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Börsipäev 24. veebruar

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  • Head vabariigi aastapäeva!
    Tallinna börs on täna suletud, muudel turgudel toimub tavapärane kauplemine.
    Makro poolelt avaldatakse täna kell 12:00 eurotsooni majanduse ja tarbija kindlustunde indikaatorid. USA-st on tulemas kell 15:30 initial ja continuing claims ja jaanuari kestvuskaupade tellimused.
  • Head vabariigi aastapäeva ka minu poolt!

    Tänane Wall Street Journal kirjutab Motorola uuest tahvelarvutist Xoom, mis nüüd lõpuks ka turule jõudis.
    Artikli autori sõnul on Xoom`i näol tegemist esimese tõsiselt võetava konkurendiga Apple`i iPadile.
    Autor Walter S. Mossberg on Motorola tahvelarvutit ka testinud ning artiklist saab lugeda detailsemalt uue toote plussidest ja miinustest.
  • IMAX reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $0.21 per share, in-line with the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.21; revenues rose 27.7% year/year to $69.2 mln vs the $60.8 mln consensus.

    Ka IMAX täna tulemustega väljas ja aktsia on hetkel eelturul 8% üleval.
  • General Motors prelim $0.31 vs $0.46 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $36.9 bln vs $33.00 bln Thomson Reuters consensus.

    GM käibe osas ületas ootusi, kuid EPS seevastu jääb konsenuse ootusele oluliselt alla.
    Aktsia kaupleb hetkel eelturul sisuliselt muutusteta ehk 0,2% miinuspoolel ( $34,51)
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TORM +15.5% (thinly traded), ISIG +12.5% (announces approval of a $2.00 special dividend and $15 mln stock repurchase plan), PPO +12.1%, NTES +11.5% (also upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), MTZ +10.8%, FCN +9.2%, ICLK +8.1% (light volume), PCLN +5.4%, LKQX +4.2%, CCC +4.1%, IPI +3.7%, CNK +3.4% (ticking higher), WBMD +3.1%, AUY +2.1%, KAR +1.7%, (light volume), NEM +1.4%.

    M&A news: SMSC +0.8% (Conexant agrees to be acquired by Golden Gate Capital for $2.40 per share in cash and terminates merger agreement with SMSC).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: NG +2.9%, MGN +1.5%, HL +1.2%, GG +1.2%, ABX +1.1%, IAG +0.9%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: DPTR +4.3%, SU +2.7%, EGY +2.2%, WFT +1.8%, CHK +1.5%, COP +1.1%, SD +1.0%, CVX +0.9%, XOM +0.9%.

    Other news: ROYL +19.0% (continued strength; received regulatory approval to commence production on the Goddard #2 well; well was immediately placed into production and is currently producing at a rate of approximately 10,000 MCF per day), BDCO +11.0% (continued strength), KOG +6.6% (announces record year-end 2010 proved reserves quantities and reported record production and sales volumes for the quarter and year ended December 31, 2010), THOR +3.7% (still checking, filed 10-K prior to close yesterday), FRO +3.2% (still checking), NOG +2.8% (will replace Navigant Consulting in the S&P MidCap 400), EXPE +1.1% (trading higher with PCLN).

    Analyst comments: FLR +2.9% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital Markets), MMYT +1.7% (initiated with a Buy at Kaufman Bros).
  • MMYT peaks olema samas sektoris Pricelinega
  • January Durable Orders ex-trans -3.6% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +3.0% from +0.8%
    January Durable Goods +2.7% vs +2.7% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to -0.4% from -2.3%
    Initial Claims 391K vs 410K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 413K from 410K
    Continuing Claims falls to 3.790 mln from 3.935 mln
  • Täna on J.P. Morgan väljas negatiivse reitingumuutusega Red hat Inc. (RHT) kohta.
    JPM alandab RHT reitingu „hoia“ pealt „müü“ peale koos $32 hinnasihiga.

    Significant positive inflection in FCF growth unlikely. We believe that drivers of such an inflection have largely already occurred for the Linux business and Middleware, with little resulting improvement, and we view it as high risk to assume that it materializes for Virtualization.

    Inherent inefficiency in RHT’s sales model associated with an apparent higher cost of subscription renewals hinders incremental FCF, thereby diminishing anticipated economies of scale.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et vaba rahavoo kasv on lähitulevikus vägagi ebatõenäoline, kuna läbi Linuxi tootesegmendi saavutatud edu on juba aktsiahinda sisse arvestatud .

    Acquisition potential overblown. While anything can happen in the world of M&A, we do not believe that Red Hat is a natural acquisition target despite recent market speculation in Barron’s and ComputerWorld. We view its independence as a material part of its value, its price as too rich for disciplined acquirers, and its strategic value as partially offset by the inherently higher support cost for an OS versus other infrastructure software.

    Kuigi viimasel ajal on turul ringlenud mitmed kuulujutud RHT võimalikust ülevõtust, siis analüütikud peavad ka selle võimaluse realiseerumist ebatõenäoliseks juba aktsia liiga kõrge valuatsiooni tõttu.

    Attractive stability and execution. Management has executed admirably through the economic downturn and the ensuing recovery, and it does an exemplary job of communicating with investors. In addition, RHT is unlikely to miss expectations, given its highly recurring subscription model, and it has less exposure to potential negative macro forces in Europe than many Software companies. But we do not believe these positives justify the current price.

    Analüütikud hindavad kõrgelt firma juhtkonna oskuslikku juhtimisstiili läbi majanduslanguse ning on teinud investoritega suhtlemisel suurepärast tööd. Tõenäoliselt ei jää firma konsensuse ootustele alla, aga analüütikud on veendunud, et need positiivsed faktorid on juba kõik hinnas sees.

