-reward profile as more balanced today following the strong performance of the solar group over the past 6 weeks and given deteriorating solar industry fundamentals. FSLR remains our favoriite long-term idea in clean tech; however, we believe there will be a better entry point in the coming months.

    Põhinedes oma analüüsidele nõudluse/pakkumise osas Itaalia ja Saksamaa turul ütlevad analüütikud, et nad näevad märke negatiivsest trendist. Nende arvates on FSLR jõudnud hetkel oma õiglasele tasemele arvestades viimase 6 nädala hinnarallit ning üleüldisi fundamentaalsed näitajaid solari sektoris.
    Recent strong performance has been due to macro factors… Solar stocks have outperformed the market significantly YTD (FSLR is up ~21% YTD). We believe one of the key reasons for this is the strong macro backdrop: 1) Oil prices have risen, which has resulted in multiple expansion across the sector as many investors look for an oil hedge. 2) The dollar/euro exchange rate has increased from $1.30 to 1.37 since the beginning of the year, which is positive for the industry as 65-70% of sales are expected to be in Europe.
    …but fundamentals are looking more challenging…’

    Key Takeaways from our global solar note:Lower shipments: We now expect global shipments to decline by 12% in 20112) Higher supply of polysilicon: Due to debottlenecking activities at leading silicon producers, we now expect up to 30GW of modules in 2011 3) Lower product pricing: We now expect module prices to decline to $1.32 by 4Q11, compared with earlier expectation of $1.35

    Analüütikud ütlevad, et hiljutine tõus solari sektoris põhineb peamiselt makrol: nafta hind on tõusnud ning investorid on otsinud võimalusi riske katta ja USD/EUR kurss on samuti tõusnud, mis on kasulik kogu sektorile, kuna üle poole müügist toimub Euroopasse.
    Samas prognoosivad aga analüütikud muutusi: Vähenev kaubavedu, polükristalse räni pakkumise kasvu ja moodulite hinna vähenemist.

    Lühikeseks müümine on viimasel ajal olnud üsna piinarikas, aga Morgan Stanley negatiivne reitingumuutus siiski võib täna turuosaliste tähelepanu võita, sest solarite sektor on pikka aega tule all olnud, aga FSLR on üldiselt olnud analüütikute lemmik ja tänane Morgan Stanley downgrade võib tekitada investorites kasum lukku panna.

  • Steadily Climbing the Wall of Worry
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/8/2011 9:11 AM EST

    "Confidence comes not from always being right but from not fearing to be wrong."

    -- Peter T. Mcintyre

    On Monday, the market continued to build on the stunning uptrend that has been in place since the beginning of September. The strength of the early buying was particularly interesting, even though the market is quite technically extended. We had a couple weeks of softness in November but other than that it has been an amazingly consistent and smooth climb to the highest point since 2008.

    There isn't much new that can be said about this action. The momentum has crushed all negatives and fighting it has been an exercise in futility. The top callers keep doing their thing and it has cost them tremendously. One of these days they will be right, and the market will find a reason to correct. But trying to time it with any precision is obviously an impossible task.

    One thing that has given this uptrend such a unusual feel is that the mood of most market players has remained rather sedate. We haven't had the wild euphoria and the rush of new participants that past rallies of this magnitude have produced. Sentiment has remained quite sedate throughout this run, which is part of the reason it keeps going.

    I touched on this yesterday, but it is worth contemplating further. The reason we don't have this great surge in positive sentiment is that many market players are still dealing with the fallout of the great recession. They just don't have the confidence to really be bullish about the market because they are still dealing with other economic issues. Almost everyone has been touched by the economic carnage of the last few years in some way whether through job losses, reduced business income, underwater mortgages, real estate losses or stock market losses.

    The flying stock market has helped some folks but it has done little to cure all those other economic ills out there. In fact, it has probably caused frustration for many who are still looking for jobs or trying to deal with a home that has no equity. Individuals aren't going to be excited about the market no matter how strong it is unless they first feel better about their own circumstances and have the confidence to venture back into the market.

    A big reason the market is flying is that the Fed is trying to inflate it so that folks will feel more confident about the economy. The Fed doesn't have the tools to fix unemployment or real estate, so it focuses on the markets. Unfortunately, the inflated stock market isn't helping the average person all that much. It is rewarding the investment class that knows what to do with all the cheap money the Fed is giving them.

