Börsipäev 23. veebruar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 23. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Sentiment on täna Aasias jäänud valdavas osas negatiivseks, kuid 0,3% plusspoolele kauplevad USA futuurid võiksid viidata kergele hingetõmbele. Paljuski jääb siiski sõltuma edasistest arengustest MENA riikides, kus Liibüa valitseja lubas eile protestijatega kuni oma sumani võidelda.

    Tänase makrokalendri fookuses on Inglise keskpanga jaanuari kohtumise protokoll (kell 11.30), eurotsooni detsembrikuu tööstustellimuste number (kell 12.00) ja USA jaanuari olemasolevate majade müük (kell 17.00)
  • WSJ kirjutab, et Portugal võib päästmist paluda juba järgmisel kuul:
    Some European officials are quietly discussing contingencies for what might be a Portuguese request for financial aid as early as next month, when the highly indebted country begins facing large-scale debt redemptions.

    "The feeling is that it can't go without a bailout beyond March or April at the latest and is already under pressure by countries like Germany to ask for help, to get it so the situation in the euro zone becomes more clear," a senior euro-zone government official said. Some Portuguese officials are privately considering the possibility, this official said.
  • Risto - kuidas võlakirja yieldid on?
  • Erilist reaktsiooni ei ole, 10-aastase yield on täna +4,3 bp 7,494% peal, kuid siiski kõikide aegade tipu lähedal.
  • Eurotsooni uued tööstustellimused tulid detsembris +2,1% vs oodatud -1,0% (M/M). Aastane kasv 18,5% vs oodatud 16,2%. Euro on päevasest tipust $1,3733 tasemelt tulnud allapoole ja kaupleb hetkel $1,3698 juures (+0,37%).
  • Inglismaa keskpanga viimase kohtumise protokollidest selgus, et Andrew Sentance ja Martin Weale on saanud intressimäärade tõstmist pooldavate keskpanga liikmete hulka ka Spencer Dale'i. Hääled jagunesid viimasel kohtumisel seega 5-3-1, kus enamus pooldasid praegusel kursil jätkamist ja Adam Posen pooldab endiselt stiimulprogrammi mahu suurendamist. Naelsterling saavutas päevasisese tipu $1,6272 tasemel, kuid on hetkel kauplemas 50 punkti madalamal.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NDSN +14.0%, ZLC +8.9%, CNO +8.3%, HLF +5.8%, DDS +5.1%, SBLK +4.5%, TOL +3.6%, CHK +2.3%, DTV +1.0%.

    M&A news: DEP +35.1% (Duncan Energy receives buyout offer from Enterprise Products Partners; represents a value of $42.00 for each Duncan Energy Partners common unit).

    A few financial names showing strength: LYG +2.6%, DB +2.3%, UBS +1.7%, HBC +1.4%, CS +1.3%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: SVM +1.7%, HL +1.7%, GG +1.6%, SLW +1.3%, PAAS +1.2%, ABX +1.2%, EGO +1.0%.

    Rare earth names lifting in premarket trade: AVL +6.7%, MCP +1.3%, REE +0.7%

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: APA +4.1% (Concerns over Egypt are overblown; growth is on track - Oppenheimer), MRO +2.1%, APC +2.0%, VLO +1.4%, CVX +1.4%, WFT +1.4%, RIG +1.3%, COP +1.2%, SU +1.2%, HAL +1.1%.

    Other news: SNSS +25.1% (trading under SNSSD; Sunesis Pharma receives FDA fast track designation for Vosaroxin in AML), VRTX +21.4% (reports data from Phase 3 study of VX-770; improvements in lung function were observed through week 24), BDCO +12.3% (continued strength), OCLR +6.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CTIC +4.8% (reports updated results of Phase II study of OPAXIO; reports higher rates of pathological complete response in patients with advanced esophageal cancer), SOMX +3.4% (receives notice of allowance for patent application relating to pharmacokinetics of silenor), APOL +0.6% (discloses there were no significant adverse findings in the University of Phoenix DOE program review).

    Analyst comments: YOKU +7.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), AKS +3.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc), AMAT +2.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray).
  • Vertex Pharm (VRTX) trading 20% higher following data from Phase 3 study

  • So, Now What?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/23/2011 8:44 AM EST

    The wise adapt themselves to circumstances, as water moulds itself to the pitcher
    -- Chinese proverb

    After the worst day of selling since November, is the market undergoing a change in character, or is this just another one-day stumble that will quickly be forgotten?

