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Börsipäev 14. veebruar

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  • Tänane makrokalender kuigi olulisi uudiseid endas ei hõlma, kui peamine fookus võiks langeda eurogrupi kohtumisele. Rahandusministrite tänasel ja homsel kohtumisel ei ole küll konkreetset päevakava, ent suure tõenäosusega kujuneb põhiteemaks loodava päästemehhanismi erinevad võimalused, mida eeldatavalt kuulutatakse välja EL-i nõukogu kohtumisel 24-25 märts.
    Kell 12.00 avalikustatakse eurotsooni detsembrikuu tööstustoodangu muutus ning tund enne USA turgude sulgumist tehakse teatavaks tarbijakrediidi muutus.
  • Euro on uut nädalat alustanud tugeva langusega: EURUSD -0,6% ja kaupleb 1,3468 tasemel. Euro on languses ka teiste peamiste valuutade suhtes.
  • Eurotsooni detsembrikuu tööstustoodang -0,1% vs oodatud 0,0% (M/M) ja aastases lõikes tuli kasv vastavalt ootustele 8%.
    Eurole on aga uut survet avaldamas Portugali IV kvartali 0,3% SKT langus (Q/Q). Euro kauplemas 0,69% madalamal $1,3456 taseme juures, kus kaubeldi viimati 21. jaanuaril.
  • Motricity (MOTR): Carl Icahn discloses 15.7% stake in 13G filing
    Reede reageeris esimese hooga ~punkti kõrgemale
  • Nokia uudise taustal, mis ilmselgelt pole turuosalistele meelt mööda, on sellevõrra endale poolehoidjaid võitmas Research In Motion (RIMM).
    Tänane Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et kõigi eelduste kohaselt peaks firma oma tahvelarvuti PlayBook`ga märtsis või aprillis välja tulema, vaatamata sellele, et eelnevalt on spekuleeritud võimalikust hilinemisest.
    Mõned analüütikud on RIM-i uue toote suhtes olnud suhteliselt skeptilised ja kahtlevad, kas PlayBook`il on võimu Apple`i iPadiga võistelda. Samas on RIM`i tahvelarvutil mitmeid omadusi, mida iPad ei paku: näiteks võimaldab PlayBook kasutada populaarset Adobe Systems`i flash tarkvara.
    Paraku keeldus Balsillie ütlemast, kas PlayBook kasutab Android OS-i.
  • Power-One (PWER) initiated with Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald
  • Gapping up:
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STEC +6.8%, TSEM +2.8%, CCJ +1.7% (ticking higher).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: HL +1.9%, SCCO +1.7%, FCX +1.5%, AEM +1.2%, IAG +1.1%, GOLD +1.0%, BHP +0.7%, SLV +0.7%.

    Other news: BPAX +12.6% (BioSante Pharmaceuticals reports positive LibiGel safety data in Phase III program), HERO +10.5% (Seahawk Drilling Hercules Offshore signs purchase agreement to acquire assets of Seahawk Drilling), ACUR +10.1% (ticking higher; Acura Pharma NDA accepted for filing with a priority review classification), OPWV +8.5% (announced that JNPR has selected the co as a strategic partner to integrate its Media Optimizer into JNPR's Media Flow solution for mobile video optimization), PDLI +4.8% (scheduled to present at BIO investor conference today at 11:30am ET), LLNW +3.3% (scheduled to report earnings after the close), TTM +3.2% (traded higher overseas following earnings), CS +2.3% (discloses agreements to issue an aggregate of CHF 5.9 bln Tier 1 Buffer Capital Notes ), ARMH +1.9% (still checking), MOTR +1.5% (Carl Icahn discloses 15.7% stake in 13G filing), NVO +1.5% (seeing modest strength on Copenhagen newspaper article out over the weekend suggesting the co increased its insulin market share), MGIC +1.1% (announced a partnership with CD Group; initiated with a Mkt Outperform at Rodman & Renshaw), CSCO +0.9% (introduces MOVE solutions for service providers to monetize and optimize the mobile video experience ), BWLD +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: PWER +3% (initiated with Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), EXPE +2.1% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna), MTW +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert Baird), ANF +1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo).
  • MGM Resorts (MGM) prelim ($0.29), may not compare to the ($0.22) Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $1.47 bln vs $1.50 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Analüütikud valdavalt positiivsed ja targetid $18 tasemel, tuleks vaadata veidi lähemalt. Mulle tundub, et siin võib olla turu jaoks pettumuse ainet.
  • Gapping down:
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KVHI -7.6% (thinly traded), CTRP -4.6%, HAUP -3.7%, MGM -2.1%.