    Unfortunately, this situation is that it has helped to create a huge wall of worry for the market to climb. While individuals have a very high level of distrust, they still see the market going up every day, so they slow inch in because they are tired of missing out. The more the market climbs, the more they slowly do a little buying. They may believe that another shoe is going to drop, but they don't want to be left out just in case they are wrong.

    In my lifetime, I have never experienced this sort of market sentiment before. We have seen other major market corrections in the past but the damage was limited to just the stock market. The correction in 2000 was almost completely limited to stocks but real estate started a huge run, which made people feel much more secure and confident about investing.

    Every day, Jim Cramer gives a litany of positives about this market. The problem is that too many people just don't feel positive about their own circumstances and that is holding them back from really embracing stocks. We just slowly and steadily climb a wall of worry as frustrated investors scratch their heads and do a little buying just in case.

    This morning, we are seeing some slight weakness as China raised interest rates overnight. We have quickly shrugged that off the last few times but in this market, any weakness is an opportunity to buy, so we'll see how quickly the dip-buyers jump in once again.
  • NB! 17.00 teeme Finantsportaalis kiire restardi, et uued fixid peale panna
  • The Fed purchased $2.19 bln of 2028-2040 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $9.39 bln
  • Täna võiks öelda, et nii MGM kui ka BYD tegid väga kena liikumise. Mõlemad aktsiad osteti eelturul üsna tugevalt plussi ( BYD +8,5% ja MGM +4,5%), aga peale avanemist tuli väike langus MGM-l $15,50 ja BYD $11,90 kanti. Sealt edasi liikusid aktsiad uute tippudeni, kus BYD käis ära ka $12,60 ja MGM $15,90 peal. Hetkel kaupleb MGM $15,80 kandis ehk 5,5% plusspoolel ja BYD $12,30 peal ehk 11,50 % plussis.

    Nagu hommikul öeldud, lühikeseks müümine on viimasel ajal üsna piinarikas olnud ja täna tõestas FSLR seda veel kord. Aktsia avanes ca 2% all 156,30 kandis, aga sealt on FSLR taastunud ning hetkel kaupleb $157,30 peal ehk 1,3% miinuspoolel. Ka täna jättis turuosalised negatiivne reitingumuutus suhteliselt külmaks.

  • $32 bln 3-yr Note Auction Results: 1.349% (Expected 1.345%); Bid/Cover 3.01x (Prior 3.06x, 10-auction avg 3.15x); Indirect Bidders 27.6% (Prior 39.4%, 10-auction avg 41.3%)
  • CoreLogic teatas, et majade hinnaindeks langes detsembris võrreldes novembriga 1.8%, tegu on viienda järjestikuse languskuuga. Võrreldes 2009. Aasta detsembriga langesid hinnad 5.46%. CoreLogic’u analüütiku Mark Flemingi sõnul jätkavad hinnad liigse varu tõttulangemist, kuid positiivne on see, et languse kiirus on vähenemas. Indeks on oma tipust 31.6% madalamal ning 2009. aasta märtsi põhjast kõigest 0.07% kõrgemal. (link)
  • Dow Jones Industrial indeks tõusis täna seitsmendat päeva järjest, jõudes kõrgeimale tasemele 2008. aasta juunist. Tegu on pikima tõusuperioodiga alates eelmise aasta juulist. Seitsme päevaga on indeks tõusnud ca 3.5%.
  • ...NYSE käive veebruaris olnud selgelt langustrendis ning täna osutus käive 2011. aasta madalaimaks.
  • RBC Capital Markets üksus on täna, enne PBoC otsust tõsta baasintressimäära 25 baaspunkti võrra, avaldanud raporti, milles hakkas silma allolev graafik. Sisuliselt ei ole keskpank 2002. aastast saati baasintressimäära tõsnud uue aasta esimese kahe kuu jooksul (teatavasti peeti Hiinas möödunud nädalal uusaastapidustusi), mistõttu ei näinud paljud analüüsimajad otsust ette. RBC hinnangul tõstab keskpank käesoleval aastal veel vähemalt 50 baaspunkti võrra.

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