    There is no question that we had some very severe selling yesterday. Breadth was very poor, volume was heavy and the point loss was big. It wasn't just a minor bout of profit-taking in a technically extended market, and we'd be remiss if we didn't have a heightened level of caution after that action.

    Of course, any sort of caution has been a losing strategy in this market for so long that it actually feels a little ridiculous to even contemplate it. The nature of this market since the low in March 2009 has been to turn back up and immediately recover just when it looks like it is on the brink of collapse. The dip-buyers have consistently done extremely well, and if you have been spooked by an ugly bout of selling, you will quickly be poorly positioned in this one-way market.

    The big difference this time is that there is a much higher level of uncertainty about the news flow. We just don't know what is going to happen in Libya, and there is a danger that the unrest in the Middle East will spread to other key oil-exporting countries. When the market has a lack of clarity, buyers tend to stay on the sidelines, and that makes us vulnerable to further correction. We've shrugged off any and all negatives for a very long time, but we now have a situation that is much more problematic -- especially if crude oil continues to rise sharply.

    The fact that we are so technically extended doesn't help either. The consistency of the rise since November is simply amazing. There was very little volatility along the way; the downside of that is that there is little underlying support. We just have a whole lot of folks who have some good-sized gains to protect and few obvious areas of support. Locking in gains hasn't been a very prudent strategy for a long time, but if we don't immediately bounce back like we've done so often, it is going to be much more tempting to take the money and move to the sidelines.

    If a downtrend is going to develop, we should see a series of bounce attempts that fizzle out as nervous bulls exit into the strength and aggressive shorts reload. Stay particularly focused on the recent lows. Stops will be set at those levels, and a "lower low" is going to help convince market players that a change in market character is occurring. The key level for the S&P 500 is 1312.33. If we breach that level, look for selling to accelerate again.

    If you haven't already taken some defensive steps, it is not too late to consider some moves. It may turn out to be a poor move, but it is far more important to protect capital at this point than to blindly hope we immediately recover. There was some damage done yesterday, and that demands our attention. If the market flies back up, we'll have to adjust yet again.

    My foremost goal is to make sure I keep my accounts as close to their highs as possible. There is nothing more unproductive than having to make up losses. If you are very stubborn about giving back gains, you will be in great shape no matter what this market might do.

    We have a little bounce to start the day but so far it is fairly mild. The key will be to see how hard the sellers hit a positive open and then whether we hold above yesterday's low. Stay cautious; risks are high.
  • Fitch reports Irish Senior Bank Debt Risks Tightly Linked to Sovereign Risk
  • January Existing Home Sales 5.36 mln vs 5.23 mln Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +2.7%
  • FDIC releases Quarterly Banking Profile for Q4... number of institutions on "Problem List" increased from 860 to 884 in the fourth quarter
  • CBOE Holdings spikes to fresh highs on heavy intraday volume
  • Tänase Thestreet.com veebilehe vahendusel võib lugeda Doug Kass`i väga huvitavat artkilit pealkirjaga "Takeovers Could Take Us Under".
    Kass väidab, et tema arvates on viimase ajal M&A aktiivsuse suurenemine märk sellest, et me oleme üsna tõusutsükli lõpus. Üldjuhul seostatakse ülevõtmiste aktiivsust majanduse paranemisega, kuna viitab sellele, et ollakse riskilatimad, tuleviku suhtes kindlamad ning ka laenuturg on vabam.
    Kass aga ütleb, et need argumendid peavad küll paika, kuid samamoodi on ajalugu näidanud, et sektori/firma populaaruse tipp saabub koos ülevõtuseeriaga.
  • Ebix (EBIX) lifting in recent trade; Hearing initiated with Buy at Craig-Hallum
  • Ok, me oleme tõusu tipus, kuid mis asi see on, mis tõusnud on sedavõrd nagu aktsiad 2008 sügise tasemele? Internet bubble, housing market bubble, stock market bubble?? Ülevõtmised võivad olla ka märk sellest, et mingi asi on liiga odav, et seda mitte turult ära võtta nagu baltis olid ETLAT ja NRM1T. Ka minu arust on aktsiad viimase aastaga majandusest liiga palju ees olnud, kuid mullist rääkida on ehk vara...

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