    M&A news: EMS -10.9% (to be acquired for $64.00 in cash per share by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice), HUGH -3.7% (to be acquired by EchoStar, downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: DB -2.3%, STD -2.2%, BCS -2.1%, LYB -1.7%, NBG -1.5%, PUK -1.2%, HBC -1.1%, ING -1.1%, UBS -0.5%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: HDY -2.9%, SSN -2.7%, RDS.A -1.3%, BEXP -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Accumulate at Global Hunter), TOT -1.0%, E -0.7%.

    Other news: HAWK -25.3% (selling assets for cash consideration of $25 mln, which will be used primarily to pay off co's Debtor-in-Possession loan, which co has secured in connection with its bankruptcy; downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Wells Fargo, downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Global Hunter ), GMCR -4.4% (reports that SBUX will enter single-serve market), NOK -3.8% (continued weakness; downgraded by multiple analysts), JOE -3% (Fairholme Capital Mgmt, in SC 13D/A, discloses that Bruce Berkowitz and Charles Fernandez have withdrawn their names from consideration to serve on the Issuer's slate of directors), XOMA -2.5% (files a $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering), ENER -2.2% (filed for a $500 mln mixed shelf offering), BUD -2.1% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: GME -3.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), WRES -3.4% (downgraded to Neutral at Pritchard), LEN -2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), AXTI -2% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), PT -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Macquarie), WMT -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), PNRA -0.7% (downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James).
  • Täna on J.P. Morgani analüütikud väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) kohta.
    JPM alandab WMT reitingu „osta“ pealt „hoia“ peale ja hinnasihi $59 pealt $54 peale.

    Why today? Three critical points behind the downgrade. First, we’ve become increasingly concerned that the company’s recent SSS deterioration in the U.S. could be a secular problem that could last multiple years – not just a few quarters – to correct. To this end, recent Nielsen (FDMw) data suggests significant market share erosion across a number of consumable categories (e.g., CSDs, bottled water, salty snacks, milk, cereal) in recent months – an indication to us that traffic remains elusive. In fact, it’s plausible that Wal-Mart has alienated/confused its core shopper over the past couple of years as it shifted from one strategy (e.g., removal of Action Alley, heavy price investment, and SKU reductions) to another (Project “Unwind,” heavier inventory presence, etc.). Second, we feel Wal-Mart’s overall response to heightened competition from both the niche grocers and dollars stores has been inadequate. In other words, we think the company is moving too slowly and missing a big opportunity during today’s challenging economic times to solidify its positioning.

    Analüütikud põhjendavad oma reitingumuutust esiteks: muret tekitab firma SSS (same stores sales) hiljutine halvenemine USA-s. Nende arvates võib see olla pikaaegne probleem . Lisaks sellele näitab hiljutine uuring, et turuosa on mitmes kaubakategoorias vähenemas (pudelivesi, soolased snäkid, piim jt). Teiseks usuvad analüütikud, et firma ei tegele intensiivselt oma konkurentidega ning jätab kasutamata palju võimalusi oma positsiooni kindlustamiseks.

    Importantly, while our call is not directly related to the company’s 4Q print next week (2/22/11), we don’t think Wal-Mart had a great holiday season and, if anything, believe the comp trend became sequentially worse as the quarter progressed.

    Lisaks eelnevale ütlevad analüütikud, et kuigi antud reitingumuutus pole otseses seoses firma neljanda kvartali tulemustega, siis arvavad nad sellegipoolest, et WMT-l polnud just kõige parem pühadekvartal.

    Selle call`i puhul teeb mind ettevaatlikuks asjaolu, et eelmisel nädalal sai WMT UBS-lt downgrade`i, mille peale aktsia ka korralikult alla müüdi. Täna tekib küsimus, et kas aktsiasse on hetkel veel downside`i jäänud? Turu toetus kuluks kindlasti ära.

    Hetkel kaupleb WMT eelturul $55,20 peal ehk 0,9% miinuspoolel.

