Börsipäev 25. veebruar - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 25. veebruar

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  • Tänase päeva makrokalendrit vaadates tõusevad esile kolm olulisemat sündmust: kell 11.30 avalikustatakse Suurbritannia neljanda kvartali revideeritud SKT muutus, mille osas ootab konsensus marginaalset paranemist -0,5% pealt -0,4% peale; kell 15.30 teatatakse aga USA neljanda kvartali SKT muutuse revideeritud hinnang ning siin ootab konsensus samuti tõstmist 3,2% pealt 3,3% peale; kell 16.55 avalikustatakse Michigani ülikooli tarbijausalduse veebruarikuu indeksi lõplik näit.

    Euroopa on avanenud pärast Aasia positiivset sessiooni kõrgemal ning USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad samuti hetkel 0,3-0,5% plussis.
  • Boeing (BA) sai eile $35 miljardi suuruse tellimuse USA õhujõududelt 179 tankerlennuki ehitamiseks. Leping on üks ajaloo suurimaid ning loob hinnanguliselt 50 000 uut töökohta. Kauaoodatud otsusele eelnes Boeingu ja EADSi poolt miljonite dollarite kulutamine reklaamile ja lobitööle. Esimesed 18 lennukit peaks valmima 2017. aastaks. (link)
  • Kreeka, Iirimaa, Portugali ja Hispaania võla kindlustamine on terve veebruari kallinenud:

  • Suurbritannia QoQ SKT kasv revideeriti vastupidiselt ootustele hoopis allapoole -0,5%-lt -0,6% peale.
  • Naelsterling UK tulemuste peale surve all: hetkel kaubeldakse 0,15% miinuspoolel $1,6114 taseme juures.
  • Šveitsi KOF juhtiv indeks tuli veebruaris 2,18 vs oodatud 2,06 punkti. Šveitsi frank on täna oma kaks nädalat kestnud rallist taandumas - täna keskööl tegi USDCHF uue kõikide aegade põhja 0,9227 tasemel - ja kaupleb USA dollari suhtes 0,29% madalamal 0,9288 juures.
  • Ja naelsterling jätkab oodatust kehvemate SKT näitajate mõjul langust, kaubeldes hetkel 0,4% miinuspoolele $1,6073 juures.
  • Londoni börsil on tehniliste probleemide tõttu kauplemine peatatud.
  • Pärast 25 nädala pikkust perioodi vajus bullish nägemusega USA väikeinvestorite osakaal esimest korda alla ajaloolise keskmise (39%), kukkudes 9,9 protsendipunkti 36,6% peale. Samal ajal aga kasvas karude osakaal 10,7 protsendipunkti 27,2%-ni
  • Russia Central Bank raises key refi rate 25 bps to 8%; raises reserve requirements by 50 bps
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: OVTI +17.4% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), ACOM +9.5%, SVNT +8.9%, SD +8.3% (also signs agreement to sell certain New Mexico properties for $200 million), CRM +8.2%, CROX +7.2%, BOOM +6.1%, MENT +6%, DECK +5.2%, TRLG +4.7%, TI +4.4% (discloses updated 2011-2013 plan), SMSI +3.6%, JCP +2.7%, ESL +2.6%, ADSK +2%, AIG +1%, GPS +0.9% (also announces new $2 bln share repurchase authorization and plans to increase dividend 13% for 2011 to $0.40 per share annually), GG +0.7%.

    M&A related: DLIA +19.4% (lifting in premarket trade following NYTimes.com story that the co is on the auction block).

    Select financial related names showing strength: FITB +3.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at FBR Capital), WFC +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; also adds it to their Conviction Buy List ), SNV +2.0%, KEY +1.8%, DB +1.7%, UBS +1.4%, BAC +1.2% (Excess capital indicates dividends and buybacks are on the way; tgt to $17 - FBR Capital Mkts), HBAN +1.1%, JPM +0.9%.