    RHT puhul tuleks tähelepanu pöörata sellele, et viimase kahe päeva jooksul on aktsia juba 10% kukkunud seetõttu tuleks olla ettevaatlik. Ma ootaks avanemiseni ning sobivaks tasemeks peaks $40+.
    Hetkel kaupleb RHT 3% miinuspoolel, $39,30 juures.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: AXTI -10.3%, HNSN -10.3%, IDCC -8.2%, MGA -6.2% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), SAFM -5.8%, JACK -5.6% (light volume), FWLT -5.1%, UNTD -4.3%, GTI -4.2%, VSCP -3.9%, FIRE -1.9%, TS -1.5% (light volume), SDRL -1.1%, WLL -0.8% (light volume).

    A few airline names are under pressure in early trade: DAL -2.5%, UAL -1.9%, AMR -1.9%, LCC -1.8%,

    Other news: SLXP -20.4% (anticipates receipt of FDA Complete Response Letter on XIFAXAN 550 mg tablets supplemental new drug application), CLMT -5.1% (announces public offering of 4.5 mln common shares), ETFC -3.3% (announces secondary offering of 23,950,000 shares of common stock by an Affiliate of Citadel LLC), NCI -2.2% (MidCap 400 constituent Navigant Consulting will replace Genoptix in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), LULU -1.6% (ticking lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade).

    Analyst comments: RHT -3.9% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), DEP -2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC).

  • Finally, a Market for the Nimble
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/24/2011 8:51 AM EST

    Fashion fades; only style remains the same.
    -- Coco Chanel

    For the first time since November, the market did not immediately rebound after a day of selling. Unlike on Jan. 21 (after the Egyptian scare), the market remained concerned about the unrest in the Middle East and spiraling oil prices. Crude is solidly above $100 this morning and speculation is growing about the consequences if other oil-producing countries start to see a popular uprising.

    When the market is making the sort of straight-up move we have seen since November, the best approach is to simply buy and hold. When there is little volatility to navigate, active trading doesn't provide much of an edge. That is changing now, as we are finally seeing some downside action that has quickly wiped out weeks of gains.

    With some signs in the air that the market is undergoing a possible change of character, it is good time to be very clear about your investment approach. There has been a lot of pressure to turn into a buy-and-hold investor lately, and now is the time to determine whether you want to stick with that approach or whether you want to be more flexible and opportunistic.

    The problem with active trading is that when the market goes straight up and there are few pullbacks, you are going to find yourself underinvested quite often. The real benefit of active trading tends to occur when you outperform substantially when there is market weakness. That is where you tend to more than make up for any underperformance you may have had when the market is strong.

    Underinvested longs have gained a lot of ground relative to the fully invested bulls the last two days, and now the goal is to keep it that way. That means being more aggressive in playing and fading bounces that develop, especially if you think this market is going to continue to see more mixed action as international events unfold.

    The key point I'm making is that at this stage it is very important to have clarity about your market approach. Many traders have hated this one-way market for a long time; they may have been tempted to just load up and ride the trend to the moon. It now looks like it may not be that easy, and it is important to return to the trading mindset that works well when there is more normal volatility.

    As I've said before, we have to watch for failed bounces. The nature of the market has been for the bounces to just keep going, and that action has been very challenging. The market is now conditioned for that sort of action, so the dip-buyers are more likely to keep pushing when they do have some upside going, but that creates the potential for some very ugly downside if they find themselves suddenly trapped in a failed bounce.

    Consider your strategy here and how you want to deal with a market that is showing some signs of change in behavior. This is the point at which you can gain a substantial advantage if you handle it right.

    We have some slight weakness and not much reaction to the economic news this morning. It is all about oil this morning, but you have to be a little worried when a trade is that obvious. Be careful out there.
  • Hommikul sai öeldud, et RHT-d võiks vaadata üle $40 taseme, aga paraku ei eeldanud ma, et aktsia ostetakse $41-ni välja. Aktsia lõpuks küll kukkus, kuid kahjuks natuke liiga hilja. Hetkel kaupleb RHT 1,5% miinuspoolel,$40 kandis.

  • Toyota kutsub USAs kontrolli 2.17 miljonit sõidukit. Põhjuseks oht, et antud sõidukite gaasipedaalid võivad põrandamattide taha kinni jääda. Samal põhjuse kutsuti autosid tagasi ka 2009. aastal. Alates 2009. aastast on Toyota ohutusprobleemide tõttu üle maailma tagasi kutsunud 14 miljonit sõidukit. (link)
  • American Trucking Association (ATA) teatas, et veoautode transpordi mahuindeks tõusis jaanuaris 3.8%, mis märgib kõrgeimat taset alates 2008. aasta jaanuarist. Detsembris kasvas mahuindeks 2.5%, võrreldes aastataguse ajaga oli tõus 8%. ATA peaökonomist Bob Costello oli tulemusega väga rahul, eriti arvestades seda, et jaanuaris valmistasid mitmes piirkonnas raskusi rängad lumetormid. Costello ootab käesoleva aasta esimeses pooles veomahtude suurenemist, kuid ohuks võib saada viimasel ajal tõusnud nafta hind, mistõttu võivad tarbijate kulutused väheneda. (link)
  • St. Louis Fedi president James Bullard ütles täna, et "never say never regarding possibility of QE3". Bullardi sõnul on inflatsiooniootused tõusnud, mida võib tema hinnangul pidada QE2 eduks.
  • * FLASH: U.S. government has no reason to believe that Gaddafi is dead -official

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