  • Investing With Blind Faith
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/14/2011 9:07 AM EST

    Faith means belief in something concerning which doubt is theoretically possible.
    -- William James

    Sometimes blind faith is the best investment approach. Those who have looked for reasons why this market shouldn't continue to go straight up has been punished for their lack of confidence. The bulls who haven't flinched and have ignored all the reasons why the market shouldn’t continue to act in such a lopsided way, have been amply rewarded.

    For most individuals contemplating this market, the question that comes automatically to mind is this: "How much longer can this uptrend last?" Unfortunately, that has been exactly the wrong question to ask because the answer is a whole lot longer than just about anyone thinks is possible. This market doesn’t care what we may think is reasonable behavior.

    It has been a waste of time to even contemplate all the reasons this market should rest. Seasonality, sentiment, technicals and even fundamentals have all proven useless. The revolution in Egypt resulted in the market going up after one day of selling. It is a Teflon market that is unaffected by any potential negatives.

    Even many bulls are becoming weary of this market. They are making money, but it is becoming increasingly difficult to continue to buy stocks that have done nothing but go straight up. It certainly makes you worry about what price we will pay in the future for such action.

    Rather than go on and on about how remarkable this action has been, the much more important issue is how do we deal with it? Avoiding the top-calling game is a must. Trying to anticipate when this market is going to turn has been deadly. The perverse thing is that the longer it runs and the more extended it becomes, the more inclined market players are to call for a reversal. Someone is going to be right one of these days but given how dangerous it has been to look for a market turn, it hardly seems worth the risk.

    The best approach for this market is to try to set aside your skepticism as much as possible and just embrace the trend. If we stay watchful we can reverse our positions in a timely fashion once real weakness finally does set in. It is like scaling a mountain. The higher we go the more dangerous it becomes. But if we stay cautious and appreciate what could happen if we slip, then we will be better prepared to deal with it when problems finally do occur.

    I continue to deal with this market by making some sales into strength and then looking for more longs that set up. I would be better off to just have faith but I can’t shake my doubts about how much longer this will continue – even though I keep preaching that we shouldn’t worry too much about it. Knowing what we should do and actually doing it are two very different things.

    We are seeing some mixed action to start the day, including some downgrades of Wal-Mart (WMT) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) . But China had some good news on slowing inflation and the resolution in Egypt is a positive for now.

    The market keeps shaking off any early weakness, so I'll be watching for late weakness as an indication that we might see a change in its tone. Until that happens, the search for more long positions will continue.

    At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned.
  • palun I’ll asendada arusaadava tähekombinatsiooniga
  • eeldan, et seal peaks olema ülakoma kuigi originaalis on see täpselt selliselt avaldatud
  • The Fed purchased $1.50 bln of 2013-2040 TIPS through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $5.83 bln
  • Nagu graafikult näha, ei olnud WMT-s tänaseks väga palju downside ruumi enam alles jäänud ja lisaks sellele polnud ka turg toetamas. Aktsia avanes $55,26 peal ning alates avanemisest on aktsia vaikselt küll allapoole liikunud, käies ära ka $55,85 peal, kuid hetkeks on jõudnud tagasi $55,10 kanti, kaubeldes 1% miinuspoolel.

  • Soovitan lugeda Business Insider`s ilmunud artiklit "How Stevie Cohen changed my life", mis on kirjutatud James Altucheri poolt, kes on nii investor, kaupleja kui ka kirjanik ühes isikus.
    Artikkel räägib sellest, kuidas aastaid tagasi üritas Altucher pääseda tööle Steve Coheni juurde, kes oli ja on ka praegu üks edukaimaid investoreid ja kauplejaid. Cohen juhib riskifondi SAC Capital ning just sinna üritas 2004. aastal oma jala ukse vahele saada James Altucher.
    Huvitav ja mõnevõrra üllatava lõpuga lugu, millest võiks igaühel ka nii mõndagi õppida olla.
  • Ag commodities begin to sell-off in a delayed reaction to the USDA Baseline Projections report; corn -6 cents at $7.005/bu, wheat -15.75 cents at $8.7275/bu and soybeans -6 cents at $14.10/bu
  • Tänane käive turul ikka väga madal, 30 minutit enne lõppu: NYSE total traded volume stood @ 595M vs. 10d avg. (932M), & 50d avg. (984.5M).
  • Apollo Group: Maverick Capital announces 6.4% stake in 13G filing

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