    Mortgage insurers ticking higher following AIG and FNMA/FMCC results: PMI +1.7%, RDN +1.3%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: PAL +5.4%, MDW +3.6%, SLW +2.2%, SSRI +2.0%.

    Select oil/gas related names modestly rebounding: ROYL +4.2% (continued strength), KOG +2.7%, NBL +2.3%, OXY +1.2%, WFT +1.1%, RIG +1.0%, CHK +0.9%.

    A few casino/gaming names trading modestly higher: MGM +1.3%, WYNN +1.2%, LVS +1%.

    Other news: ALAN +37.9% (Orbcomm acquire Alanco's StarTrak Business for a total consideration of $19.7 mln), BCRX +10.3% (Awarded Additional $55.0 Million by the U.S. Department of Health & Human Services to Complete Peramivir Phase 3 Program), BA +3.3% (awarded a $3.5 bln contract through the Dept. of Defense), GTLS +2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), ARMH +1.1% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), SKT +0.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: CBOE +3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), FFIV +2.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital).
  • Q4 GDP- Second Estimate +2.8% vs +3.3% Briefing.com consensus; prelim +3.2%
    Q4 GDP Deflator- Second Estimate +0.4% vs +0.3% Briefing.com consensus; prelim +0.3%
  • Goldman Sachs on täna väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Wells Fargo (WFC) kohta.
    Goldman Sachs tõstab WFC reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $36 pealt $38 peale ning ühtlasi tõstab aktsia ka Conviction Buy nimekirja.

    We upgrade WFC to CL-Buy (from Neutral) as (1) WFC has had the most consistent core PPOP trends (with potential for positive operating leverage given stabilizing expenses), (2) credit reached an inflection point in 4Q2010 (3) WFC could surprise to the upside with both a dividend and buyback, and (4) the recent sell-off given speculation around the CFO departure presents an attractive entry point. Moreover, 10-K signoff next week should ease investor fears over financial reporting issues.

    Muu hulgas põhjendavad analüütikud reitingumuutust võimalikku positiivse üllatusega dividendide ning aktsiate tagasiostu osas ja ütlevad, et seoses firma CFO lahkumisega kuu alguses on aktsiat müügisurve all olnud ning usuvad, et langus pakub investoritele atraktiivset ostuvõimalust.

    WFC’s shares have underperformed our coverage by almost 500 bp since the CFO resigned on February 8, 2011. While uncertainty remains around the cause of his departure, we are confident that his departure is not related to Wells’ financial reporting or accounting practices. The press release highlighting his departure explicitly noted that the “retirement is unrelated to the company’s financial condition or financial reporting”. Given this stance, we believe that the current valuation presents an attractive entry point for investors.

    FCO lahkumise põhjused on endiselt veel üsna salapärased, kuid firma kinnitab, et sel pole midagi tegemist ettevõtte finantsolukorra või majandustulemustega ja seetõttu soovitavad analüütikud investoritel olukorda ära kasutada.

    WellsFargo CFO ootamatu lahkumine tekitas investorite seas veebruari alguses väikese paanika, kuna tekkis kahtlus, et see võib ka põhjustada majandustulemuste teatamise hilinemise ning täna on Goldman Sacshi analüütikud olukorda silumas. Arvan, et turuosalised võtavad Goldmani analüütikute soovitust täna ka kuulda.

    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $32,26 kandis, 2,6% plusspoolel.

  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NTRI -27.2% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard), MDAS -24.5% (also downgraded by multiple analysts including Stifel, Deutsche Bank, ThinkEquity, Madison Williams, Piper, Citigroup, William Blair), NVTL -15.1% (also downgraded to Accumulate from Buy at Craig Hallum), LYG -3.3%, FSLR -3.1% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), HANS -1.6%, TC -0.6%, DWA -0.4%, .

    Other news: PLX -27.9% (receives from FDA a Complete Response Letter regarding co's New Drug Application for taliglucerase alfa for the treatment of Gaucher disease; FDA requests additional data), NAK -14.3% (still checking, reported Feb 23 after the close assessment technical report for pebble copper-gold-molybdenum project in Southwest Alaska), BCON -14.3% (will trade under BCOND; announces a 1-for-10 reverse stock split), LLNW -6% (announces that it and certain of its stockholders intend to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering), SRV -5% (commences a public offering of 3 mln common shares), IBIO -4.8% (still checking), WTW -2.2% (weakness attributed to block share trade).

    Analyst comments: CSTR -1.6% (light volume; downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).

  • How to Make Out a Shopping List
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/25/2011 8:43 AM EST

    Jumping at several small opportunities may get us there more quickly than waiting for one big one to come along.
    -- Hugh Allen

    We have a good-sized bounce shaping up in the early going as the price of crude oil cools and some of the recent worries over Libya modulate. After three down days for the S&P 500 and DJIA, we are a bit oversold and ready for an oversold bounce. We also have the start of a new month next week, which has been consistently positive and is likely to cause some bullish positioning.

    Dip-buying has been too successful of a strategy for too long for the bulls to give up on, especially as we become technically oversold. We definitely did not come back as quickly this time, which is only going to help the intensity of the bounce once it does kick in.

    At this point we should be careful to treat a bounce as just that and not as a market recovery and a resumption of the uptrend. If the market really is undergoing a change a character, we'd expect to see a bounce just like this that sucks in some new money and squeezed overanxious bulls.

    The key will be whether the bounce can gain further momentum. We don't even have to go straight back up right away if we hold recent lows and establish a trading range. We just have to keep a very close watch on those lows and be ready to run for safety if they are breached.

    One of the most difficult things for momentum players to do when we are undergoing a correction like we are seeing now is to buy stocks that are pulling back. The nature of momentum trading is to buy strength with the anticipation that it will continue. Buying weakness in hopes of a reversal is just not part of the strategy, but that tends to leave you very underinvested when we do have one of those inevitable bounces. If you wait too long for the strength to build, then you run the risk of buying at the top of a failed bounce.

    My first step in trying to add some long inventory during a pullback is to develop a shopping list. I want to find stocks that have been in strong uptrends and are now correcting but have not completely broken down. I want to see patterns that are more indicative of sellers locking in some good gains rather than fleeing because there has been some fundamental change in the stock.

    Once I identify stocks that look like they are seeing technically healthy pullbacks, I want to look at fundamentals. The main thing I want to see is strong earnings and revenue growth relative to the P/E. This simply give the stock some additional underlying support. Corrections can always go deeper than you think, but if the numbers are there, then there will eventually be some bargain hunters.

    The next step is to take an initial position and put the stock on your radar screen. Every stock has its own personality, and it is important to watch and gain a feel for it. Is there a persistent seller at a certain price? Are there buyers showing up at key support levels?

    Once it is on the radar screen, you have to be mentally prepared to jump in at the right time. When a bounce kicks in and some upticks occur, you should be mentally prepared to act quickly and be much more aggressive with the trade. If it works, I'll look to make some partial sells into the strength and hold smaller amounts in hopes that the bounce will gain further steam.

    I have my eye on a few situations this morning and we'll see how they work after we open. We are ready for a bounce and there are lots of good stocks that have pulled back to support areas, so the key is going to be how hard the buyers are willing to push. It makes for some good trading, but don't forget that time frames will need to be short as the news risk remains very high.
  • February Michigan Sentiment- Final 77.5 vs 75.1 Briefing.com consensus; prelim 75.1
  • The Fed purchased $7.24 bln of 2018-2021 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $23.97 bln
  • WFC on täna päris hästi liikunud. Aktsia avanes $31,34 juurest ning on alates sealt ülespoole tiksunud kaubeldes nüüd $32,70 tasemel, 4% plusspoolel.

  • Fed's Lacker says recent growth hints at need to downshift QE2 - CNBC
  • JPMorgan outlook revised to stable from negative by S&P
  • Kuidas kommenteerida Telefonica tulemusi

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